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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... The most likely corridor for large hail and isolated damaging winds will be across a portion of southeast Texas into early evening. ...South central/southeast TX through this evening... Convection is ongoing from just east of San Antonio to north/northeast of College Station. The somewhat stronger vertical shear and potential for more organized/supercell storms with large hail will remain from the San Antonio cluster southeastward, in association with a remnant MCV. Farther northeast, weaker vertical shear suggests more pulse-type storms into southeast TX, where isolated wind damage and large hail may occur for the next few hours. ...ND area this afternoon through tonight... Convection is forming this afternoon along a wind shift/front across west central ND. Flow is weak over this area near the midlevel ridge, but moderate-strong buoyancy (MLCAPE near or above 2000 J/kg) and midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km will support the threat for occasional strong-severe gusts and isolated large hail with multicell clusters that will spread slowly east/southeastward through tonight. ...South GA and vicinity the remainder of the afternoon... Storm coverage is expected to remain rather isolated, given weak forcing for ascent and relatively dry midlevel air. However, a few storms remain possible along a weak front from southern SC across south GA and far north FL. Moderate buoyancy and rather weak vertical shear will primarily support multicell storms with a marginal wind threat. Slightly stronger vertical shear is present near the front across southern SC, where isolated large hail may also occur. ..Thompson.. 06/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023/ ...Southeast TX... An MCV over central TX will track southeast off the Upper TX Gulf Coast this evening. Nearly full insolation will occur ahead of the MCV coincident with upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points which persist north of an MCS that tracked across Deep South TX earlier this morning. This should yield a pocket of moderately large buoyancy with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg at peak heating. Consensus of CAM guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms should develop ahead of the MCV, with the 12Z WRF-NSSL indicative of at least scattered coverage which would typically be expected with an MCV. Guidance generally indicates slight mid-level warming in forecast soundings which may explain the tendency for more isolated coverage in most CAMs. A belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterlies from 30-40 kt should be relegated to south-central TX and the Middle/Lower TX Gulf Coast. A relatively confined overlap of favorable CAPE/shear space should occur in a portion of southeast TX. With minimal 0-3 km SRH, updraft rotation should be limited to the mid-levels. Main threat will be large hail along with isolated damaging winds until convection moves offshore this evening. ...South GA/SC and north FL... A slowly southward-sagging surface cold front will serve as a focus for at least isolated thunderstorms later this afternoon across parts of the Southeast. West-southwesterly low-level flow will persist ahead of the front similar to yesterday, but mid-level westerlies will be stronger today owing to a jet arcing across the southern Appalachians and the NC/SC border area. This should compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates and may yield small to marginally severe hail over the Lower Savannah Valley. Otherwise, with nearly full insolation, steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for a primary threat of strong to marginally severe microbursts. ...Lower Mid-Atlantic Coast... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts should persist through the mid-afternoon until lower-topped, frontal-forced thunderstorms move offshore. A pocket of steeper 850-600 mb lapse rates in conjunction with an elongated hodograph in the upper portion of the buoyancy profile will support small to marginally severe hail production. This may enhance downdraft potential over the Delmarva peninsula where boundary-layer heating is relatively greater and yield locally strong surface gusts despite weak low-level flow. For additional information, please see MCD 952. ...Northern Great Plains... An upper ridge persists across the central Great Plains northwestward into eastern MT. With 60-64 F boundary-layer dew points, an arc of moderately large buoyancy with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop from parts of eastern MT to the eastern Dakotas. Deep-layer shear will be rather weak, especially within the axis of the mid-level ridge, suggesting that slow-moving, pulse storms will dominate. 15-25 kt effective bulk shear may develop across parts of central to eastern ND where light low-level southeasterlies persist beneath modest mid to upper-level west-northwesterlies. In this regime, sporadic occurrences of isolated severe wind gusts and large hail should peak in the late afternoon to early evening, before waning after sunset. Read more

