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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 20:41:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2024 21:24:02 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 212039 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Gilma's satellite presentation has improved significantly over the past three hours as a clear eye has appeared in visible imagery, and the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T5.0/90-kt. Using these estimates Gilma's initial intensity is set to 90 kt for this advisory, which represents an increase of 30-kt over the past 24 hours, meeting the criteria of rapid intensification. Gilma is moving more west-northwestward this afternoon, estimated at 285/6 kt. Over the next few days, a large subtropical ridge poleward of the hurricane should continue to steer it generally westward to west-northwestward. The latest track guidance has shifted slightly poleward, reversing the trend of the previous few cycles, possibly due to the more northern short-term motion as the hurricane's inner-core has become established. The latest NHC track was shifted slightly in that direction of the consensus track aids, blending them with the prior track forecast. Given the improvements to the inner core, Gilma is expected to steadily strengthen over the next day. The NHC intensity forecast now shows strengthening to a Category 4 hurricane in 24 h, which is in agreement with the latest HCCA consensus aid and still slightly below some of the hurricane-regional models (e.g. HAFS-A and HAFS-B). After 48 h, sea-surface temperatures begin to gradually decrease, and slow weakening is still expected to begin at that time, though a little less than the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 16.3N 123.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 16.6N 124.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 17.1N 126.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 17.6N 129.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 17.7N 131.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 18.0N 134.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 18.5N 138.6W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Alaka/Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 212038 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 34 16(50) 3(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) 15N 125W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 13(22) 4(26) X(26) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 32(44) 4(48) 1(49) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 39(44) 9(53) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ALAKA/PAPIN

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 212038 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.2W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 110SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.2W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 16.6N 124.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.1N 126.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 129.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 134.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 138.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ALAKA/PAPIN

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 212038 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024 ...GILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 123.2W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 123.2 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A continued slow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next day, and Gilma could become a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Alaka/Papin

...GILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Gilma was located near 16.3, -123.2 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

The Henderson County Fire Department has warned of heightened wildfire risks in West Tennessee and shared a video of a fire in Decatur County that occurred on Aug. 20. Officials asked people to be mindful of the dry conditions before burning. 39 News (Jackson, Tenn.), Aug 21, 2024

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 21 19:57:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1967 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD/NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1967 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern WY into western SD/NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 211955Z - 212100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusts of 55-70 mph and hail to 1.5 inches into this evening. Portions of the area may need a severe thunderstorm watch, but timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing across WY and western SD/NE this afternoon where strong heating into the 90s F has occurred. Boundary-layer moisture remains modest across much of the area, though 60s F dewpoints are noted into parts of SD. Cool temperatures aloft, aiding in steep midlevel lapse rates, are supporting weak to moderate instability across the region. High-based storms initially developing near higher terrain may pose a risk for strong outflow winds. Clustering may occur with eastward extent toward late afternoon/early evening as storms move into a more moist and unstable environment. Damaging gusts will be possible with this activity. Additionally, modest vertical shear amid a steep lapse rates environment could support a few instance of large hail in the 1-1.5 inch range with any stronger/longer-lived thunderstorm cores. The MCD area is being monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon. ..Leitman/Hart.. 08/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41060348 41020469 41070553 41350576 41830586 43370504 44390444 45020396 45150363 45170238 45000169 44230117 43100105 41550215 41040322 41060348 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...20z Updated... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor changes for the latest guidance. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of north-central OR late D2/Thursday into early D3/Friday. While a few of these storms may be on the drier side, confidence in the coverage of storms and lightning over dry fuels remains too low for dry thunder probabilities. See the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southward-moving shortwave trough is forecast to approach the Oregon/Washington coasts on Thursday, before moving east on Friday. This will result in an intensified height gradient across the Great Basin and a deepening surface low over Oregon that will bring widespread dry/windy conditions to portions of Oregon, Nevada, and Idaho. ...Dry/Windy... Critical fire-weather conditions are forecast across southwestern and central Nevada, where single-digit relative humidity values and winds of 25-30 MPH will overlap with ERC values exceeding the 80th-98th annual percentiles. Uncertainty exists in the eastward extent of the Critical area due to recent wetting rainfall and a tight gradient in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread, and some areal expansion may be needed in future updates. Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected on the periphery of the Critical highlight area, as well as portions of northwestern Nevada into southeastern Oregon. Southeastern Oregon and northwestern Nevada will have slightly higher boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15%, and slightly slower wind speeds of 20-25 MPH. However, fuels in the region are widely receptive to wildfire spread, and if surface winds trend higher, a subsequent upgrade to Critical may be needed in this area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more