Aggregator

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220836 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 110SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 124.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.2N 126.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.5N 127.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.8N 129.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.3N 132.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.6N 136.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and near the Four Corners. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Heights associated with a Great Plains upper-level ridge will rise on Saturday, as the ridge moves slowly eastward. A north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to the west of the ridge across the central and northern Plains. Moderate instability will likely develop across much of this airmass by afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms forming along the western edge of the instability corridor from west-central Nebraska into the western Dakotas. With the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas. This, combined with steep lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail. Due to the presence of the ridge, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. ...Four Corners... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Four Corners and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast over the Four Corners, where destabilization will take place during the day. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the Four Corners region Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in the Four Corners vicinity have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in most areas between 30 and 40 knots. Lapse rates are also forecast to become steep from the surface to 700 mb. This environment should support an isolated severe threat with marginally severe gusts and hail possible. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and near the Four Corners. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Heights associated with a Great Plains upper-level ridge will rise on Saturday, as the ridge moves slowly eastward. A north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to the west of the ridge across the central and northern Plains. Moderate instability will likely develop across much of this airmass by afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms forming along the western edge of the instability corridor from west-central Nebraska into the western Dakotas. With the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas. This, combined with steep lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail. Due to the presence of the ridge, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. ...Four Corners... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Four Corners and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast over the Four Corners, where destabilization will take place during the day. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the Four Corners region Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in the Four Corners vicinity have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in most areas between 30 and 40 knots. Lapse rates are also forecast to become steep from the surface to 700 mb. This environment should support an isolated severe threat with marginally severe gusts and hail possible. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and near the Four Corners. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Heights associated with a Great Plains upper-level ridge will rise on Saturday, as the ridge moves slowly eastward. A north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to the west of the ridge across the central and northern Plains. Moderate instability will likely develop across much of this airmass by afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms forming along the western edge of the instability corridor from west-central Nebraska into the western Dakotas. With the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas. This, combined with steep lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail. Due to the presence of the ridge, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. ...Four Corners... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Four Corners and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast over the Four Corners, where destabilization will take place during the day. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the Four Corners region Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in the Four Corners vicinity have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in most areas between 30 and 40 knots. Lapse rates are also forecast to become steep from the surface to 700 mb. This environment should support an isolated severe threat with marginally severe gusts and hail possible. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and near the Four Corners. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Heights associated with a Great Plains upper-level ridge will rise on Saturday, as the ridge moves slowly eastward. A north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to the west of the ridge across the central and northern Plains. Moderate instability will likely develop across much of this airmass by afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms forming along the western edge of the instability corridor from west-central Nebraska into the western Dakotas. With the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas. This, combined with steep lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail. Due to the presence of the ridge, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. ...Four Corners... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Four Corners and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast over the Four Corners, where destabilization will take place during the day. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the Four Corners region Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in the Four Corners vicinity have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in most areas between 30 and 40 knots. Lapse rates are also forecast to become steep from the surface to 700 mb. This environment should support an isolated severe threat with marginally severe gusts and hail possible. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and near the Four Corners. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Heights associated with a Great Plains upper-level ridge will rise on Saturday, as the ridge moves slowly eastward. A north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to the west of the ridge across the central and northern Plains. Moderate instability will likely develop across much of this airmass by afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms forming along the western edge of the instability corridor from west-central Nebraska into the western Dakotas. With the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas. This, combined with steep lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail. Due to the presence of the ridge, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. ...Four Corners... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Four Corners and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast over the Four Corners, where destabilization will take place during the day. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the Four Corners region Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in the Four Corners vicinity have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in most areas between 30 and 40 knots. Lapse rates are also forecast to become steep from the surface to 700 mb. This environment should support an isolated severe threat with marginally severe gusts and hail possible. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and near the Four Corners. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Heights associated with a Great Plains upper-level ridge will rise on Saturday, as the ridge moves slowly eastward. A north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to the west of the ridge across the central and northern Plains. Moderate instability will likely develop across much of this airmass by afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms forming along the western edge of the instability corridor from west-central Nebraska into the western Dakotas. With the moist airmass, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 knot range in most areas. This, combined with steep lapse rates, will likely be sufficient for an isolated threat for severe gusts and hail. Due to the presence of the ridge, any severe threat is expected to be marginal. ...Four Corners... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Intermountain West on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over the Four Corners and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is forecast over the Four Corners, where destabilization will take place during the day. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop throughout the Four Corners region Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z in the Four Corners vicinity have MLCAPE peaking between 500 and 1000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in most areas between 30 and 40 knots. Lapse rates are also forecast to become steep from the surface to 700 mb. This environment should support an isolated severe threat with marginally severe gusts and hail possible. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND IN PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the central and northern High Plains, and in parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies. ...Central and Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Great Plains on Friday. At the surface, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be located across the central and northern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop throughout much of this moist airmass. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon over the western edge of the stronger instability, with storm coverage remaining relatively sparse due to subsidence associated with the upper-level ridge. Forecast soundings have directional shear in the low-levels and speed shear aloft over much of the moist airmass. The moderate deep-layer shear combined with steep mid-level lapse rates should support a threat for hail and severe wind gusts. However, the threat should be marginal. ...Intermountain West/Central Rockies... An upper-level low will move to near the coast of Oregon on Friday, as southwest mid-level flow remains over much of the western U.S. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Four Corners region, where an axis of moisture and instability will likely be in place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from parts of eastern Utah into western and central Colorado, and northward into western Wyoming. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear around 35 knots. Low-level lapse rates will also be steep in the afternoon. This environment should support a marginal potential for hail and severe wind gusts during the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF UTAH AND EXTREME EASTERN NEVADA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts will be possible across the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, and also from northern Arizona into parts of Utah. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the West later today, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves slowly southward off of the Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream of this trough, a midlevel shortwave and related surface low are forecast to move east-northeast across parts of SK/MB, with a trailing cold front moving into parts of the northern Great Plains. Other low-amplitude shortwaves along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper-level trough may move across parts of the central Rockies/High Plains. ...Central High Plains... Low-level southeasterly flow is expected to persist across parts of the central High Plains today, to the north of a weak surface low over the TX/OK Panhandle region. This will maintain sufficient low-level moisture to support moderate destabilization by late afternoon, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Initially high-based convection that develops near the Front Range may intensify by late afternoon into early evening, as it moves eastward into increasingly favorable instability. While deep-layer flow will remain rather modest, southeasterly low-level flow veering to southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for somewhat organized convection. Localized severe gusts may be the most prominent hazard, as storms and their related outflows increase in coverage by late afternoon into the evening. Isolated hail will also be possible, especially with any storm that can persist near the stronger instability axis from far eastern CO into western KS/NE. Higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for parts of the region, if confidence increases in a focused corridor of greater severe potential. ...Eastern Dakotas into Minnesota... Early-day convection and possibly a remnant MCS are expected to move across eastern ND into northwest MN later this morning. Moderate MUCAPE could support an isolated severe threat with the morning storms as they move eastward. Later in the day, moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of the weakening cold front, and potentially near any remnant outflow boundaries. With the primary shortwave trough and any MCV related to morning convection expected to move away from the region through the day, coverage of storm redevelopment during the afternoon could be relatively limited. However, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, and isolated hail/damaging wind could accompany any stronger redevelopment. ...Parts of northern Arizona into Utah... A relatively favorable environment for organized convection may evolve this afternoon from northwest/north-central AZ into UT, where increasing mid/upper-level flow related to the amplifying trough will overlap the western periphery of monsoonal moisture. However, guidance varies regarding the magnitude of heating and destabilization, with potential for relatively early storm development. Effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few organized cells/clusters through the day, and isolated hail and/or severe gusts will be possible with the strongest storms. ...South-central Texas... High-based convection appears possible across parts of south-central TX this afternoon, in response to strong heating/mixing in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/dryline. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear are both expected to remain weak, so any storms will likely remain disorganized, but inverted-v profiles may support isolated downburst winds late this afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean/Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220530
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about one thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually increased tonight in
association with an area of low pressure located well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands. A slight improvement in organization could
result in the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm
on Thursday while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This
system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin early
Thursday morning, where it is then forecast to strengthen during the
next couple of days and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central portion of the
East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH AND SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A deepening mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West as upper ridging continues across the Plains to the Eastern Seaboard tomorrow (Friday). Strong mid-level flow aloft and associated upper support, amid a deep, dry boundary layer, will foster Elevated to Critical conditions across the Great Basin, with sustained southwesterly surface winds approaching 25 mph in spots, and RH dipping into the 15-20 percent range. Furthermore, upper support amid adequate buoyancy will promote the development of both wet and dry thunderstorms across portions of the Pacific Northwest (mainly central into eastern Oregon). Given receptive fuels in the area, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more