Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains. As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact with the instability plume. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains. As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact with the instability plume. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains. As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact with the instability plume. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains. As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact with the instability plume. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains. As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact with the instability plume. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains. As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact with the instability plume. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, some with severe hail and damaging gusts are expected to develop on Wednesday over parts of far eastern Montana and western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper high will be centered over NM with a ridge extending north across the Plains. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt upper trough from MT to the Great Basin will move eastward, resulting in gradually lowering heights across the northern Rockies and Plains. To the east, a deep upper low will move very slowly from NY into northern New England. Generally cool air aloft will extend south across much of the East, where winds aloft will remain weak. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the upper Great Lakes, with generally dry and stable conditions over much of the MS and OH Valleys and extending eastward to the Mid Atlantic. A plume of 60s F dewpoints will remain west of the surface high and ahead of a developing trough from eastern MT southward across the High Plains. As various embedded disturbances round the upper ridge and move across MT, WY, and the Dakotas, scattered strong and a few severe storms are anticipated as cooling aloft and increasing flow interact with the instability plume. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Scattered storms will develop over the higher terrain of southwest MT by 20Z, and spread northeastward into central MT. Gusty winds will be likely with this activity, but marginal hail will also be possible as deep-layer shear will be strong and the storms will encounter increasing moisture with eastward extent. By late afternoon and into the evening, some upscale growth is possible along outflow surges, with indications of a cluster or MCS developing over far eastern MT after 02Z. Damaging wind and hail would be likely with this activity, as it interacts with low 60s F dewpoints and southeast low-level winds/inflow. Farther south, additional widely spaced storm clusters are expected from eastern WY into CO. While these regions will be closer to the upper ridge and thus have less shear, ample lapse rates and instability will still favor severe gusts and hail locally, with storms generally dwindling by 06Z from central SD into western KS. ..Jewell.. 08/20/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with two disturbances over the western portion of the East Pacific
basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight, and gradual
development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical depression
will likely form during the next day or so while it moves generally
westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is then expected to strengthen
as it moves across the central Pacific basin late this week and move
near the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental
conditions should support slow development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend
while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters, well
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Reinhart

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the currently valid outlook. The Elevated area over portion of ID and MT was trimmed slightly for thunderstorms ongoing early this morning. Rainfall has tempered fuels somewhat, though abundant lightning has also occurred. With at least a few hours of dry and breezy conditions (RH <20% and winds of 15-20 mph) could support elevated fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere, the prior forecast remains unchanged, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, associated with a shortwave trough approaching the northern California Coast, will be responsible for bringing dry/breezy conditions to the Great Basin and portions of Idaho/Montana. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath a modest 40-50kt mid-level jet will bring dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, far southeastern Oregon/southwestern Utah and portions of southwest Montana/northeast Idaho, where fuels guidance suggest ERC annual percentiles range between the 80th and 98th. Elevated fire-weather conditions are anticipated, with relative humidity values of 5-10% and winds around 15-20 MPH. Locally critical conditions are possible across portions of southern and central Nevada, where gusts may reach 25 MPH. However, this largely overlaps with an area where fuels are less receptive to wildfire spread, precluding critical highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Some dry thunderstorms are possible across central Utah, where deeply mixed boundary-layer profiles, surface relative humidity values of 15-20%, storm motions of around 30 knots, and PWAT values between 0.5-0.9 will combine to support thunderstorm development while limiting wetting rainfall. However, current fuels guidance shows ERC annual percentiles below the 50th percentile, precluding any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/20/2024 Read more