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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop from parts of the central Plains into parts of the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley today and tonight. Large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the northern Rockies is forecast to intensify as it moves south and east over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Accompanying the trough, a zone of enhanced mid-level flow will overspread the northern and central High Plains, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Saturday. At the surface, a mature cyclone over the Dakotas will slowly fill through the day as it moves east along the international border. A cold front will trail the cyclone to the southwest, intersecting a secondary low over central KS. Rich low-level moisture and QG ascent from the advancing upper-level wave will support scattered severe thunderstorms over several areas of central CONUS near the front this afternoon and evening. ...Mid MO Valley and Midwest... Early in the period, widespread convection is expected to be ongoing across parts of the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes associated with overnight mid-level warm advection. This should result in a broad area of remnant cloud cover and delayed diurnal heating across parts of northern IA, IL, MN and WI. However, rich low-level moisture ahead of the approaching cold front may support at least modest destabilization through the day in the wake of the earlier storms. While it is uncertain if sufficient destabilization can support organized storms, 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear would allow for clusters or transient supercells capable of damaging gusts, if more robust convection evolves. To the southwest, substantial heating is likely over the southern and central Plains near the secondary surface low in KS. A warm front will lift north into eastern KS and western MO, with rich boundary-layer moisture (70s surface dewpoints) supporting MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg by late this afternoon. Though forcing for ascent will not be overly strong, robust heating and surface convergence near the low will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across north-central KS, and along the cold front in eastern NE by mid to late afternoon. Veering wind profiles with height near the low will support semi-discrete supercells across the mid MO Valley. Backed surface winds, rich low-level moisture and plentiful low-level vorticity/CAPE near the triple point may create a favored mesoscale corridor for a few tornadoes from northeast KS, into northwest MO, and southern IA/NE. While some hail is also possible, given the potential for rotating storms, thermodynamic profiles are not overly favorable, with only modest mid-level lapse rates and large water loading. The initial semi-discrete convection should gradually grow upscale into clusters or a small MCS, moving east/southeast across parts of the Mid MO Valley this evening. Damaging winds and a QLCS tornado will be possible. Storms should begin to weaken overnight as they encounter progressively more stable conditions across central/eastern MO and western IL. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... As the upper trough and surface low advance eastward across the northern Plains, the trailing cold front will weaken as it moves south through the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. Behind the front, weak upslope flow will develop with east/northeast surface winds through the early afternoon. Subtle ascent from the departing trough, along with diurnal heating of the moist post-frontal air mass, will support scattered thunderstorm development over northern/eastern CO, western SD and southeast WY. Moderate mid-level flow behind the trough will favor straight, but elongated hodographs favorable for organized clusters and supercells. Steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and forecast MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg will allow for isolated to widely scattered severe storms to evolve with a risk for damaging winds and hail across portions of the central High Plains. Significant hail of 2-2.5 inches and damaging gusts greater than 70 mph may also occur with the more organized storms. ..Lyons/Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PIR TO 35 SSW MBG TO 45 WSW ABR TO 30 WSW ABR. ..EDWARDS..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC017-049-059-065-069-075-085-107-117-119-280640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN POTTER STANLEY SULLY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC005-013-025-037-073-077-097-111-115-280640- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEADLE BROWN CLARK DAY JERAULD KINGSBURY MINER SANBORN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 280503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 1459 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 280346Z - 280515Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...At least a few severe gusts could occur in eastern SD, east of ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. An additional downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed pending favorable convective trends and high enough confidence in continued severe gusts. DISCUSSION...The southern portions of a mature MCS continue to rapidly progress eastward, with echo tops exceeding 50 kft at times. The southern portion of this MCS remains well organized, and continues to produce measured severe gusts (per recent surface observations). Though MLCINH continues to increase, 03Z mesoanalysis also shows 3000 J/kg MLCAPE immediately to the south of the ongoing MCS, which is likely supporting continued severe potential. Surface temperatures and MLCAPE do decrease with eastern extent into eastern SD, so it is unclear if/how much of the severe gust threat will extend past the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. As such, convective intensity and wind report trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance over the next few hours. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43899814 44249870 45399867 45779867 45909859 45899782 45779734 44819694 44239706 44029734 43899814 Read more

MD 1458 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0950 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...southern North Dakota into central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478... Valid 280250Z - 280445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478. Severe gusts are the main threat with an ongoing MCS, particularly over SD. DISCUSSION...A well-organized MCS continues to progress eastward across central portions of central ND into central SD. This MCS has a history of many severe gusts. However, the severe-gust frequency has recently been trending downward. This weakening trend coincides with nocturnal stabilization, where boundary-layer decoupling and increasing MLCINH has been noted via 02Z mesoanalysis. Still, 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE resides ahead of the southernmost portion of the MCS in central SD, where strong wind gusts (perhaps exceeding 60 mph) are still possible over the next few hours. Nonetheless, an overall weakening trend should continue into the evening hours. ..Squitieri.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 44210099 45460128 46760114 47160078 47009979 46549916 45509878 44419883 44089948 44010032 44210099 Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0479 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PHP TO 20 SW MBG TO 20 SE BIS TO 50 SSW DVL. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-047-051-280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH SDC017-021-041-045-049-059-065-069-075-085-089-107-117-119-129- 280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PHP TO 20 SW MBG TO 20 SE BIS TO 50 SSW DVL. ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC029-043-047-051-280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH SDC017-021-041-045-049-059-065-069-075-085-089-107-117-119-129- 280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 1456 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 475... FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0816 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...southern South Dakota southward to eastern Colorado/northwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475... Valid 280116Z - 280315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk has diminished within WW 475 from far southern South Dakota southward, as existing/very isolated storms have decayed over the past hour. Very limited severe risk persists, given potential for an additional storm or two, but no appreciable increase in coverage/risk is anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the few isolated/strong to severe cells which were ongoing from from western Nebraska to eastern Colorado/northwestern Kansas have diminished/dissipated over the past hour. A moist/unstable airmass persists east of the surface trough, but the boundary layer will continue to nocturnally cool, along with an associated increase in capping as depicted in the LBF 00Z RAOB. As such, any additional storm development in the next couple of hours should remain very isolated at best. ..Goss.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 38720273 39740228 41410260 42760240 43350240 43580103 43490028 41539988 39079962 38720273 Read more

Dade County Water & Sewer Authority requested that all necessary watering be done only between 4p.m.-8a.m. because the high water demand was not allowing enough time for the water tanks to refill. WTVC-TV ABC 9 Chattanooga (Tenn.), June 26, 2024

MD 1457 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0904 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Areas affected...southwestern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477... Valid 280204Z - 280300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 continues. SUMMARY...Severe weather risk remains maximized along the Oklahoma Panhandle/southwestern Kansas border, where damaging winds and hail remain possible. DISCUSSION...A small cluster of strong/severe storms continues moving eastward across the border area of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwestern Kansas. The storms are occurring within a moderately unstable environment, aided by a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet, and remain capable of producing hail in excess of severe levels, and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph. East of the watch, a more stable airmass is indicated, suggesting lesser severe risk with eastward extent. As such, downstream WW issuance may not be required, with primary risk likely to remain confined to areas with WW 477. ..Goss.. 06/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37579847 36649945 36540092 36990110 37999941 38269852 37579847 Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S Y22 TO 30 ESE Y22 TO 40 WSW BIS TO 30 NW BIS TO 45 SSW DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458 ..SQUITIERI..06/28/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-043-047-051-059-085-103-280340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON SIOUX WELLS SDC017-021-031-041-045-049-059-065-069-075-085-089-107-117-119- 129-280340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK HAND HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON POTTER STANLEY SULLY WALWORTH Read more

Corn in Iredell County was about half of the eight to nine feet tall that it ought to be. WSOC-TV ABC 9 Charlotte (N.C.), June 27, 2024