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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed. Latest surface observations are in line with morning model solutions, which depict dry conditions but slightly weaker winds compared to yesterday (which yielded predominantly elevated fire weather conditions). See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue eastward into the Northern Plains today. Upper-level winds across the Northwest into the northern Great Basin will remain modestly strong into the afternoon. Similarly, a modestly strong surface pressure gradient will remain across these areas before weakening overnight. ...OR/CA/NV into Snake River Plain... Though surface winds will be slightly weaker than on Sunday, 15-20 mph winds can generally be expected given the lingering presence of the synoptic features described earlier. Stronger winds do appear probable in the Snake River Plain due to terrain effects and favorable orientation of the mid-level winds. RH of 15-20% will be common by the afternoon. Elevated fire weather is expected with the greatest potential for locally critical conditions in the Snake River Plain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. Storms will be capable of large hail, and a cluster potentially capable of destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level trough will continue to transition eastward and modestly amplify over the Canadian Prairies, with southern-peripheral height falls and strengthening westerlies from North Dakota/northern Minnesota toward the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. In this same corridor, a weak MCV may be evolving this morning over eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota, while these scattered thunderstorms will probably also influence and somewhat hinder the effective north-northeastward of a warm front later today across Minnesota and Wisconsin. A very moist (low 70s F dewpoints) and unstable air mass will otherwise develop northeastward regionally in tandem with the warm front as surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Siouxland and southern Minnesota through evening. Upwards of 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected within the warm sector, with very warm mid-level temperatures associated with the elevated mixed-layer plume likely limiting warm sector development away from (south of) the immediate triple point and cold front/warm front vicinity. Multiple convective scenarios are possible late this afternoon through tonight. For one, as the air mass recovers from the early day storms, widely scattered surface-based thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon near the eastward-advancing cold front within the relatively narrow warm sector from far eastern North Dakota into northern/western Minnesota. Any storms that do develop will likely organize into supercells given strong wind profiles and the large buoyancy. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially with storms in proximity to the warm front. Additionally, on the southern fringe of the early scattered early day convection (and related cloud cover) from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, storms may form near an effective triple point/differential heating reinforced warm front. Such initial development could occur across south-central/southeast Minnesota, with robust instability/seasonally strong shear potentially supportive of an initial mode of intense supercells, with subsequent upscale growth in an MCS with heightened damaging wind potential. Additional mostly elevated storms could form tonight from eastern Minnesota into northern/central Wisconsin, on the immediate cool side of the surface baroclinic gradient as a nocturnally increasingly low-level jet heightens isentropic ascent. These storms may also pose a large hail and damaging wind risk through the overnight. An upgrade to Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) may be warranted pending morning observational/guidance trends, potentially including a corridor across south-central/southern Minnesota and west/southwest Wisconsin, where a semi-focused swath of potentially significant damaging winds appears plausible. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central Nebraska and northern Kansas. At least isolated high-based storms are expected to develop within a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer environment. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep low/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe wind gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. Other potentially severe storms will also be possible over the Black Hills/northeast Wyoming with weak low-level upslope flow in the post-frontal environment. Modest low-level moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated, although severe hail/strong winds will be possible. ...Carolinas and far southeast Virginia... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multicell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. Storms will be capable of large hail, and a cluster potentially capable of destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A mid-level trough will continue to transition eastward and modestly amplify over the Canadian Prairies, with southern-peripheral height falls and strengthening westerlies from North Dakota/northern Minnesota toward the Upper Great Lakes through tonight. In this same corridor, a weak MCV may be evolving this morning over eastern North Dakota/northwest Minnesota, while these scattered thunderstorms will probably also influence and somewhat hinder the effective north-northeastward of a warm front later today across Minnesota and Wisconsin. A very moist (low 70s F dewpoints) and unstable air mass will otherwise develop northeastward regionally in tandem with the warm front as surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Siouxland and southern Minnesota through evening. Upwards of 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected within the warm sector, with very warm mid-level temperatures associated with the elevated mixed-layer plume likely limiting warm sector development away from (south of) the immediate triple point and cold front/warm front vicinity. Multiple convective scenarios are possible late this afternoon through tonight. For one, as the air mass recovers from the early day storms, widely scattered surface-based thunderstorms may develop by late afternoon near the eastward-advancing cold front within the relatively narrow warm sector from far eastern North Dakota into northern/western Minnesota. Any storms that do develop will likely organize into supercells given strong wind profiles and the large buoyancy. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible with any supercells, especially with storms in proximity to the warm front. Additionally, on the southern fringe of the early scattered early day convection (and related cloud cover) from eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota, storms may form near an effective triple point/differential heating reinforced warm front. Such initial development could occur across south-central/southeast Minnesota, with robust instability/seasonally strong shear potentially supportive of an initial mode of intense supercells, with subsequent upscale growth in an MCS with heightened damaging wind potential. Additional mostly elevated storms could form tonight from eastern Minnesota into northern/central Wisconsin, on the immediate cool side of the surface baroclinic gradient as a nocturnally increasingly low-level jet heightens isentropic ascent. These storms may also pose a large hail and damaging wind risk through the overnight. An upgrade to Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) may be warranted pending morning observational/guidance trends, potentially including a corridor across south-central/southern Minnesota and west/southwest Wisconsin, where a semi-focused swath of potentially significant damaging winds appears plausible. ...Central Plains and Black Hills... Very warm surface temperatures are expected ahead of the weakening cold front across central Nebraska and northern Kansas. At least isolated high-based storms are expected to develop within a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer environment. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep low/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will support isolated severe wind gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. Other potentially severe storms will also be possible over the Black Hills/northeast Wyoming with weak low-level upslope flow in the post-frontal environment. Modest low-level moisture and only glancing upper-level support suggest storm coverage will remain isolated, although severe hail/strong winds will be possible. ...Carolinas and far southeast Virginia... At the base of departing east coast trough, subtle height falls atop a warm and unstable air mass will support scattered afternoon thunderstorms across much of the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia along a weak surface cold front. Enhanced flow aloft and surface convergence near the front should be sufficient for transient storm organization into multicell clusters or a weak supercell. Steepening low-level lapse rates and the high PWAT air mass will favor heavily water and hail-loaded downdrafts capable of isolated damaging gusts. Storms should begin to move offshore by early evening ending the severe risk. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 06/24/2024 Read more