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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0451 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 24 16:43:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Upper Midwest this afternoon into tonight. A corridor of potentially widespread destructive wind gusts could develop over parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... A weakening MCS continues to track eastward across central MN, associated with a shortwave trough over southern Canada. Extreme instability will develop along the southern fringe of this MCS and accompanying cloud shield, with hot/humid conditions leading to MLCAPE values over 4500 J/kg by late afternoon across southwest MN. Very warm temperatures aloft will likely suppress convective development in this volatile air mass, but strengthening southwesterly low-level winds by early evening will enhance warm advection and likely lead to thunderstorms over central MN. Initial storms will be supercellular, with forecast soundings showing ample low level and deep-layer shear to support a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As the evening progresses, most morning CAM solutions indicate that the cluster of supercells will grow upscale into a fast moving bowing MCS. However, there is considerable diversity regarding the track of the most intense storms. Given the very warm temperatures aloft, it seems likely the storms will track southeastward along the thermal gradient - across central/southern WI and into northern IL. The potential exists for a corridor of widespread and occasionally significant (exceeding 65 kt) wind damage, so have upgraded to ENH. The low-level air mass will become increasingly less unstable as the storms move across Lake Michigan and into northern IN by early Tue morning, suggesting a weakening trend. ...Central High Plains... Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the central Rockies and Black Hills today and spread eastward into parts of SD/NE/KS. Hot surface temperatures and inverted-v profiles will support a risk of gusty/damaging winds with this activity for a few hours early this evening. ...Eastern NC/SC... A surface front is sagging southeastward across NC today, with a very moist and moderately unstable air mass in place ahead of the front. Thunderstorms are expected to form in this environment, with sufficient westerly flow aloft to help organize the storms and promote a risk of damaging wind gusts. Given the amount of heating that is occurring in eastern NC, and morning guidance showing substantial coverage of storms, have added a SLGT risk for parts of this area. ..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/24/2024 Read more