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Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 07 Jul 2021 09:21:15 GMT

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 070906 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021 The central convection associated with Elsa dissipated for a time earlier this morning, although the latest radar and satellite imagery shows a new band forming in the northern semicircle. This decrease was likely caused by a combination of shear and dry air entrainment, and it has caused the cyclone to weaken. Aircraft and surface observations indicate the central pressure has risen to near 1004 mb, and the initial intensity is decreased to a possibly generous 55 kt based on aircraft and Doppler radar data. After a slight jog to the left, the storm has resumed a motion of 360/12. This motion should continue for the next 12 h or so until landfall occurs across the northwestern Florida peninsula. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northeast is expected by, followed by acceleration toward the northeast as Elsa moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that direction. The new track lies a little to the right of the various consensus models. While little change in strength is forecast before landfall, there is a chance that the new convection could cause a short-lived re-intensification. So, based on this possibility a hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of the west coast of Florida. After landfall, Elsa should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States, followed by some re-intensification as it accelerates back over the Atlantic. The system is expected to become extratropical by the time it reaches the Canadian Maritimes in 72 h. The new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. As Elsa moves across the western and northern Florida Peninsula today, heavy rainfall may result in considerable flash, urban, and isolated moderate river flooding. Heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. Heavy rainfall across the Northeast and New England Thursday and Friday could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida today, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible during the next several hours along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the western Florida peninsula and will continue to spread northward along the west coast of the state within the warning area through today. 4. Although the center of Elsa is expected to remain inland of the coastline from Georgia through the Carolinas during the next day or two, tropical storm conditions are expected along much of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the coast of the mid-Atlantic state by Thursday night or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 28.5N 83.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 070856 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) X(22) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) X(23) X(23) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 9(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 7(44) X(44) X(44) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 10(10) 24(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 34 X 4( 4) 28(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 9(10) 20(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 9(10) 15(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 24(26) 10(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 23(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AUGUSTA GA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 40(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 10 26(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) WAYCROSS GA 34 25 57(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) WAYCROSS GA 50 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 10 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 34 19 22(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GAINESVILLE FL 34 72 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GAINESVILLE FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 19 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) ST MARKS FL 34 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ST MARKS FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 070855 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0900 UTC WED JUL 07 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CHASSAHOWITZKA TO EGMONT KEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA FROM DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE... VIRGINIA...AND FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CHASSAHOWITZKA TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SOUTH OF CHASSAHOWITZKA TO ENGLEWOOD * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER...GEORGIA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET...SOUTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE... VIRGINIA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS...THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 83.5W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 83.5W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 83.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.2N 83.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.6N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.3N 79.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.1N 75.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N 70.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.6N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 54.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 83.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

The number of wildfires in California and the land burned continued to run ahead of last year’s numbers, which was a record year in terms of land burned. From the start of 2021 through July 4, 4,599 fires blackened 114.8 square miles (297 square kilometers), according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Associated Press (N.Y.), July 7, 2021 California fire activity was ahead of last year’s record fire season, leading Gov. Gavin Newsom to propose spending a record $2 billion on wildfire mitigation, which is twice what he proposed in January. Since the start of the year, more than 2,600 fires burned 24 square miles, or nearly five times more land than at this point last year. Associated Press (New York, N.Y.), May 24, 2021 With the warm, dry spring, Cal Fire has reported more than 1,800 fires charring nearly 9,400 acres since the start of 2021, more than double the five-year average. San Francisco Chronicle, May 11, 2021 As California wildfire officials anticipated anther historic fire season, fire activity and the burned area were already higher than in 2020. Since the start of the year, more than 1,950 fires have blackened more than 20 square miles, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. In 2020, more than 6,390 square miles burned in 10,431 wildfires, as tallied by NIFC, for the worst fire season recorded in California. The Weather Channel (Atlanta, Ga.), May 6, 2021 In a busy start to the fire season, 297 wildfires in California blackened 1,171 acres statewide on nonfederal lands, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. This count is more than double the number of blazes seen in January 2020, a historic year for wildfires in the Golden State. The five-year average for January is 108 fires, with 58 acres burned, according to Cal Fire. USA Today (McLean, Va.), Feb. 3, 2021

July 1, 2021The Oil Springs Fire is 97 percent contained as of the end of shift tonight. Great Basin Incident Management Team 3 will transition command of the fire to a Type 4 organization on July 3 at 6 a.m. The fire is in monitor status with crews patrolling containment lines around the fire perimeter.Barring unforeseen developments, this will be the final update from Great Basin Team 3 for the Oil Springs

 6/18:  Crews will continue to hold and monitor containment lines, no significant smoke in the perimeter. Today an engine will be on the 700 road on the west end to clean the roads of downed trees. One engine will be on the east end to patrol. Yesterday both hand crews were reassigned to the Buck Horn fire as well as loaning two tenders. Resources still assigned to the fire include: three engines, 1-logistics, 1-pio,1- Burn Area Emergency Rehabilitation team, 1-purchaser. This Incident will be deactivated on Monday, June 21 unless there are changes to fire

No watches are valid as of Tue Jul 6 16:35:02 UTC 2021.

MD 1161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MA...CT...RI...NJ...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NY AND EASTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Areas affected...MA...CT...RI...NJ...portions of southern NY and eastern PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061633Z - 061900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and move east-southeast across the area this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, with hail also possible with the strongest storms. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be required to address the developing risk. DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storms have developed over western NY as of 16z within an air mass characterized by moderate MLCAPE and generally weak (at or below 25 kts) effective shear values. Despite the lack of large-scale forcing, additional thunderstorm development is anticipated over central portions of NY and in the vicinity of a surface trough from the Delaware Valley into southern New England as remaining weak MLCIN is removed through daytime heating, with multiple multicell clusters moving generally east/southeast this afternoon. A belt of enhanced westerly flow averaging 35-40 kts will result in a risk for damaging downburst winds with the stronger storms and clusters. Generally weak deep-layer shear and poor mid-level lapse rates will temper the hail risk, however a few stronger updrafts may be capable of marginally severe hail. Given the expected development, one or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches is expected by early afternoon. ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/06/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 41687786 42607741 43047427 42637193 42187107 41527111 40957203 40427336 40127375 39457420 39487512 39747601 40827728 41687786 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA...NORTHEAST STATES...UPPER MIDWEST...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes are possible through tonight, mainly over the western and central Florida Peninsula, in association with Tropical Storm Elsa. Scattered damaging winds are expected this afternoon through early evening over parts of the Northeast States as well as the Upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe storms may also occur across a portion of the northern High Plains. ...Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center continues a generally northward forecast track for Tropical Storm Elsa just to the west of the Florida Peninsula through tonight; consult NHC for the latest Elsa forecast details. Accordingly, the corridor of strongest low-level shear/SRH accompanying Elsa will slowly spread north from the Florida Keys and coastal southwest Florida across western and central portions of the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday morning. Outer banded convection will tend to be located within a modest SRH environment through this afternoon, which may tend to temper a greater tornado threat with eastward extent toward the east coast of the Peninsula. Intermediate bands should have somewhat greater potential to produce brief tornadoes owing to an enlarged low-level hodograph. This tornado risk appears greatest late this afternoon into tonight across the southwest to west-central/central portions of the Florida Peninsula. ...Northeast States and southern New England... In the wake of a shortwave trough exiting the coast of northern New England, a belt of moderately strong west-northwesterly winds will persist across the region. Initially, convection will continue to develop and intensify in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes through early evening, and subsequently eastward to a lee surface trough across the Delaware Valley into southern New England. A plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg is anticipated within these regions. The enhanced lower/mid-level flow will support some organized multicell clusters capable of downbursts/wind damage. Storms are expected to reach and impact much of the Northeast Megalopolis by late afternoon/early evening. ...Montana/northern High Plains... A remnant MCV/subtle mid-level impulse over east-central Montana at midday should influence thunderstorm development later this afternoon in conjunction with moist low-level upslope flow/differential heating near the higher terrain/mountains of north-central/east-central/southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming as well as the Canadian Front Range. Coincident with 50s F dewpoints, steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective shear owing to 35-40 kt 500-mb west-northwesterly winds atop weak low-level easterlies will foster potential for a few discrete supercells. At least isolated instances of severe-caliber hail and wind are expected particularly across east-central/southeast Montana into northeast Wyoming, while additional storms may develop/move into north-central Montana via the Alberta Front Range. ...Southern Minnesota to south-central Wisconsin/Lower Michigan... A belt of likely MCV-enhanced mid-level westerlies, as noted in the 12Z observed sounding from Aberdeen SD, appear to be developing eastward per late morning WSR-88D VWP data from Minneapolis and La Crosse WI. These stronger westerlies will tend to overlie, in a parallel orientation, a roughly west/east-oriented frontal boundary and surface wave. As clouds thin and more appreciable heating occurs particularly along/south of the front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and gradually intensify through mid/late afternoon. Some supercell structures could initially occur, particularly across parts of west/southwest Wisconsin into central Wisconsin to the east-northeast of the weak surface wave. Storms should otherwise tend to develop into east-southeastward moving clusters, including some embedded bowing segments, by early evening with damaging winds as the primary risk. Some of the strong/severe storms could develop into northern Iowa and/or Lower Michigan this evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 07/06/2021 Read more

