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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in recent guidance. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely across southern NM with pockets of critical conditions probable in areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds. Elevated wind/RH conditions may extend well to the north and east of the current risk area, but the potential for wetting rainfall over the next 18 hours continues to cast uncertainty on fuel status. Further adjustments may be needed depending on rainfall today and tonight. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 05/31/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CDT Wed May 31 2023/ ...Synopsis... Though the Southwest upper trough will lose amplitude on Thursday, enhanced mid-level winds will persist across parts of central and southern New Mexico and extreme West Texas. The surface pattern will a bit less focused that on Wednesday, though some week troughing is expected in the lee of the southern/central Rockies. RH will again fall to 10-20% across much of western/central New Mexico during the afternoon. Winds will most likely range from 15-20 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for parts of central New Mexico. While these conditions may extend into parts of southeast New Mexico, there is potential for precipitation in these areas on Wednesday. Adjustments to the elevated area may occur depending on rainfall observations. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed May 31 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible across portions of the southern High Plains on Thursday afternoon and evening. ...Southern High Plains... A remnant MCS will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern High Plains. The evolution of this feature will greatly influence severe potential across the region, with the primary threat likely to be focused near any remnant outflow boundaries, and also potentially with some rejuvenation of morning convection during the afternoon and evening. At this time, the greatest relative severe threat appears to be across parts of the TX South Plains. An outflow boundary may become draped across this area during the afternoon, while mid/upper-level flow begins to increase in response to the eastward-moving mid/upper-level cyclone near the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of supercells may evolve near the outflow boundary, along the southern periphery of any MCV that might develop from extensive convection farther north. Large hail would likely be the primary threat, especially with any supercells that persist into the evening as mid/upper-level flow continues to increase. Some tornado threat may also evolve, depending on the orientation of any outflow boundary relative to supercell motion, and the extent of modification that can occur on the cool side of the boundary. Farther north, some severe potential remains evident into the TX Panhandle and western OK, but uncertainty remains regarding the extent of morning convection and potential for destabilization during the afternoon. Morning storms could intensify as they move eastward during the afternoon, with veering wind profiles supporting some modestly organized cells/clusters and an attendant threat of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts. Farther west into east-central NM, modest instability and favorably veered wind profiles (likely influenced somewhat by outflow) may support a strong cell or two capable of isolated large hail during the afternoon. ...Northern High Plains... Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is possible across much of MT and adjacent portions of the northern High Plains, generally to the north and east of a mid/upper-level shortwave trough over portions of the northern Rockies. Weak deep-layer shear should generally limit storm organization, and any more focused areas of severe potential remain unclear at this time, though some severe probabilities may eventually be needed for portions of the region. ..Dean.. 05/31/2023 Read more

Some areas of the Central and Southern Plains, major livestock areas, continue to receive below normal rainfall. Pastures need more rain for adequate growth and grass production for cattle. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 30, 2023 Drought continues in major beef cattle areas of the US and is significantly affecting the cattle industry, despite drought easing in other parts of the country. Forage remains in demand in the central and southern Plains as drought lowers hay production. The U.S. average of poor to very poor pasture conditions in early May was 37%. The worst pasture conditions were found in Kansas (64%), Nebraska (68%), Oklahoma (54%) and Texas (52%). For the start of the hay crop year, May 1, U.S. hay stocks were down 13.4 percent year over year and were down 26.4 percent from the ten-year 2012-2021 average. Drought has lowered hay production in Texas, Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. Delayed and limited pasture and hay growth in the central and southern Plains is likely still leading to some cattle liquidation. Total beef cow slaughter through April this year was down 11.2 percent from last year’s high level. Some additional herd liquidation is likely still happening in the worst drought areas, but it may be less apparent due to reduced beef cow slaughter in drought-free areas. Farm Progress (St. Charles, Ill.), May 15, 2023

MD 0901 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0901 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Areas affected...Southwest Kansas into the Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 302201Z - 310000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely late this afternoon. Storms will moving east of the higher terrain will eventually encounter greater moisture and intensity. Strong to severe wind gusts are the primary hazards. Isolated large hail is also possible. DISCUSSION...Storms developing within the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and have generally been slow to move east and have shown pulses in intensity over the past hour or so. As these storms move east, they will encounter greater moisture/buoyancy and will likely intensify. A reservoir of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE sits just into western Kansas southward into the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Flow aloft is not particularly strong; however, with a subtle shortwave moving into New Mexico per water vapor imagery, some breakdown in the shortwave ridging in the region is noted. Area VWP have captured a modest increase in 6 km winds (25-30 kts). Modestly organized storms in this very steep mid-level lapse rate environment will likely produce strong to severe outflow winds. A few initial updrafts may also produce large hail. Based on the current evolution of storms and recent guidance, it seems probable that storms will first intensify in western Kansas before farther south. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely late this afternoon. ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 38200151 37760067 36510052 35280104 34830125 34770167 34830279 35200304 35820311 36840311 37950272 38200151 Read more

