2 years 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SEVERAL
AREAS OF THE CONUS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with wind and hail remain possible in
several areas of the country this afternoon and evening: the
southern High Plains, the South Carolina vicinity, south to east
Florida, the interior Northwest, and the eastern Dakotas.
...20Z Update...
Some minor changes have been made to the general thunderstorm lines
across NC/VA, but severe probabilities remain unchanged. The
potential for a supercell or two late this afternoon into this
evening remains evident across the TX Trans Pecos, with generally
more disorganized threats scattered elsewhere across the CONUS.
For more information regarding the short-term threats, see MCD 945
across Florida, MCD 946 across South Carolina, and MCD 947 across
eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains. Also see the previous
discussion below for more information.
..Dean.. 06/07/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023/
...Southern High Plains...
A southern-stream upper jet will gradually expand east across much
of northern Mexico. Within the left-exit region of this jet,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos and eastern NM. Proximity of a
low-amplitude mid-level ridge will yield weak deep-layer shear north
of the Trans-Pecos, with the latter seeing strengthening flow during
the late afternoon into the evening. Here, a couple supercells
should form with a primary threat of isolated large hail before
clustering towards the Rio Grande. Farther north, loosely organized
multicell clusters should dominate with sporadic occurrences of
severe hail and wind possible through early tonight.
...Southeast...
Scattered thunderstorm development appears to be commencing across
the south to eastern FL peninsula, with additional storms likely to
form later this afternoon near a southward-sagging cold front in the
SC vicinity. Belts of 30-40 kt west-southwesterlies will persist
across central to south FL ahead of a low-amplitude trough over the
east-central Gulf and along the frontal zone to the south of the
amplified trough across the Northeast. While low-level flow will be
weak over FL and predominately westerly over the SC vicinity,
adequate effective bulk shear will exist for transient supercell and
multicell structures capable of isolated damaging winds and
lower-end severe hail.
...Northeast CA to southwest MT...
A weakening upper low will drift northeast from southeast CA into
southern NV. This will result in gradual decay of the mid-level wind
field. However, adequate speed shear from the mid to upper levels
should still support semi-organized multicell clustering later this
afternoon, mainly across southern to eastern OR and the southern
half of ID. Similar to yesterday, isolated severe wind gusts will be
the primary threat, with small to marginally severe hail also
possible.
...Eastern Dakotas...
A mid to upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the
central Dakotas. A pocket of moderate buoyancy should develop across
a portion of the eastern Dakotas where boundary-layer dewpoints can
hold from 60-64 F. While deep-layer flow will remain weak,
directional change with height from light low-level
south-southeasterlies to weak mid-level northerlies may yield a
strip of 15-20 kt effective bulk shear. A few marginally severe wind
and hail events from pulse to weakly organized multicells remain
possible during the late afternoon to early evening.
Read more2 years 1 month ago
A burn advisory notice was issued for Lycoming County on June 6 as grass turned yellow and brown and fires were more common. Record low groundwater levels and stream levels, very dry conditions, and no significant rainfall in the forecast have elevated the potential for wildfires to “very high” throughout the county, according to the director of the Lycoming County Department of Public Safety.
Williamsport Sun-Gazette (Pa.), June 7, 2023
2 years 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
No changes; localized fire-weather conditions will remain possible
across the Great Lakes D2/Thursday, but noticeably weaker winds
should be less favorable for widespread fire concerns. See the
previous discussion for more information.
..Lyons.. 06/07/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023/
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will continue to slowly sag southward along the
East Coast while weak, cyclonic upper flow will prevail across the
western U.S. tomorrow/Thursday. Surface high pressure will dominate
much of the central and eastern CONUS. Dry low-level air will
continue to drift southward from the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic into
the Tennessee Valley/Carolina Piedmont during the afternoon. At the
moment, guidance consensus suggests that surface winds will be weak,
with fire weather highlights withheld this outlook. Likewise,
seasonably dry low-level air will meander across the Southwest, but
the lack of an appreciable surface wind field precludes fire weather
highlights.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more2 years 1 month ago
Many blueberry growers in Van Buren County were irrigating to keep their blueberry crop looking good amid the drought. On the bright side, the hot, dry weather has limited the amount of fungus on the plants.