Most of Kentucky has not received good rainfall in more than two weeks. If rain were to fall soon, corn yield losses could be minimal. Wheat was being dried down in the field amid the dry conditions, which can lower input costs. The dry weather was good for cutting hay, but now farmers fear that drought will hurt grass-hay production. Pastures on shallow soils were turning brown. Morning Ag Clips (Greenwich, N.Y.), June 8, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z No Changes; see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/08/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough on the East Coast will begin to eject into the Atlantic as a mid-level impulse overspreads the Desert Southwest tomorrow/Friday. Dry air will continue to meander around the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and points eastward to the Carolina Piedmont, but with weak surface wind fields. The lack of stronger surface winds suggests that fire-weather spread potential should remain more localized. As the western upper-level impulse overspreads the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing will encourage dry and breezy conditions across portions of southern New Mexico into Far West Texas. 15 mph sustained westerly surface flow is forecast to overlap with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The Michigan Department of Natural Resources is not issuing any burn permits and has banned burning debris in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula due to the red flag warning. East Lansing and Battle Creek issued burn bans after the fire near Grayling last weekend. Other cities with burn bans include Saginaw, Mason, Dewitt and Bay City. Bridge Michigan (Ypsilanti, Mich.), June 8, 2023

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARK-LA-MISS... AMENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR EVOLUTION OF EARLY CONVECTION ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and severe/damaging winds should occur Saturday across parts of the southern Plains into the Ark-La-Miss. ...Updated discussion... A storm cluster and associated MCV are expected to be ongoing in the vicinity of central OK Saturday morning. The convection will likely persist through the day while spreading east-southeastward toward the ArkLaTex and the Ark-La-Miss regions, with an accompanying threat for damaging winds. Outflow with the MCS will likely spread southward into TX, and potentially provide a focus for additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening. Storms along the outflow, especially if it can stall by mid-late afternoon, will have the potential to be supercells capable of producing isolated very large hail. The potential for additional diurnal development in northwest OK and KS, in the wake of the morning convection, is highly uncertain. Given background shortwave ridging, plus subsidence in the wake of the MCV, the potential for severe storms appears limited at best. --Previous discussion below issued at 0730z-- ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... Associated with modest low-level warm advection, mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period Saturday morning across parts of OK towards the Ozarks. With steep mid-level lapse rates present and ample MUCAPE available, this convection may pose an isolated threat for severe hail Saturday morning. This activity may produce an outflow boundary, which could provide a focus for renewed thunderstorm development across parts of OK Saturday afternoon. A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to continue moving eastward across the southern Plains through the period. A surface dryline should mix eastward across TX by late Saturday afternoon. This boundary should also provide a focus for severe thunderstorms. Convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain through the day due to the influence of morning thunderstorms, and weak large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough. Regardless, ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass east of the dryline should foster moderate to strong MLCAPE by late afternoon. Any convection that can initiate along the dryline will likely become severe. Somewhat elongated/straight hodographs at mid/upper levels and steep mid-level lapse rates should support an isolated threat for very large hail with any discrete thunderstorms that initially develop. The potential for one or more convective clusters/MCSs is less clear, but still possible. Some guidance suggests that robust thunderstorms will develop on the southern flank of the morning convection, and subsequently spread east-southeastward across the ArkLaTex vicinity and eventually lower MS Valley. A destabilizing airmass ahead of this possible MCS would support some threat for damaging winds. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to account for this potential. Otherwise, discrete thunderstorms may grow upscale into an MCS Saturday evening as a low-level jet modestly strengthens. This convection may also pose a threat for severe/damaging winds as it moves eastward. ..Thompson.. 06/08/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO SOUTHWEST KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe outflow gusts will be possible late Friday afternoon/evening from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. ...Great Plains Friday afternoon into Friday night... A midlevel trough will persist over the Northeast, with an associated threat for diurnal convection with the midlevel cold pool. Farther west, weak ridging aloft will persist over the High Plains, with a weak trough over the Great Basin. A weak southern stream will remain across NM, and an embedded speed maximum will eject northeastward by Friday evening. Lingering low-level moisture and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate buoyancy across much of the Plains tomorrow afternoon. A somewhat better focus for thunderstorm development will be in the immediate lee of the higher terrain across southeast CO tomorrow afternoon/evening, downstream from the weak ejecting trough. The storm environment will support a mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells initially, given MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and relatively straight hodographs with effective bulk shear near 30 kt. Storms should grow upscale during the evening through outflow interactions, and a cluster is expected to move southeastward toward southwest KS/OK Panhandle early Friday night. The strongest storms in the cluster could produce a few severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph, along with isolated large hail. The storms will spread southeastward overnight into the main body of OK, though they should weaken during the early morning hours. Otherwise, isolated strong-severe storms may occur farther south along the dryline into parts of west TX, though storm coverage is a bit in question. Farther north, vertical shear will generally remain weak. However, there is the potential for an MCV to emerge across eastern SD early in the day, which will then move southward through the afternoon. Isolated strong-severe gusts and large hail may occur with the strongest storms with the MCV. ...FL tomorrow afternoon... A stalled front and local sea breeze circulations will help focus widely scattered to scattered thunderstorm development Friday afternoon across north FL and along the Atlantic coast in the westerly flow regime aloft. Moderate buoyancy and slightly enhanced vertical shear will favor a mix of multicell clusters and marginal supercells, with an attendant threat for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts and large hail. ..Thompson.. 06/08/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 081710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