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 15:27:49 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 14:47:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 15:22:46 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061446 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Elsa's overall cloud pattern has changed little in organization since earlier today. There continues to be minimal shower and thunderstorm activity over the western semicircle of the circulation, with some bursting of deep convection near and east of the estimated center. A slightly-elevated observing site on Sand Key, near Key West Florida, recently reported a peak 1-minute wind of 49 kt with a gust to 56 kt. This supports the current intensity estimate of 50 kt. Recent WSR-88D Doppler velocities from the Key West radar suggest that the storm could be a little stronger than that. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into the storm has been delayed due to bad weather at the Keesler base, but is rescheduled to investigate Elsa in a few hours. This flight should provide updated information on the intensity of the system. Recently, the storm has been moving a little slower toward the north-northwest and the initial motion is about 340/9 kt. Elsa should move generally northward today and tonight between the western periphery of a subtropical ridge and an area of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. A gradual turn toward the north-northeast should occur on Wednesday as the system moves along the northwestern periphery of the ridge. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a trough over the eastern United States and eastern Canada. This will take the system across the southeastern United States within the next couple of days, near the coast of New England in about 3 days and near or over Atlantic Canada in 4 days or so. The official forecast is nearly the same as the previous one and, again, very close to the model consensus. The environment over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is not ideal for strengthening, with moderate westerly shear and some dry mid-level air. However, upper-level divergence ahead of a trough over the east-central Gulf could result in some intensification of the system during the next 12-24 hours. The official forecast continues to show the cyclone nearing hurricane strength while it approaches the north Florida Gulf coast, but this is at the high end of the numerical intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rain will impact Cuba today resulting in significant flooding and mudslides. As Elsa moves near or along the western Florida Peninsula through Wednesday, heavy rainfall may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible in southwest and western portions of Florida. Mid to late week, heavy rainfall across coastal Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia may result in isolated flash and urban flooding, with considerable flash and urban flooding possible across coastal Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. 2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida tonight and Wednesday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for that area. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Wednesday along a portion of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across portions of the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward along much of the west coast of the state through Wednesday morning, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Georgia coast and portions of the South Carolina coast, where tropical storm conditions are possible late Wednesday and early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.9N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 06 Jul 2021 14:45:34 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 061443 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) X(22) X(22) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 1(23) X(23) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) X(22) X(22) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 18(24) X(24) X(24) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 11(22) X(22) X(22) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 5(24) X(24) X(24) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 20(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 16(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 10(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 7( 8) 35(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 8(10) 31(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 7( 7) 39(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 38(38) 29(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) THE VILLAGES 34 1 41(42) 14(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) THE VILLAGES 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 1 13(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PATRICK AFB 34 3 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) FT PIERCE FL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 34 56 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) FT MYERS FL 34 41 3(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) VENICE FL 34 83 11(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) VENICE FL 50 14 20(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) VENICE FL 64 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 20 67(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) TAMPA FL 50 1 28(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) TAMPA FL 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 68(71) 4(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 28(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 X 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) APALACHICOLA 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 061443 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 06 2021 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WEST-CENTRAL CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 82.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM S OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba. The Tropical Storm Watch along the coast of the Florida panhandle from Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass, Florida, has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Ochlockonee River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Egmont Key to the Steinhatchee River, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River, Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic coast should monitor the progress of Elsa. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 24.9 North, longitude 82.8 West. Elsa is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a generally northward motion is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected on Wednesday, followed by a faster northeastward by late Thursday. On the forecast track, Elsa will continue to pass near the Florida Keys this morning, and move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida later today through tonight. On Wednesday morning, Elsa is forecast to make landfall along the north Florida Gulf coast and then move across the southeastern United States through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast through tonight, and Elsa could be near hurricane strength before it makes landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after Elsa moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. A C-MAN station at Sand Key, Florida, recently measured a peak 1-minute sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) gusting to 64 mph (104 km/h). The Key West International Airport also recently measured a peak sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) gusting to 59 mph (95 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area in the Florida Keys through this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward into west-central Florida and the Florida Big Bend region tonight and early Wednesday, where hurricane conditions are possible. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday night and early Thursday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Englewood, FL to Aucilla River including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Englewood, FL including Charlotte Harbor...2 to 4 ft Aucilla River to Ochlockonee River...2 to 4 ft Flamingo, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...1 to 3 ft Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1 to 2 ft Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...1 to 2 ft Mouth of St. Marys River to South Santee River, SC...1 to 2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of Cuba through tonight, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Elsa is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts and impacts this week: Across the Florida Keys into southwest and western portions of the Florida Peninsula...3 to 5 inches with localized maximum totals up to 8 inches through Wednesday, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding. Across the rest of Florida...2 to 4 inches with localized maximum totals up to 6 inches through Wednesday night, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. Across portions of southeast Georgia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches will be possible, which may result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Across coastal portions of North Carolina into southeastern Virginia...1 to 3 inches with isolated totals up to 5 inches Wednesday night through Thursday night, which could lead to isolated flash and urban flooding.. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today through tonight across the Florida Peninsula. The tornado threat will continue on Wednesday across north Florida, southeast Georgia, and the Lowcountry of South Carolina. The tornado threat should shift to the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia on Thursday. SURF: Swells will spread northward across portions of the Florida Keys and the west coast of Florida through early Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Brown/Papin

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER WEST-CENTRAL CUBA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Jul 6 the center of Elsa was located near 24.9, -82.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 061438 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC TUE JUL 06 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS...FLORIDA...HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE AUCILLA RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS * WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO NORTHWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EGMONT KEY TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF ST. MARYS RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...SOUTH CAROLINA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.8W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 82.8W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.6N 82.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.9N 83.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.3N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.8N 80.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.7N 76.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 48.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 82.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

MD 1160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 1160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0934 AM CDT Tue Jul 06 2021 Areas affected...Southwest Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061434Z - 061700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a few tornadoes will increase through the late morning and afternoon in association with Tropical Storm Elsa. DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Elsa was located approximately 55 miles west-northwest of Key West, FL at 14z and continuing to move north-northwest at 12 mph (see the most recent NHC advisory for complete details). Latest radar data from KBYX sampled 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2, and stronger convective elements were exhibiting transient rotation offshore of Monroe County. As the center of Elsa continues moving north-northwest while slowly strengthening today, low-level wind fields over southwest/central FL will strengthen. Widespread dew points in the 70s will contribute to moderate SBCAPE, and these conditions will become more favorable for a few tornadoes to develop within outer bands from the FL Keys north across southwest and into the central FL peninsula through this afternoon, likely continuing into the evening. Observational trends are being monitored and a Tornado Watch is likely prior to 17z. ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/06/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 26848270 27728302 28298285 28788227 28738151 28148106 26878095 25668085 25028091 24618138 24468181 24658223 25898230 26848270 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jul 6 13:23:02 UTC 2021.