Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

No watches are valid as of Sun May 28 21:46:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 28 21:46:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN KANSAS SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western portions of the Great Plains this afternoon and evening. Hail and severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Discussion... No appreciable changes appear necessary with this outlook update, as prior areas, and meteorological reasoning, continue to reflect expected evolution of convection the remainder of the period. ..Goss.. 05/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/ ...Central High Plains... Relatively weak westerly mid-level winds are present today throughout the Plains states, with a trough moving across NE/KS. A band of slightly stronger flow aloft wraps around the south side of the trough across parts of southern KS/northern OK (25-30 knots at 500mb). This region is likely to see widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development - focused near several weak surface boundaries and instability gradients. CAM guidance is diverse in the details of these storms, but there may be sufficient vertical shear for isolated organized multicell or perhaps supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...Dakotas to Texas... Surrounding the SLGT risk area, scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across much of the Plains region from the Dakotas to west Texas. It is likely that small areas within this corridor will see occasional strong to severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail. However, a combination of weak forcing mechanisms and only marginally favorable environment result in considerable uncertainty of timing/placement details. Therefore will cover region with a broad MRGL risk. ...Eastern NC... A well defined surface low is currently just west of Cape Fear. Visible satellite imagery shows clearing skies in the northeast quadrant of the low, where dewpoints in the low 70s will yield at least marginal CAPE values later today. However, water vapor imagery shows considerable dry mid-level air wrapping into the system, and forecast soundings show slow warming of the 800-600mb layer. This should tend to suppress robust convective development today. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the forecast are needed. Recent ensemble guidance has trended towards slightly higher probability of 15+ mph winds with 15% RH across parts of southern NV into northwest AZ/southwest UT, but recent ERC values are near seasonal normal and should mitigate more robust fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sun May 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough in the upper Midwest will continue to move northeast and weaken with time on Monday. This will allow the surface trough to progress farther east into the Plains. Similarly, the surface high will migrate towards the New England coast. Southerly winds will continue across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. Despite the continued windy conditions, the eastward progression of the surface high should allow for trajectories to advect greater moisture into the region. That being said, RH is expected to remain above critical thresholds on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds will be possible across parts of the central High Plains into the Dakotas vicinity Monday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A relatively weak flow field aloft will prevail across the U.S. Monday. The most important feature with respect to the convective forecast will be a weak trough crossing the central U.S. -- comprised of phased northern- and southern-stream features. With this feature remaining weak overall, the surface reflection of the feature will also remain weak -- largely comprised of a weak baroclinic zone extending southwestward across the Dakotas/western Nebraska. Elsewhere, a rather weak upper low will drift eastward across the Carolinas/Virginia vicinity, and eventually offshore toward the end of the period, while a second low shifts slowly southward near/just off the California coast. ...South Dakota/western Nebraska and surrounding areas... Daytime heating in the vicinity of a weak surface baroclinic zone will result in moderate afternoon destabilization, with subsequent, scattered thunderstorm development expected. The instability/steep lapse rates aloft will support occasionally robust updrafts, but generally modest shear (mid-level flow generally around 25 kt) should limit updraft longevity/potential severity. Still, a few of the strongest cores will be capable of producing hail, and perhaps a locally strong gust or two. Some south-southwesterly low-level jet increase during the evening may permit a bit of clustering of convection, particularly across the South Dakota area, with therefore limited risk for low-end severe risk to spread eastward into eastern South Dakota during the evening before ultimately diminishing. ..Goss.. 05/28/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun May 28 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

MD 0886 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0886 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Areas affected...East-central Colorado into west-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272203Z - 280000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible into early evening with a small cluster of storms in east-central Colorado. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms with occasional supercell characteristics continues northeastward in east-central Colorado. Dewpoints have mixed out to the low to mid 50s F, supportive of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear is a modest 30-35 kts, but will be sufficient to maintain some potential for additional rotating updrafts. The primary threats will be large hail and isolated damaging winds. While the low-level hodographs are not particularly large, discrete storms that persist to near the Kansas border will eventually be impacted by modestly increasing 850 mb southeasterly winds. A narrow window for a brief tornado will exist over the next couple of hours should storms maintain intensity. ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 38060321 38540338 38980302 39130210 38860159 38550164 38080238 38020291 38060321 Read more

