Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 222324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
mostly to the west of its center. Environmental conditions are
generally conducive for development over the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week while the system moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 22 22:53:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 22 22:33:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1973 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF UTAH AND NORTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1973 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Utah and Northern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222028Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of large hail and damaging wind. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue and expand in coverage across portions of northern Arizona into Utah this afternoon/evening. Mid-level west to southwesterly flow around 30-40 kts through the base of a trough across the Pacific Northwest atop southeasterly flow near the surface is supporting modest shear around 30-35 kts across northwestern Arizona into central/northern Utah. Daytime heating has resulted in MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg across northwestern Arizona. In this region a few more organized transient supercells have been observed on radar, exhibiting broad weak rotation at times. Generally weak low-level flow and southwesterly mean flow led to back building cells along the terrain. Some instances of strong to severe gusts and severe hail will be possible given deep layer shear for organization and steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Overall, this threat is expected to remain localized and watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Thornton/Hart.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...FGZ...SLC...VEF...LKN... LAT...LON 36951454 37681438 39071408 40441358 41621307 41891287 41951198 41891135 41671104 40321121 39671137 38431188 37011162 36431158 36081156 35621191 35471255 35671333 36171407 36951454 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0423 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z An unseasonably deep upper low over the West Coast is forecast to move onshore over the Northwest through the weekend. Stronger southwesterly flow east of the low will overspread a modestly dry air mass across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest through the weekend. This should support elevated to critical fire-weather potential and some risk for isolated dry thunderstorms. ...Great Basin and Rockies... Strong west/southwesterly flow will continue to overspread the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of the upper low over the West. A cold front over the West coast will move inland shunting the warmer and drier air farther east. Widespread RH below 20% and wind of 20-25 mph are likely. A corridor of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions is expected over parts of eastern NV and across WY D3/Saturday. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions may continue into D4/Sunday before the upper low moves east and temporarily limits the fire-weather threat. While confidence is lower, owing to varied model solutions, at least some risk for dry and breezy conditions continues over central WY and the Rockies into early next week. ...Dry Thunder... As the upper low progresses eastward this weekend and early next week, at least some risk for occasional dry storms will continue over the northern Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Storms will gradually transition to a wetter mode as the increase in moisture should gradually limit fuels and chances for wetting rains increase. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 20:36:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 21:29:35 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222035 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 Gilma has maintained an impressive satellite appearance, with a clear warm eye surrounded by a ring of -60 to -70 C cold cloud tops. An SSMIS microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed the eyewall remains well organized and mostly closed, with only a limited number of rainbands observed outside of the inner core. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were CI 5.5/102 kt from SAB and 6.0/115 kt from TAFB, while objective intensity estimates largely fell in between these values. Thus, the initial intensity is being held at 110 kt for this advisory. A helpful scatterometer pass was used to help adjust some of the 34-kt and 50-kt radii this advisory. The hurricane continues to move slowly west-northwestward across the central portion of the East Pacific basin, with its estimated motion at 290/6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue over the next several days as Gilma is primarily influenced by a narrow mid-level ridge to its north, though a gradual turn more westward with some increase in forward motion is anticipated by early next week as mid-level ridging builds in a bit more towards the end of the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle is a bit more poleward and a little faster than the prior cycle, and the NHC track forecast was nudged in that direction, blending the previous forecast track with the track consensus aids. While I can not rule out a bit of additional intensification in the short-term, the slow motion of Gilma could also make it susceptible to upwelling cooler ocean waters underneath it. However, at the same time, vertical wind shear as diagnosed by the GFS-SHIPS is expected to remain quite low, under 10 kt for at least the next 48-60 h. Some of the regional-hurricane models also suggest that Gilma may take on some annular characteristics, with limited outer bands as the eyewall remains intact, and current satellite imagery suggests that appearance may already be taking shape. Since these storms are known to weaken slower than expected by the cooler sea-surface temperatures underneath, the NHC intensity forecast only shows very gradual weakening over the next couple of days, which is higher than the majority of the intensity guidance, aside from the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, westerly shear is forecast to increase as SSTs remain in the 25-26 C range, and a faster rate of weakening is anticipated by the end of the forecast period, more in line with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 17.0N 125.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 17.4N 126.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 17.7N 127.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 18.1N 129.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 18.7N 132.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 18.9N 134.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 19.5N 138.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 20.0N 143.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 222034 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 33(37) 31(68) 5(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 57(62) 12(74) 1(75) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 12(38) X(38) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) 1(17) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 15(42) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 222034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 ...MAJOR HURRICANE GILMA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 125.0W ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1980 MI...3185 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 125.0 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change is strength is expected before the hurricane begins a slow weakening trend into this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin

...MAJOR HURRICANE GILMA MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 22 the center of Gilma was located near 17.0, -125.0 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 222034 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.4N 126.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 127.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 18.1N 129.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.5N 130.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.7N 132.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 134.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 20.0N 143.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN