Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...20z Update... Confidence has increased that a corridor of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of eastern ID into southwestern MT D2/Tuesday. Stronger flow aloft ahead of a weak upper trough embedded within southwesterly flow will support deeper mixing and wind gusts to 15-20 mph as it passes overhead through the afternoon. With RH below 20% and dry area fuels, fire-weather concerns are expected to be elevated. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The West Coast mid-level trough will slowly progress eastward tomorrow (Tuesday), with strong southwesterly 500 mb flow expected to overspread the Great Basin. Similar to Day 1 (today), afternoon boundary-layer mixing will promote dry and windy conditions along the Oregon/California/Nevada border, as well as southwestern into central Nevada, where Elevated highlights have been added. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low
pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii has changed little
during the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast
to meander slowly northward or northeastward during the next few
days, before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central
Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system has not become any better organized today. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Nepaul

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF MONTANA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in parts of central/eastern Montana with more isolated coverage into parts of the central High Plains on Tuesday. Severe winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will remain in the Northwest and make slow progress eastward. A modest surface trough will develop in the northern and central High Plains. The upper-level ridge will amplify slightly in the central U.S. Surface high pressure will be centered in the Great Lakes with offshore flow expected across much of the eastern U.S. Some moisture return is possible along the western flank of the surface high in the High Plains region. ...Montana... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the terrain of southwestern and south-central Montana during the afternoon. This activity is expected to progress to the northeast into the evening. Initial storms will likely be discrete, but rather large temperature-dewpoint spreads should promote outflow dominant storms that will tend to grow upscale quickly. Severe winds are expected to be the primary hazard, but steep mid-level lapse rates and 40-50 kts of effective shear would support some risk of large hail with the strongest discrete storms. Buoyancy will be minimal within the higher terrain and perhaps reach 1000-1500 J/kg in central Montana. Greater buoyancy will exist into eastern Montana, but MLCIN will also be greater. While a narrow area of greater severe wind potential could develop, the spatial extent appears to low/uncertain for an increase in severe probabilities. ...Black Hills into western Nebraska... Though uncertainty in initiation is high due to weak forcing, an isolated storm or two could develop within the surface trough during the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft will be sufficient for 35-40 kts of effective shear. 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE is possible by the afternoon. Isolated wind damage and large hail could occur should a storm develop and mature. ..Wendt.. 08/19/2024 Read more