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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter, damaging thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this afternoon through late evening from the ArkLaTex into central Texas. ...20Z Update... ...North/Central TX... Recent surface analysis places an outflow boundary from Wise County southeastward to Ellis/Navarro Counties and then back eastward/east-northeastward into northwest LA. Cumulus is developing along this boundary across the southern Metroplex vicinity, and the air mass here and south is strongly unstable (i.e. MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg). An initially cellular mode is anticipated, with some supercells possible. Very large hail will be primary threat, but a tornado or two is also possible if any storms interact with the outflow boundary. Expectation is for eventual upscale growth, with the line then moving southeastward into east/southeast TX. The threat would transition to damaging gusts during that time, with a few gusts from 60-75 mph are possible. This area was also addressed in recently issued MCD #964 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 262. ...Central Plains/Central High Plains... Overall expectations across the central High Plains and central Plains have not changed. Across the central High Plains, thunderstorms expected to come off the higher terrain and move into the lower elevations, with an attendant threat for damaging gusts. Over the central Plains, a strong storm or two is still possible this evening and overnight as a cold front pushes through the region. ..Mosier.. 06/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/ ...Southern Plains to the lower MS Valley through late evening... A cluster of thunderstorms is moving southeastward across the ArkLaTex as of late morning, with an MCV over eastern OK (trailing the initial convection/outflow). Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low 70s from northeast TX into northern LA/southern AR, which is boosting MLCAPE to the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Vertical shear remains relatively weak near and ahead of the primary convective band along the outflow, and the strongest updrafts should remain along the southern flank of the cluster. Thus, the expectation is for occasional damaging gusts with precipitation-loaded downdrafts, with a somewhat outflow-dominant structure to the cluster as is moves southeastward through the afternoon. Other, more isolated storm clusters with isolated downburst potential, may occur this afternoon along the instability gradient into MS. Farther west, outflow with the morning cluster is moving southward into north TX. Strong surface heating and a feed of steep midlevel lapse rates from the west will contribute to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg) this afternoon, along and south of the outflow boundary. Additional thunderstorm development appears probable by mid-late afternoon along the slowing outflow, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward toward southeast TX before weakening early tonight. Vertical shear will become sufficient for supercells along the outflow boundary as a weak midlevel trough/speed max moves eastward over TX within the southern stream. The steep lapse rates/large buoyancy, in combination with mainly straight hodographs and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt, will support supercell clusters capable of producing isolated very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. Some upscale growth will be possible this evening, with a corresponding increase in the threat for damaging outflow gusts. Any tornado threat will rely on favorable storm interactions with locally backed flow/stronger low-level shear along the modifying outflow boundary late this afternoon. ...Central Plains this afternoon into tonight... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across the central Plains in associated with remnant MCVs and differential heating zones. Buoyancy and vertical shear will not be strong, but isolated/marginal hail/wind events will be possible. Other clusters of storms may form across the High Plains and move east-southeastward this evening into tonight. These storms may produce isolated strong-severe outflow gusts from eastern CO into KS. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO... The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0236 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will start to overspread the Southwest on Sunday as a shortwave trough moves out of southern Arizona into New Mexico. Deep mixing will bring some of this stronger flow to the surface with sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph expected. Relative humidity of 8 to 15 percent is expected in a region with 90th percentile ERCs. Therefore, elevated conditions are expected late morning and continuing into the evening hours across much of southeast Arizona and southwest/western New Mexico. A smaller area of critical fire weather conditions are most likely across southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico where these strongest winds are expected and the greatest chance for large fire spread will exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM AR INTO LOWER OH VALLEY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE...AND FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Arkansas into and lower Ohio Valley and Middle Tennessee Sunday afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe storms are possible from southeast Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A somewhat active upper pattern (by mid-June standards) is anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to drop southward into the Upper Great Lakes, encouraged southward by a shortwave trough progressing through its southern periphery across the Mid MS, OH and TN Valleys. Expectation is for this shortwave to be over the central/southern Appalachians by early Monday morning. Surface low associated with this system will likely be centered over the St. Louis vicinity early Sunday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across central MO and central OK to another low in northwest TX. This cold front is forecast to push southeastward throughout the day, as the surface low moves northeastward across the OH Valley. By 00Z Monday, expectation is for this cold front to stretch from the low in southern OH southwestward across western KY through the Mid-South and Arklatex to another low over north-central TX. Farther west, an upper low initially over the southern CA coast will likely track northeastward across southern CA and southern NV. As it does, a shortwave trough is expected to rotate through its western periphery into the Great Basin. Additionally, strong mid-level flow associated with this low will spread eastward through the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...Mid-MS Valley/Mid-South into the OH/TN Valley and Southeast... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the Mid MS Valley early Sunday morning, in the vicinity of the surface low. General expectation is for storm intensity and coverage to gradually increase throughout the afternoon as the shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis approaches, encouraging the surface low northeastward and its attendant front southeastward. Moderate air mass destabilization is anticipated ahead of the front from central AR into western/middle TN. Shear will be modest, but sufficient for a few more organized multicell clusters. Steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to the risk for damaging gusts, with a few updrafts likely strong enough to produce hail as well. Less destabilization is expected farther north across the OH Valley, but increased shear and ascent near the surface could still contribute to gusty winds with more robust storms. ...Central/Southern High Plains.. Afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated across the higher terrain of CO Sunday afternoon. Mean westerly flow will likely push these storms off the higher terrain into the adjacent plains, where moist post-frontal, easterly flow is expected. Veering wind profiles will contribute to moderate vertical shear, and the potential for a few supercells capable of all severe hazards. ...Great Basin.. Thunderstorms coverage is expected to increase during the afternoon as ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough moves through the modestly buoyancy air mass over the region. Steep low-level lapse rates will be in place, with modest mid-level moisture and cold mid-level temperatures responsible for the buoyancy. High cloud bases and a few stronger updrafts may result in a few stronger downdrafts within this well-mixed environment. ...North TX into the Arklatex... A more conditional risk for an isolated severe storm or two is anticipated as the air mass recovers ahead of the approaching front. Warm and dry mid-levels from preceding convection may prevent deep convection, but there is some chance there is enough heating to remove this inhibition. If storms do develop, the overall environment should support supercells, with large hail as the primary threat. ..Mosier.. 06/10/2023 Read more

316
ABPZ20 KNHC 101716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jun 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Pumpkins on a Duluth farm were not growing amid drought conditions in the area, but remained alive. Annuals were struggling in the drought. WDIO News (Duluth, Minn.), June 8, 2023

The Wilderness Trail Fire began on June 3 when a campfire escaped and burned 2,400 acres. WJR-AM (Detroit, Mich.), June 5, 2023

No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 9 22:16:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0961 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0961 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092113Z - 092245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this evening across the Texas Panhandle and vicinity. DISCUSSION...While most CAM guidance, other than the NAM, mixed out dewpoints across the Texas Panhandle today, it has not materialized with upper 50 to low 60s dewpoints across much of the Texas Panhandle. As a result, 2000 J/kg MLCAPE has developed across the region with only weak inhibition, per SPC mesoanalysis. A few storms have developed along a dryline from near Clovis to north of Lubbock with some additional towers observed beneath the cirrus plume. A broad region of ascent will continue to overspread this region through the evening which could help aid in storm development. If sustained updrafts can develop, supercell organization is possible with with around 40 knots of effective shear. These supercells will have a primary hazard of large hail, but a greater damaging wind threat could develop if more scattered development occurs and they consolidate into a linear segment. Would expect the threat to remain too isolated/short-lived for a watch, but if the severe threat becomes more widespread or shows signs of being longer lasting, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 33500128 34300211 34670312 34960370 35540420 36560284 36630102 35639979 34549950 33819946 33369957 33110004 33500128 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter will be possible late this afternoon into early tonight, mainly from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly westward in the Raton Mesa vicinity, where convection is increasing within a modestly unstable and sheared environment. Also, the 5% hail has been expanded into central NE, where severe hail was noted earlier this afternoon, and MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg may continue to support isolated hail with the strongest storms. Otherwise, no major changes have been made. See MCD 958 for more information regarding the short-term threat in the central Plains. Also see the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 06/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023/ ...Eastern CO/western KS to west TX through tonight... Embedded speed maxima within the southern stream will eject east-northeastward from NM toward the southern High Plains through tonight. This will support continued weak lee troughing across the southern High Plains, with boundary-layer dewpoints expected to mix into the upper 40s to mid 50s this afternoon immediately east of the trough/dryline. Thunderstorm initiation appears more probable along the east slopes of the higher terrain in southeast CO by early-mid afternoon, and convection will spread eastward toward southwest KS/OK Panhandle/northern TX Panhandle through early tonight. Deep-layer vertical shear will remain rather modest (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt with relatively straight hodographs), but MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg and DCAPE > 1200 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates will favor occasional severe outflow gusts as the main threat late this afternoon into early tonight. The degree of storm cluster organization is somewhat in question, but the threat for severe gusts appears to be high enough to warrant a Slight risk area. Farther south, a few storms should form this afternoon near the high terrain in southwest TX, and storms will subsequently spread eastward this evening. Deep mixing will support high-based storms capable of producing isolated strong-severe outflow gusts. Thunderstorm development is less certain along the arcing dryline from west central TX into the TX Panhandle. If storms form, there will be a conditional threat for damaging gusts and some hail. ...FL this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough will move eastward over the northeast Gulf of Mexico, while a surface front stalls near the FL/GA border. Strong surface heating is underway across FL, and thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along the front across north FL and along sea breeze boundaries. Weak low-midlevel, west/southwesterly flow profiles will favor the Atlantic coast sea breeze for primary storm development, with multicell clusters the main storm mode. Moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE > 2000 J/kg) and DCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg will support isolated strong/damaging outflow gusts with downbursts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z Only minor changes were made to the forecast based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 06/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... A relative weakness in mid-level flow is anticipated for much of the day Saturday. However, surface conditions will be very dry with single digit relative humidity across much of southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico. Late Saturday afternoon, some stronger mid-level flow will start to overspread southern New Mexico ahead of an approaching mid-level jet streak. The strongest winds will remain over northern Mexico during peak heating, but some stronger flow is expected to overspread southern New Mexico and vicinity with sustained surface winds of 15 to 20 mph for a few hours during the late afternoon/early evening. Therefore, an Elevated fire weather risk is warranted for southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico, primarily for the late afternoon to early evening period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SUMMARY... Multiple clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of the southern Great Plains, ArkLaTex, and lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and isolated hail will be possible across the ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley, with some potential for very large hail, severe gusts, and a tornado or two across parts of north and central Texas. ...Synopsis... On the large scale, a seasonably deep upper-level trough will shift slowly eastward across the eastern Pacific and western CONUS on Saturday, as a notable upper ridge remains in place from the northern High Plains into the Canadian Prairies, and a longwave trough generally remains in place from the Great Lakes into much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move through the northern and eventually central Plains, with a frontal wave expected to move southeastward somewhere across NE/KS, and another weak surface wave potentially developing near a surface trough across the southern High Plains. ...ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions... A thunderstorm cluster or loosely organized MCS may be ongoing somewhere across OK/north TX/western AR Saturday morning, aided by low-level warm advection. Some rejuvenation and/or redevelopment along the gust front will be possible by late morning into early afternoon into parts of the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions, as rather strong heating and destabilization occurs downstream of any morning convection. Scattered damaging winds and isolated hail will be possible if this scenario does evolve on Saturday. Any storm cluster or MCS would likely tend to lose organization as it moves toward the lower MS Valley, due to weaker deep-layer shear and low-level inflow with eastward extent, though some damaging wind threat could persist with any remnant cluster into central/southern MS. A few strong multicells could also develop across parts of AR/MS ahead of any outflow-driven cluster during the afternoon, within a warm, buoyant, and uncapped environment. ...Parts of north/central into east TX... Confidence is rather high regarding the development of severe thunderstorms somewhere across central/north TX Saturday afternoon, as a low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough moves across the region and an outflow boundary potentially spreads into the area from the north. Considerable uncertainty remains, however, regarding the position of the outflow boundary (if any) during the afternoon. In general, scattered storm development will be possible near any outflow boundary, and also along a diffuse surface trough/dryline that may gradually mix eastward during the afternoon. Strong heating of a favorably moist environment will support strong to locally extreme buoyancy near/south of any outflow boundary, and along/east of the weak surface trough/dryline. Midlevel west-northwesterly flow will not be overly strong, but sufficient to support 30-40 kt of effective shear (greater where surface winds are locally backed), and initial development may quickly evolve into supercells with an attendant threat of very large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two also cannot be ruled out, depending on mesoscale details regarding the orientation of any outflow boundary and the extent of modification on the cool side of the boundary. With time, storm clustering may result in some upscale growth, with a threat of damaging winds and embedded hail spreading south-southeastward Saturday evening into portions of central/southeast TX. Storms will eventually move into a region of weaker deep-layer shear and increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat may reach as far as the upper TX coast Saturday night. ...Central Plains... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, within a post-frontal regime across the High Plains, and along/ahead of the cold front from central/eastern NE/KS into western IA/MO. Deep-layer flow/shear will generally remain rather weak, with some uncertain potential for locally enhanced shear near any MCVs. One or more weakly organized clusters may eventually evolve and move east/southeastward with time across the region, with an attendant threat of isolated hail and localized severe gusts. ..Dean.. 06/09/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091715
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Drought during the fall of 2022 plus spring drought resulted in very, very small strawberries. WRTV-TV ABC 6 Indianapolis, (Ind.), June 8, 2023

The Papio-Missouri River Natural Resources District encourages people statewide to conserve water due to persistent drought conditions. The advisory is expected to remain in effect all summer. Water is low in the Papio-Missouri district and also in the Lower Platte area. Omaha is 13.39 inches below average on rainfall for 2023, per the National Weather Service. WOWT TV 6 (Omaha, Neb.), June 8, 2023

May was one of the driest ever in Berks County. Consequently, the Reading Area Water Authority was striving to conserve water and has asked the public to curb their water use. The hydrants were scheduled to be flushed, but that has been delayed at least two weeks. WFMZ 69 News Online (Allentown, Pa.), June 8, 2023

No watches are valid as of Thu Jun 8 21:48:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jun 8 21:48:02 UTC 2023.

Wentzville issued a voluntary Water Conservation Declaration on June 5 due to dry conditions and a big uptick in lawn watering. The declaration will remain in effect through Sept. 5 if conditions stay dry. St. Louis Public Radio KWMU (St. Louis, Mo.), June 8, 2023

Missouri’s Drought Assessment Committee met on June 7 and discussed a number of ways to help farmers, including bulk water purchases and expansion of livestock grazing areas. St. Louis Public Radio KWMU (St. Louis, Mo.), June 8, 2023