Some farmers in eastern Nebraska opted to irrigate as spring rains failed to bring moisture, driving up expenses and cutting into profits. NewsChannel Nebraska (Grand Island, Neb.), May 30, 2023

WW 0249 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0249 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 249 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 302155Z - 310500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM MDT Tue May 30 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Northwest Kansas Western Nebraska * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multicell clusters should intensify as they spread east across the central High Plains this evening. Severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles north northeast of Alliance NE to 50 miles south southeast of Burlington CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Grams Read more

MD 0900 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0900 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 302134Z - 302300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...High-based convection is expected to increase across the central High Plains this evening. Severe winds are the greatest risk, though isolated large hail can be expected. DISCUSSION...Surface heating across the central High Plains has minimized inhibition in the lee of the Rockies from southeast WY into northeast CO. As a result, scattered convection is beginning to increase in areal coverage, especially across southeast WY. This activity appears to be aided by a weak mid-level disturbance that is shifting east toward the central Plains. Southeasterly low-level inflow should contribute to eastward propagation as some increase in LLJ is expected after sunset. Additionally, scattered cu field is deepening along a weak surface boundary, just north of I-70 over northwest KS. Thunderstorms may continue to cluster along this zone of preferential low-level convergence over the next few hours. Severe winds should be the primary risk as convection organizes over the High Plains and potentially grows upscale as it progresses downstream this evening. ..Darrow/Grams.. 05/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40210363 42160389 42430248 41120137 39199971 38910196 40210363 Read more

