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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period. At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better. ...Northern Plains... One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS. Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size, and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically, given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much associated convectively processed air will affect inflow trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA, southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States... This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI. The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the main concern. Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN. ...AZ... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells, atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period. At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better. ...Northern Plains... One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS. Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size, and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically, given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much associated convectively processed air will affect inflow trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA, southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States... This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI. The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the main concern. Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN. ...AZ... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells, atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period. At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better. ...Northern Plains... One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS. Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size, and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically, given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much associated convectively processed air will affect inflow trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA, southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States... This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI. The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the main concern. Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN. ...AZ... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells, atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period. At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better. ...Northern Plains... One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS. Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size, and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically, given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much associated convectively processed air will affect inflow trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA, southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States... This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI. The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the main concern. Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN. ...AZ... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells, atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period. At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better. ...Northern Plains... One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS. Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size, and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically, given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much associated convectively processed air will affect inflow trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA, southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States... This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI. The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the main concern. Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN. ...AZ... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells, atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period. At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better. ...Northern Plains... One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS. Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size, and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically, given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much associated convectively processed air will affect inflow trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA, southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States... This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI. The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the main concern. Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN. ...AZ... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells, atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period. At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better. ...Northern Plains... One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS. Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size, and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically, given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much associated convectively processed air will affect inflow trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA, southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States... This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI. The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the main concern. Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN. ...AZ... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells, atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period. Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period. At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better. ...Northern Plains... One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts. This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts. However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS. Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size, and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically, given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much associated convectively processed air will affect inflow trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA, southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain. ...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States... This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI. The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the main concern. Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN. ...AZ... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers. Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells, atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb. Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024 Read more

WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S 9V9 TO 45 NNE ONL TO 20 ESE MHE TO 20 SSW BKX TO 35 SSE RWF. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-141240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC033-063-101-105-117-133-141240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-141240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S 9V9 TO 45 NNE ONL TO 20 ESE MHE TO 20 SSW BKX TO 35 SSE RWF. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-141240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC033-063-101-105-117-133-141240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COTTONWOOD JACKSON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE ROCK NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-141240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 531 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 140700Z - 141300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 531 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Iowa Southwestern Minnesota Northeastern Nebraska East-central and southeastern South Dakota * Effective this Sunday morning from 200 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 90 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized, bowing thunderstorm complex, with a history of numerous, measured, significant severe gusts (65+ kt) in western and central SD, should continue to pose a threat for severe wind as it moves through much of the watch area through dawn. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west of Mitchell SD to 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 527...WW 528...WW 529...WW 530... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 80 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29050. ...Edwards Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141113
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development of this
system, if any, should be slow to occur while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and western
portion of the basin during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141112
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 1611 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531... FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...FAR NORTHWEST IOWA...FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1611 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota...Far Northeast Nebraska...Far Northwest Iowa...Far Southwest Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531... Valid 140858Z - 141100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 531 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for severe gusts may persist in parts of eastern South Dakota and far northeastern Nebraska over the next couple of hours. The threat could also impact far northwest Iowa and far southwest Minnesota, but is expected to become more isolated with time. DISCUSSION...According to mosaic radar imagery, a decaying MCS is ongoing across central and eastern South Dakota. Severe gusts are still occurring, in association with the stronger cells embedded in the MCS. As the stronger cells within the complex move east-southeastward into a pocket of moderate to strong instability, severe gusts will be possible over the next one to two hours. However, the MCS is expected to continue weakening, and any potential for severe gusts is expected to become increasingly isolated. ..Broyles.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF... LAT...LON 44979631 45069759 44849862 44009902 43139905 42449873 42209759 42279623 42879560 43729539 44609561 44979631 Read more

WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LNR TO 20 NW VOK TO 35 SW CWA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC081-141040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LNR TO 20 NW VOK TO 35 SW CWA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC081-141040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LNR TO 20 NW VOK TO 35 SW CWA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC081-141040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0530 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW LNR TO 20 NW VOK TO 35 SW CWA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 530 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC081-141040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MONROE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-141040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC023-033-063-073-081-083-101-105-117-127-133-173-141040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD ROCK YELLOW MEDICINE NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-141040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0531 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 531 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...MPX...LBF...OAX...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 531 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-059-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-141040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC023-033-063-073-081-083-101-105-117-127-133-173-141040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHIPPEWA COTTONWOOD JACKSON LAC QUI PARLE LINCOLN LYON MURRAY NOBLES PIPESTONE REDWOOD ROCK YELLOW MEDICINE NEC015-027-043-051-089-107-141040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more