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Drought maintained its grip on northwest Nebraska where a couple with a cow-calf operation opted to follow their drought plan by reducing their breeding season, selling some cattle and weaning calves to get them to market early. 1011 Now (Lincoln, Neb.), Oct. 17, 2022

Most of the crops planted on an urban Kansas City farm at the end of summer have not yet sprouted, costing the farm an estimated thousands of dollars, on top of the cost of crops lost during the summer. Some crops were planted three times. Those that germinated died from heat and drought. Other urban farmers had similar experiences and irrigated, leading to large water bills. Grasshoppers and other pests were more problematic than usual this year. Fall production losses may lead the farm to close early at the end of October rather than selling through Thanksgiving. KSHB-TV NBC 41 Kansas City (Mo.), Oct 14, 2022

The White River and Irving Peak Fires began after a lightning storm passed through the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest on August 11, 2022. The Minnow Ridge Fire cause is currently undetermined. These fires are burning on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest. The Irving Peak and White River fires are located approximately 15 miles northwest of Plain, WA. The Minnow Ridge fire is located near Chikamin Ridge, approximately 14 miles north of Plain, WA. Local resources and a Type 4 Incident Commander have taken over to finish out the remaining fire suppression activities on the White River, Irving Peak, Meander, and now Minnow Ridge fires. Due to rugged and steep terrain, fire managers implemented a long-term strategy to manage these fires, including the use of primary and contingency perimeter lines for containment. Tactics included completion and reinforcement of fire lines utilizing forest roads and constructed hand line. Firelines have successfully held, keeping the fire in the...

Firefighters in southeast Missouri have been very busy with high call volumes in the last few months, due to drought. WSIL-TV ABC 3 (Harrisburg, Ill.), Oct 15, 2022

Many trees in California’s forests were turning rust colored as another year of drought and bark beetles or other insects led to higher tree mortality. Trees were stressed from inadequate water and could not produce enough sap or pitch to defend themselves against insects. The 2021-22 winter was relatively warm and dry and allowed the bark beetles to continue reproducing and attacking the trees. A mass tree die-off occurred in 2016 when an estimated 62 million trees died. FOX 40 (Sacramento, Calif.), Oct 19, 2022

Some Goshen County livestock producers already grazed their winter pastures and were feeding hay. There were major sales of livestock and deep culling in herds. Calves were being weaned early due to the dry conditions. A fourth cutting of alfalfa was underway in irrigated fields. Kiowa County Press (Eads, Colo.), Oct 19, 2022

The Ursus Fire was reported on 8/25/2022 and confirmed on 8/31/2022. It is burning on the south side of Rapid Creek at the base of Ursus Hill, approximately 1.5 miles up the Rapid Creek drainage. The fire is located in the Bob Marshall Wilderness on the Spotted Bear Ranger District. The Ursus Fire originally showed primary growth to the east, but it has since reached the 2012 Elbow Pass burn scar which should act as a buffer to slow the spread of the fire in that direction. It was originally reported that the fire crossed the Continental Divide on the Helena-Lewis & Clark National Forest near Observation Pass, but a reconnaissance flight from the Rocky Mountain Ranger District on 9/7/2022 determined there was no observable fire east of the divide. As of 10/04/2022, no significant observable growth has been detected. A point/zone protection strategy will be implemented by the Spotted Bear Ranger District to protect both the Danaher and Basin Administrative Cabin sites, and to...

The Dean Creek Fire was detected on August 14th. It is burning in the Dean Creek drainage, located in the Bob Marshall Wilderness on the Spotted Bear Ranger District. The fire is burning on the lower third of the southeasterly facing slope approximately three miles up drainage from the junction with Spotted Bear River. The fire is currently most active on the southwest corner of the fire. As of 10/04/2022, no significant observable growth has been detected. The Spotted Bear Ranger District Wildland Fire Module (WFM) was inserted into the Pentagon Cabin Administrative site to conduct structure protection operations. As of the afternoon of 08/17/2022, the module completed wrapping the cabin and outlying buildings and installed hose lay and sprinklers which can be controlled by a remote-start pump. Due to high spread potential, a closure for the Dean Creek drainage is effective as of 08/19/2022. The official closure order and accompanying map has been posted. As of 10/04/2022, no...

The George Lake Fire was detected on September 6th, 2022. It is burning on the bottom of the slope at the northeast end of George Lake, located in the Bob Marshall Wilderness on the Spotted Bear Ranger District. As of 9/12/2022, the fire was 625 acres; heavy wide-spread smoke across the area affected the temperature and amount of solar radiation reaching the fire. As of 10/04/2022, no significant observable growth has been detected. The Spotted Bear Ranger District will continue to monitor the fire with reconnaissance and Infrared (IR) Mapping flights as resources allow. Due to the rocky terrain and lack of available fuels, no other actions are planned at this time. A point protection strategy will be implemented to protect values at risk should conditions change. An official closure order has been posted effective 9/9/2022. As of 10/04/2022, no additional updates will be made regarding the George Lake Fire unless significant new activity is

Many Suffolk County growers were able to water their crops adequately during the hot, droughty summer, but noted that production costs were much higher due to the need to irrigate heavily. Diesel and fertilizer, for instance, were much more expensive. One farmer raised his prices 15% to cover the extra costs. Some pumpkin varieties did not produce as much fruit this year. Blackberries were flowering during the high heat and did not get pollinated. The dry weather kept disease pressure low. Wine grapes thrived during the hot, dry summer and produced excellent grapes. The Suffolk Times (Mattituck, N.Y.), Oct 18, 2022