A 30-day burn ban took effect in York County on June 5 as the area remained dry. Stream and groundwater levels were at record lows. York Daily Record (Pa.), June 5, 2023

Drought kept strawberries grown on a farm in Minonk from getting bigger than the size of a dime, stated the grower, who will not even bother picking the berries this year. A beekeeper who brings honey to sell at the Morton Farmers Market worries that the dry conditions will mean less honey. WEEK (East Peoria, Ill.), June 6, 2023

The Village of Ceresco announced via Facebook that it would be enforcing mandatory water restrictions starting June 1. A local aquifer was at 65% of capacity and the Platte River was flowing at its lowest level since 1956, per a press release from the director of Lincoln Transportation and Utilities. Voluntary water conservation was encouraged in the neighboring communities of Waverly and Lincoln. Wahoo Newspaper (Neb.), June 7, 2023

Corn leaves in Knox County were starting to roll from drought stress. Some research suggests that some yield loss could occur when leaves are rolling for about four consecutive days or more. Soybeans were stressed from the lack of rain also. WTHI TV 10 (Terre Haute, Ind.), June 7, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Jun 7 22:10:02 UTC 2023.

MD 0948 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0948 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023 Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072150Z - 072315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Occasional instances of severe hail and wind are possible with the stronger storms through the remainder of the afternoon into early evening. The severe threat is expected to remain isolated enough such that a WW issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicell clusters and supercells have developed over the past hour across the TX Trans Pecos region. A mid-level shortwave trough and associated 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates continue to overspread upper 50s/low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in increasing buoyancy (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and deep-layer ascent to support the continued intensification of storms. Modest mid-level flow is also overspreading southwestern Texas, resulting in lengthy hodographs and accompanying 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. Large hail may accompany the stronger storms, with severe gusts also possible (given the well-mixed boundary layer and 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates). However, the overall severe threat should remain relatively isolated and a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ... LAT...LON 30250461 31060520 31520556 31900493 32030393 32000250 31530176 30970141 30410157 30080230 29910382 30250461 Read more

Grass was growing more slowly in Peoria so lawn care companies were mowing less frequently. WEEK (East Peoria, Ill.), June 7, 2023

Drought has caused the level of Lake Afton to drop so low that a boat ramp was closed. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), June 7, 2023

Hay cuttings in Van Buren County in north central Arkansas were down a quarter to a third as dry weather took a toll. Hay growers were concerned about a second cutting or having to feed the first cutting of hay for lack of pasture growth. Hills were drying up quickly in the Jackson County area. Many water holes were dry, and non-diverse forage areas were struggling. Stuttgart Daily Leader (Ark.), June 6, 2023

Grass was growing more slowly in the St. Louis area, so lawn care companies were finding that lawns did not need to be mowed, which has cut into income. However, some people were watering their lawn and flowers more frequently to keep them looking nice amid the dry weather. KMOV (St. Louis, Mo.), June 6, 2023

A burn ban was issued for Sandy Township by the fire chief, due to severe drought conditions. GantDaily (Clearfield, Pa.) June 7, 2023