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WW 0641 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0641 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

The Travis County Fire Marshal's Office issued a burn ban for unincorporated areas of Travis County for the next 14 days. The wildfire risk will be high with intense heat and low humidity. Outdoor barbecuing and grilling were discouraged. KVUE News Online (Austin, Texas), Aug 20, 2024

No watches are valid as of Tue Aug 20 20:14:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm winds and large hail are possible today, mainly over parts of Montana. ...Montana and the High Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made to the Marginal risk/wind probabilities across southwest MT to account for developing convection within a deeply-mixed environment. See the previous discussion for additional details regarding the severe risk across Montana, and MCD #1963 for recent convective trends regarding CO/NM. ...South Carolina Coast... A targeted Marginal risk was considered for the immediate SC coast where convection is developing along a sea breeze boundary. The thermodynamic and kinematic environment along the coast appears conducive for a few strong, to perhaps severe, storms. However, longevity of initial cells appears limited based on regional radar imagery, and recent high-res guidance suggests any threat will remain very localized to mainly coastal counties. Given these concerns, risk highlights were withheld. ..Moore.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...MT... Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive shortwave trough and associated mid/upper level speed max rotating across NV/ID. Lift associated with this system will overspread the mountains of ID/southwest MT this afternoon, where increasing mid-level moisture and strong heating will lead to scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move off the higher terrain, they will encounter a deeply mixed and marginally unstable air mass. Steep low-level lapse rates and favorably strong westerly mid-level winds will favor damaging wind gusts or perhaps hail with the more intense clusters of storms. Activity will spread into eastern MT during the evening and slowly weaken as diurnal cooling ensues. ...CO/NM... A persistent upper ridge remains over NM, with several weak perturbations rotating around the top of the ridge across UT/CO. Widely scattered high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop across central/southern CO later this afternoon and spread slowly eastward into the Plains. A few of the storms may produce gusty winds or hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...20z update... A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible over parts of northern and central WY D2/Wed. Strong flow aloft will overlap with deep mixing supporting gusty winds of 15-20 mph and RH minimums of 10-15%. Fuels are at least partially receptive to spread with pockets of ERC values above the 80th percentile. Thus, an Elevated area was introduced over the best overlap of dry fuels and elevated fire-weather potential. Farther south across NV, the Great Basin, and eastern Snake River Valley, a corridor of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions remains apparent. Southwest surface winds of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% will allow for elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions to develop. However, this area currently overlaps with fuels that are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles from recent rainfall. With dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and at least some potential for elevated fire-weather concerns persists despite uncertainties with fuel availability. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 08/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving through the northern Great Basin/Northwest U.S., will bring sustained dry/windy conditions to portions of Nevada, Utah, and Idaho on Wednesday. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath broad southwesterly mid-level flow, and a progressive shortwave trough moving from northern Nevada/southern Oregon into Idaho and Montana, will be responsible for elevated fire-weather conditions across the Great Basin on Wednesday. High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests there may be a narrow corridor of critical fire-weather conditions across Nevada, where relative humidity values will drop into the single digits and winds could get as high as 20-25 MPH. This area currently overlaps with fuels that are not expected to be receptive to wildfire spread, with ERC values around the 60th-65th annual percentiles. However, with dry/windy conditions expected the preceding day, some additional curing of fuels can be expected, and critical highlights could be needed in subsequent updates. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will be possible across southwestern Montana, with additional dry thunderstorm development likely across southern Colorado and northern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance suggests that both of these regions are unlikely to be receptive to new ignitions and wildfire spread, with ERC values below the 60th annual percentile for both regions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more