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The Blackfoot River was low enough that almost 90 irrigators were asked to forgo drawing water from the river. Anglers were asked to avoid fishing in the heat of the day and to use artificial lures and simple hooks that are less damaging to the fish. KPAX (Missoula, Mont.), June 27, 2024

MD 1455 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0811 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478... Valid 280111Z - 280245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a QLCS tornado remains possible. DISCUSSION...A mature MCS with a history of several severe gusts (some of which were measured in the 80-90 mph range per surface observations) continues across western ND/SD. The most recent significant-severe gusts have occurred within mesovortices across southwestern ND, where a QLCS tornado also remains possible. However, 00Z mesoanalysis depicts 0-3 km lapse rates rapidly decreasing over ND with east extent, but with 6 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates present over a wider corridor in SD. As such, severe gust potential (including peak 75-85 mph gusts) will be greatest over southern ND into northern SD for at least a few more hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43880095 46560203 48050262 48430262 48500119 47920019 46599945 45239914 44329928 43799998 43880095 Read more

MD 1454 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475... FOR NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...northeastern Wyoming into western South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475... Valid 272347Z - 280145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for locally damaging gusts and isolated hail should gradually increase across northern portions of WW 475 over the next 1 to 2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated strong storms east of the Black hills, and a separate/expanding cluster of storms moving eastward out of southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming into northern portions of WW 475. With a moist/moderately unstable environment in the vicinity of the warm and cold fronts and the narrow warm sector in between, and veering flow with height providing ample shear for rotating storms, the overall environment remains supportive of large hail and damaging gusts with stronger storms. As such, as the convection spreads eastward into western South Dakota, severe risk should gradually increase. ..Goss.. 06/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ... LAT...LON 45130421 45960385 45940212 44190113 43460129 43350310 44060530 44850535 45130421 Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0476 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W Y22 TO 15 SE DIK TO 30 SE ISN TO 35 W MOT. WW 476 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 280300Z. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 476 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-025-041-089-280300- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DUNN HETTINGER STARK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 476 TORNADO ND 272145Z - 280300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 345 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western North Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 345 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Isolated supercells will possibly develop late this afternoon into the evening across western North Dakota. In addition to the threat for a couple of tornadoes, a risk for large to very large hail (diameters 1 to 3 inches) and severe gusts will also accompany any discrete supercells. A band of severe thunderstorms is forecast to move west to east across the Watch area later this evening. A risk for a tornado may exist with any supercell embedded within the broken band. Severe gusts (60-80 mph) will be likely with the more intense portions of the band of storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Williston ND to 60 miles south southwest of Dickinson ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...WW 474...WW 475... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm threat is over parts of the northern/central High Plains this evening and tonight. Severe gusts, including some 75+ mph are possible. ...Northern and central Plains... An upper low over the northern Rockies will continue to overspread a warm and moist air mass across the northern Plains this evening. As an attendant surface low deepens, strong mass response and an increasing low-level jet will support further intensification of an ongoing MCS over the western Dakotas. This MCS should continue east/southeast with the potential for severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph) and perhaps a tornado with embedded QLCS circulations. Convection should begin to weaken as it approaches the eastern edge of the buoyancy plume across east-central ND/SD later tonight. Sporadic storms farther south have struggled to remain organized amid warm mid-level temperatures. Isolated storms will remain possible this evening under weak ascent from the northern Rockies upper low and the increase in the nocturnal low-level jet. Moderate buoyancy and 30-40 kt of effective shear support a risk for organized storms capable of hail and damaging gusts, though confidence in convective evolution is low. ...Southern Plains... A loosely organized cluster of storms ongoing from the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest KS should continue eastward within a hot and moist air mass across the southern Plains. Deep-layer shear remains rather weak, but an increase in the low-level jet could support some intensification and additional storm development over southern KS this evening. Damaging gusts and sporadic hail will remain possible before convection gradually diminishes tonight. ...Eastern Great Basin and Southwest... Scattered storms over the Western Slope and Southwest should continue this evening as ascent from the northern Rockies upper low continues over seasonably high moisture. Storm coverage will slowly diminish as buoyancy continues to decrease in the wake of air mass overturning. Still, residual storms interacting with 30-40 kt of mid-level flow could support the risk for an isolated damaging gust or sporadic hail for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2024 Read more