Aggregator

WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 534 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW MCW TO 45 ENE ALO TO 25 NNW DBQ TO 20 SE OSH. ..LYONS..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...ARX...LOT...ILX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 534 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-011-015-031-037-043-063-073-085-089-091-093-097-099-103- 105-111-123-141-155-161-175-177-195-197-201-150140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BUREAU CARROLL COOK DE KALB DUPAGE GRUNDY HENRY JO DAVIESS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY MARSHALL OGLE PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND STARK STEPHENSON WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO INC089-150140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N BHK TO 80 NNW ISN. ..LYONS..07/15/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC005-007-009-013-019-023-025-033-049-053-055-057-061-065-069- 071-075-079-083-095-101-103-105-150140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into far western West Virginia and Pennsylvania and far northeast Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142229Z - 150030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Convection within a decaying MCS across OH has shown signs of re-intensification over the past hour, and a damaging wind threat may persist for another hour or two. However, this trend is not expected to persist given an unfavorable downstream environment. DISCUSSION...Lightning trends and GOES IR cloud-top temperatures have shown a slight uptick in convective intensity within a decaying MCS draped from central OH to far northeast KY. Recent surface observations continue to sample sub-severe winds within this line, but the MCS appears to be only slightly outflow dominant per recent radar/velocity imagery. This recent uptick suggests that the MCS may briefly become more balanced and produce isolated stronger winds capable of damage. However, this trend is not expected to last long given limited buoyancy and poor deep-layer shear downstream into PA, WV, and far eastern KY. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 39978190 40618190 41198206 41468232 41678224 41988120 42228020 42118002 41707996 41298007 40768018 40248042 39768072 38968132 38548157 38268181 38018221 37908252 37868287 37868327 37988353 38168368 38418363 38448332 38518301 38598280 38768254 39048229 39208221 39978190 Read more

MD 1619 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OHIO INTO FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND PENNSYLVANIA AND FAR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1619 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Ohio into far western West Virginia and Pennsylvania and far northeast Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142229Z - 150030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Convection within a decaying MCS across OH has shown signs of re-intensification over the past hour, and a damaging wind threat may persist for another hour or two. However, this trend is not expected to persist given an unfavorable downstream environment. DISCUSSION...Lightning trends and GOES IR cloud-top temperatures have shown a slight uptick in convective intensity within a decaying MCS draped from central OH to far northeast KY. Recent surface observations continue to sample sub-severe winds within this line, but the MCS appears to be only slightly outflow dominant per recent radar/velocity imagery. This recent uptick suggests that the MCS may briefly become more balanced and produce isolated stronger winds capable of damage. However, this trend is not expected to last long given limited buoyancy and poor deep-layer shear downstream into PA, WV, and far eastern KY. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 39978190 40618190 41198206 41468232 41678224 41988120 42228020 42118002 41707996 41298007 40768018 40248042 39768072 38968132 38548157 38268181 38018221 37908252 37868287 37868327 37988353 38168368 38418363 38448332 38518301 38598280 38768254 39048229 39208221 39978190 Read more

MD 1618 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF AZ...SOUTHEAST CA AND FAR SOUTHERN NV
Mesoscale Discussion 1618 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...parts of AZ...southeast CA and far southern NV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142206Z - 142330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic wind gusts from 50-70 mph and small to marginally severe hail from 0.75-1.25 inches in diameter will be possible with slow-moving storms through early evening. DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing near the higher terrain of southern CA and southeast AZ, as well as along the Mogollon Rim of AZ. A relatively moist air mass characterized by predominately mid 50s to mid 60s surface dew points in lower elevations is supporting a broad plume of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Convection over AZ is occurring with a modest east-southeasterly mid-level flow regime, suggesting that much of the convection will likely parallel the Rim over the next few hours before potentially spreading into the portion of the CO River along the AZ/NV border. Convection across southeast CA is occurring within a weakly sheared, more southerly mid-level flow regime, suggesting that storms will remain quasi-stationary and struggle to appreciably intensify beyond a downburst threat. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX... LAT...LON 34020999 32400986 31611008 31311101 31651119 33531153 34631338 34241493 33371594 33101639 33891703 35301608 35921521 36281415 35731329 34020999 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142302
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central and Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions could become more conducive for some development in a
day or two while it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph across the central and western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142301
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

