Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts remain possible this evening into tonight over parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A seasonably strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving across parts of southern AB and western MT this evening. In advance of this system, multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern MT into western SD. Moderate to strong buoyancy (with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) and favorable effective shear (generally in excess of 40 kt) will continue to support severe-thunderstorm potential through the evening as the shortwave trough moves eastward. A general weakening trend is expected overnight as storms encounter increasing MLCINH, but some severe threat is expected to spread across a larger portion of eastern MT into western ND later this evening, including some potential for upscale growth and an increasing severe-wind threat. See MCD 1970 for more information. ...Central High Plains... Strong storms are ongoing this evening across the NE Panhandle into extreme southeast WY, with weaker convection across much of CO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection across parts of the central High Plains for much of the evening. Some modest upscale growth is possible with time from western NE into northeast CO and western KS, in conjunction with a nocturnally increasing low-level jet. As a result, a threat for localized severe gusts and hail may spread eastward through the evening, before increasing MLCINH results in a weakening trend overnight. ...Southeast AZ... Storms that developed this afternoon across parts of southeast AZ have occasionally exhibited severe-hail and wind potential. A general weakening trend is expected as initially moderate buoyancy diminishes with time, but a short-term threat for a few stronger storms may persist through early evening. ..Dean.. 08/22/2024 Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0643 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0643 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0643 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0643 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/21/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-137- 220040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 212323
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization
today in association with an area of low pressure located well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. However, only a slight
improvement in organization could result in the formation of a
tropical depression or tropical storm later tonight or early
Thursday while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This
system is expected to strengthen as it moves into the central
Pacific basin on Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late
this weekend or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure centered several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the
next two to three days while the system moves west-northwestward
into the central portion of the East Pacific, well offshore of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Blake

MD 1970 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 642... FOR EASTERN MONTANA...WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND PARTS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1970 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern Montana...western North Dakota...northeastern Wyoming...and parts of western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642... Valid 212316Z - 220115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 642 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk -- ongoing in/near WW 642 -- is forecast to expand across northeastern Montana over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar/satellite loops show isolated convection -- rather slow to initiate thus far -- increasing across portions of the northeastern Wyoming vicinity. While a couple of strong/severe storms persist east of the Black Hills, the aforementioned convection increasing over northeastern Wyoming should continue to increase, and spread into WW 642 with time. Meanwhile, a minor increase in convection over the past half hour is noted over portions of eastern Montana, in the wake of prior storms which have moved across the border into Saskatchewan. Recent HRRR runs continue to show robust convective development across eastern Montana, as a mid-level short-wave trough now over southern Alberta and western Montana advances slowly east-northeastward. With a favorably unstable airmass in place (mixed-layer CAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range across east-central and northeastern Montana and into western North Dakota), and moderately strong/increasing flow with height that should strengthen with time with the approach of the mid-level system, the environment within and north/northeast of WW 642 suggests severe potential will persist well into this evening. New WW issuance into portions of northeastern Montana and possibly western North Dakota, currently not included within WW 642, will likely be required within the next 1 to 2 hours. ..Goss.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 48970877 48970458 48350405 45170149 43580099 44290392 45570612 47130877 48970877 Read more

WW 0642 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 642 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/21/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 642 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-017-025-065-075-087-103-220040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CUSTER FALLON MUSSELSHELL POWDER RIVER ROSEBUD TREASURE SDC007-019-033-047-055-063-071-081-093-095-102-103-105-121-137- 220040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS TODD ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more