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WW 0641 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MQM TO 20 N DLN TO 25 WNW BZN TO 30 NW GTF AND 50 ENE WEY TO 50 ENE GTF. ..HALBERT..08/21/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-009-015-027-033-037-041-045-065-069-071-087-095-097- 103-105-107-111-210140- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CARBON CHOUTEAU FERGUS GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JUDITH BASIN MUSSELSHELL PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Aug 20 23:46:06 UTC 2024.

WW 0641 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE MQM TO 20 N DLN TO 25 WNW BZN TO 30 NW GTF. ..HALBERT..08/20/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-007-009-013-015-027-031-033-037-041-045-057-059-065- 067-069-071-087-095-097-103-105-107-111-210040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE BROADWATER CARBON CASCADE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GALLATIN GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JUDITH BASIN MADISON MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 641 SEVERE TSTM MT 202040Z - 210400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 641 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Tue Aug 20 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and Central Montana * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop over the mountains of southwest Montana this afternoon and spread quickly eastward across the watch area through the evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threat with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Dillon MT to 125 miles east northeast of Lewistown MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202327
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with two disturbances over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight,
and gradual development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical
depression or tropical storm will likely form during the next day or
so while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is
then expected to strengthen as it moves across the central Pacific
basin late this week and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two,
and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters,
well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Blake

MD 1965 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1965 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Areas affected...southwestern South Dakota to the Nebraska Panhandle vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 202215Z - 202345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated storms from the Black Hills area south into the Nebraska Panhandle are evolving, one or two of which may briefly be capable of producing hail and/or strong wind gusts. Coverage of the risk should remain well below that needed to warrant WW consideration. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows very isolated storm development over the Black Hills vicinity (in a northeasterly/upslope low-level flow regime), and southward into the Nebraska Panhandle region in the vicinity of a surface low. The storms are initiating in an environment that has heated/destabilized modestly, on the western fringe the axis of greater low-level moisture/mixed-layer CAPE (1500 to 2500 J/kg north and east of the Black Hills, and southward into western Nebraska). The wind field across the area is backing with height, indicative of cold advection north/northwest of the surface low. Still, the magnitude of the flow is sufficient to support some updraft organization -- as observed within the Custer County, SD storm over the past hour. Though overall severe risk should remain low overall, the potential for one or two storms to approach or slightly exceed severe levels does exist, for the next couple of hours. ..Goss/Guyer.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41570293 41890316 42680301 43700348 44010347 44240317 43700196 42880108 41570118 41530189 41570293 Read more

WW 0641 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..08/20/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-027-031-033-037-041-043-045-049- 057-059-065-067-069-071-087-095-097-103-105-107-111-202340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD BIG HORN BLAINE BROADWATER CARBON CASCADE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GALLATIN GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK MADISON MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week. ...Southern Plains... Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical fire-weather potential. ...Dry thunderstorm potential... Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting rains increase beneath the upper low. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week. ...Southern Plains... Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical fire-weather potential. ...Dry thunderstorm potential... Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting rains increase beneath the upper low. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week. ...Southern Plains... Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical fire-weather potential. ...Dry thunderstorm potential... Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting rains increase beneath the upper low. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week. ...Southern Plains... Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical fire-weather potential. ...Dry thunderstorm potential... Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting rains increase beneath the upper low. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week. ...Southern Plains... Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical fire-weather potential. ...Dry thunderstorm potential... Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting rains increase beneath the upper low. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week. ...Southern Plains... Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical fire-weather potential. ...Dry thunderstorm potential... Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting rains increase beneath the upper low. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week. ...Southern Plains... Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical fire-weather potential. ...Dry thunderstorm potential... Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting rains increase beneath the upper low. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z An upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move south and linger over parts of the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Northwest and Great Basin... As the aforementioned upper low approaches from the northwest D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, stronger flow on the eastern side will gradually overspread a warm and fairly dry air mass across parts of OR/ID and into the Great Basin. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected with the potential for elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. Winds are expected to be strongest D4/Friday over parts of southern NV and western UT with gusts to 35 mph possible. Area fuels should continue to dry and be at least partially receptive to fire spread heading into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns should continue through the weekend as stronger flow aloft begins to extend into the northern/central Rockies. Confidence in more widespread elevated fire-weather potential is highest for D5/Saturday, though some risk may continue across parts of WY/CO/MT into early next week. ...Southern Plains... Periodic dry return flow is possible over parts of the southern Plains late this week into the weekend. Gusty southerly flow ahead of the upper low to the west may support occasional 10-15 mph winds and RH below 20% over parts of west TX and eastern NM. Confidence remains low in the coverage and duration of elevated to critical fire-weather potential. ...Dry thunderstorm potential... Mid-level moisture should increase ahead of the low over much of the Western US beginning D3/Thursday. Medium-range guidance shows a plume of 0.6 to 0.8 inch PWATs moving into the Pacific Northwest ahead of the upper low into OR and WA. Some dry lightning will be possible Thursday, though the best storm coverage may remain away from the driest fuels. Confidence in dry thunderstorm and lightning potential over dry fuels is higher in southeast OR and western ID beginning D4/Friday as the upper low continues south and moisture depth increases. At least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue through the weekend, though the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels as temperatures cool and chances for wetting rains increase beneath the upper low. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

On August 20, outdoor burning was banned in unincorporated Tarrant County without the approval of the Tarrant County Fire Marshal’s Office for the next 90 days. Culturemap Fort Worth (Texas), Aug 20, 2024

A pumpkin grower in Circleville stated that the summer has been dry, so he did not have a water reserve for his crops. He was working hard to keep his pumpkins watered. Watering was also an added expense for producing pumpkins for fall, which is their most profitable time of year. Spectrum News 1 (Columbus, Ohio), Aug 20, 2024

MD 1964 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1964 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Areas affected...southwest into central MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 202011Z - 202215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms could produce strong/damaging gusts and isolated hail into early evening across parts of southeast into central Montana. Area is being monitored for possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms have developed this afternoon over the higher terrain of southwest Montana. This area has quickly warmed into the 80s F as earlier cloud cover has shifted northeast. Additional convection is expected to develop further east near the Beartooth/Absarokas over the next couple of hours. Collectively this convection will spread northeast into this evening. Modest instability, mainly supported by steep midlevel lapse rates/cool temps aloft, and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support organized/robust updrafts. Forecast hodographs along with regional VWP data also indicate shear favorable for supercells. Given high-based storms and steepening low-level lapse rates, strong/damaging gusts are possible with this activity as it becomes better organized with time and northeastward extent into the high Plains. A few instances of hail up to 1.25 inch diameter is also possible. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon. ..Leitman/Hart.. 08/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO... LAT...LON 45531289 46451251 46751218 47121145 47421034 47500949 47450855 47020732 46200683 45770694 45210755 45210863 44971202 45041265 45231284 45531289 Read more

WW 0641 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 641 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..08/20/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 641 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC001-003-005-007-009-013-015-027-031-033-037-041-043-045-049- 057-059-065-067-069-071-087-095-097-103-105-107-111-202240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD BIG HORN BLAINE BROADWATER CARBON CASCADE CHOUTEAU FERGUS GALLATIN GARFIELD GOLDEN VALLEY HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LEWIS AND CLARK MADISON MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL PARK PETROLEUM PHILLIPS ROSEBUD STILLWATER SWEET GRASS TREASURE VALLEY WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 21:01:59 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Aug 2024 21:23:27 GMT