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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is topping the northern High Plains ridge over eastern MT early this evening. A secondary, less amplified disturbance is ejecting across the Bitter Roots of ID into extreme western MT. Each of these features appears partly responsible for scattered robust convection immediately downstream. Latest diagnostic data suggests an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extends across the central High Plains from eastern CO-NE Panhandle-eastern MT. This axis of buoyancy will be the primary corridor for strong/severe thunderstorms this evening. Both GGW and UNR exhibited modest instability, with ample 0-6km shear, for slow-moving supercells; though, both had CINH and capping at the top of the boundary layer around 1km AGL. Primary concentration of longer-lived clusters will likely shift into the western Dakotas as this is where the LLJ should strengthen after sunset. Hail/wind remain the primary risks. ..Darrow.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is topping the northern High Plains ridge over eastern MT early this evening. A secondary, less amplified disturbance is ejecting across the Bitter Roots of ID into extreme western MT. Each of these features appears partly responsible for scattered robust convection immediately downstream. Latest diagnostic data suggests an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extends across the central High Plains from eastern CO-NE Panhandle-eastern MT. This axis of buoyancy will be the primary corridor for strong/severe thunderstorms this evening. Both GGW and UNR exhibited modest instability, with ample 0-6km shear, for slow-moving supercells; though, both had CINH and capping at the top of the boundary layer around 1km AGL. Primary concentration of longer-lived clusters will likely shift into the western Dakotas as this is where the LLJ should strengthen after sunset. Hail/wind remain the primary risks. ..Darrow.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is topping the northern High Plains ridge over eastern MT early this evening. A secondary, less amplified disturbance is ejecting across the Bitter Roots of ID into extreme western MT. Each of these features appears partly responsible for scattered robust convection immediately downstream. Latest diagnostic data suggests an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extends across the central High Plains from eastern CO-NE Panhandle-eastern MT. This axis of buoyancy will be the primary corridor for strong/severe thunderstorms this evening. Both GGW and UNR exhibited modest instability, with ample 0-6km shear, for slow-moving supercells; though, both had CINH and capping at the top of the boundary layer around 1km AGL. Primary concentration of longer-lived clusters will likely shift into the western Dakotas as this is where the LLJ should strengthen after sunset. Hail/wind remain the primary risks. ..Darrow.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern and central High Plains, and over western Montana. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards. ...01z Update... Notable mid-level short-wave trough is topping the northern High Plains ridge over eastern MT early this evening. A secondary, less amplified disturbance is ejecting across the Bitter Roots of ID into extreme western MT. Each of these features appears partly responsible for scattered robust convection immediately downstream. Latest diagnostic data suggests an axis of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE extends across the central High Plains from eastern CO-NE Panhandle-eastern MT. This axis of buoyancy will be the primary corridor for strong/severe thunderstorms this evening. Both GGW and UNR exhibited modest instability, with ample 0-6km shear, for slow-moving supercells; though, both had CINH and capping at the top of the boundary layer around 1km AGL. Primary concentration of longer-lived clusters will likely shift into the western Dakotas as this is where the LLJ should strengthen after sunset. Hail/wind remain the primary risks. ..Darrow.. 08/20/2024 Read more

WW 0639 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 639 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CYS TO 35 ENE SNY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 ..HALBERT..08/20/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 639 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-089-101-121-123-125- 200140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PUEBLO WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC033-200140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 0640 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 640 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...MSO...TFX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 640 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC059-200040- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEMHI MTC001-007-013-015-023-027-029-031-035-039-041-043-045-047-049- 051-057-059-063-073-077-081-093-099-101-200040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD BROADWATER CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FERGUS FLATHEAD GALLATIN GLACIER GRANITE HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY MADISON MEAGHER MISSOULA PONDERA POWELL RAVALLI SILVER BOW TETON TOOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 19 23:48:05 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 192337
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an
area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly
northward or northeastward during the next couple of days or so,
before accelerating west-northwestward into the Central Pacific
basin by the latter portion of the week. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions could become conducive for some slow development of this
system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Bucci

WW 0639 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 639 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..08/19/24 ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 639 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC017-025-039-041-061-063-073-075-087-089-101-121-123-125- 200040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PUEBLO WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-200040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-200040- WY Read more

WW 639 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 191945Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 639 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM MDT Mon Aug 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Nebraska Panhandle Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to build eastward off the foothills of this afternoon, spreading across the watch area. The strongest storms will pose a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles southeast of Pueblo CO to 20 miles northwest of Chadron NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

Residents and businesses in Harrisonburg were asked to voluntarily conserve water after the city council declared a drought warning on Aug. 13. WHSV (Harrisonburg, Va.), Aug 19, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Omega blocking over the central CONUS is forecast to remain through the majority of the extended forecast period. On the western flank of the block, mid-level troughing will persist over parts of the West Coast into next weekend. Enhanced flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs will support periodic dry and breezy conditions over parts of the Northwest and Great Basin. Toward the end of the week, a strong upper low will move south along the coast supporting an increase in thunderstorm potential, along with continued dry and breezy conditions over the Great Basin. Elevated to potentially critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Northwest and Great Basin... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to remain in place over the western US through much of the week. With stronger flow aloft overspreading a warm and dry air mass across parts of the southern Northwest and Great Basin, dry and windy conditions are possible through midweek. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of NV, UT and into southern OR/ID through D5/Friday. Confidence in stronger sustained winds overlapping critical RH and dry fuels is somewhat limited currently, though the approach of the upper low/trough is expected to support potentially higher gusts over much of the Southwest D4/Thursday and into the weekend. Increasing monsoon moisture is also expected over parts of the Western US beginning D4/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low. Some dry lightning will be possible with isolated to widely scattered storms through D6/Saturday. Confidence is highest that dry thunder probabilities could be needed over parts of northern and central OR through the end of the work week. However, the exact storm coverage and overlap with the best fuels remains uncertain. ..Lyons.. 08/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more