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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail, strong gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Compared to previous days, relatively limited morning convection is currently anticipated across the southern High Plains on Friday. This will allow for diurnal heating of a moist environment, with 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching as far west as extreme southeast NM. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across northern Mexico during the morning and into parts of the southern Rockies/High Plains during the afternoon, which would be favorably timed for scattered thunderstorm development within an unstable and favorably sheared environment. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) will support a conditionally favorable environment for very large hail. The strongest deep-layer shear is expected over portions of the TX South Plains and Permian Basin, in association with a moderate subtropical jet, and a few intense supercells will be possible in this region, with an attendant threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. Low-level shear/SRH is expected to remain relatively modest, but will be sufficient to support a threat of a couple of tornadoes as well. An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) has been added where the greatest risk of supercells producing very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) is currently anticipated. Severe storms will also be possible farther north into parts of the TX Panhandle, though weaker deep-layer shear may result in a mix of convective modes. Some upscale growth is possible with time as storms move eastward toward the TX Big Country region, which could increase the threat of severe gusts, though weaker shear with eastward extent may tend to limit the organization of any outflow-driven clusters into Friday evening. ...Central High Plains... Isolated strong storms will be possible into parts of the central High Plains Friday afternoon/evening, along the northern fringe of somewhat stronger midlevel flow/deep-layer shear associated with a gradually weakening upper-level trough. A few organized multicells and perhaps a supercell or two are possible, with an attendant threat of large hail and locally strong/severe gusts. ...Northeast... Weak deep-layer northerly flow will persist across the region on the eastern periphery of a Great Lakes upper anticyclone. Some modest midlevel cooling and weak ascent associated with an approaching shortwave trough from Quebec, in combination with relatively favorable moisture/instability, will support isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Vertical shear will remain very weak, limiting longevity and organization of strong updrafts. Nevertheless, relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates could support a few strong gusts and small hail in stronger cells. ..Dean.. 06/01/2023 Read more

Extreme drought in Lancaster County prompted Lincoln officials to encourage residents to practice voluntary water conservation effective Friday, June 2 at 5 p.m. KLIN-AM (Lincoln, Neb.), June 1, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 1 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Lawn watering was prohibited in Gibson City per an ordinance about water use during emergencies that restricts water use. Wells were not refilling enough without rain. WCIA (Champaign, Ill.), May 31, 2023

Cattle walking across the pasture in northeast Arkansas caused dust to rise. Ponds are down nearly 50%, according to a Sharp County farmer. KAIT Online (Jonesboro, Ark.), June 1, 2023

The City of Wichita is conserving water, and the public is encouraged to conserve also. Wichita has entered Stage 1 of its Codified Drought Response Plan as the level of Cheney Reservoir drops. Some of the measures that the city has taken to conserve water are reducing water on parkland and city-owned grassy areas, irrigating city golf courses with pond water, wells and using drought-resistant grasses, using gray water on trees, only cleaning city vehicles when necessary and using water efficient devices at city facilities. Water fountains will be running in Wichita during the Riverfest, but the fountains will be shut off after the festival ends. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), June 1, 2023

Wichita residents were asked to conserve water as Cheney Lake, their water supply, was at 80%. KAKE (Wichita, Kan.), April 14, 2023

Crops in central Pennsylvania were stressed and may be losing yield, due to below normal precipitation. An orchard in Mount Wolf was irrigating its cherry trees, a measure that usually isn’t needed until later in the summer. FOX 43 (York, Pa.), May 31, 2023

MD 0910 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN WY...SOUTHWESTERN SD...NORTHERN CO...AND THE NE PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0910 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Areas affected...Parts of eastern WY...southwestern SD...northern CO...and the NE Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 312039Z - 312315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and perhaps locally severe winds are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating coupled with moist easterly upslope flow (middle/upper 50s dewpoints) is supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development along/east of the higher terrain in western SD/eastern WY southward into northern CO. VWP data shows a belt of 20-25-kt midlevel flow atop the low-level easterlies -- yielding around 25-35 kt of effective shear. As storms continue to evolve and eventually spread eastward into the richer low-level moisture, a couple instances of large hail and locally severe gusts will be possible with the more-organized updrafts. ..Weinman/Guyer.. 05/31/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43060460 43760444 44150416 44350368 44380296 44260259 43900226 42160266 41360291 40810310 40320342 39950373 39610409 39580445 39660491 39850514 40400515 40920506 41570486 41980475 42460467 43060460 Read more

