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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...AND FROM PARTS OF MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will proceed eastward from the upper Great Lakes into the Northeast, with a primary midlevel speed max sweeping across northern New England during the day. Behind this initial feature, a positive tile wave will push southeastward toward the Mid Atlantic, with most of the height falls occurring late. A surface low will likely be over Maine, with a trough/wind shift extending southwestward across eastern PA/NJ, VA/Delmarva, and into the Carolinas. Behind that trough, high pressure will be centered over the upper MS valley, with an east-west oriented boundary sinking south across the OH/TN Valleys, becoming stationary over the central Plains. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the central and northern High Plains, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This system will induce low pressure over southern MT into northern WY, with increasing ascent into that area late in the day. ...Much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic... The initial midlevel wave will move across NY and into northern New England, providing strong mid and high level wind fields/shear. Instability by midday over this area will gradually increase, with an environment favoring a few supercells developing across northern New England. Hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes will be possible near the surface low into Maine and where the air mass can recover sufficiently from the southwest. Farther south, scattered rain and storms will be ongoing along the length of the front early in the day across PA/WV/KY, with the primary ramp up in intensity occurring after 18Z and as the convection crosses int MD/VA. At that time, heating of the moist air mass will maximize instability with over 3000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Low-level wind fields will be rather weak, but modest westerlies and the progressive trough will keep storms moving, while the uncapped/warmed boundary layer favors widespread outflow winds, some damaging and locally severe. ...MT into ND... Relatively cool southeast winds will maintain stable conditions for much of the day, but by late afternoon/early evening the air mass near the surface low should become heat and uncapped, with storms forming from southwest into central MT initially. Ascent with the developing cold front and progressive upper wave should then aid further storm development during the evening across much of eastern MT, with storms into ND after 03Z. It is expected that sufficient cold pools will develop to maintain at least isolated strong to severe storms despite potential capping. Damaging gusts should be the primary severe mode. ..Jewell.. 06/29/2024 Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0482 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...17z Update... Minimal changes have been assessed to the current outlook. The Elevated area over portions of the eastern Great Basin has been expanded slightly to better cover the area of expected gusty winds and low RH. A few hours of gusty drainage winds are also possible across northern NV late this afternoon into the evening. However, the duration and coverage appear limited, as well as poorly overlapped with the lowest RH. Finally, an isolated thunderstorm is possible over parts of the northern Sierra this afternoon and evening, but storm coverage should be very isolated, given relatively modest moisture. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 29 16:45:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC...OZARKS VICINITY...AND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible today over parts of the Lower Great Lakes to upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Severe gusts may also be focused this afternoon and evening over the Ozarks vicinity, and the Raton Mesa and adjacent south-central High Plains. ...Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... A loosely organized band of convection is ongoing across parts of northern/central OH. As an upper trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada continues to move eastward through the period, current expectations are for convection to gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon across eastern OH into western PA. Recent visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloudiness across this area, which should hinder diurnal heating to some extent. Still, even modest heating of the rather moist low-level airmass should support at least weak instability by late this afternoon. Low-level and deep-layer shear appear sufficiently strong for a mix of multicells and supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern with any bowing cluster that can form and spread eastward across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon/evening. A couple of tornadoes may also occur with any sustained supercell or embedded QLCS circulations. See Mesoscale Discussion 1472 for more details on the short-term severe threat across OH into northern WV and western PA. There also appears to be some chance for additional convection to develop along the cold front across IL/IN this afternoon, perhaps associated with a remnant MCV over eastern MO. Substantial cloudiness is present across much of this region ahead of the front. But, any thunderstorms that can form may be capable of producing isolated hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Considered including this area in a Slight Risk, but confidence remains low in robust convection persisting with eastward extent into the OH Valley in the wake of earlier thunderstorm activity. ...Ozarks... A Slight Risk for damaging winds has been introduced for southern MO, northeast OK, and vicinity. Outflow from earlier convection, along with the slowly sagging cold front, should continue southward across these areas through late afternoon while also providing a focus for additional convection. Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop this afternoon in a narrow zone along/ahead of the front. While deep-layer shear should remain fairly modest, most 12Z guidance shows a greater concentration of robust convection developing across southern MO and vicinity late this afternoon and early evening. Loosely organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should spread generally east-southeastward through the evening. Isolated hail may also occur. ...Southern/Central High Plains... No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the southern/central High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon and evening in a weak post-frontal, upslope flow regime. Generally upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a narrow corridor of moderate instability by late afternoon. While mid-level flow is expected to remain weak, vertically veering wind profiles with height through mid/upper levels will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells and loosely organized clusters developing off the higher terrain of southern CO and northern NM. Occasional severe gusts appear possible with this activity as low-level lapse rates become steepened through diurnal heating. Some hail may also occur with the strongest cores. ...Michigan... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak instability, with MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by this afternoon. Strong speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. into Lower MI. But, overall coverage of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to remain rather limited across this area. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 06/29/2024 Read more