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MD 1430 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Texas into west-central Louisiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465... Valid 262031Z - 262200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 continues. SUMMARY...A convective line moving south across East TX into West-Central LA will continue to move south and weaken as it exits the WW area. While additional convective development is ongoing ahead of the line, additional downstream WW issuance is not expected due an anticipated lack of convective organization. DISCUSSION...A bowing line of thunderstorms is exiting the watch area into West-Central LA and East TX. Radar trends indicate the overall coverage and intensity of convection is weakening, and the severe threat both ahead and behind the line will decrease this afternoon... though isolated severe wind gusts may be possible in the short term. Further south, daytime airmass thunderstorms have developed in West-Central LA, but remain unorganized with the absence of supportive deep-layer vertical shear. Given current convective trends, downstream weather watch issuance is not expected. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31609445 31649405 31669323 31689279 31529227 31219217 30979224 30789250 30649272 30549309 30569355 30549389 30569427 30679465 30769485 31089515 31089515 31259523 31469526 31609445 Read more

MD 1429 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...much of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southeast New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262002Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail may occur this afternoon, with a greater potential for more widespread thunderstorms this evening. DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to destabilize south of an east-west oriented boundary from the PA/NY border eastward into southern New England. Visible satellite shows increase CU fields, with a few thunderstorms now extending from south-central PA into northern VA. As the main upper wave continues east, storms over northern PA along the front may organize further with damaging winds over much of northern PA possible. Isolated activity over southern PA has outflow associated with it currently, and this may support further development across the remainder of southeast PA, and eventually into NJ and southern NY. As such, the area is being monitored for further intensification or increase in coverage of the existing activity, and another watch may be considered over the next few hours south and/or east of WW 464. ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 41417357 40707373 40187391 39797430 39357547 39107644 39237695 39457753 39777792 40337813 40657816 40837792 41337580 41717426 41677375 41417357 Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0468 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0468 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0468 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 468 SEVERE TSTM ID 262145Z - 270300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 468 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Central Idaho * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop this afternoon and persist into the evening across southern and central Idaho. A few of the stronger storms may evolve into weak supercells. The more intense thunderstorms will be potentially capable of severe gusts (60-70 mph) and large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of Boise ID to 60 miles south of Monida MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 464...WW 466...WW 467... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Smith Read more

Heat and the lack of rain has hurt dryland crops in Orangeburg County. The yield potential of the dryland corn has been severely affected, according to an Orangeburg County Clemson extension agent. He thought that some dryland fields would have a significantly reduced or even near zero yield. Irrigated corn looks about average or above average. Some of the corn was already dried up and will not benefit from forecast rain. Dryland crops such as cotton, peanuts, soybeans, sorghum, sesame and hay have not made good stands. The Times and Democrat (Orangeburg, S.C.), June 25, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions should remain limited through the extended period. Regional fire concerns remain possible over the weekend across parts of the Great Basin. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show an upper-level shortwave trough amplifying over the Pacific Northwest during the D4/Sat to D5/Sun time frame. As this occurs, surface pressure falls across NV should support dry, breezy southerly winds across southern NV into western UT. The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low for D4/Sat, but elevated conditions may develop by late afternoon. Fire weather potential may be greatest on D5/Sun afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front across the Great Basin. Deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to show a reasonable signal for critical fire weather conditions from eastern NV into northwest UT and southwest WY. However, it is unclear whether or not fuels will sufficiently dry by this weekend in the wake of widespread wetting rainfall over the next 12 hours. This concern precludes higher risk probabilities at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more