MD 0899 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0899 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302005Z - 302230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts are possible across parts of central and northern Minnesota this afternoon and early evening. A watch is not expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows a gradually deepening boundary-layer cumulus field in the vicinity of a weak confluence zone draped across parts of west-central Minnesota this afternoon. Continued diurnal heating amid somewhat sheltered boundary-layer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints) near the confluence zone and a mesoscale low should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms during the next few hours. Within the pre-convective environment, weak low-level warm-air advection beneath a belt of strengthening midlevel westerly flow should yield around 30-35 kt of effective shear with modest low-level hodograph curvature. This wind profile, coupled with the development of moderate surface-based instability will conditionally support supercell structures capable of isolated large hail and locally damaging winds. Current thinking is that the severe threat may remain relatively isolated given the subtle forcing for ascent, though convective trends will be monitored through the afternoon. ..Weinman/Hart.. 05/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 45229335 44939384 44869438 44849504 44989544 45469577 45889567 46409546 46919529 47349514 47959498 48089488 48259450 48289398 48209349 48019314 47719296 46999277 46319280 45919294 45229335 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN COLORADO...AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm gusts -- some reaching at least 75 mph -- are possible from this afternoon into early evening over portions of the central and southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... No major changes have been made to the outlook. Convection developing near the higher terrain of CO (and adjacent portions of NM/WY) is expected to intensify later this afternoon and evening, as it moves eastward into an increasingly unstable environment. These storms are expected to pose a threat of severe gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) and isolated hail. See the previous discussion below for more information regarding the outlook reasoning. See MCD 897 for more information regarding the short-term threat across the High Plains, and MCD 898 for more information regarding the short-term threat across parts of the lower MO River Valley. ..Dean.. 05/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023/ ...Central High Plains... Morning model guidance shows a weak mid-level shortwave trough lifting northeastward through the four-corners region. Broad but weak large scale ascent ahead of this trough is resulting in a large patch of mid/high clouds moving across the central Rockies. This area of moisture will overspread the high plains of eastern CO/northeast NM by mid-afternoon. Full sunshine will lead to a very deep mixed layer with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, along with marginal CAPE. This should support scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms capable of dry microburst activity. As this convection and associated outflow boundaries spread eastward during the late afternoon and early evening, they will interact with a moist and very unstable air mass (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) from western NE into far eastern CO, western KS, and the TX/OK Panhandles. Rapid intensification of storms will lead to more widespread and intense wind gusts during the evening, along with a few cells capable of large hail. Severe storms will persist for a few hours after dark, before diurnal cooling/decoupling weakens the threat. Given the high degree of agreement between 12z CAM solutions, will introduce a narrow ENH where greatest concern for damaging winds is apparent. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on trends in latest guidance. Ensembles continue to depict relatively high probabilities of areas of 20+ mph winds coincident with 10-15% RH from far southeast AZ into western NM. Elevated fire weather conditions may extend further east than currently outlined into eastern/southeast NM during the early afternoon hours. However, increasing clouds/thunderstorm chances should limit the temporal duration of the fire weather threat. A few dry lightning strikes may occur in the vicinity of early initiating convection along the terrain of central/eastern NM, but early cells should quickly transition to wet thunderstorms as they migrate east into a higher PWAT environment. ..Moore.. 05/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Tue May 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Thursday, the southwestern upper-level low will become more of an open wave and reach the Four Corners by Friday morning. This feature will promote an increase in mid-level winds across Arizona and New Mexico. This increase in flow aloft will be better timed with afternoon heating. Furthermore, a deeper surface trough is expected from central New Mexico into the eastern Great Basin. ...Southwest... Winds of at least 15 mph are expected across parts of eastern Arizona into western New Mexico. A stronger belt of winds is anticipated from southwest New Mexico into west-central New Mexico. There, winds of 20-25 mph are possible underneath the enhanced mid-level winds. With RH of 10-15% across this region, critical fire weather can be expected for a few hours during the afternoon. Elsewhere in the vicinity, elevated conditions are more probable, given the potential for 15-20% RH and lighter winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue May 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO/NM...WESTERN KS...WEST TX...AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong gusts are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the central and southern High Plains vicinity. ...Synopsis... An upper-level cyclone initially over southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward on Wednesday. Farther east, a weak mid/upper-level trough will persist over the Gulf of Mexico, while an upper ridge will remain over parts of the Northeast. A broad surface cyclone will move little over the eastern Great Basin, while a surface ridge remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS. Some deepening of a lee cyclone is possible across the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. ...Parts of the central/southern High Plains... Another day of active convection is expected across parts of the central/southern High Plains on Wednesday. The initial severe threat may be focused somewhat farther west compared to D1/Tuesday, with low-level southeasterly flow and the potential influence of outflow from Tuesday convection helping to increase low-level moisture closer to the higher terrain. Diurnal heating and embedded vorticity maxima in advance of the upper cyclone over the Southwest will support widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across terrain-favored regions, and also potentially farther east into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and west TX. Deep-layer flow will again be rather modest across the region, but favorably veering wind profiles will support effective shear of 25-35 kt (slightly stronger with southward extent), sufficient for some storm organization, including the potential for a few supercells. Moderate to strong instability will support some hail potential with the strongest semi-discrete storms. With time, outflow mergers may result in an increasing threat for severe gusts, especially if stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur downstream of initial storm development during the afternoon. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially if any supercells can persist into the evening, when some increase in low-level shear/SRH is expected. ...Eastern SD into northeast NE/northwest IA and central/southern MN... Guidance generally suggests that extensive convection on D1/Tuesday will generate an MCV that will move slowly northeastward somewhere across eastern SD/southwest MN and vicinity. Should this occur, there is some potential for the MCV to interact with a weak surface boundary and promote strong thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Uncertainty remains high regarding the intensity and track of any MCV development, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence in this scenario increases with time. ..Dean.. 05/30/2023 Read more

River birch trees in the Columbus area have died from the top down, due to drought in combination with heat and high winds in the past year. Younger trees with less established root systems, trees planted too deep, those with girdling roots or mower or weed trimmer injury on the trunk, and trees that have not received correct supplemental watering the last two years may have dieback or dead branches. Other trees with certain issues may also have dieback or dead branches, such as younger trees with less established root systems, trees planted too deep, those with girdling roots or mower or weed trimmer injury on the trunk, and trees that have not received correct supplemental watering the last two years. The Columbus Telegram (Neb.), May 27, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 30 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Rainfall eased drought in the New Braunfels area, allowing the city to move from Stage 3 drought restrictions to Stage 2 on May 29. The 10-day average water level for the J17 Edwards Aquifer monitoring well has improved, and the 10-day average spring flow for the Comal Springs has increased to or exceeded 150 cubic feet per second and stayed there for at least 15 days. Community Impact – Austin (Texas), May 30, 2023 Stage 3 water restrictions began in New Braunfels on June 21, New Braunfels Utilities announced on June 20. The Comal Spring flow is falling and is jeopardizing the natural habitat of endangered species and natural resources. Communities downstream also rely on water from the Comal and San Marcos Springs. At the present rate of decline and without rain, the Comal Springs could stop flowing in two to three weeks. KENS 5 (San Antonio, Texas), June 20, 2022