MD 0885 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 244...246... FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0885 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0453 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Areas affected...Southern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244...246... Valid 272153Z - 280000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 244, 246 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will spread east across the southern High Plains this evening. Large hail is the primary risk with this activity. New severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted downstream into the TX High Plains to account for this risk. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery suggests a weak mid-level short-wave trough is translating across central NM/far west TX. Scattered convection has developed ahead of this feature, along the western fringe of higher moisture/instability where southeasterly boundary-layer flow is evident. Latest diagnostic data suggests a surface boundary, augmented by early-day convection, is draped from near I-20, north of ABI, into southeast NM. LLJ should strengthen a bit after sunset across the High Plains and ongoing convection over southeast NM should propagate east, aided by aforementioned short wave. Ample buoyancy, and modest shear, exist across this region such that ongoing convection should be maintained deep into the evening. ..Darrow.. 05/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32120427 35200429 35370250 32330244 32120427 Read more

WW 0245 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 245 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..05/27/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 245 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-087-123-272240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN MORGAN WELD MTC011-075-272240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER POWDER RIVER NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-272240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX Read more

WW 245 SEVERE TSTM CO MT NE SD WY 272000Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 245 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Southeast Montana Nebraska Panhandle Western South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the afternoon and spread northeastward across the watch area. A very unstable air mass will result in a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Buffalo SD to 45 miles east southeast of Fort Collins CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 244... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0244 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 244 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..05/27/23 ATTN...WFO...ABQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 244 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-019-027-037-041-047-057-272140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA GUADALUPE LINCOLN QUAY ROOSEVELT SAN MIGUEL TORRANCE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 244 SEVERE TSTM NM 271905Z - 280200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM MDT Sat May 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A few supercell thunderstorms are expected to track across eastern New Mexico this afternoon and early evening, posing a risk of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north of Ruidoso NM to 5 miles east of Cannon Afb NM. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0246 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0246 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 246 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 272030Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over southwest Texas will track eastward through the afternoon. The strongest cores will occasionally pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Hobbs NM to 90 miles south southeast of Marfa TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 244...WW 245... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 0884 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0884 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Areas affected...Far southeastern New Mexico and southwest TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 272026Z - 272230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage into the evening hours, with the potential for strong/severe gusts and perhaps isolated large hail. A watch is being issued shortly. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is gradually increasing in the vicinity of a north-south-oriented dryline/lee trough in far southwest TX this afternoon -- where a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates is evident. During the next few hours, continued diurnal heating and mesoscale ascent along the dryline should favor an uptick in storm coverage into the evening hours. Regional VWP indicates 30-40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow atop moist east-southeasterlies (middle/upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints) -- supportive of organized storms given continued diurnal destabilization (decreasing CINH) east of the dryline. Initial storms closer to the dryline may remain somewhat separated and pose a risk of isolated large hail; however, the steep lapse rate environment and expected increase in storm coverage should primarily result in a risk of strong/severe outflow winds owing to upscale growth with eastward extent this afternoon/evening. A watch will be issued shortly. ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 30480497 31220489 32130473 32410453 32570420 32600376 32510330 32300307 31940282 31440265 30740256 30030254 29350271 28940308 28970347 29260408 29640458 30480497 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTH PLAINS VICINITY OF TEXAS...SOUTH TO THE RIO GRANDE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across much of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Discussion... The primary change being implemented with this outlook update is the addition of SLGT risk across the Permian Basin/Transpecos regions of Texas, and into the Big Bend area. Widespread convection is initiating over far West Texas, and southward into adjacent northern Mexico. Continued convective increase is expected, with upscale growth into a loosely organized, linear MCS possible. With a few of the strongest storms within the convective cluster likely to be capable of producing hail/wind near or exceeding severe levels -- as suggested by the pre-storm environment, upgrade to SLGT appears warranted at this time. Otherwise, aside from tweaks to the thunder lines, current areas and outlook reasoning continue to reflect current expectations. ..Goss.. 05/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023/ ...Eastern NM/West TX... An overnight cluster of thunderstorms has resulted in remnant outflow boundary extending from near Plainview TX westward to Santa Rosa NM, with continued slow southward movement. This boundary is likely to maintain some character through the afternoon and play a role in convective activity. The 14Z HRRR solution appears to have a reasonable handle on this scenario, and develops a cluster of supercells by mid-afternoon near the boundary over eastern NM. These storms will track eastward in a corridor of slightly enhanced/backed low-level winds. Large/very large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. ...Northern High Plains... Similar to yesterday, full sunshine and steep mid-level lapse rates will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the higher terrain of CO/WY/MT. These storms will spread across the adjacent high plains through the early evening. Moderate CAPE values will promote strong updrafts capable of isolated large hail and damaging winds. However, the main limiting factor will be rather weak bulk shear. Organized multicell storms will likely be the dominant mode, with some clustering expected through the evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... An Elevated risk area is introduced for parts of the Red River Valley of the north/northwest MN. Although ensemble guidance shows only modest potential for sustained elevated conditions, the moist bias noted in most solutions over the past 24 hours is likely muting probabilities of sub-20% RH. Recent RAP solutions, which have performed in the best in this regime, suggest a narrow swath of 20-25% RH and 15+ mph winds will develop through the Red River Valley where overlap of a dry air mass over MN and gradient winds over ND will be greatest. Increasing cloud cover through the day casts some uncertainty into the spatial coverage of the threat, but consecutive days of drying of fine fuels will likely support at least a low-end fire concern. ..Moore.. 05/27/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Sat May 27 2023/ ...Synopsis... The western trough will continue to lift north and weaken in the northern Plains on Sunday. Along the West Coast, a closed low is expected to develop. Downstream of this low, shortwave ridging will occur over the Southwest. Dry and windy conditions are probable in parts of the Lower Colorado Valley and into the southern Great Basin. Fuels remain unfavorable for fire spread, however. Dry conditions will persist in the Southwest, but winds will be weaker than previous days. Locally elevated conditions for southern parts of Arizona and New Mexico are possible. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sat May 27 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across western portions of the Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Hail and strong gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...High Plains and areas just east... While the overall upper flow field, and associated surface pattern, will remain similar to previous days, weakening of the western U.S. trough will result in a corresponding weakening of the flow aloft. This suggests reduced severe potential overall. Still, with a modestly moist, diurnally destabilizing boundary layer across the High Plains in the vicinity of a persistent lee trough, widely scattered storms are expected to develop during the afternoon. The most favorable environmental characteristic with respect to severe-weather potential appears to be the persistence of steep lapse rates/eastward EML advection. As such, despite modest shear, large hail will be possible with stronger storms. Meanwhile, with the weaker synoptic pattern, a weaker nocturnal low-level jet is expected, suggesting less likelihood for well-organized convection to shift eastward toward lower elevations during the evening. The best chance for a loosely organized MCS to evolve appears at this time to be over southeastern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico, which would then shift eastward/east-southeastward into western Kansas and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Severe threat would likely remain limited however -- again due to somewhat modest deep-layer winds. ...South Texas... A weak disturbance aloft is progged to cross northern Mexico and adjacent portions of southern Texas Sunday. With associated, afternoon convective development expected across northern Mexico, it appears possible that some upscale growth of these storms into one or more clusters could occur, that could cross the lower Rio Grande Valley into Texas. While instability would likely remain somewhat limited with eastward extent, potential for locally strong wind gust and/or hail with this convection -- through the evening and into the overnight hours -- may exist. As such, MRGL risk is being extended across South Texas with this update. ..Goss.. 05/27/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271712
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat May 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts