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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0955 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of southeast California into southern Nevada that overlap with the current Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory for well above normal fine fuel loading. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 06/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Northern Plains today as upper ridging builds over the Interior West. A surface cold front trailing the mid-level trough will sweep southward across the northern High Plains while monsoonal mid-level moisture meanders over the central Rockies into parts of the Desert Southwest. While elevated to critically dry and windy conditions will accompany the cold front across portions of southern Wyoming, fuels are too poorly receptive to support significant wildfire-spread potential. The thunderstorms supported by monsoonal moisture across the central Rockies into the Southwest should also be relatively slow moving, wet, and will traverse areas that have received rainfall in previous days. As such, lightning should occur over relatively moist fuels, limiting wildfire ignitions to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be possible from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level perturbation influencing convective potential this period is a strong shortwave trough accompanying a small cyclone now centered over southwestern SK. The cyclone is expected to open up today, with a 00Z trough position from southwestern MB southwestward across northern/western ND to northeastern WY. The trough should accelerate eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas and MN overnight, reaching WI and Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow. This will occur as a closely following shortwave digs southeastward across southern MB toward northwestern MN. The subtropical ridge will build across the Southeast, southern Plains and into parts of the Desert Southwest. Despite rising absolute height values, this will yield a tightening height gradient across the central Great Plains between the ridge and the northern-stream trough. The 11Z surface analysis showed a low over eastern ND, with cold front extending across eastern SD, central NE, northwestern KS, and east-central CO. A surface trough was drawn from a cold-frontal intersection over central NE south-southwestward to the southern High Plains. The low should cross the Boundary Waters region of the MN/ON border this afternoon through 00Z, when the cold front should extend to southern MN, southeastern NE, through a weak frontal-wave low over central/north-central KS, to southwestern KS, becoming a diffuse warm front over eastern CO. By 12Z, the low should reach that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior, with cold front to eastern Upper MI, Lake Michigan, southeastern WI, then near a line from DVN-MKC-ICT-DHT. ...Central Plains to Mississippi Valley... This severe-risk area is a composite of two separate potential convective episodes, with the western (second) potentially lasting long enough and far enough east to overlap into the hours-earlier starting region of the first. 1. Lower Missouri Valley, eastern NE/northern KS eastward: An extensive area of clouds and precip, with isolated to widely scattered, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites and satellite imagery from astern MN and WI across parts of IA, northern/western MO and eastern KS. Although this will delay substantial diurnal heating across much of the mid/upper Mississippi and lower Missouri Valley regions, sufficient destabilization (from diabatic heating and warm advection) is expected by midafternoon to support surface-based development near the cold front. Favorable low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will support a prefrontal plume of MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range. Modest low-level flow will limit ambient hodograph size, but sufficient deep shear will exist (effective-shear magnitudes 35-45 kt) to support both supercells and organized multicells. Backing of winds along and just north of the front also will enlarge hodographs in a narrow corridor, with vorticity from the boundary potentially ingested into favorably positioned updrafts for locally boosted tornado potential. Development should be most likely and dense near and northeast of the frontal-wave low, south of which low-level lift will weaken amid rising heights aloft, and buoyancy will decrease toward the OK border. As such, probabilities for this lobe of the outlook area have been tightened northward somewhat. Still, upscale coalescence into one or more clusters/lines should occur, with severe wind the greatest threat this evening into tonight, and a tornado or two possible. 2. Central High Plains and eastward: Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over higher terrain of western/central CO, with additional initiation possible on the foothills, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. This convection will be supported by sustained diurnal heating and related weakening of MLCINH, along with moist advection and upslope lift by the easterly component of post-frontal flow. That moist advection also should offset moisture loss from vertical mixing enough to maintain buoyancy, with MLCAPE in the 250-800 J/kg range. A deep subcloud mixed layer with steep lapse rates will encourage strong-severe downdrafts. Though weak, low-level flow will veer with height, leading to long hodographs and contributing to effective-shear magnitudes ranging from around 30 kt in the southwestern part of the outlook (where coverage also is more uncertain but conditional severe potential still apparent) to 45-50 kt over and downshear from the Cheyenne Ridge. As such, a high-based mix of multicells and supercells is possible, offering mainly damaging gusts and large hail (each with some significant severe possible). One or more clusters may evolve and move eastward to southeastward over KS this evening and overnight, with severe gusts the main concern. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be possible from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level perturbation influencing convective potential this period is a strong shortwave trough accompanying a small cyclone now centered over southwestern SK. The cyclone is expected to open up today, with a 00Z trough position from southwestern MB southwestward across northern/western ND to northeastern WY. The trough should accelerate eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas and MN overnight, reaching WI and Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow. This will occur as a closely following shortwave digs southeastward across southern MB toward northwestern MN. The subtropical ridge will build across the Southeast, southern Plains and into parts of the Desert Southwest. Despite rising absolute height values, this will yield a tightening height gradient across the central Great Plains between the ridge and the northern-stream trough. The 11Z surface analysis showed a low over eastern ND, with cold front extending across eastern SD, central NE, northwestern KS, and east-central CO. A surface trough was drawn from a cold-frontal intersection over central NE south-southwestward to the southern High Plains. The low should cross the Boundary Waters region of the MN/ON border this afternoon through 00Z, when the cold front should extend to southern MN, southeastern NE, through a weak frontal-wave low over central/north-central KS, to southwestern KS, becoming a diffuse warm front over eastern CO. By 12Z, the low should reach that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior, with cold front to eastern Upper MI, Lake Michigan, southeastern WI, then near a line from DVN-MKC-ICT-DHT. ...Central Plains to Mississippi Valley... This severe-risk area is a composite of two separate potential convective episodes, with the western (second) potentially lasting long enough and far enough east to overlap into the hours-earlier starting region of the first. 1. Lower Missouri Valley, eastern NE/northern KS eastward: An extensive area of clouds and precip, with isolated to widely scattered, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites and satellite imagery from astern MN and WI across parts of IA, northern/western MO and eastern KS. Although this will delay substantial diurnal heating across much of the mid/upper Mississippi and lower Missouri Valley regions, sufficient destabilization (from diabatic heating and warm advection) is expected by midafternoon to support surface-based development near the cold front. Favorable low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will support a prefrontal plume of MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range. Modest low-level flow will limit ambient hodograph size, but sufficient deep shear will exist (effective-shear magnitudes 35-45 kt) to support both supercells and organized multicells. Backing of winds along and just north of the front also will enlarge hodographs in a narrow corridor, with vorticity from the boundary potentially ingested into favorably positioned updrafts for locally boosted tornado potential. Development should be most likely and dense near and northeast of the frontal-wave low, south of which low-level lift will weaken amid rising heights aloft, and buoyancy will decrease toward the OK border. As such, probabilities for this lobe of the outlook area have been tightened northward somewhat. Still, upscale coalescence into one or more clusters/lines should occur, with severe wind the greatest threat this evening into tonight, and a tornado or two possible. 2. Central High Plains and eastward: Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over higher terrain of western/central CO, with additional initiation possible on the foothills, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. This convection will be supported by sustained diurnal heating and related weakening of MLCINH, along with moist advection and upslope lift by the easterly component of post-frontal flow. That moist advection also should offset moisture loss from vertical mixing enough to maintain buoyancy, with MLCAPE in the 250-800 J/kg range. A deep subcloud mixed layer with steep lapse rates will encourage strong-severe downdrafts. Though weak, low-level flow will veer with height, leading to long hodographs and contributing to effective-shear magnitudes ranging from around 30 kt in the southwestern part of the outlook (where coverage also is more uncertain but conditional severe potential still apparent) to 45-50 kt over and downshear from the Cheyenne Ridge. As such, a high-based mix of multicells and supercells is possible, offering mainly damaging gusts and large hail (each with some significant severe possible). One or more clusters may evolve and move eastward to southeastward over KS this evening and overnight, with severe gusts the main concern. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be possible from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level perturbation influencing convective potential this period is a strong shortwave trough accompanying a small cyclone now centered over southwestern SK. The cyclone is expected to open up today, with a 00Z trough position from southwestern MB southwestward across northern/western ND to northeastern WY. The trough should accelerate eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas and MN overnight, reaching WI and Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow. This will occur as a closely following shortwave digs southeastward across southern MB toward northwestern MN. The subtropical ridge will build across the Southeast, southern Plains and into parts of the Desert Southwest. Despite rising absolute height values, this will yield a tightening height gradient across the central Great Plains between the ridge and the northern-stream