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WW 228 SEVERE TSTM TX 191900Z - 200100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central to north Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Initial storm development is underway around the Metroplex along an outflow boundary. Additional storms should form later southwest into central Texas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Dallas TX to 55 miles west southwest of Waco TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 227... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29020. ...Grams Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concern remains low for Saturday. ..Bentley.. 05/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... The large scale pattern Saturday will encompass a weakening upper-low across the southwestern US, cooler post-frontal northerly flow across the Plains, and a trough exiting the far northeastern US. Overall, this pattern will yield light winds across the CONUS, limiting fire spread potential and precluding the need to include any areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Great Plains to southwest Arkansas through about 11 PM CDT. Large hail should be the main threat in terms of coverage, with damaging winds also possible. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunder area were made based on frontal progression. The remainder of the forecast remains on track and is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Fri May 19 2023/ ...Southern Great Plains to AR... A surface cold front will continue to plunge down the Great Plains as ridging builds south through tonight. This boundary, along with a corridor of pre-frontal confluence ahead of it, and a post-frontal upslope regime behind it, will be the focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the mid to late afternoon. A decayed MCS along the OK/AR and its poor mid-level lapse rates/remnant cloud debris will serve as the northern/eastern limiter to the organized severe threat in AR later today. An MCV trailing to its west in central OK should aid in thunderstorm redevelopment across southeast OK to the Ark-La-Tex later this afternoon. This region will lie in the northeast gradient of surface-based instability with weakness in the wind profile above 500 mb. Nevertheless, modest low-level hodograph curvature should foster a few supercells that consolidate into a cluster across at least southwest AR before weakening. More favorable upper-level winds will exist farther southwest into central TX owing to a southern-stream sub-tropical jet downstream of a quasi-stationary low near the northern Gulf of CA. This combined with a corridor of large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) and potential for pre-frontal development should favor a few supercells capable of producing significant severe hail. This threat may remain relatively confined owing to greater MLCIN and lack of ascent with southern extent, and eventual undercutting of the cold front. Storm-scale clustering should support a brief uptick in severe wind gust potential, but a broader MCS/greater wind coverage threat appears unlikely given weak to somewhat difluent low-level flow this evening. Finally, a corridor of post-frontal discrete supercell development is likely across the northern portion of the Permian Basin as convection develops off the higher terrain of southeast NM. Large hail will be the main threat here as well with the overall spatial extent limited by the undercutting nature of the cold front and diminishing of buoyancy from north to south behind it. ...Central OR... Modest low to mid-level moisture will persist in a south-southwesterly flow regime across OR/WA. Forcing for ascent appears to be nebulous, so terrain circulations will be the primary driver of thunderstorm development later this afternoon off the higher terrain of south-central OR. Vertical shear will be rather weak, but a couple multicell clusters could produce isolated, marginal severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail in the late afternoon to early evening. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...NORTHWEST...AND SOUTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across much of the Southeast, from the Edwards Plateau into the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, and parts of central Oregon and Washington. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough across the Great Lakes region will pivot through the Northeast on Saturday. Modest mid-level flow enhancement will extend into parts of the Southeast. Upper-level ridging in the West will shift slowly eastward. A shortwave trough will also continue to approach the Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will progress farther southward through the southern Plains and Southeast. ...Southeast... A very moist airmass (likely upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) is expected across the region. An MCV currently in the Plains is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Mid-South. Some precipitation and cloud cover will be present across parts of northern MS/AL/GA associated with this feature. Farther to the south and west, at least filtered insolation will occur and lead to greater boundary-layer destabilization by the afternoon (nearing 2000 J/kg in some areas). Widely scattered to scattered storms do appear possible both near the MCV and along the front, though there is still variability in guidance as to where a greater concentration of storms would exist. Environmentally, a few more intense storms could occur in within the central AL/MS border vicinity. Here, greater surface heating would combine with modestly greater shear from larger-scale trough and MCV. ...Northwest... Little change in the pattern is expected between Friday and Saturday. Continued southwesterly flow aloft should help to maintain modest low-level moisture. With the approach of the trough, deep-layer shear will likely be slightly stronger on Saturday and storm coverage may also be greater as well. Storms will be capable of isolated damaging winds and perhaps marginally severe hail. ...South Texas... Uncertainty remains high in the exact convective evolution within the Rio Grande Valley/South Texas. Convection may be ongoing early in the period as overnight storms from the Edwards Plateau move southward. How far south such activity will reach is not certain. Two other possible scenarios are for storms to develop along outflow from that early morning activity as well as some potential for storms to move across the international border later in the afternoon. With the environment supportive of damaging winds and large hail, a Marginal risk area will be maintained for these possibilities. ..Wendt.. 05/19/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri May 19 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Cattle sales at the auction in Kingdom City were about double that from one year ago as tremendous prices and short hay supplies led farmers to sell. Fall calves were being sold early to conserve feed for the cows. Grass growth was far less than it ought to be. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 18, 2023

No watches are valid as of Thu May 18 21:37:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0816 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0816 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Areas affected...portions of southwest Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182123Z - 182330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to briefly severe thunderstorms producing strong gusts and hail may persist another 1-2 hours before weakening. DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong to briefly severe thunderstorms have developed in low-level confluence amid moderate instability late this afternoon. Vertical shear is very weak across the area and will remain so through the evening. This activity will shift generally east very slowly, within a narrow axis of instability before boundary-layer inhibition increases. Modestly steep midlevel lapse rates may support marginally severe hail, while a well-mixed boundary-layer contributing to steep low-level lapse rates, and weak low-level flow will foster strong outflow winds. Convective intensity should diminish this evening and with eastward extent. Further south, addition convection has developed west of the Rio Grande across northeast Mexico. This activity should weaken as it approaches the river and perhaps crosses into Texas. However, poor vertical shear and little forcing for ascent to maintain any organization/stronger intensity should preclude much severe potential. ..Leitman/Smith.. 05/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 29710211 32790130 32980060 32890002 32529978 31869998 31410007 28370041 29410138 29710211 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Generally isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central to southern Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, and the Tennessee Valley this afternoon and evening. Relatively greater potential for severe hail and a tornado or two is apparent over the Texas Panhandle vicinity. ...20Z Update... Minor changes to the general thunderstorm lines were made based on observed trends. The outlook is otherwise unchanged. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu May 18 2023/ ...Southern/central High Plains... Relatively unfocused and generally marginal severe potential is anticipated this afternoon and evening as scattered thunderstorms develop from the Front Range to the Trans-Pecos and spread east. The broad cat 1-MRGL risk covers the bulk of the area with an embedded cat 2-SLGT in the TX Panhandle vicinity where a few supercells are most probable. Mid-level lapse rates should not be particularly steep east of the higher terrain. Weak deep-layer shear is anticipated south of the TX Panhandle, while weak buoyancy will be common north of the Panhandles. As such, the central High Plains portion should tend to favor an isolated/marginal severe hail threat initially, transitioning to more of a locally strong gust threat as storms congeal eastward. Most of the west TX portion should tend to be high-based initially and overall favor strong to locally severe wind gusts. The TX Panhandle vicinity will largely be driven by differential heating surrounding a persistent stratus deck that should slowly erode but may not completely dissipate. 12Z CAM consensus suggests an initial round of discrete cells may form around mid-afternoon, with a more probable later round of higher-based clusters spreading east from the Sangre de Cristos during the early evening. Low-level hodograph curvature should increase during the early evening and become moderately enlarged. These may support a few supercells as effective bulk shear increases to 30-35 kts. This could yield a relatively greater corridor of severe hail potential before storms further consolidate and gradually diminish after sunset. The tornado threat will be conditionally dependent on maintaining a discrete supercell mode during the early evening within the weakly focused baroclinic zone. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough over southern Manitoba will slowly move southeast towards the Twin Ports area tonight. Leading and reinforcing surface cold fronts are expected to push southeast, with the lead one focusing isolated severe potential during the late afternoon to early evening. A plume of around 1 inch PW values characterized by mid to upper 50s surface dew points should be confined along the front and yield a corridor of weak buoyancy from northeast IA/southeast MN into central WI. While the strongest belt of mid-level flow will lag behind the leading front, moderate deep-layer shear will favor a few organized updrafts capable of isolated severe hail and damaging winds. This severe threat is expected to last up to around 3-4 hours due to the narrow instability axis and onset of nocturnal cooling. ...Southeast... Generally weak deep-layer flow will preclude organized convection across the Southeast this afternoon, but sporadic wet microbursts producing locally strong wind gusts will be possible. One area of somewhat more focused downburst and marginally severe hail threat remains apparent ahead of a slowly decaying mid-level trough drifting east from the Mid-South to the TN Valley. Here, relatively colder mid-level temperatures may compensate for the weak shear regime and support a marginal severe threat as scattered thunderstorms form and drift east through south. Read more

MD 0815 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...INTO THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 0815 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Areas affected...parts of northeastern New Mexico...adjacent southeastern Colorado...into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181952Z - 182215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development may gradually consolidate into a growing cluster of storms while spreading into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT. The potential for severe weather appears relatively low in the near term, but could increase later this evening. DISCUSSION...Beneath weak mid-level troughing crossing the Rockies, orographic forcing for ascent is contributing to a gradual increase in thunderstorm activity near the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and along the Raton Mesa to the east. This appears to be occurring in the presence of modest deep-layer shear (largely due to veering of winds with height), but deep-layer mean ambient flow is weak (on the order of 15 kt) and south-southwesterly, which will support only a slow progression into the adjacent plains. As activity advects eastward, it does appear that southeasterly low-level inflow will gradually emanate from an increasingly moist and potentially unstable boundary-layer. This is expected to support further upscale growth and intensification through the remainder of the afternoon. Gradually, stronger convection may begin to focus along an increasingly better-defined zone of stronger differential surface heating southwest through south of Dalhart and Amarillo. Deep-layer shear may be marginally supportive of a supercell structure or two. Perhaps more substantively, various model output have been suggestive that a modest mesocale convective vortex could evolve in association with the persistent growing cluster of storms. If/when this occurs, strengthening rear inflow and downdrafts may be accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts, but it is possible that this might not be until well after sunset. ..Kerr/Grams.. 05/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 36350443 36980318 36890167 35810109 34930214 34410314 34250416 34900516 35500490 36350443 Read more

Some of the wheat crop in Kansas is blue from lack of moisture. The plants would typically be knee-height at this time of year, but many were merely shin-high. Some plants were yellow. Many plants were too small and damaged to be worth harvesting. The spikelets that would normally contain kernels were pale and shriveled, and held no grain. This year’s yield was anticipated to be lower than last year’s. Wheat supply issues leave domestic wheat prices so high that the U.S. was buying European wheat. Chicago Tribune (Ill.), May 18, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 05/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 PM CDT Wed May 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will track eastward across the Great Lakes region. Preceding the trough, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast -- where a tightening surface pressure gradient is expected. As a result, breezy/gusty surface winds are possible; however, marginal RH reductions (35-40 percent) should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere, the overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH over dry fuels should be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Estimates for Nebraska’s wheat crop include a significant drop in production and an uptick in abandoned acres. Due to drought, the crop is short, and stands are thin, according to the executive director with the Nebraska Wheat Board. The crop is estimated at 30 million bushels, down from an average of about 50 million. About 10% will be abandoned. The tour found yields ranging from 25 to 35 bushels per acre, while yields in the southern Panhandle were 40 bpa. The quality should be average to good due to drought stress. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 18, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu May 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms are expected Friday from parts of the southern Plains eastward across Arkansas to parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough will move through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. Attendant to this system, a surface cold front will extend from the Upper Midwest southwestward into the central/southern Plains. While upper-level ridging will be the primary feature across the West, a modest upper-level low will remain across the lower Colorado River Valley/Baja. Some mid-level flow enhancement across the southern High Plains into the Red River region will promote a weak, secondary surface low/dryline from perhaps southwest Oklahoma into parts of central Texas. ...Central Texas into Arkansas... Precipitation is expected to be ongoing during the morning in Oklahoma in association with an MCV from High Plains convection on Thursday. The location of this feature will determine the northward extent of severe potential. Along and south of the outflow/effective warm front, surface heating of low/mid 60s F dewpoints should promote 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. While shear will not be overly strong, flow enhancement from the MCV will allow for modest storm organization. Initial storms would be capable of large hail before storm interactions and upscale growth occur and damaging wind become the primary concern. Along the dryline in Texas, there is less certainty in terms of storm initiation, particularly with southward extent. However, along the outflow/dryline intersection, enough convergence should exist to initiate thunderstorms. Steeper mid-level lapse rates and greater surface heating farther west should promote larger buoyancy (in excess of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Shear will be weaker as will anvil-level winds. Even so, initial storm development again will pose a risk of large hail (potentially up to 2 in.). The main uncertainty is where any potential clustering of storms may occur across the broader Slight risk area. Where this occurs, cold pool organization would bring potential for smaller corridors of greater wind damage potential. The spatial extent of the Slight risk intends to capture the envelope of solutions in guidance. ...South Plains into central New Mexico... Storm development is possible along the higher terrain in New Mexico and along the southward sagging cold front into the South Plains. Modest mid-level winds will be orthogonal to the boundary. A few semi-discrete cells are possible. Isolated large hail and damaging winds may occur before storms move north of the boundary and weaken. ...Arizona... Anomalous moisture in the region due to the upper low will promote widely scattered to scattered storms along the Mogollon Rim. Weak mid-level northeasterly flow could help push a cluster off the terrain, but such a scenario is uncertain. Should this occur, strong wind gusts would be possible. Confidence is too low for introducing unconditional severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/18/2023 Read more

913
ABPZ20 KNHC 181717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu May 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Loveland Reservoir was drained in November 2022 amid drought to provide drinking water and other water needs to South Bay communities. The low water level killed the fish. Recreation has been on hold since early 2023 for lack of water. The reservoir’s ecosystem needs to be rebuilt after the fish died. FOX 5 San Diego (Calif.), May 17, 2023

The Kansas wheat crop in 1963 was a disaster, and the 2023 harvest was shaping up to be similarly disastrous. The final tour prediction was for a statewide average of 30.0 bushels per acre (bpa). Of the 6.6 million acres USDA predicts producers will harvest, compared to the planted acreage of 8.1 million, that would work out to a total of 198 million bushels. However, the official tour projection for total production of wheat to be harvested in Kansas was lower than that, at 178 million bushels, indicating that tour participants thought abandonment might be quite a bit higher than normal at 26.75%. Crop abandonment estimates for the western part of the state reached and even topped 50%. The wheat is short, making harvest difficult or impossible, in some cases. DTN – The Progressive Farmer (Burnsville, Minn.), May 18, 2023 The Kansas Association of Wheat Growers wheat tour this week has found that the crop is far less than desired for lack of rain. Some farmers have considered or already have abandoned their wheat crop this year, especially in western Kansas. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), May 18, 2023

Drought has hurt the winter wheat and has produced less grazing for cattle in western Kansas, leaving farmers wondering what to feed them. A large farm in Hodgeman County has about 30,000 head of cattle and is feeding them silage. This will be the first year that they do not have a 10,000 ton carry over of silage because it will all have been fed to the livestock. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), May 16, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed May 17 21:31:01 UTC 2023.