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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE INTO ADJACENT GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...Synopsis... To the south of a broad vortex centered over the higher latitudes of northeastern Canada, models indicate some further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing east of the upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast during this period. Upstream, a broad low embedded within larger-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to progress inland across the Pacific Northwest. As it does, initially prominent ridging appears likely to become suppressed from the northern into southern Rockies by late tonight. A number of smaller-scale perturbations, including some convectively generated or enhanced, are embedded within the weaker flow around the Western ridging, and on the southern periphery of the stronger westerlies across the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. As these progress through the evolving flow, they are expected to provide the primary focus for developing clusters of thunderstorms today into tonight. The predictability of these features is still relatively low at this forecast time frame, and it remains unclear how outflow associated with ongoing convection across the central Great Plains into lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys may impact convective development later today through tonight. Although a plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West is in the process of becoming suppressed to the east of the Rockies, by late this afternoon it still appears that boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating will still be sufficient to contribute to moderate to large CAPE across parts of the central and southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf States, and across the Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley into northern Mid Atlantic... Ahead of digging mid-level troughing, one or more convectively generated perturbations may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development across the mid into upper Ohio Valley by this afternoon, beneath modest west-southwesterly mid-level flow (on the order of 30+ kt). Although lower-level wind fields may be initially more modest, various model output suggests that convection could become fairly widespread and contribute to strengthening conglomerate surface cold pools accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts. Potential instability across and east of the Allegheny Mountains remains a little more unclear, but it is possible that vigorous convection may be maintained along the leading edge of the outflows as they spread eastward into northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by early this evening. While the magnitude of the convective surface gusts may be mostly marginally severe in nature, one or more swaths of potentially damaging gusts are possible, and severe wind probabilities may still need to be increased once sub-synoptic developments become more unclear. ...Ozark Plateau into and east of lower Mississippi Valley... Potential convective evolution remains uncertain. However, there is a substantive signal within at least some model guidance that a notable convective perturbation will be in the process of progressing into the Ozark Plateau at the outset of the period. This may still be accompanied by continuing vigorous convective development and a southeastward propagating cold pool, which may persist or contribute to renewed strong convective development across Arkansas into Mississippi and adjacent portions of the Gulf states by this evening. If this occurs, it probably will be accompanied by one or more swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. ...Front Range into adjacent Great Plains... Beneath modest westerly to northwesterly mid-level flow, destabilization may become supportive of scattered strong to severe storm development off the higher terrain. Models suggestive that destabilization will become sufficient across the adjacent plains to support considerable upscale growth and potential for strong to severe gusts along strengthening cold pools late this afternoon into this evening. ..Kerr/Barnes.. 06/26/2024 Read more

MD 1420 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...northeastern Kansas...southwestern Iowa...and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 260413Z - 260515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms over portions of Nebraska and southern Iowa should expand southeastward and increase in coverage over the next few hours. New WW -- extending into northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri, will be needed shortly. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows clusters of strong/severe storms from north-central Nebraska to southwestern Iowa, moving steadily southeastward. With a moderately unstable airmass (3000 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE per RAP-based objective analysis) ahead of the convection into Kansas/Missouri, and a moderate southwesterly low-level jet observed, continued southeasterly advance of the convection is expected. With this area beneath the leading/expanding edge of stronger mid-level northwesterly flow, storms should organize/grow upscale with time, propagating southward with attendant risks for large hail and damaging winds. The anticipated/expanding risk will warrant new WW issuance shortly. ..Goss/Gleason.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38559430 38839636 39669721 41009719 41499708 40849273 39109251 38729296 38559430 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0461 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0461 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0461 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0461 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260317Z - 260415Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk to increase across the Oklahoma City metro area in the next hour as a cluster of storms moves southward. Isolated/local nature of the risk should preclude any need for WW issuance. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong/severe storms continues moving southward across central Oklahoma, through a moist/very unstable airmass -- aided by a gradually increasing south-southwesterly low-level jet. The storms continue to exhibit radar signatures consistent with strong winds and large hail, including 65 kt inbounds at 1500 feet, and hail near golf ball size. While the hail core seems to be diminishing gradually over the past 15 minutes, severe/damaging gusts are expected across portions of the metro area. ..Goss/Gleason.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN... LAT...LON 35189761 35809765 35699668 35079699 34919732 35189761 Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0460 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0460 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0460 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0460 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE DSM TO 20 WNW OTM TO 30 N IRK. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...ILX...LOT...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-029-039-049-053-071-077-085-117-121-125-129- 133-135-137-145-153-155-159-165-173-175-181-185-260440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR FREMONT GUTHRIE HARRISON LUCAS MADISON MARION MILLS MONONA MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE RINGGOLD SHELBY TAYLOR UNION WARREN WAYNE NEC003-011-021-023-025-027-037-039-053-055-077-107-109-119-121- 125-131-139-141-143-153-155-159-167-173-175-177-179-260440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BOONE BURT BUTLER CASS CEDAR Read more