trough. The 11Z surface analysis showed a low over eastern ND, with cold front extending across eastern SD, central NE, northwestern KS, and east-central CO. A surface trough was drawn from a cold-frontal intersection over central NE south-southwestward to the southern High Plains. The low should cross the Boundary Waters region of the MN/ON border this afternoon through 00Z, when the cold front should extend to southern MN, southeastern NE, through a weak frontal-wave low over central/north-central KS, to southwestern KS, becoming a diffuse warm front over eastern CO. By 12Z, the low should reach that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior, with cold front to eastern Upper MI, Lake Michigan, southeastern WI, then near a line from DVN-MKC-ICT-DHT. ...Central Plains to Mississippi Valley... This severe-risk area is a composite of two separate potential convective episodes, with the western (second) potentially lasting long enough and far enough east to overlap into the hours-earlier starting region of the first. 1. Lower Missouri Valley, eastern NE/northern KS eastward: An extensive area of clouds and precip, with isolated to widely scattered, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites and satellite imagery from astern MN and WI across parts of IA, northern/western MO and eastern KS. Although this will delay substantial diurnal heating across much of the mid/upper Mississippi and lower Missouri Valley regions, sufficient destabilization (from diabatic heating and warm advection) is expected by midafternoon to support surface-based development near the cold front. Favorable low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will support a prefrontal plume of MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range. Modest low-level flow will limit ambient hodograph size, but sufficient deep shear will exist (effective-shear magnitudes 35-45 kt) to support both supercells and organized multicells. Backing of winds along and just north of the front also will enlarge hodographs in a narrow corridor, with vorticity from the boundary potentially ingested into favorably positioned updrafts for locally boosted tornado potential. Development should be most likely and dense near and northeast of the frontal-wave low, south of which low-level lift will weaken amid rising heights aloft, and buoyancy will decrease toward the OK border. As such, probabilities for this lobe of the outlook area have been tightened northward somewhat. Still, upscale coalescence into one or more clusters/lines should occur, with severe wind the greatest threat this evening into tonight, and a tornado or two possible. 2. Central High Plains and eastward: Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over higher terrain of western/central CO, with additional initiation possible on the foothills, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. This convection will be supported by sustained diurnal heating and related weakening of MLCINH, along with moist advection and upslope lift by the easterly component of post-frontal flow. That moist advection also should offset moisture loss from vertical mixing enough to maintain buoyancy, with MLCAPE in the 250-800 J/kg range. A deep subcloud mixed layer with steep lapse rates will encourage strong-severe downdrafts. Though weak, low-level flow will veer with height, leading to long hodographs and contributing to effective-shear magnitudes ranging from around 30 kt in the southwestern part of the outlook (where coverage also is more uncertain but conditional severe potential still apparent) to 45-50 kt over and downshear from the Cheyenne Ridge. As such, a high-based mix of multicells and supercells is possible, offering mainly damaging gusts and large hail (each with some significant severe possible). One or more clusters may evolve and move eastward to southeastward over KS this evening and overnight, with severe gusts the main concern. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be possible from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level perturbation influencing convective potential this period is a strong shortwave trough accompanying a small cyclone now centered over southwestern SK. The cyclone is expected to open up today, with a 00Z trough position from southwestern MB southwestward across northern/western ND to northeastern WY. The trough should accelerate eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas and MN overnight, reaching WI and Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow. This will occur as a closely following shortwave digs southeastward across southern MB toward northwestern MN. The subtropical ridge will build across the Southeast, southern Plains and into parts of the Desert Southwest. Despite rising absolute height values, this will yield a tightening height gradient across the central Great Plains between the ridge and the northern-stream trough. The 11Z surface analysis showed a low over eastern ND, with cold front extending across eastern SD, central NE, northwestern KS, and east-central CO. A surface trough was drawn from a cold-frontal intersection over central NE south-southwestward to the southern High Plains. The low should cross the Boundary Waters region of the MN/ON border this afternoon through 00Z, when the cold front should extend to southern MN, southeastern NE, through a weak frontal-wave low over central/north-central KS, to southwestern KS, becoming a diffuse warm front over eastern CO. By 12Z, the low should reach that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior, with cold front to eastern Upper MI, Lake Michigan, southeastern WI, then near a line from DVN-MKC-ICT-DHT. ...Central Plains to Mississippi Valley... This severe-risk area is a composite of two separate potential convective episodes, with the western (second) potentially lasting long enough and far enough east to overlap into the hours-earlier starting region of the first. 1. Lower Missouri Valley, eastern NE/northern KS eastward: An extensive area of clouds and precip, with isolated to widely scattered, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites and satellite imagery from astern MN and WI across parts of IA, northern/western MO and eastern KS. Although this will delay substantial diurnal heating across much of the mid/upper Mississippi and lower Missouri Valley regions, sufficient destabilization (from diabatic heating and warm advection) is expected by midafternoon to support surface-based development near the cold front. Favorable low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will support a prefrontal plume of MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range. Modest low-level flow will limit ambient hodograph size, but sufficient deep shear will exist (effective-shear magnitudes 35-45 kt) to support both supercells and organized multicells. Backing of winds along and just north of the front also will enlarge hodographs in a narrow corridor, with vorticity from the boundary potentially ingested into favorably positioned updrafts for locally boosted tornado potential. Development should be most likely and dense near and northeast of the frontal-wave low, south of which low-level lift will weaken amid rising heights aloft, and buoyancy will decrease toward the OK border. As such, probabilities for this lobe of the outlook area have been tightened northward somewhat. Still, upscale coalescence into one or more clusters/lines should occur, with severe wind the greatest threat this evening into tonight, and a tornado or two possible. 2. Central High Plains and eastward: Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over higher terrain of western/central CO, with additional initiation possible on the foothills, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. This convection will be supported by sustained diurnal heating and related weakening of MLCINH, along with moist advection and upslope lift by the easterly component of post-frontal flow. That moist advection also should offset moisture loss from vertical mixing enough to maintain buoyancy, with MLCAPE in the 250-800 J/kg range. A deep subcloud mixed layer with steep lapse rates will encourage strong-severe downdrafts. Though weak, low-level flow will veer with height, leading to long hodographs and contributing to effective-shear magnitudes ranging from around 30 kt in the southwestern part of the outlook (where coverage also is more uncertain but conditional severe potential still apparent) to 45-50 kt over and downshear from the Cheyenne Ridge. As such, a high-based mix of multicells and supercells is possible, offering mainly damaging gusts and large hail (each with some significant severe possible). One or more clusters may evolve and move eastward to southeastward over KS this evening and overnight, with severe gusts the main concern. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be possible from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. ...Synopsis... The main mid/upper-level perturbation influencing convective potential this period is a strong shortwave trough accompanying a small cyclone now centered over southwestern SK. The cyclone is expected to open up today, with a 00Z trough position from southwestern MB southwestward across northern/western ND to northeastern WY. The trough should accelerate eastward across the remainder of the Dakotas and MN overnight, reaching WI and Lake Superior by 12Z tomorrow. This will occur as a closely following shortwave digs southeastward across southern MB toward northwestern MN. The subtropical ridge will build across the Southeast, southern Plains and into parts of the Desert Southwest. Despite rising absolute height values, this will yield a tightening height gradient across the central Great Plains between the ridge and the northern-stream trough. The 11Z surface analysis showed a low over eastern ND, with cold front extending across eastern SD, central NE, northwestern KS, and east-central CO. A surface trough was drawn from a cold-frontal intersection over central NE south-southwestward to the southern High Plains. The low should cross the Boundary Waters region of the MN/ON border this afternoon through 00Z, when the cold front should extend to southern MN, southeastern NE, through a weak frontal-wave low over central/north-central KS, to southwestern KS, becoming a diffuse warm front over eastern CO. By 12Z, the low should reach that portion of ON northeast of Lake Superior, with cold front to eastern Upper MI, Lake Michigan, southeastern WI, then near a line from DVN-MKC-ICT-DHT. ...Central Plains to Mississippi Valley... This severe-risk area is a composite of two separate potential convective episodes, with the western (second) potentially lasting long enough and far enough east to overlap into the hours-earlier starting region of the first. 1. Lower Missouri Valley, eastern NE/northern KS eastward: An extensive area of clouds and precip, with isolated to widely scattered, embedded, non-severe thunderstorms, was apparent in radar composites and satellite imagery from astern MN and WI across parts of IA, northern/western MO and eastern KS. Although this will delay substantial diurnal heating across much of the mid/upper Mississippi and lower Missouri Valley regions, sufficient destabilization (from diabatic heating and warm advection) is expected by midafternoon to support surface-based development near the cold front. Favorable low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will support a prefrontal plume of MLCAPE in the 2000-3500 J/kg range. Modest low-level flow will limit ambient hodograph size, but sufficient deep shear will exist (effective-shear magnitudes 35-45 kt) to support both supercells and organized multicells. Backing of winds along and just north of the front also will enlarge hodographs in a narrow corridor, with vorticity from the boundary potentially ingested into favorably positioned updrafts for locally boosted tornado potential. Development should be most likely and dense near and northeast of the frontal-wave low, south of which low-level lift will weaken amid rising heights aloft, and buoyancy will decrease toward the OK border. As such, probabilities for this lobe of the outlook area have been tightened northward somewhat. Still, upscale coalescence into one or more clusters/lines should occur, with severe wind the greatest threat this evening into tonight, and a tornado or two possible. 2. Central High Plains and eastward: Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon over higher terrain of western/central CO, with additional initiation possible on the foothills, Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. This convection will be supported by sustained diurnal heating and related weakening of MLCINH, along with moist advection and upslope lift by the easterly component of post-frontal flow. That moist advection also should offset moisture loss from vertical mixing enough to maintain buoyancy, with MLCAPE in the 250-800 J/kg range. A deep subcloud mixed layer with steep lapse rates will encourage strong-severe downdrafts. Though weak, low-level flow will veer with height, leading to long hodographs and contributing to effective-shear magnitudes ranging from around 30 kt in the southwestern part of the outlook (where coverage also is more uncertain but conditional severe potential still apparent) to 45-50 kt over and downshear from the Cheyenne Ridge. As such, a high-based mix of multicells and supercells is possible, offering mainly damaging gusts and large hail (each with some significant severe possible). One or more clusters may evolve and move eastward to southeastward over KS this evening and overnight, with severe gusts the main concern. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 06/28/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday: Central/northern Great Plains... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Great Plains on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. A warm front will lift northward across the central/northern Plains through the day, with very rich low-level moisture in place along/west of the warm front, and east of a weak cold front that will move into the western Dakotas. Some uncertainty remains regarding the potential for morning convection to limit destabilization with eastward and northward extent. However, moderate to strong buoyancy is forecast to develop from parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska, with increasing low-level and deep-layer shear supporting the potential for organized convection. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the various surface boundaries across the region as midlevel height falls overspread the region. Initial storms may evolve into supercells, with a threat for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of western MN/IA by Monday night. ...D5/Tuesday: East-central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some severe threat could develop on Tuesday from parts of the east-central Plains into the upper Midwest, in conjunction with the eastward-moving mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection, with potential for strong destabilization across areas where stronger diurnal heating occurs. However, uncertainty remains rather high regarding the favored corridor for severe thunderstorm development, given model differences in handling of the upper trough, and the potential for extensive antecedent convection. Severe probabilities will likely be needed at some point for parts of the region in subsequent outlooks. ...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday... Predictability begins to wane regarding the evolution of the surface and upper patterns by mid to late next week. Some severe threat may evolve across the Midwest on Wednesday in association with a cold front. A developing northwesterly flow regime could result in increasing severe potential across the Great Plains by Thursday into Friday, but uncertainty remains high regarding the details. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday: Central/northern Great Plains... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Great Plains on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. A warm front will lift northward across the central/northern Plains through the day, with very rich low-level moisture in place along/west of the warm front, and east of a weak cold front that will move into the western Dakotas. Some uncertainty remains regarding the potential for morning convection to limit destabilization with eastward and northward extent. However, moderate to strong buoyancy is forecast to develop from parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska, with increasing low-level and deep-layer shear supporting the potential for organized convection. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the various surface boundaries across the region as midlevel height falls overspread the region. Initial storms may evolve into supercells, with a threat for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of western MN/IA by Monday night. ...D5/Tuesday: East-central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some severe threat could develop on Tuesday from parts of the east-central Plains into the upper Midwest, in conjunction with the eastward-moving mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection, with potential for strong destabilization across areas where stronger diurnal heating occurs. However, uncertainty remains rather high regarding the favored corridor for severe thunderstorm development, given model differences in handling of the upper trough, and the potential for extensive antecedent convection. Severe probabilities will likely be needed at some point for parts of the region in subsequent outlooks. ...