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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN MONTANA...AND EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of Montana and eastern Colorado during the afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level ridge situated over the south-central High Plains northward through the northern Great Plains. A mid-level trough is over the East and a mid-level low and associated trough are over the eastern Pacific to the west of the Pacific Northwest. ...Portions of the central and northern Rockies/High Plains... Broad 40+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow will overspread portions of the central into the northern Rockies as an impulse embedded in the West Coast mid-level trough grazes the region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast across Montana with locally greater thunderstorm coverage forecast over western into north-central MT this afternoon and evening, and separately over portions of eastern Montana. Richer moisture is evident in morning surface analysis across eastern MT where lower 60s F surface dewpoints are present with mid 50s farther west near the I-15 corridor. Consequently, greater buoyancy is expected later this afternoon over eastern MT with 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE possible with 750-1250 J/kg farther west. Given the deep boundary layer and corresponding steep lapse rates in both areas, severe gusts are possible with the more intense cells and clusters, especially if a linear cluster can evolve near the Rocky Mtn Front and push northeastward into the High Plains. Elsewhere, isolated instances of hail/wind may accompany the stronger thunderstorms from the eastern Great Basin northward into ID/WY. ...Eastern Colorado... Moist upslope flow during peak surface heating will result in thunderstorm initiation off of the higher terrain. Surface dewpoints in the low 60s F beneath 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will support over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile will contribute to 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear and modestly elongated hodographs. Some of the stronger multicells and transient supercells may yield a risk for large hail and severe gusts beginning mid afternoon through the early evening. ...North Carolina into the Northeast... At least scattered thunderstorms will develop amid weak vertical wind shear this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Pulse cellular and occasional multicells are the expected storm mode. Rich low-level moisture preceding the front will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, which may support a few strong, potentially damaging gusts with some of the stronger storms. ...North Florida... A couple of strong thunderstorms may develop along the trailing portion of a cold front by afternoon. Similar to the Northeast, rich low-level moisture will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE, fostering wet downburst/strong wind gust potential with pulse single cells and multicells. ...Sabine River Valley... Ongoing clusters of weak thunderstorms moving southward on the backside of the Eastern U.S. mid-level trough will likely continue southward through the Sabine River Valley today. Although the 12 UTC Lake Charles raob is characterized as only weakly unstable, additional heating will result in moderate destabilization by midday. A localized wind-damage risk may accompany the stronger outflow surges before this activity moves into the northwest Gulf. ..Smith/Mosier.. 08/19/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191135
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii
continues to show signs of becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly northward
during the next few days, before accelerating west-northwestward
into the Central Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build over the Great Plains from Thursday to Saturday. During this time period, an axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the moist airmass. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be favorable for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. However, large-scale ascent and the resultant convective coverage is forecast to be limited, which should reduce the overall severe threat coverage. ...Sunday/Day7 and Monday/Day 8... An upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast by the ECMWF to move quickly northeastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, and into the northern Plains on Monday. Ahead of this feature, the medium range models suggest that a broad corridor of strong instability will be in place. Although convective coverage may remain relatively isolated on Sunday and Monday, the strong instability should be favorable for a severe threat. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be possible in the northern Plains on Sunday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. However, there is a wide dispersion of solutions concerning the timing of the upper-level trough. This suggest that uncertainty is substantial from Sunday into Monday. Once the models become in better agreement, a threat area may need to be considered early next week if it appears that convective coverage over the warm sector will be sufficient. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build over the Great Plains from Thursday to Saturday. During this time period, an axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the moist airmass. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be favorable for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. However, large-scale ascent and the resultant convective coverage is forecast to be limited, which should reduce the overall severe threat coverage. ...Sunday/Day7 and Monday/Day 8... An upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast by the ECMWF to move quickly northeastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, and into the northern Plains on Monday. Ahead of this feature, the medium range models suggest that a broad corridor of strong instability will be in place. Although convective coverage may remain relatively isolated on Sunday and Monday, the strong instability should be favorable for a severe threat. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be possible in the northern Plains on Sunday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. However, there is a wide dispersion of solutions concerning the timing of the upper-level trough. This suggest that uncertainty is substantial from Sunday into Monday. Once the models become in better agreement, a threat area may need to be considered early next week if it appears that convective coverage over the warm sector will be sufficient. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build over the Great Plains from Thursday to Saturday. During this time period, an axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the moist airmass. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be favorable for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. However, large-scale ascent and the resultant convective coverage is forecast to be limited, which should reduce the overall severe threat coverage. ...Sunday/Day7 and Monday/Day 8... An upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast by the ECMWF to move quickly northeastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, and into the northern Plains on Monday. Ahead of this feature, the medium range models suggest that a broad corridor of strong instability will be in place. Although convective coverage may remain relatively isolated on Sunday and Monday, the strong instability should be favorable for a severe threat. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be possible in the northern Plains on Sunday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. However, there is a wide dispersion of solutions concerning the timing of the upper-level trough. This suggest that uncertainty is substantial from Sunday into Monday. Once the models become in better agreement, a threat area may need to be considered early next week if it appears that convective coverage over the warm sector will be sufficient. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build over the Great Plains from Thursday to Saturday. During this time period, an axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the moist airmass. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be favorable for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. However, large-scale ascent and the resultant convective coverage is forecast to be limited, which should reduce the overall severe threat coverage. ...Sunday/Day7 and Monday/Day 8... An upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast by the ECMWF to move quickly northeastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, and into the northern Plains on Monday. Ahead of this feature, the medium range models suggest that a broad corridor of strong instability will be in place. Although convective coverage may remain relatively isolated on Sunday and Monday, the strong instability should be favorable for a severe threat. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be possible in the northern Plains on Sunday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. However, there is a wide dispersion of solutions concerning the timing of the upper-level trough. This suggest that uncertainty is substantial from Sunday into Monday. Once the models become in better agreement, a threat area may need to be considered early next week if it appears that convective coverage over the warm sector will be sufficient. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build over the Great Plains from Thursday to Saturday. During this time period, an axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the moist airmass. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be favorable for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. However, large-scale ascent and the resultant convective coverage is forecast to be limited, which should reduce the overall severe threat coverage. ...Sunday/Day7 and Monday/Day 8... An upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast by the ECMWF to move quickly northeastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, and into the northern Plains on Monday. Ahead of this feature, the medium range models suggest that a broad corridor of strong instability will be in place. Although convective coverage may remain relatively isolated on Sunday and Monday, the strong instability should be favorable for a severe threat. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be possible in the northern Plains on Sunday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. However, there is a wide dispersion of solutions concerning the timing of the upper-level trough. This suggest that uncertainty is substantial from Sunday into Monday. Once the models become in better agreement, a threat area may need to be considered early next week if it appears that convective coverage over the warm sector will be sufficient. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... An upper-level ridge is forecast to gradually build over the Great Plains from Thursday to Saturday. During this time period, an axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to remain over the central and northern Plains. As surface temperatures warm each day, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of the moist airmass. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates should be favorable for a severe threat, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. However, large-scale ascent and the resultant convective coverage is forecast to be limited, which should reduce the overall severe threat coverage. ...Sunday/Day7 and Monday/Day 8... An upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast by the ECMWF to move quickly northeastward across the Intermountain West on Sunday, and into the northern Plains on Monday. Ahead of this feature, the medium range models suggest that a broad corridor of strong instability will be in place. Although convective coverage may remain relatively isolated on Sunday and Monday, the strong instability should be favorable for a severe threat. Large hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be possible in the northern Plains on Sunday, and in the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. However, there is a wide dispersion of solutions concerning the timing of the upper-level trough. This suggest that uncertainty is substantial from Sunday into Monday. Once the models become in better agreement, a threat area may need to be considered early next week if it appears that convective coverage over the warm sector will be sufficient. Read more

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 19 2024 109 WTPZ42 KNHC 190844 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM MST Mon Aug 19 2024 A large convective burst formed during the evening and overnight hours with cloud tops as cold as -80C, and the center of Gilma seems to be underneath the eastern edge of the deep convection. This represents a change from 6 h ago, when the center had been a bit more exposed near the eastern edge of a weaker area of central convection. The convective burst has weakened a bit during the last hour or so, and moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be affecting Gilma. A 19/0412 UTC ASCAT-B pass missed the center of the cyclone, but it did measure winds up to 40 kt to the east of the center. It is uncertain whether these vectors are located near or outside of Gilma's radius of maximum winds. Subjective intensity estimates are T-3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T-2.0/30 kt from SAB. The objective intensity estimates from CIMSS range from 35 to 43 kt, about a 5 kt increase from 6 h ago. Based on the ASCAT data and latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this advisory. Moderate-to-strong northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to persist for at least another 36 h, and only slow intensification is forecast in the short term. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and Gilma should be in a more conducive environment for strengthening by Tuesday night or Wednesday. By the end of the forecast period, Gilma is expected to move into a drier and more stable environment, which should begin to induce weakening. The latest intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous official forecast in the short term due to the higher initial intensity, but after that is similar to the previous forecast. The intensity forecast is slightly lower than the model consensus during the first 48 h and is near the consensus thereafter. Gilma is still moving westward along the south side of a mid-level ridge at about 280/11 kt. A similar motion should continue for the next 24 h followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest. By Wednesday, Gilma should slow down a bit and turn more northwestward when a trough off the west coast of the United States erodes the ridge. The model spread is quite large through the forecast period, with the GFS being the largest outlier, showing a track well to the north-northeast of the rest of the guidance. Part of the reason for this is how the GFS model handles the interaction with the aforementioned trough, but part of the reason may also be because the GFS model shows a different interaction with a tropical disturbance currently located several hundred miles to the west of Gilma, mentioned in the latest Tropical Weather Outlook. The official track is quite similar to the previous one and lies just a touch south of the consensus aids beyond 48 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.0N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 15.2N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 15.5N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 16.7N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 17.3N 122.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 17.8N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 18.6N 125.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 19.5N 128.3W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 08:46:17 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 09:29:23 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 831 FOPZ12 KNHC 190841 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 15N 115W 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 5(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 1(16) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 26(49) 5(54) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 200 AM MST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 190841 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 AM MST Mon Aug 19 2024 ...GILMA STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 114.6W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 114.6 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slightly slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Gilma is forecast to remain well away from land throughout the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...GILMA STRENGTHENS... As of 2:00 AM MST Mon Aug 19 the center of Gilma was located near 15.0, -114.6 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 850 WTPZ22 KNHC 190841 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.6W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.6W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 114.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.2N 116.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.5N 118.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.0N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.7N 121.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 122.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.8N 123.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 18.6N 125.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.5N 128.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 114.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible westward into central Montana and southward into the central High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northeastward across the northern Rockies. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from central Nebraska into central South Dakota and northwestward into northeast Montana, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop along and near parts of the moist axis by afternoon. Both the NAM and ECMWF have MLCAPE peaking above 3000 J/kg in parts of the northern Plains, with the ECMWF showing an axis of strong instability by late afternoon. As the airmass destabilizes, isolated convective initiation will be possible near the moist axis. Additional storms will likely develop in the higher terrain of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. This convection is expected to move northeastward into the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening as the shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Forecast soundings over western North Dakota and far eastern Montana have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km in some areas. The instability and shear would support supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The models suggest that the severe threat would persist into the early to mid evening as the shortwave trough moves across the region. Further south in the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the instability axis during the late afternoon. A potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. However, deep-layer shear and large-ascent are forecast to be weaker in the central High Plains, suggesting any threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible westward into central Montana and southward into the central High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northeastward across the northern Rockies. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from central Nebraska into central South Dakota and northwestward into northeast Montana, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop along and near parts of the moist axis by afternoon. Both the NAM and ECMWF have MLCAPE peaking above 3000 J/kg in parts of the northern Plains, with the ECMWF showing an axis of strong instability by late afternoon. As the airmass destabilizes, isolated convective initiation will be possible near the moist axis. Additional storms will likely develop in the higher terrain of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. This convection is expected to move northeastward into the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening as the shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Forecast soundings over western North Dakota and far eastern Montana have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km in some areas. The instability and shear would support supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The models suggest that the severe threat would persist into the early to mid evening as the shortwave trough moves across the region. Further south in the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the instability axis during the late afternoon. A potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. However, deep-layer shear and large-ascent are forecast to be weaker in the central High Plains, suggesting any threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible westward into central Montana and southward into the central High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northeastward across the northern Rockies. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from central Nebraska into central South Dakota and northwestward into northeast Montana, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop along and near parts of the moist axis by afternoon. Both the NAM and ECMWF have MLCAPE peaking above 3000 J/kg in parts of the northern Plains, with the ECMWF showing an axis of strong instability by late afternoon. As the airmass destabilizes, isolated convective initiation will be possible near the moist axis. Additional storms will likely develop in the higher terrain of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. This convection is expected to move northeastward into the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening as the shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Forecast soundings over western North Dakota and far eastern Montana have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km in some areas. The instability and shear would support supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The models suggest that the severe threat would persist into the early to mid evening as the shortwave trough moves across the region. Further south in the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the instability axis during the late afternoon. A potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. However, deep-layer shear and large-ascent are forecast to be weaker in the central High Plains, suggesting any threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible westward into central Montana and southward into the central High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northeastward across the northern Rockies. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from central Nebraska into central South Dakota and northwestward into northeast Montana, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop along and near parts of the moist axis by afternoon. Both the NAM and ECMWF have MLCAPE peaking above 3000 J/kg in parts of the northern Plains, with the ECMWF showing an axis of strong instability by late afternoon. As the airmass destabilizes, isolated convective initiation will be possible near the moist axis. Additional storms will likely develop in the higher terrain of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. This convection is expected to move northeastward into the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening as the shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Forecast soundings over western North Dakota and far eastern Montana have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km in some areas. The instability and shear would support supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The models suggest that the severe threat would persist into the early to mid evening as the shortwave trough moves across the region. Further south in the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the instability axis during the late afternoon. A potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. However, deep-layer shear and large-ascent are forecast to be weaker in the central High Plains, suggesting any threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible westward into central Montana and southward into the central High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northeastward across the northern Rockies. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from central Nebraska into central South Dakota and northwestward into northeast Montana, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop along and near parts of the moist axis by afternoon. Both the NAM and ECMWF have MLCAPE peaking above 3000 J/kg in parts of the northern Plains, with the ECMWF showing an axis of strong instability by late afternoon. As the airmass destabilizes, isolated convective initiation will be possible near the moist axis. Additional storms will likely develop in the higher terrain of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. This convection is expected to move northeastward into the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening as the shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Forecast soundings over western North Dakota and far eastern Montana have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km in some areas. The instability and shear would support supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The models suggest that the severe threat would persist into the early to mid evening as the shortwave trough moves across the region. Further south in the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the instability axis during the late afternoon. A potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. However, deep-layer shear and large-ascent are forecast to be weaker in the central High Plains, suggesting any threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible westward into central Montana and southward into the central High Plains. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern Plains on Wednesday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves northeastward across the northern Rockies. An axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast from central Nebraska into central South Dakota and northwestward into northeast Montana, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F. Moderate to strong instability appears likely to develop along and near parts of the moist axis by afternoon. Both the NAM and ECMWF have MLCAPE peaking above 3000 J/kg in parts of the northern Plains, with the ECMWF showing an axis of strong instability by late afternoon. As the airmass destabilizes, isolated convective initiation will be possible near the moist axis. Additional storms will likely develop in the higher terrain of northern Wyoming and southern Montana. This convection is expected to move northeastward into the northern High Plains during the late afternoon and early evening as the shortwave trough approaches from the southwest. Forecast soundings over western North Dakota and far eastern Montana have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with steep low to mid-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km in some areas. The instability and shear would support supercells with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts. The models suggest that the severe threat would persist into the early to mid evening as the shortwave trough moves across the region. Further south in the central High Plains, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the instability axis during the late afternoon. A potential for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts would be possible. However, deep-layer shear and large-ascent are forecast to be weaker in the central High Plains, suggesting any threat should remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 08/19/2024 Read more