WW 0251 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0251 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 251 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 312025Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM MDT Wed May 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon, initially across east-central/southeast New Mexico and the Transpecos of far west Texas. Within a moist/moderately unstable environment, this will include the potential for supercells capable of large hail. Some tornado risk will also exist, particularly near a boundary across east-central New Mexico eastward toward the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. A few clusters of storms within an increased severe wind potential may develop by early evening as storms progress toward and east of the New Mexico/Texas border. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Tucumcari NM to 45 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes are possible later this afternoon and evening over portions of the southern High Plains including eastern New Mexico and west/northwest Texas. ...20Z Update... The northwestern portion of the Slight Risk was trimmed slightly across northeast NM, where relatively cool and stable conditions are noted in the wake of ongoing convection. Otherwise, no changes have been made to the risk areas across the southern High Plains. See MCD 908 and the previous discussion below for more information regarding the severe threat in that area. A Marginal Risk has been added across northwest IA into southwest MN and adjacent portions of northeast SD/southeast ND, in conjunction with an MCV moving across the region. Modestly organized storms capable of isolated hail and localized downbursts will remain possible through the rest of the afternoon. See MCD 907 for more information. Elsewhere, no changes have been made. See MCD 909 for more information regarding the short-term threat in southeast CO/southwest KS, and the previous discussion below for more information elsewhere. ..Dean.. 05/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... Severe-thunderstorm potential will be maximized across the region later this afternoon into evening, with large hail, severe-caliber wind gust and tornado risks. An MCS continues to decay at late morning near the western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity, with lingering cold pool influences across the OK/TX Panhandles. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms have become increasing prevalent across east-central/northeast Mexico this morning, seemingly related to a weak/lead mid-level impulse preceding the upper low centered near the Lower Colorado River Valley. The aforementioned ongoing early day convection across eastern New Mexico casts some uncertainty for later today. However, the south/southwest fringes of this stronger/more sustained convection should be favored areas for more robust/semi-discrete development later today, including in vicinity of modifying outflow and near higher terrain of east-central New Mexico. This should provide a net peak focus for areas along/south of I-40 this afternoon across east-central New Mexico, and into nearby west Texas/Texas South Plains by early evening. This will include initial semi-discrete supercells capable of large hail, including potentially significant hailstones (2+ inch diameter). This is where buoyancy is likely to be maximized with 35-45 kt effective shear. Some tornado potential will exist as well, particularly in vicinity of remnant/modifying outflow. Storm mergers and gradual upscale growth with some increase in severe-caliber wind potential should occur this evening eastward toward the New Mexico/Texas border region into the Texas South Plains vicinity and parts of the Texas Panhandle. ...Central High Plains... Isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms are still expected to form this afternoon near the dryline/lee trough and on higher terrain features, such as the Black Hills and Rockies foothills. Ample heating, steep lapse rates and 40s/50s F dewpoints will support upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon. Mid/high-level winds will be relatively weak with a multicellular mode prevalent. Relatively isolated instances of large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts can be expected, particularly late this afternoon through early/mid-evening. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311831
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed May 31 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across southern NM with pockets of critical conditions probable in areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Elevated wind/RH conditions may extend well to the north and east of the current risk area, but the potential for wetting rainfall over the next 18 hours continues to cast uncertainty on fuel status. Further adjustments may be needed depending on rainfall today and tonight. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Though the Southwest upper trough will lose amplitude on Thursday, enhanced mid-level winds will persist across parts of central and southern New Mexico and extreme West Texas. The surface pattern will a bit less focused that on Wednesday, though some week troughing is expected in the lee of the southern/central Rockies. RH will again fall to 10-20% across much of western/central New Mexico during the afternoon. Winds will most likely range from 15-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for parts of central New Mexico. While these conditions may extend into parts of southeast New Mexico, there is potential for precipitation in these areas on Wednesday. Adjustments to the elevated area may occur depending on rainfall observations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern High Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... A remnant MCS will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern High Plains. The evolution of this feature will greatly influence severe potential across the region, with the primary threat likely to be focused near any remnant outflow boundaries, and also potentially with some rejuvenation of morning convection during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the greatest relative severe threat appears to be across parts of the TX South Plains. An outflow boundary may become draped across this area during the afternoon, while mid/upper-level flow begins to increase in response to the eastward-moving mid/upper-level cyclone near the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of supercells may evolve near the outflow boundary, along the southern periphery of any MCV that might develop from extensive convection farther north. Large hail would likely be the primary threat, especially with any supercells that persist into the evening as mid/upper-level flow continues to increase. Some tornado threat may also evolve, depending on the orientation of any outflow boundary relative to supercell motion, and the extent of modification that can occur on the cool side of the boundary. Farther north, some severe potential remains evident into the TX Panhandle and western OK, but uncertainty remains regarding the extent of morning convection and potential for destabilization during the afternoon. Morning storms could intensify as they move eastward during the afternoon, with veering wind profiles supporting some modestly organized cells/clusters and an attendant threat of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. Farther west into east-central NM, modest instability and favorably veered wind profiles (likely influenced somewhat by outflow) may support a strong cell or two capable of isolated large hail during the afternoon. ...Northern High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is possible across much of MT and adjacent portions of the northern High Plains, generally to the north and east of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough over portions of the northern Rockies. Weak deep-layer shear should generally limit storm organization, and any more focused areas of severe potential remain unclear at this time, though some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for portions of the region. ..Dean.. 05/31/2023 Read more