Barges remained stuck in Mississippi River ports from Minnesota to Mississippi and needed higher water to move. There were 150 barges loaded to regular depths with corn and soybeans at Greenville, Miss., that were unable to move out of the harbor or down river. Farmers were taking a financial hit as drought affects prices that they are getting for their grain, especially if they didn’t have anywhere to store the grain. Forecasters indicated that the river may not rise to safely navigable levels until late October or maybe the first week of November. Mississippi Public Broadcasting (Jackson, Miss.), Oct 19, 2022

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191748
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 19 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area
located a couple hundred miles south of the southern coast of
Mexico continues to become better organized. In addition, recent
satellite wind data indicates the circulation is becoming better
defined. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression is expected to form later
today or tonight as the system moves generally west-northwestward,
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the
southwestern and western coasts of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify across the western and central U.S. while an upper trough ejects into the Atlantic from the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow/Thursday. Widespread cool, dry, and stable low-level air will meander over the CONUS through the period, limiting thunderstorm development to the east-central Florida Peninsula coastline. These thunderstorms are most likely during the afternoon hours and are not anticipated to be severe. ..Squitieri.. 10/19/2022 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 19 16:59:01 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 19 16:59:01 UTC 2022.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z Expanded the Elevated delineation slightly farther north across eastern Wyoming and southwest South Dakota based on morning forecast guidance. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast appears on track. ..Bentley.. 10/19/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across portions of the central High Plains. This threat will largely be driven by a weak upper-level disturbance over south-central Canada that is forecast to propagate southward through the Plains within a northerly flow regime. The low-level mass response ahead of the wave will result in breezy northwesterly winds across the central High Plains where fuels are fairly dry. Elsewhere across the CONUS, dry conditions will prevail as an unseasonably dry air mass lingers across the central U.S.; however, weak winds will generally limit additional concerns. ...Central High Plains... Early-morning surface observations show dry conditions across southeast WY into northeast CO with dewpoints in the 20s. While this region is on the periphery of the driest air to the east, increasing northwest winds will support downslope warming/drying this afternoon. RH reductions down to 15-25% are expected with sustained winds between 15-25 mph (gusting to 30 mph at times). A swath of elevated wind/RH conditions is expected across the region with periods of critical conditions probable for southeast WY into parts of the NE Panhandle and far northeast CO. Consideration was given for a Critical risk area, but somewhat poor ensemble consensus on the duration and coverage of these conditions precluded an upgrade. Regardless, recent fuel analyses show adequately dry fuels with ERC values above seasonal average (generally in the 80-90th percentiles), which should support the fire weather concern. ...Lower OH River Valley... Brief and localized elevated conditions may materialize this afternoon across southern IL into southwest IN where winds may approach 15 mph with RH values in the mid 20s. Parts of this region that have seen little rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks have likely maintained dry fuels, but limited confidence in wind magnitudes precludes additional highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 19 2022 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Models suggest that the westerlies will trend a bit more zonal and progressive today across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into the Canadian Prairies. Downstream, it appears that the center of the remnant cyclone over the lower Great Lakes vicinity will redevelop north-northeast of Lake Huron by late tonight, but large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist across most areas east of the Mississippi Valley. In the wake of one embedded short wave impulse now beginning to pivot north-northeastward into and across the Northeast, cold surface ridging will be maintained across much of the Gulf Coast vicinity, while also building northeastward across the south Atlantic Seaboard into the adjacent western Atlantic. This will contribute to the maintenance of generally dry and/or stable conditions across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for thunderstorm activity. ...Lower Great Lakes vicinity... The axis of the mid-level cold core near the 500 mb level is now in the process of pivoting northeast of Lake Erie. As it overspreads Lake Ontario this afternoon, CAPE for boundary-layer parcels over the relatively warm waters will increase as equilibrium levels rise, and thermodynamic profiles may become marginally conducive to charge separation within associated convective development. Occasional lightning flashes are possible, but any potential for sustained bands appears generally confined to the immediate eastern shores of Lake Ontario (around Watertown) late this afternoon and evening, where/when low-level flow is forecast to strengthen and veer from a southerly to southwesterly component. ..Kerr.. 10/19/2022 Read more

The No Grass Creek fire is located in Powell County on the west end of the Helena Ranger District and far east end of the Pintler Ranger District. The fire was initially reported on Sunday, September 11, 2022. The No Grass Creek fire is in an area that has experienced large amounts of tree mortality. The fuel loading is dense and continuous throughout the Electric Peak inventoried roadless area and recommended wilderness area, and because of the current state of the dead timber, it’s neither safe nor effective to put fire personnel into the area. Fire personnel are managing from the air, while other firefighters are observing the fire’s progression, activity and overall behavior from various vantage points on the two districts. Additional fire resources are completing contingency planning and structure assessment on private lands. Due to the remote location, no homes or private property are threatened by the fire, which provides an opportunity to responsibly allow fire to...

The low Mississippi River has slowed the movement of soybeans and corn downriver, hindering exports, per the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Army Corps of Engineers has been dredging parts of the Mississippi and Ohio rivers to deepen shipping channels to keep barges moving. Despite the effort, shippers still worry that Louisiana Gulf terminals will struggle to source enough grain to meet their export commitments. Total season-to-date inspections for soybeans and corn were down 23% and 21% from last year, respectively. Reuters (New York), Oct 17, 2022

Stage 2 water restrictions began on Oct. 20 for North Bend residents after the driest summer in western Washington in decades. Landscaping may be watered no more than three times per week. KING-TV NBC 5 (Seattle, Wash.), Oct. 18, 2022