WMUK (Kalamazoo, Mich.), June 7, 2023
2 years 1 month ago
Indianapolis’ water provider, Citizens Energy Group, encourages its customers to conserve water and limit lawn watering amid abnormally dry conditions.
Indy Star (Indianapolis, Ind.), June 7, 2023
2 years 1 month ago
The Eastern Shore counties of Northampton and Accomack remained in a drought advisory, despite recent rainfall. The drought advisories for other parts of the state were lifted in mid-May.
WESR-FM (Onley, Va.), June 7, 2023
The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality issued the drought watch advisory for five of the Drought Evaluation Regions due to current drought conditions and to make the public aware that dryness could pose a problem this year. The affected areas include 28 counties and 11 cities.
These are the regions and localities in the advisory:
Chowan: Brunswick, Dinwiddie, Greensville, Lunenburg, Nottoway, Prince George, Southampton, Surry, and Sussex counties, and the cities of Emporia and Franklin.
Eastern Shore: Accomack and Northampton counties.
Northern Coastal Plain: Caroline, King George, King William, King and Queen, Essex, Richmond, Westmoreland, Gloucester, Mathews, Middlesex, Lancaster, and Northumberland counties.
Southeast Virginia: Isle of Wight County, and the cities of Suffolk, Chesapeake, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach.
York-James: Charles City, James City, New Kent, and York counties, and the cities of Hampton, Newport News, Poquoson, and Williamsburg.
WCAV-TV (Charlottesville, Va.), April 26, 2023
2 years 1 month ago
MD 0944 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EXTREME EASTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0944
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023
Areas affected...South Carolina into extreme eastern Georgia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062155Z - 062330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
storms through the evening, with a gradual weakening trend likely
after sunset. A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have been increasing in intensity across
SC over the past hour or so, with MRMS mosaic radar data indicating
30 dBZ echo tops exceeding 45 kft and MESH showing hail approaching
1 inch in diameter. Shear across the region is poor, though mid 60s
F surface dewpoints amid 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates (per 21Z
mesoanalysis) is contributing to 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. The stronger
pulse storms will be capable of producing damaging gusts and perhaps
an instance of severe hail. After sunset, nocturnal cooling should
result in waning storm intensity. Nonetheless, the severe threat
should remain isolated at best and a WW issuance is not expected.
..Squitieri/Kerr.. 06/06/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...
LAT...LON 34748269 34898170 34657984 34297932 33667940 33027969
32658011 32368066 32208104 32258139 32928248 33738287
34748269
Read more2 years 1 month ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023
Valid 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHERN
IDAHO...NEW MEXICO/TEXAS TRANS-PECOS...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTH
CAROLINA VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with threats of damaging winds and
large hail will be possible through this evening across several
portions of the country: the South Carolina vicinity, the Northeast,
northern California to northern Utah/southern Idaho, New
Mexico/Texas Trans-Pecos, and south Florida.
...20Z Update...
Overall forecast outlined in the previous outlook remains valid.
Thunderstorms remain possible across a large portion of the CONUS,
with stronger storms anticipated in a few areas, including portions
of the Northeast, northern CA into the Great Basin, and southern
High Plains. Each of these areas are addressed in the previous
discussion. Additional details for the Northeast can be found in
recently issued MCD #941, and for portions of northern California,
north and central Nevada, and western Utah in MCD #942. In all,
generally modest buoyancy and the lack of stronger flow aloft is
expected to preclude a more widespread severe-thunderstorm threat.
..Mosier.. 06/06/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023/
...SC Vicinity...
A plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg centered
on north GA will shift east into SC later this afternoon. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms will develop along and just ahead of a
weak surface trough shifting slowly south across NC to upstate SC.
The region will lie within the gradient of weak to moderate
mid-level northwesterlies, well to the southwest of a deep upper low
over the Canadian Maritimes. While low-level flow will remain weak
and veered to the west-southwest, 15-25 kt effective bulk shear
should support some multicell clustering and a threat for isolated
damaging winds and severe hail.
...Northeast...