Some areas of the Central and Southern Plains, major livestock areas, continue to receive below normal rainfall. Pastures need more rain for adequate growth and grass production for cattle. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 30, 2023 Drought continues in major beef cattle areas of the US and is significantly affecting the cattle industry, despite drought easing in other parts of the country. Forage remains in demand in the central and southern Plains as drought lowers hay production. The U.S. average of poor to very poor pasture conditions in early May was 37%. The worst pasture conditions were found in Kansas (64%), Nebraska (68%), Oklahoma (54%) and Texas (52%). For the start of the hay crop year, May 1, U.S. hay stocks were down 13.4 percent year over year and were down 26.4 percent from the ten-year 2012-2021 average. Drought has lowered hay production in Texas, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. Delayed and limited pasture and hay growth in the central and southern Plains is likely still leading to some cattle liquidation. Total beef cow slaughter through April this year was down 11.2 percent from last year’s high level. Some additional herd liquidation is likely still happening in the worst drought areas, but it may be less apparent due to reduced beef cow slaughter in drought-free areas. Farm Progress (St. Charles, Ill.), May 15, 2023

MD 0901 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0901 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 302201Z - 310000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely late this afternoon. Storms will moving east of the higher terrain will eventually encounter greater moisture and intensity. Strong to severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. Isolated large hail is also possible. DISCUSSION...Storms developing within the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and have generally been slow to move east and have shown pulses in intensity over the past hour or so. As these storms move east, they will encounter greater moisture/buoyancy and will likely intensify. A reservoir of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE sits just into western Kansas southward into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Flow aloft is not particularly strong; however, with a subtle shortwave moving into New Mexico per water vapor imagery, some breakdown in the shortwave ridging in the region is noted. Area VWP have captured a modest increase in 6 km winds (25-30 kts). Modestly organized storms in this very steep mid-level lapse rate environment will likely produce strong to severe outflow winds. A few initial updrafts may also produce large hail. Based on the current evolution of storms and recent guidance, it seems probable that storms will first intensify in western Kansas before farther south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely late this afternoon. ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38200151 37760067 36510052 35280104 34830125 34770167 34830279 35200304 35820311 36840311 37950272 38200151 Read more

Some farmers in eastern Nebraska opted to irrigate as spring rains failed to bring moisture, driving up expenses and cutting into profits. NewsChannel Nebraska (Grand Island, Neb.), May 30, 2023

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more