MD 1617 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MT AND NORTHWEST TO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1617 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Areas affected...northeast MT and northwest to far north-central ND Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 142138Z - 142315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Initial high-based thunderstorms over northeast Montana should develop into supercells with threats for large hail and isolated severe gusts during the early evening. A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely by 22Z. DISCUSSION...Increasingly agitated cumulus is noted near a 1008 mb surface cyclone in the Glasgow vicinity. This corridor is likely to initiate into several thunderstorms during the next couple hours as large-scale ascent increases downstream of a shortwave trough digging over southern AB into SK. Warm-moist sector temperature/dew point spreads of 40-45 F suggest the environment is uncapped and deeply mixed. The 19Z BIS sounding sampled ample speed shear above 700 mb within a west-northwest mid/upper flow regime which will favor high-based supercell development. Initial storms should produce a mix of large hail and severe gusts. Downstream intensification and potentially more widespread coverage is anticipated deeper into the evening as cells impinge on the more air mass, characterized by mid 60s surface dew points roughly along and east of the Lake Sakakawea region of the MO River. An isolated large hail threat may also exist with warm-advection storms along the surface warm front farther east near the international border of northwest to north-central ND. ..Grams/Gleason.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 48440628 48890416 49180178 49120065 48650043 47880123 47170321 46840447 46720541 46820583 47830633 48440628 Read more

WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0534 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0534 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0534 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 534 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN WI LM 142255Z - 150600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 534 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 555 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue increasing in coverage and intensity this evening. Isolated large hail generally 1-1.75 inches in diameter may occur with the initially more cellular activity. With time, a bowing cluster of thunderstorms should pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to around 60-70 mph. A landspout tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south southwest of Mason City IA to 55 miles south of Racine WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 533... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-021-055-071-083-085-091-105-109-142340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS DAWSON MCCONE PHILLIPS RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX NDC005-007-009-013-019-023-025-033-049-053-055-057-061-065-069- 071-075-079-083-095-101-103-105-142340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS Read more

WW 0533 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 533 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...GGW...FGF...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 533 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-021-055-071-083-085-091-105-109-142340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DANIELS DAWSON MCCONE PHILLIPS RICHLAND ROOSEVELT SHERIDAN VALLEY WIBAUX NDC005-007-009-013-019-023-025-033-049-053-055-057-061-065-069- 071-075-079-083-095-101-103-105-142340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENSON BILLINGS BOTTINEAU BURKE CAVALIER DIVIDE DUNN GOLDEN VALLEY MCHENRY MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY RENVILLE ROLETTE SHERIDAN TOWNER WARD WELLS WILLIAMS Read more

WW 533 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 142200Z - 150500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 533 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Montana Western and Northern North Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening and move slowly east-southeastward. The most intense thunderstorms should be capable of producing large to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. The potential for severe/damaging winds is more uncertain. But, if activity can grow into a bowing cluster later this evening, then peak wind speeds may reach 65-75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles southwest of Glasgow MT to 95 miles east of Minot ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0508 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z The pattern in the extended D3/Tue-D6/Fri will feature a trough moving across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains before deepening into the Great Lakes and eastern US. Late in the period, a deepening trough will potentially move across the Pacific Northwest, with an attendant cold front. Across the western US, high-amplitude ridging will return with drying conditions and very warm temperatures. Isolated dry thunderstorm chances will continue across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest on D3/Tue. As a shortwave impulse moves northward D4/Wed-D5/Thur, southerly flow will bring an increase in moisture across portions of Washington. Isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the Cascades, where moisture will be more shallow with primarily high-based convection. On D5/Thur, a band of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Cascades, bringing increased surface winds that will overlap relative humidity around 10-15 percent. A 40% delineation was added to cover this threat. Given the potential for dry lightning on D4/Wed, fire spread with new lightning ignitions will be possible. Monsoonal moisture will gradually shift southward out of the Great Basin beyond D4/Wed, residing across southern Arizona where thunderstorm chances will continue. Isolated dry thunderstorms may be possible across portions of northern Arizona/southern Utah, along the northern periphery of the better monsoonal moisture through the end of the period. Some portions of this region will receive wetting rainfall in the short term D1/Sun-D2/Mon leading to uncertainty in the status of fuels. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more