Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain likely across central to southern WY, but recent ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are near seasonal averages for most locations. Additional rain chances over the next 12-18 hours further limits confidence in fuel status by peak heating Friday. While highlights are withheld for this update, precipitation and fuel trends will be monitored. See the previous discussion below for further details. ..Moore.. 06/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially within the northern Rockies will eject into the northern/central Plains on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move into the upper Midwest and push southward into parts of the southern Plains before stalling. ...Central/Southern Wyoming... Strong winds due to the favorable position of the mid-level jet as well as the strong pressure gradient behind the front will promote 15-25 mph winds across the area. RH could fall to 15-20% with perhaps localized 10-15% values by the afternoon. Fuel information and recent fire activity would suggest southeastern Wyoming and nearby vicinity have the driest fuels. Precipitation that occurred Wednesday afternoon/evening along with potential precipitation on Thursday increases uncertainty in how dry fuels will be on Friday. In southwest/south-central Wyoming, fuels are sparse and present fuels do not appear overly dry based on current data. Furthermore, this area could also see some precipitation on Thursday. As impacts of precipitation on fuels become more clear, elevated highlights could be added for southeastern Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Brunswick Regional Water and Sewer H2GO issued a Stage 4 Water Shortage Alert, prohibiting all irrigation until further notice. All non-essential water use was forbidden, and non-compliance could result in civil penalties. Excessive lawn irrigation has kept the water system at capacity for the past several weeks, threatening the integrity of the community’s wells. WECT-TV Channel 6 (Wilmington, N.C.), June 19, 2024

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. Large hail, damaging wind, and a couple tornadoes will be possible. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley... An upper trough over the northern Rockies will develop east to the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes vicinity. A convectively enhanced vorticity maxima also is forecast to be located over the lower/mid-MO Valley Friday morning. This feature will drift east toward Lake Michigan through evening. At the surface, an area of elongated low pressure will located near the international border in the vicinity of ND and southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba. This feature will shift east into northern MN and eventually the U.P. of MI and Lake Superior. At this occurs, a cold front will shift southeast across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon/evening across parts of the Dakotas into MN. Locally strong gusts and a few instances of hail will be possible with this activity. Further south, a secondary surface low may develop in the vicinity of western/central KS on the nose of very strong heating over the southern Plains. Rich low-level moisture will be in place across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Morning convection will likely be ongoing in a strong low-level theta-e advection regime from northwest MO into IA/southeast MN/WI and northern IL. This activity poses some uncertainty in convective evolution into the afternoon as it may stunt destabilization, especially across parts of MO/IA/IL. If airmass recovery can occur, supercell wind profiles would support an all hazards risk, especially in the vicinity of any modified outflow from morning convection. Given uncertainty, only minor adjustments to the ongoing outlook have been made across the MO-Valley vicinity. Confidence is higher that strong destabilization will occur across parts of KS/NE. Convection will likely develop over southeast WY/northeast CO in a post-frontal upslope flow regime during the late afternoon. As this activity spreads east/southeast into NE/KS, isolated supercells and clusters will pose a risk for severe gusts. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will be present, with a deeply-mixed boundary-layer evident in forecast soundings. Furthermore, dry air around 700 mb will further aid in strong downdraft potential. Isolated gusts to 80 mph will be possible. With any more discrete supercell activity, straight/elongated hodographs and large elevated instability and steep midlevel lapse rates will support isolated significant hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. ..Leitman.. 06/27/2024 Read more