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WW 481 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 290330Z - 290900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas West-Central Missouri * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1030 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely continue east from eastern Kansas into west-central Missouri tonight. Strong to severe gusts (55-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard. Large hail (around 1 inch in diameter) is possible with any stronger storms on the flank of the larger-scale thunderstorm cluster. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 90 miles west southwest of Knob Noster MO to 45 miles east southeast of Knob Noster MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 480... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Smith Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 290536
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-107-121-290540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON LINN MIAMI MOC013-015-029-037-039-083-085-101-141-159-185-217-290540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATES BENTON CAMDEN CASS CEDAR HENRY HICKORY JOHNSON MORGAN PETTIS ST. CLAIR VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1468 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 480... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1468 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0927 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 480... Valid 290227Z - 290400Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 480. Severe wind and hail are the main threats, though a tornado remains possible. DISCUSSION...The severe threat is generally confined to two main areas of convection. The first is in far eastern KS with a dominant supercell, and the other is with a supercell over extreme northwestern MO. Both of these storms persist amid an axis of strong buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, supercell structures may be maintained for another hour or so, before upscale growth into storm clusters occurs, accompanied by a continued threat for severe gusts and large hail. A tornado also remains possible. However, the supercell over eastern KS appears to be HP and is potentially merging with nearby convection. Some of the latest HRRR runs depict the possibility of ongoing storms merging into a bow-echo structure. Should this occur, severe gusts will become the main threat. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38979659 39629602 40199552 40519511 40549453 40459404 40429387 39719311 39079324 38369415 38089493 38099574 38239612 38979659 Read more

MD 1469 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1469 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0942 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 290242Z - 290345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A localized threat for mainly severe gusts and perhaps hail will accompany a cluster of storms over northwestern MN for a couple more hours. Given the localized nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not needed. DISCUSSION...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms has intensified over the past hour, with a measured 72 mph wind gust recently reported. This thunderstorm cluster is rapidly translating eastward amid a marginally buoyant but adequately sheared environment (elongated hodographs and accompanying 50 kts of effective bulk shear). The severe threat should be confined to this small storm cluster, and the duration of these storms may be temporally limited by increasing MLCINH. Nonetheless, a couple more severe gusts cannot be ruled out. Given the brief, localized nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not needed. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47029530 47139613 47339659 47589677 47899668 47959560 47389411 46999433 47029530 Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0481 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1467 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0814 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern Colorado...southwestern Nebraska...and northwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 290114Z - 290245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Risk for damaging winds appears to be increasing from parts of northeastern Colorado and far southwestern Nebraska, across northwestern Kansas. New WW issuance is being considered. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a supercell storm that has developed over the past hour now moving across Dundy County Nebraska. Meanwhile, additional storm are initiating west and northwest of KITR (Burlington, CO). This convection is evolving in a loosely analogous manner to that depicted by most recent runs of the HRRR, which suggest upscale growth of the storms as they move eastward into an increasingly unstable airmass with time. With this region on the southern fringe of the belt of stronger mid-level westerlies, relatively fast, east-southeastward progression of the convection is expected. Risk for gusty/damaging winds will likely be enhanced by the deep mixed layer evident across the area, where around 40-degree surface temperature/dewpoint depression is indicated. Assuming continued development/upscale growth, damaging wind risk may warrant WW issuance. ..Goss/Smith.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 39390308 40180280 40500170 40199935 38909969 38450152 38610307 39390308 Read more

MD 1466 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1466 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0808 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 290108Z - 290245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe threat is possible over the next couple of hours over western into central IA. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main threats. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a baroclinic boundary in western Iowa, where at least a few landspouts have already occurred. These storms are intensifying in an environment characterized by 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 40 kts of effective bulk shear. While landspouts remain possible over the next hour or so, the ongoing storms should move away from the boundary with a continued threat of marginal severe hail and wind. It is unclear how prevalent the severe threat will be in the long term, but convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON 40659583 41549505 42069442 42049377 41589302 41049289 40599317 40449402 40479499 40659583 Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP TO 25 WSW MHK TO 20 W FNB. ..GOSS..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-013-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-111- 121-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-209-290340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095- 101-107-115-117-129-147-165-171-177-195-211-227-290340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP TO 25 WSW MHK TO 20 W FNB. ..GOSS..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-013-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-111- 121-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-209-290340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095- 101-107-115-117-129-147-165-171-177-195-211-227-290340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP TO 25 WSW MHK TO 20 W FNB. ..GOSS..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-013-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-111- 121-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-209-290340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095- 101-107-115-117-129-147-165-171-177-195-211-227-290340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP TO 25 WSW MHK TO 20 W FNB. ..GOSS..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-013-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-111- 121-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-209-290340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095- 101-107-115-117-129-147-165-171-177-195-211-227-290340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS Read more

WW 0480 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM EMP TO 25 WSW MHK TO 20 W FNB. ..GOSS..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 480 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-005-013-031-041-043-045-059-061-085-087-091-103-107-111- 121-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-209-290340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WYANDOTTE MOC003-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-061-063-075-079-081-087-095- 101-107-115-117-129-147-165-171-177-195-211-227-290340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW BUCHANAN CALDWELL CARROLL CASS CHARITON CLAY CLINTON DAVIESS Read more

WW 480 TORNADO KS MO 282220Z - 290400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central into Eastern Kansas Western and Northern Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 520 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop into the evening across the Watch area. A few supercells are possible, and an accompanying risk for large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and a threat for a couple of tornadoes, will potentially maximize during the early to mid evening. If a cluster of storms can develop later this evening, a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) will become an increasing severe hazard, in addition to a threat for hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles east of Chillicothe MO to 40 miles west southwest of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1465 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 480... FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 480... Valid 290030Z - 290200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 480 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 480. Severe gusts remain the primary threat in the near term, with large hail also possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out if storms can develop or move into an environment characterized by better low-level shear. DISCUSSION...Intense multicell and transient supercell structures continue to progress eastward across northeastern KS amid a strongly unstable environment (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 00Z TOP RAOB). Regional radar suggests these storms are exceeding 50 kft in height, with the Geary County, KS having a history of severe hail and wind gusts (including a recent report of an ASOS-measured 75 mph gust). Despite around 45 kts of effective bulk shear present (00Z TOP RAOB), regional VADs depict modest low-level shear over eastern KS, which may be why the ongoing storms have been outflow dominant, struggling to maintain classic supercell structure. As such, severe gusts should remain the main threat, at least in the near term. Severe hail will also be possible with updrafts reaching peak intensity. A southwesterly 925-850 mb low-level jet is forecast to intensify through evening, which should boost low-level hodograph size and curvature, If relatively discrete storms can avoid being undercut by outflow and ingest greater low-level shear this evening (before the boundary-layer stabilizes), a tornado may still occur. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39129734 39819634 40429439 40499320 40109295 39389292 38939372 38579479 38359562 38479641 38689705 39129734 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and large hail along with a couple of tornadoes may occur into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Lower Missouri Valley. ...01Z Update... Primary severe thunderstorm development has occurred near the I-70 corridor in northeast KS where slow-moving supercells have produced measured severe wind gusts to 75 mph and hail up to golf balls thus far. Very rich mean mixing ratios approaching 20 g/kg as sampled by the 00Z Topeka sounding in conjunction with around 45 kt effective bulk shear will favor supercell structures and organized clustering through the rest of the evening. Please see MCD 1465 for further discussion of the expected hazards. Additional storms should intensify north-northeastward along the surface front into southwest/west-central IA with a mixed severe threat spreading east in parts of IA/MO. High-based storms over the central High Plains should intensify as they impinge on richer buoyancy downstream along the KS/NE border, and will likely be maintained into the overnight period along the central Great Plains baroclinic zone. Isolated severe storms will remain possible, mainly through the rest of the evening, across parts of the Upper Midwest. This thunderstorm activity will be aided by a shortwave trough moving east from ND towards western Lake Superior. Despite ample effective bulk shear, weak MLCAPE and stronger forcing for ascent occurring behind the surface cold front, should limit the overall severe risk. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 Read more