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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes were made to the valid outlook. Elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions are possible from the southern Great Basin into parts of WY. Dry thunderstorms are also possible over parts of the Rockies where fuels have trended drier. At least some risk for isolated dry and breezy conditions are also possible over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon, though the coverage of 15+ mph surface winds and RH below 20% appears limited. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread much of the Great Basin and portions of the Pacific Northwest in advance of a southward-moving shortwave trough approaching the Washington coast. This will result in pockets of elevated fire-weather conditions across Nevada, Idaho, and Wyoming, with an additional risk for isolated dry thunderstorms across eastern and central Wyoming. ...Dry/Windy... Deep boundary-layer mixing beneath 40-45kt mid-level flow will result in elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across portions of Nevada, eastern Idaho, and northern Wyoming. The best overlap of elevated fire-weather conditions with receptive fuels will be across northern Wyoming and central Nevada, where fuels guidance suggest ERCs are above the 90th annual percentile. Across eastern Idaho in the Snake River Plain, meteorological conditions are expected to exceed Elevated criteria, but recent wetting rainfall and current fuels guidance suggests a narrower corridor supporting wildfire spread. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across central and eastern Wyoming, where ERC fuels are in the 90th-98th annual percentile range and thunderstorms are expected to develop in deeply mixed, dry boundary-layer profiles. Storm motion estimates of 30 kts and PWAT values < 0.8 in should limit wetting rainfall except for in the strongest cores, and some overlap with elevated fire-weather conditions could pose a risk for wildfire spread with any new ignitions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over ID/NV tracking northeastward. Lift associated with this system will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and evening. This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the Plains during the evening. Instability in the mountains is quite weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk of gusty winds. Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging winds and large hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ, with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds. Today will be similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over ID/NV tracking northeastward. Lift associated with this system will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and evening. This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the Plains during the evening. Instability in the mountains is quite weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk of gusty winds. Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging winds and large hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ, with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds. Today will be similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over ID/NV tracking northeastward. Lift associated with this system will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and evening. This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the Plains during the evening. Instability in the mountains is quite weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk of gusty winds. Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging winds and large hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ, with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds. Today will be similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over ID/NV tracking northeastward. Lift associated with this system will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and evening. This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the Plains during the evening. Instability in the mountains is quite weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk of gusty winds. Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging winds and large hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ, with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds. Today will be similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over ID/NV tracking northeastward. Lift associated with this system will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and evening. This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the Plains during the evening. Instability in the mountains is quite weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk of gusty winds. Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging winds and large hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ, with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds. Today will be similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over ID/NV tracking northeastward. Lift associated with this system will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and evening. This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the Plains during the evening. Instability in the mountains is quite weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk of gusty winds. Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging winds and large hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ, with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds. Today will be similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over ID/NV tracking northeastward. Lift associated with this system will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and evening. This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the Plains during the evening. Instability in the mountains is quite weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk of gusty winds. Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging winds and large hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ, with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds. Today will be similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail and thunderstorm gusts are most probable today over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Northern High Plains... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over ID/NV tracking northeastward. Lift associated with this system will overspread parts of MT/WY/Dakotas later this afternoon and evening. This will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain of southern MT and WY, building eastward into the Plains during the evening. Instability in the mountains is quite weak with dewpoints only in the 40s, but with steep low/mid level lapse rates and moderately strong westerly flow aloft posing a risk of gusty winds. Storms will eventually move/develop eastward into a more moist/unstable air mass across eastern MT and western SD/ND where more robust/severe storms are expected, capable of damaging winds and large hail. ...CO/NE/KS... Ample mid-level moisture will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains of central CO and southern WY. This area will be on the fringe of the stronger westerly flow aloft, and with pockets of strong daytime heating helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. This will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells. As the activity spreads eastward into the Plains, further intensification is possible with a few cells continuing a risk of gusty winds and hail during the evening. ...Southeast AZ... Afternoon thunderstorms have been occurring daily over southeast AZ, with isolated strong cells capable of gusty winds. Today will be similar as daytime heating dewpoints in the 60s promote storms over the higher terrain that track slowly northwestward during the late afternoon and early evening. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/21/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 14:45:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 15:22:58 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 211443 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 This morning, Gilma's structure on satellite has continued to improve, with infrared satellite depicting a banding type eye appearing intermittently as convection attempts to wrap around the estimated center. In addition, we received a 0933 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass which showed a developing eyewall on both the 89-GHz and 37-GHz channels, though with some vertical tilt. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T4.5/77-kt, which also matches the latest ADT estimate. Thus, Gilma's initial intensity will be raised to 75 kt for this advisory. Gilma appears to be moving just north of due west, but slower than earlier, estimated at 280/6 kt. Over the next few days, a large subtropical ridge poleward of the hurricane should continue to steer it generally westward to west-northwestward. However, this ridge becomes positioned a little farther northwest with time as a subtle weakness north of the storm forms, resulting in a slower-than-typical forward motion for this part of the Eastern Pacific basin. The latest track guidance this cycle is notably slower and more equatorward than the previous cycle, and the NHC track was shifted in that direction, but not quite as far as the reliable track consensus guidance TVCE and HCCA. As mentioned in the previous discussion, if these southward trends continue, further southward adjustments may be necessary. With the improvement of Gilma's inner core structure this morning, the hurricane may be poised to intensify more over the next day or two. This scenario is shown by the recent hurricane-regional model guidance, which shows more intensification than the prior cycle. Given the reduction in vertical wind shear noted in the recent SHIPS guidance and as Gilma remains over 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures for the next 48 h, the NHC intensity forecast now shows intensification into a Category 3 hurricane over this time period. This intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is in good agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid. However there remain some hurricane-regional models that show even more intensification (e.g., HAFS-A). After 48 h, sea-surface temperatures begin to gradually decrease, and slow weakening is expected to begin thereafter, though less than the previous advisory due to the further south track over warmer ocean waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.0N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 16.2N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 16.8N 125.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.9N 127.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 24/0000Z 17.1N 128.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 17.3N 130.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 18.0N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Alaka

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 211442 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 125W 34 52 25(77) 3(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 15N 125W 50 1 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 125W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 2 3( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 22(32) 4(36) X(36) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 25(31) 6(37) 1(38) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 15(40) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 211441 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 ...GILMA INTENSIFYING... ...NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 122.8W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 122.8 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Gilma could become a major hurricane by the end of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Alaka