MD 0895 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0895 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0514 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Areas affected...Parts of South Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292214Z - 292345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible along a westward-moving boundary. Large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible with the most intense storms. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed along a westward-moving Gulf breeze boundary. These storms are also aided by a weak trough moving through South Texas. Thus far, these storms have developed and intensified due to steep mid-level lapse rates and around 30 kts of effective shear (per mesoanlysis and area VAD profiles). However, the westward speed of the boundary is fast enough that storms quickly get undercut and weaken rather quickly. Additional development is most probable along the boundary. Storms will be capable of large hail and isolated damaging winds. Should the boundary slow, it is possible that a storm could persist along it for a longer duration. The 12Z observed BRO sounding showed some warm air aloft around 800 mb. This casts some uncertainty on how far south storm robust storm development will occur. ..Wendt/Grams.. 05/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 28429940 28829905 28669857 28309835 27829820 27119814 26459815 26009830 25959879 26379918 28429940 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and damaging winds remain possible this afternoon and evening in parts of the central High Plains into Nebraska and South Dakota. ...Discussion... With current expectations in line with the ongoing outlook, no appreciable changes appear necessary with this update. For additional short-term information, please refer to MCD 893 and 894. ..Goss.. 05/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023/ ...Northern and Central Plains... A weak upper trough remains in place over the northern and central Plains states today, providing relatively cool temperatures aloft and subtle large-scale forcing for ascent across the region. This will lead to scattered afternoon thunderstorm development, and at least some potential for hail and gusty winds. Forecast soundings throughout the region show moderately steep mid level lapse rates and just enough bulk shear for marginal organization. Therefore will maintain the MRGL risk for much of the region. One area that appears to have a slightly more favorable environment is along a weak surface confluence zone that extends from southwest to northeast NE. A consensus of CAM solutions suggest this narrow corridor will become convectively active by late afternoon. A 30-40 knot westerly mid-level jet will track across WY and nose into this region this evening, enhancing the deep-layer shear and further promoting a few severe storms, with a risk of large hail and damaging winds for a few hours. ...South TX... A weak upper trough is also tracking across TX today, where a very moist and moderately unstable air mass will develop this afternoon (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg). Winds aloft are sufficiently strong to aid in organization to any robust thunderstorms that can form. Given the 12z CAM solutions of widely scattered convection, will add a MRGL risk area for afternoon/evening hail and wind risk. Read more

WW 0248 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0248 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 248 SEVERE TSTM CO NE 292015Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Western and Central Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify across western Nebraska and spread across the watch area. The strongest cells will pose a risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Ainsworth NE to 35 miles west of Imperial NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and sporadic hail will be possible across parts of the central Plains vicinity on Tuesday. Additional strong to severe storms capable of producing hail are possible across parts of Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. ...Central High Plains east to central parts of Kansas/Nebraska... As a mid-level short-wave trough advances northeastward through the day and begins affecting the central High Plains area, scattered afternoon thunderstorm development is expected. Though convection will initially occur within what is expected to be only a weakly unstable environment near and west of the Front Range, more robust storms are expected to evolve nearer a lee trough, expected to reside over the eastern Colorado vicinity by late afternoon. While shear is not forecast to be particularly strong, modest mid-level west-southwesterlies atop low-level southeasterlies will provide a kinematic environment sufficient to allow a few updrafts to organize, with hail/wind near or in excess of severe levels possible with a few of the stronger cells. Some upscale growth is expected into the evening, as a low-level jet increases, likely allowing storms to persist and shift into the more unstable airmass anticipated at lower elevations. This may allow some severe risk to linger into the evening, before storms eventually weaken diurnally. ...Northern Iowa and Minnesota, and into western Wisconsin... A mid-level short-wave trough is progged to be crossing the eastern Dakotas early in the day, and will move into Minnesota during the afternoon. Near an associated/weak surface trough, storm development is expected as afternoon destabilization results in mixed-layer CAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. With some enhancement to the mid-level west-southwesterlies associated with the upper system, a few stronger/sustained storms are expected to evolve, with potential for a few instances of hail in excess of severe levels. This potential should peak through late afternoon, and then is expected to diminish through the evening as storm intensity subsides gradually. ..Goss.. 05/29/2023 Read more