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No watches are valid as of Wed May 17 21:31:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 17 21:31:01 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Localized damaging wind gusts remain possible in scattered storms across parts of the Southeast into early evening. Sporadic severe hail and wind gusts also remain possible with increasing thunderstorm activity across parts of the Dakotas into the southern High Plains through this early evening. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments have been made to the categorical and probabilistic lines, mostly to account for the progression of synoptic/sub-synoptic features and their influence on instability trends. Across the Southeast, the Gulf sea breeze and an assortment of outflow boundaries continue to spread inland of coastal areas. Deep-layer westerly ambient mean flow continues to weaken and (based on the latest Rapid Refresh), outside a broadening corridor across Georgia into the Carolinas, is now generally on the order of 15 kt or less. However, thermodynamic profiles with moderately steep low-level lapse rates may continue to support a risk for localized damaging wind gusts as thunderstorm activity becomes increasingly widespread through late afternoon. ..Kerr.. 05/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1056 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023/ ...Southeast... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from the Gulf Coast to a slow-moving cold front undergoing frontolysis across parts of the Deep South. Per 12Z observed soundings and visible satellite imagery, the strongest boundary-layer heating and MLCAPE should develop across southern portions of MS/AL/GA/SC, with more limited values to the north. Weak deep-layer shear and lapse rates (around 5.5-6 C/km from 700-500 mb) will mitigate organization potential and hail growth across much of the region. Pockets of marginally severe hail potential around 1 inch are possible in the most buoyant airmass over the central Gulf Coast and with somewhat greater deep shear across southern SC. Otherwise, sporadic wet microbursts producing strong gusts capable of tree damage should be the primary threat. ...Dakotas to southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be focused this afternoon along a southeast-moving cold front over the Dakotas, and southward along a lee trough to the southern High Plains. Mid-level west-northwesterlies will be weak, but strengthen with height into the upper-levels across the central High Plains and support potential for a few transient supercell structures. Though convective coverage here should be relatively less compared to farther north and south. Modest MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg should develop over the southern High Plains along the northwest periphery of PW values around 1 inch, with weak buoyancy farther north. Overall setup should support sporadic instances of lower-end severe hail and wind. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 05/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... The overlap of breezy surface winds and low relative humidity over dry fuels should be minimal on Day 2/Thursday -- generally limiting the fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Great Plains and the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Some of these may pose at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, a broad and deep mid-level low is forecast to evolve in association with strong cyclogenesis to the southeast of the Aleutians during this period. Downstream of this feature, weak mid-level ridging is forecast to build inland of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast, while low amplitude troughing lingers in a separate stream near/west of Baja California. Farther east, weak, broadly confluent mid-level flow will generally prevail across much of the U.S. However, an initially vigorous mid-level low may continue digging south of the central Canadian/U.S. border, gradually elongating across the Upper Midwest into middle Missouri Valley by late Thursday night. Downstream of this feature low amplitude ridging is forecast to shift across and east of the lower Great Lakes, in the wake of a vigorous impulse accelerating east of the Canadian Maritimes. At the same time, downstream of the Baja mid-level troughing, short wave ridging may tend to build across the northern Mexican Plateau and southern Great Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. However, this may be slowed by a smaller-scale perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is forecast to gradually progress around its northern periphery. Farther east, broad, weak mid-level troughing is forecast to continue slowly migrating eastward across the Southeast. In the wake of the stronger lead northern branch perturbation, and the weaker lead southern branch perturbation, boundary-layer moisture across the southern Great Plains into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies will initially be seasonably modest. Substantive moisture advection appears unlikely, but evapotranspiration may contribute to moistening across this region during the day, as well as ahead of a significant cold front accompanying the northern branch low digging south of the international border. A significant preceding cold front appears likely to stall and weaken across parts of the southern Atlantic coast into Tennessee Valley vicinity. ...Southern High Plains... While models suggest that mid-level lapse rates will be initially modest across much of the region, some gradual steepening with lower/mid-tropospheric warming is forecast through the period. During the day, it appears that the boundary-layer, becoming deeply mixed with daytime heating, may become sufficiently unstable to support scattered thunderstorm posing a risk for marginally severe hail and wind. Deep-layer wind fields and shear appear likely to remain generally weak, but it is possible that a 30-40 kt west-southwesterly jet streak in the 700-500 mb layer (accompanying the subtropical perturbation) could enhance convection as it spreads across the southern Texas Panhandle/South Plains into Red River vicinity Thursday evening. An outflow boundary from prior convection, or at least a zone of stronger differential surface heating across the Texas Panhandle into southwestern Oklahoma/western North Texas, may become a focus for stronger lower/mid tropospheric warm advection by Thursday evening. This could support an isolated supercell structure or two, and eventually an upscale growing cluster which could be accompanied by strong surface gusts for a period late Thursday evening, before forcing shifts to the cool side of the boundary and convective intensities wane overnight. ...Upper Midwest... The cold core of the approaching mid-level low/trough is forecast to remain displaced to the northwest of the surface warm sector. Coupled with the modest warm sector boundary-layer moisture, maximum instability is forecast to remain weak and largely confined to a narrow pre-frontal corridor. However, it appears that this may be sufficient to support a developing line of storms by late Thursday afternoon across parts of north central through southwest Wisconsin and adjacent portions of Minnesota/Iowa, aided by favorable large-scale forcing for ascent. This may coincide with sufficient deep-layer shear beneath 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level flow, to support a few supercell structures posing at least some risk for severe hail and wind gusts, before convection weakens after dark while spreading southeastward. ..Kerr.. 05/17/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed May 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 16 21:42:06 UTC 2023.

WW 0225 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BNA TO 50 SE LOZ TO 20 S CRW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804 ..WEINMAN..05/16/23 ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...MRX...OHX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC195-162240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PIKE TNC001-009-013-025-029-035-049-057-063-067-073-087-089-093-105- 129-133-141-145-151-155-159-163-165-169-173-189-162240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLOUNT CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE COCKE CUMBERLAND FENTRESS GRAINGER HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JACKSON JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON MORGAN OVERTON PUTNAM ROANE SCOTT SEVIER SMITH SULLIVAN SUMNER TROUSDALE UNION WILSON Read more

WW 225 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA WV 161630Z - 170000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Kentucky Northern Tennessee Western Virginia Southern West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Bowing lines of convection will spread east across the watch area through early evening. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard with this activity. The most intense cells may produce hail, and a brief spin-up tornado or two also will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Jackson KY to 60 miles south southwest of London KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0226 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 226 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/16/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...MRX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-003-005-009-011-021-023-027-033-035-037-057-059-063-067- 069-077-081-097-111-115-121-135-145-151-157-159-169-171-181-183- 185-189-193-197-199-162140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CASWELL CATAWBA CHATHAM DAVIDSON DAVIE DURHAM FORSYTH FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GUILFORD IREDELL MCDOWELL MADISON MITCHELL ORANGE PERSON RANDOLPH ROCKINGHAM ROWAN STOKES SURRY VANCE WAKE WARREN WATAUGA WILKES YADKIN YANCEY TNC019-059-091-171-179-162140- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 226 SEVERE TSTM NC TN VA WV 162000Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 226 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern North Carolina Northeast Tennessee Southern Virginia Extreme Southern West Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated discrete cells will pose a risk for severe gusts and hail late this afternoon. By this evening, a bowing line of storms is expected to spread east across the watch area, posing a risk for damaging wind swaths. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles west northwest of Lynchburg VA to 5 miles south southeast of Hickory NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Leitman Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA....SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may continue to gradually intensify, with increasing risk of producing damaging wind gusts while spreading across the Cumberland Plateau and adjacent Appalachians, through the Virginia and North Carolina Piedmont by late evening. ...20Z Update... Primary adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic lines have been made to account for the progression of synoptic/sub-synoptic features and their influence on ongoing trends concerning destabilization. For further details, please refer to the 1630Z outlook discussion (appended below), and the latest SPC mesoscale discussions. ..Kerr.. 05/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023/ ...KY/TN to VA/NC Vicinity... A shortwave mid/upper trough will move across the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians today, and into the Mid-Atlantic by this evening. This feature will allow midlevel flow to increase through the day, with a belt of 40-50 kt westerly flow overspreading western KY/TN to coastal VA/NC. At the surface, a weak low was analyzed over western KY at 15z. A composite warm front/outflow boundary extended eastward from the low across northern/central KY. This will likely demarcate the northern extent of greater severe potential/coverage. A weak surface lee trough is also evident across the VA/NC Piedmont. The surface low should track roughly east/northeast through the day with a trailing cold front spreading across the region this afternoon/evening. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F (low/mid 60s with eastward extent to the lee of the Appalachians), and strong heating south of the warm front where mostly clear skies exist, will allow for weak to moderate destabilization. Low-level flow will remain somewhat weak through 1-2 km, but increasing speed with height will result in effective shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt, supporting organized convection. Initial semi-discrete cells are expected, posing a risk for hail and damaging gusts. Steep low-level lapse rates will support strong outflow and convection will likely transition toward bows as storms shift east across the spine of the Appalachians. A swath of strong gusts may persist east of the Appalachians in a moist and unstable downstream environment. While low-level flow will remain weak, modestly enlarged forecast hodographs and some increase in effective SRH suggest a few spin-ups along the eastward-advancing gust front will be possible given a favorable low-level thermodynamic environment. For short term severe potential across KY/TN vicinity, see MCD 800. More than one round of strong/severe thunderstorm activity may be possible across the VA/NC Piedmont. Initial activity associated with the lee trough may pose a hail/wind risk, while any emerging bow/MCS by late afternoon/early evening may also result in a damaging wind risk. ...Northern MS/AL/GA into Upstate SC... This area will remain south of strong midlevel flow, with mainly modestly, mostly unidirectional westerly deep-layer flow forecast. Effective shear around 20-25 kt amid moderate instability will allow for some transient/loosely organized cells. Steep low-level lapse rates will foster strong outflows and a few locally strong/damaging gusts are possible. ...High Plains... A shortwave trough currently over SD will track southward today into the high plains of eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS. Strong heating over this region, coupled with dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s, will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and CAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are expected, with sufficient deep-layer shear for high-based supercell structures capable of gusty winds and hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A dry post-frontal air mass will be in place across the Northeast on Day 2/Wednesday, as a belt of strong deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreads the region. While cooler temperatures over parts of western/central NY, VT, and most of NH will limit RH reductions, warmer temperatures farther east will allow for 25-30 percent minimum RH. These dry conditions, coupled with sustained northwesterly surface winds near 15 mph (with higher gusts), will favor another day of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm clusters may develop across parts of the Southeast Wednesday afternoon, and from the Rockies into the adjacent Great Plains by Wednesday evening. A few of these may be accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into Atlantic remains amplified, with a number of embedded highs and lows in various states of evolution. The center of one mid-level high may slowly shift from the British Columbia coast vicinity into northern British Columbia, as one perturbation progresses around its eastern through southern periphery, across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night. Downstream, a deeper mid-level low is forecast to dig south of the eastern Canadian Prairies into the central Canadian/U.S. Border area, while an even more prominent low and associated mid-level troughing pivot offshore of the northern Atlantic coast, and across the Canadian Maritimes. In the wake of the lead perturbation, a broadly confluent mid-level regime will slowly begin to shift east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with weak low-amplitude troughing shifting east of the middle Mississippi Valley and across the central Gulf of Mexico. In lower levels, models indicate that the center of seasonably cold surface ridging will build southeast of the upper Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic by 12Z Thursday, with the cold front on the leading edge of this air mass advancing southward and southwestward through the Carolinas, Tennessee and middle Mississippi Valleys. Ahead of the front, seasonably warm and moist air will generally be maintained across parts of the eastern Gulf/south Atlantic Coast states through at least much of this period. Another fairly significant cold intrusion is forecast to accompany the trailing mid-level perturbation, across and to the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies. Although boundary-layer moisture preceding the associated cold front appears likely to remain seasonably modest, stronger surface heating and deep boundary-layer mixing within a corridor across the higher plains probably will become a focus for destabilization and thunderstorm development. ...Southeast... Beneath broadly cyclonic westerly mid-level flow, boundary-layer moisture (characterized by mid 60s to around 70F surface dew points) may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg in a corridor roughly centered from central Mississippi into southern South Carolina by late Wednesday afternoon. It appears that this environment will become supportive of fairly widespread thunderstorm development from mid afternoon into early evening. Despite ambient westerly deep-layer mean wind speeds near or below 20 kt, this may be sufficient to contribute to localized damaging wind gusts, aided by modestly steep low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading. ...Rockies into adjacent Great Plains... Much of the region will remain south of the influence of the primary digging low, but forcing for ascent downstream of weak northern (across the Great Basin) and southern (near Baja California) branch troughing may provide support for scattered thunderstorm development across and east of the Rockies. Beneath generally weak west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow, this activity will tend to advect off the higher terrain through Wednesday evening. As convection spreads into the Great Plains, the warm and deeply mixed boundary-layer may possess sufficient moisture and CAPE to support upscale growing clusters with increasing potential to produce strong wind gusts, before boundary-layer instability wanes later Wednesday evening. ..Kerr.. 05/16/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161707
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Cangialosi

No watches are valid as of Mon May 15 22:05:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0799 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MO...SOUTHWEST KY...AND WESTERN TN
Mesoscale Discussion 0799 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0502 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Areas affected...Southeast MO...southwest KY...and western TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152202Z - 160000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of large hail and damaging gusts are possible during the next few hours. DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convection over portions of southeast MO into western TN, diurnal heating (upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures) has resulted in airmass recovery -- where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the lower 70s. As additional thunderstorms move into this corridor of moderate surface-based instability this afternoon/early evening, backed surface winds (albeit weak) beneath 25-30 kt of midlevel westerly flow will support briefly organized clusters (and transient supercell structures). Primary concerns with this activity will be isolated large hail and locally damaging gusts. ..Weinman.. 05/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 37118923 36828867 36638840 36328825 35918831 35728851 35568876 35468902 35438947 35538993 36119044 36679054 37049047 37209025 37288983 37118923 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 15 21:17:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 PM CDT Mon May 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN ARKANSAS...FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... CORRECTED GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms producing a few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible today from parts of the Ozarks into the Tennessee Valley vicinity. ...20Z Update... Some adjustments to the categorical and probabilistic outlook lines have been made, but mostly just to account for the slow progression of the synoptic/sub-synoptic features and associated trends concerning destabilization. Please refer to the 1630Z outlook discussion (appended below) and the latest SPC mesoscale discussions for further details. ..Kerr.. 05/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Mon May 15 2023/ ...Ozarks to TN Valley vicinity... An upper ridge will persist over the Southeast much of today, while a rather nondescript/weak flow regime remains in place across the Plains. At the surface, a weak low/MCV is featured over eastern OK late this morning. This feature will slowly migrate east/northeast through southern MO through the period. Abundant boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 F) and heating into upper 70s/low 80s F will support weak to moderate destabilization ahead of the MCV. Deep-layer flow will remain light, though the MCV will likely enhance low/midlevel winds modestly, providing around 25 kt effective shear magnitudes. This should support some loosely organized, sporadically strong cells/bows. Strong/locally damaging gusts and hail will be the main hazards with this activity. While low-level flow will remain very weak, vertically veering winds in the lowest 1-2 km will produce very modestly curved hodographs with some minor SRH ahead of the MCV in conjunction with mean mixing ratios near 15-16 g/kg. Tornado potential is expected to remain very low, but a funnel cloud or brief spin-up could occur this afternoon, mainly across southern MO. Further east toward Middle TN into adjacent portions of northern AL/extreme northwest GA, shear profile will be even more modest, mainly relegating afternoon activity to pulse-like convection. However, stronger instability and a more deeply mixed boundary-layer could support potential for water-loaded downdrafts and isolated downbursts producing locally strong gusts with any more transient intense cells this afternoon. The strongest cells could also produce small hail. Read more