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday... Predictability begins to wane regarding the evolution of the surface and upper patterns by mid to late next week. Some severe threat may evolve across the Midwest on Wednesday in association with a cold front. A developing northwesterly flow regime could result in increasing severe potential across the Great Plains by Thursday into Friday, but uncertainty remains high regarding the details. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday: Central/northern Great Plains... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Great Plains on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. A warm front will lift northward across the central/northern Plains through the day, with very rich low-level moisture in place along/west of the warm front, and east of a weak cold front that will move into the western Dakotas. Some uncertainty remains regarding the potential for morning convection to limit destabilization with eastward and northward extent. However, moderate to strong buoyancy is forecast to develop from parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska, with increasing low-level and deep-layer shear supporting the potential for organized convection. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the various surface boundaries across the region as midlevel height falls overspread the region. Initial storms may evolve into supercells, with a threat for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of western MN/IA by Monday night. ...D5/Tuesday: East-central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some severe threat could develop on Tuesday from parts of the east-central Plains into the upper Midwest, in conjunction with the eastward-moving mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection, with potential for strong destabilization across areas where stronger diurnal heating occurs. However, uncertainty remains rather high regarding the favored corridor for severe thunderstorm development, given model differences in handling of the upper trough, and the potential for extensive antecedent convection. Severe probabilities will likely be needed at some point for parts of the region in subsequent outlooks. ...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday... Predictability begins to wane regarding the evolution of the surface and upper patterns by mid to late next week. Some severe threat may evolve across the Midwest on Wednesday in association with a cold front. A developing northwesterly flow regime could result in increasing severe potential across the Great Plains by Thursday into Friday, but uncertainty remains high regarding the details. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday: Central/northern Great Plains... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Great Plains on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. A warm front will lift northward across the central/northern Plains through the day, with very rich low-level moisture in place along/west of the warm front, and east of a weak cold front that will move into the western Dakotas. Some uncertainty remains regarding the potential for morning convection to limit destabilization with eastward and northward extent. However, moderate to strong buoyancy is forecast to develop from parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska, with increasing low-level and deep-layer shear supporting the potential for organized convection. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the various surface boundaries across the region as midlevel height falls overspread the region. Initial storms may evolve into supercells, with a threat for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of western MN/IA by Monday night. ...D5/Tuesday: East-central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some severe threat could develop on Tuesday from parts of the east-central Plains into the upper Midwest, in conjunction with the eastward-moving mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection, with potential for strong destabilization across areas where stronger diurnal heating occurs. However, uncertainty remains rather high regarding the favored corridor for severe thunderstorm development, given model differences in handling of the upper trough, and the potential for extensive antecedent convection. Severe probabilities will likely be needed at some point for parts of the region in subsequent outlooks. ...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday... Predictability begins to wane regarding the evolution of the surface and upper patterns by mid to late next week. Some severe threat may evolve across the Midwest on Wednesday in association with a cold front. A developing northwesterly flow regime could result in increasing severe potential across the Great Plains by Thursday into Friday, but uncertainty remains high regarding the details. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Monday: Central/northern Great Plains... A mid/upper-level trough with multiple embedded vorticity maxima is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Great Plains on Monday. A surface low is forecast to deepen over the Dakotas, along a surface trough. A warm front will lift northward across the central/northern Plains through the day, with very rich low-level moisture in place along/west of the warm front, and east of a weak cold front that will move into the western Dakotas. Some uncertainty remains regarding the potential for morning convection to limit destabilization with eastward and northward extent. However, moderate to strong buoyancy is forecast to develop from parts of the Dakotas into Nebraska, with increasing low-level and deep-layer shear supporting the potential for organized convection. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in the vicinity of the various surface boundaries across the region as midlevel height falls overspread the region. Initial storms may evolve into supercells, with a threat for all severe hazards. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as storms spread eastward, with a continued severe risk potentially reaching parts of western MN/IA by Monday night. ...D5/Tuesday: East-central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Some severe threat could develop on Tuesday from parts of the east-central Plains into the upper Midwest, in conjunction with the eastward-moving mid/upper-level trough and attendant cold front. Deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized convection, with potential for strong destabilization across areas where stronger diurnal heating occurs. However, uncertainty remains rather high regarding the favored corridor for severe thunderstorm development, given model differences in handling of the upper trough, and the potential for extensive antecedent convection. Severe probabilities will likely be needed at some point for parts of the region in subsequent outlooks. ...D6/Wednesday - D8/Friday... Predictability begins to wane regarding the evolution of the surface and upper patterns by mid to late next week. Some severe threat may evolve across the Midwest on Wednesday in association with a cold front. A developing northwesterly flow regime could result in increasing severe potential across the Great Plains by Thursday into Friday, but uncertainty remains high regarding the details. Read more

MD 1460 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479... FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1460 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...eastern South Dakota...southeastern North Dakota...west central and southwestern Minnesota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479... Valid 280628Z - 280830Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for strong, potentially damaging wind gusts appears to be in the process of waning and this probably will continue as convection spreads east of WW 479. A new severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...The conglomerate surface cold pool has maintained a general eastward propagation in excess of 40 kt, accompanied by occasional strong surface gusts. However, trends in MRMS CAPPI, among other data, suggest that peak intensities within the more intense leading line are diminishing, as increasingly elevated updraft inflow becomes less unstable. These trends are expected to continue as convection spreads into the upper Mississippi Valley through daybreak. ..Kerr.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 45379748 46499762 46519521 44009545 43219699 43709777 44589775 45379748 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND...AND ALSO FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds are possible across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday. Hail and severe gusts will also be possible from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Carolinas into the Northeast... A seasonably deep and positively tilted trough is forecast to move southeastward across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on Sunday. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of the eastern CONUS. Weak midlevel lapse rates could limit prefrontal destabilization to some extent across parts of the Northeast/New England, but potentially strong diurnal heating and sufficient deep-layer shear could result in scattered strong storms capable of scattered damaging wind and possibly some hail during the afternoon/evening. Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding timing of the front. A Slight Risk has been included from parts of the Mid Atlantic into New England, where organized damaging-wind potential appears most possible at this time. Some adjustments will likely be needed, depending on trends regarding timing of the front and prefrontal destabilization. Farther south, somewhat stronger destabilization will be possible into the Carolinas, within a very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow will be weaker, but modest west-northwesterlies aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated damaging wind. ...Montana into the western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from the Northwest across northern Rockies during the day on Sunday, with some influence of the trough expected to spread into the northern High Plains by Sunday evening. A surface low is expected to deepen across northern WY, with low-level moisture return expected east and north of the low into parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central MT, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern MT and the western Dakotas. Guidance still varies somewhat regarding timing of stronger ascent across the region, but storm development will be possible across western into central MT during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern MT. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central ND, as a low-level jet nocturnally strengthens. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central ND. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible into western SD. ...CO Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the CO Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicell clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...South-central Great Plains into the Southeast and TN Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not as influenced by early-day convection. Midlevel flow will likely remain weak, but may take on a more northerly component later in the day, which could provide sufficient deep-layer shear for briefly organized storms. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, no probabilities have been included for this regime at this time. ..Dean.. 06/28/2024 Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW MHE TO 20 SW HON TO 30 ESE HON TO 30 NW BKX. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 479 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 28/08Z. ..KERR..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC073-077-097-111-280800- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JERAULD KINGSBURY MINER SANBORN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more