A secondary mid-level impulse embedded within the larger-scale
trough on the backside of the deep upper low over the Canadian
Maritimes should aid in isolated to scattered higher-based
convection. MLCAPE will remain weak owing to surface dew points only
in the mid 40s to around 50 F. But moderate speed shear through the
cloud-bearing layer should foster small to marginally severe hail
growth in the deeper cores. This combined with an inverted-v
thermodynamic profile will support a threat for locally damaging
winds. Refer to the SPC Fire Weather Outlook for additional
information.
...Northern CA to northern UT/southern ID...
An upper low will wobble over the San Joaquin Valley through
tonight. A belt of modest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 600-1200 J/kg
should develop at peak heating within a largely west/east-oriented
arc across northern CA to northern UT/southern ID. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected within this buoyancy plume by late
afternoon. While moderate mid-level flow will generally be displaced
to the south, 20-30 kt southeasterlies around 500 mb will support
some multicell clustering and a primary threat of isolated severe
wind gusts. Small to marginally severe hail will also be possible in
deeper updrafts.
...NM and the TX Trans-Pecos...
Downstream of the CA upper low, scattered thunderstorms will develop
within a modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 700-1400
J/kg. The bulk of stronger mid-level flow should remain displaced
west of the buoyancy/higher PW plume in AZ, as a low-amplitude
mid-level ridge tries to hold over central NM. As such, convection
will likely struggle to initially organize with sporadic severe
gusts and small hail being the main threats. Somewhat greater
effective shear should occur from the TX Trans-Pecos to the Raton
Mesa during the early evening, where isolated marginally severe
storms may occur.
...South FL...
Morning convection along the southeast FL coast has yielded outflow
that has pushed inland over the Everglades. Later afternoon
convection will probably be focused along this boundary into
southwest FL. While a 50-kt speed max at 500 mb was sampled in the
12Z Miami sounding, guidance is consistent with weakening mid-level
winds through the afternoon. It still should remain sufficient for a
transient cell or two with mid-level rotation, and supportive of a
brief threat for severe wind/hail.
Read more2 years 1 month ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
The previous forecast remains valid with only minor adjustments for
the latest forecast guidance. The Elevated area was expanded
westward across lower MI to better cover areas of RH less than 30%
and breezy afternoon winds to 15-20 mph. Across the Northeastern
CONUS, weaker winds are expected D2/Wed, but another day of
abnormally warm temperatures and lower afternoon RH may support
elevated fire-weather potential given the lack of recent rainfall.
The Elevated area was expanded into portions of DelMarVa to better
overlap with receptive fuels. Otherwise, see the previous discussion
for additional information.
..Lyons.. 06/06/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023/
...Synopsis...
A positively tilted upper trough will meander over the Northeast
while an upper trough across the Southwest diminishes through the
day tomorrow/Wednesday. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may
occur across southern Arizona into far southwest New Mexico.
However, the diminishing of the upper trough suggests that the
surface winds should be weak compared to Day 1, with Elevated
highlights withheld this outlook. Elevated highlights have been
introduced from Lower Michigan into New Jersey again as dry
northwesterly surface flow beneath the upper trough should persist.
Since appreciable rainfall is not expected with the potentially dry
thunderstorms on Day 1, fuels should remain largely receptive to
fire spread.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read more2 years 1 month ago
Seeds were not germinating in the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. Corn and other row crops were struggling to get started. Hay growth was slow also, and grass was not recovering after cows grazed it.
WV Metro News (Charleston, W.V.), June 6, 2023
2 years 1 month ago
Martin County commissioners enacted a burn ban on June 5, while a burn ban went into effect for Vermilion County on June 1. The Wabash Valley was very dry for lack of rain.
WTWO TV (Terre Haute, Ind.), June 6, 2023
2 years 1 month ago
Lawns were going dormant in the Milwaukee area. A landscaping service called off all of their maintenance contracts, so they were not cutting any grass since growth had slowed.
CBS58 (Milwaukee, Wis.), June 5, 2023
2 years 1 month ago
The fire chiefs of Margaretta, Oxford and Groton townships in Erie County have posted an open burning ban until conditions improve.
FOX 8 News (Cleveland, Ohio), June 5, 2023
2 years 1 month ago
Crops and livestock in McHenry County were affected by the dry conditions. Pasture grass was not growing, and water sources were beginning to dry up. Farms could be in critical condition by June 10 if heavy rain does not fall, per a farmer.
MyStateline.com (Rockford, Ill.), June 5, 2023
