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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft. Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across much of northern CA and OR. At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and central High Plains. Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability. Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to northeast CO. ...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY... A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south. Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly drying will occur from the west. ...Northern and central High Plains... Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However, both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind profiles will generally favor disorganized storms. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to perhaps scattered severe storms with strong to severe gusts will be possible on Friday across parts of the parts of the Intermountain West and central Rockies, and over a narrow portion of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... On Friday, an upper high will remain centered over the southern Plains, while a large trough develops across the West. The primary midlevel wave will eject northeastward across the Great Basin and into ID and MT through 00Z, providing substantial cooling aloft. Lift with this feature will be focused from northern NV and UT into MT. Overnight, a secondary lobe of vorticity will swing east across much of northern CA and OR. At the surface, low pressure will deepen throughout the day ahead of a cold front which will extend from the Bitterroots southwestward into central NV by 21Z. Farther east, another trough will extend from the low in western MT southeastward into the northern and central High Plains. Midlevel moisture already in place across the Four Corners states will spread north across UT and into MT, which will combine with daytime heating and cooling aloft to result in marginal instability. Farther east, backed/southeasterly surface winds will maintain a plume of lower 60s F dewpoints as far west as far eastern MT to northeast CO. ...Great Basin into eastern ID/western WY... A large area of moderate southwest flow aloft will spread east across the region as the negative-tilt wave passes through NV/UT relatively early in the day. While this wave is timed more favorable farther north, instability may be less favorable than points south. Given the moisture in place, storms will form over a large area beginning mid/late morning over UT and expending into eastern ID/western WY by midday. This is not timed particularly well in terms of diurnal heating, but strengthening wind fields may aid gust potential. Additional diurnally driven cells are then expected along and east of the Wasatch, with marginal hail or wind threat as this activity spreads northeast. The western fringe of the Marginal Risk may be a bit generous over ID given uncertainties with how quickly drying will occur from the west. ...Northern and central High Plains... Daytime heating will lead to an unstable and uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with storms expected to form roughly near a Billings to Cheyenne line by late afternoon. Further development is possible into eastern/northeastern CO as well. Given that these areas are well east of the cyclonic flow regime aloft, any severe is expected to be relatively isolated or in sparse clusters. However, both localized damaging gusts or hail will be possible, though wind profiles will generally favor disorganized storms. ..Jewell.. 08/22/2024 Read more

Heat and drought have slowed grass growth in Vienna, leaving some lawns needing to be mowed every other week or even less frequently. WTAP (Parkersburg, W.V.), Aug 21, 2024

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest threat for severe gusts and hail appears to be over parts of the central High Plains this afternoon and evening. ...CO/KS/NE... Pockets of strong heating are present today over the High Plains of eastern CO and western KS/NE. Dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg in this area. Scattered high-based thunderstorms will form over the mountains and foothills later today and spread eastward, while isolated high-based storms form along the DCVZ/Palmer Ridge. As the storms move into the progressively more unstable air, a few severe storms are expected with a risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail. ...AZ/UT... A large upper low is centered off the Pacific Northwest coast today, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds stretching from CO across the Great Basin. Strong heating beneath this flow regime, coupled with sufficient low/mid level moisture, will promote the development of widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms from northwest AZ across western UT. A few of the cells may produce gusty/damaging winds and/or hail. ..Hart/Thornton.. 08/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA... ...17z Update... No changes were made to the currently valid outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over much of the Great Basin. A few thunderstorms are also possible over parts of eastern ID late this evening and overnight. ...Southern Pains... Gusty southerly flow is expected east of a lee trough over parts of the southern Plains this afternoon. 10-15 mph winds and RH below 25% over parts of west TX and eastern NM will overlap with areas of very dry fuels, supporting a locally elevated fire-weather risk. Confidence in areal coverage and duration remains too low to introduce an area. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 08/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the Interior West as an upper ridge persists across the central U.S. today. Strong mid-level flow from the upper trough, overspreading a deepening boundary layer over the Great Basin, will support dry and windy conditions through the afternoon. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, overlapping with 15-20 percent RH and fuels receptive to fire spread, will result in widespread Elevated conditions for several hours. However, portions of central Nevada may also experience higher sustained southerly surface winds (i.e. over 25 mph), warranting Critical highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221507
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
810 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Outlook Issued to update information on newly designated
Tropical Depression in the Central Pacific basin.

Active Systems:
Updated: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Hurricane Gilma, located more than one thousand miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. The Central
Pacific Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical
Depression One-C as of 5 AM HST. For information on this system,
please see products issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and is
currently producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms primarily west of its center. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph over the central portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
Information on Tropical Depression One-C can be found in
Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1 and WMO header WTPA31 PHFO and in
Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1 and WMO header WTPA21 PHFO. Products
will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 15:03:06 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 22 Aug 2024 15:29:04 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 221452 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 Gilma has continued to intensify with recent tightening of the eyewall diameter in the last few hours. Concurrently, solid cooling was noted in the surrounding inner ring of convection. This has resulted in an increase in intensity for the Dvorak intensity estimates with TAFB up to a T6.0/6.0 or 115 knots while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS has seen a variation of Raw-T values between 5.5 and 5.8. As such, the intensity has been adjusted slightly upward to 110 knots and brings intensity up to a strong Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. A northwest trend in center fixes continues to show slow forward speed at 290/6 knots, though small wobbles have been noted as the eye has been tightening and stronger convergence nodes are noted along the inner eye wall supporting a weak asymmetry to the eye itself. Given weak mid-tropospheric forcing, storm motion will continue to be slow and is expected to turn more westward Friday into Saturday as it nears the 26-27C isotherm. Proximity to the thermal gradient and convective activity will play a role in the longer term forecast as well. Depending on the strength, a faster forward speed was noted through the guidance suite. As such, the official forecast is a bit faster along track though the track remains fairly stable. Given that warmer oceans remain along the track of Gilma, some additional strengthening is expected with the low shear environment. As the cyclone reaches the 26-27C isotherm, gradual weakening is expected, but a slight northward adjustment will result in reduced warm, moist air to maintain its strength and slow weakening is expected after Friday morning. As the storm treads further west, cooler water is likely to increase weakening of the system through the weekend into early next week. As the system weakens and becomes shallower, forward speed will increase and perhaps further compound the weakening process a bit faster than prior forecast; however, the NHC intensity forecast remains on the higher end of the model guidance suite to better maintain continuity. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 16.9N 124.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.5N 126.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 17.8N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 18.1N 129.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 18.4N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 18.8N 137.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 19.1N 141.3W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Gallina

...GILMA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 5:00 AM HST Thu Aug 22 the center of Gilma was located near 16.9, -124.5 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 221451 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC THU AUG 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.5W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT.......115NE 110SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 124.5W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.1N 125.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 95SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 126.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.8N 128.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.1N 129.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.4N 133.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 137.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 141.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 124.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER GALLINA