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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will become established over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough and associated upper support overspreads the Interior West tomorrow (Sunday). Stronger flow aloft mixing down to the surface via boundary-layer mixing by afternoon peak heating will support dry and windy conditions that support wildfire spread. The best chance for Critical conditions will be over southeastern Nevada into western Utah, where 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH and at least modestly receptive fuels for several hours. Meanwhile, at least isolated thunderstorm development is expected ahead of a surface cold front accompanying the mid-level trough over northeast California into southwestern Idaho. Though a mix of wet and dry storms are possible, stronger mid-level flow aloft suggests these storms should move quickly eastward, with minimal precipitation accumulations. Given drying fuels in this region, lightning-induced wildfire ignitions are possible, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will develop over the central Rockies into the Plains states as a mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West today. A surface low will develop across the Great Basin, encouraging 15+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds amid 15 percent RH by afternoon peak heating across southern and eastern Nevada into western Utah, where Elevated highlights have been maintained. Meanwhile, some mid-level moisture will accompany the western mid-level trough and overspread the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, especially late in the period. Mainly showers are expected, but a couple of thunderstorms cannot be completely ruled out. Given questionable receptiveness of fuels and overall coverage of thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been withheld this outlook. Finally, a surface low may develop during the afternoon across Far West Texas, encouraging dry and breezy conditions near and just west of the Trans Pecos. The potential brevity and localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions over Far West Texas preclude Elevated highlights. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1470 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1470 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Areas affected...portions of western Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481... Valid 290455Z - 290630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481 continues. SUMMARY...A few additional damaging gusts may accompany ongoing storms over western MO for a few more hours. DISCUSSION...An MCS continues to progress east-southeast across western MO, where a couple of strong/damaging wind gusts have been reported in the past couple of hours. Buoyancy decreases with eastward extent ahead of the MCS, so questions remain regarding how long the severe wind threat may last. Nonetheless, strong 850 mb WAA and over 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE in the immediate vicinity of the MCS suggests that strong wind gusts should remain possible for at least a couple more hours. Meanwhile, the southwesterly LLJ overspreading the remnant cold pool behind the MCS leading line is also supporting back-building convection. If back-building cellular development is strong enough, some hail may be observed as well. ..Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38619503 38819382 38699319 38299260 37959255 37799299 37689351 37679407 37789472 37929517 38619503 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas... A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However, potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon through early evening. Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Montana and western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday, reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night. In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low, including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern Montana. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central North Dakota. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota including the Black Hills vicinity. ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe probabilities. ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection. Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas... A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However, potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon through early evening. Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Montana and western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday, reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night. In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low, including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern Montana. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central North Dakota. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota including the Black Hills vicinity. ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe probabilities. ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection. Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas... A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However, potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon through early evening. Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Montana and western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday, reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night. In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low, including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern Montana. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central North Dakota. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota including the Black Hills vicinity. ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe probabilities. ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection. Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas... A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However, potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon through early evening. Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Montana and western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday, reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night. In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low, including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern Montana. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central North Dakota. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota including the Black Hills vicinity. ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe probabilities. ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection. Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas... A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However, potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon through early evening. Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Montana and western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday, reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night. In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low, including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern Montana. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central North Dakota. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota including the Black Hills vicinity. ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe probabilities. ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection. Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas... A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However, potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon through early evening. Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Montana and western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday, reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night. In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low, including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern Montana. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central North Dakota. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota including the Black Hills vicinity. ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe probabilities. ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection. Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas... A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However, potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon through early evening. Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Montana and western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday, reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night. In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low, including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern Montana. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central North Dakota. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota including the Black Hills vicinity. ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe probabilities. ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection. Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas... A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However, potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon through early evening. Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least isolated wind damage. ...Montana and western Dakotas... A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday, reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night. In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low, including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas. At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by early evening into eastern Montana. Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across western and possibly central North Dakota. Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota including the Black Hills vicinity. ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains... In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts. ...Southeast Arizona... Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm, but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe probabilities. ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley... A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection. Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred. ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, and Lower Great Lakes, a couple tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible. This appears centered from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...OH Valley to the Northeast... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk tornado and wind probabilities as-is, with potential remaining evident for supercells embedded within clusters/line segments later today. These threats will be contingent on appreciable boundary-layer warming by peak heating, amid poor mid-level lapse rates and pervasive cloudiness/early-day convection within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This regime will result in very rich boundary-layer moisture spreading northeast across the entire OH Valley towards the Lower Great Lakes. Where pockets of greater insolation can occur, confined corridors of MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000 J/kg may develop. This should mostly be offset westward from greater SRH and low-level hodograph enlargement in NY/PA. But a corridor of overlap is possible, appearing centered on the eastern OH to central PA vicinity. Midday to early afternoon thunderstorm development should tend to be focused upstream of this, ahead of remnant MCVs/convective outflows. As they impinge on the warming boundary layer, potential will exist for sporadic strong to localized severe gusts, in addition to a couple tornadoes through early evening. ...Mid-MS Valley to northern OK... The trailing portion of a cold front, attendant to a shortwave trough and associated surface cyclone moving across the Upper Great Lakes to western QC vicinity, should provide a focus for isolated to widely scattered, late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The more probable convective development should occur along the northern OK portion of the front, owing to hot temperatures south of it, but will likely be within a weakly sheared environment. Richer boundary-layer moisture should be displaced east over the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, where deep-layer flow will be modestly stronger, but with less confidence on convective coverage. Overall scenario remains too nebulous to warrant higher than level 1-MRGL risk for wind. ...NM/CO High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the late afternoon and evening in a post-frontal upslope flow regime. Near 60 F surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy. While mid-level flow will be weak, vertically veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells developing off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Isolated strong to marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ...Northern MI... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg becoming common by midday to early afternoon. Pronounced mid to upper-level speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. to north Lower MI. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, and Lower Great Lakes, a couple tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible. This appears centered from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...OH Valley to the Northeast... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk tornado and wind probabilities as-is, with potential remaining evident for supercells embedded within clusters/line segments later today. These threats will be contingent on appreciable boundary-layer warming by peak heating, amid poor mid-level lapse rates and pervasive cloudiness/early-day convection within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This regime will result in very rich boundary-layer moisture spreading northeast across the entire OH Valley towards the Lower Great Lakes. Where pockets of greater insolation can occur, confined corridors of MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000 J/kg may develop. This should mostly be offset westward from greater SRH and low-level hodograph enlargement in NY/PA. But a corridor of overlap is possible, appearing centered on the eastern OH to central PA vicinity. Midday to early afternoon thunderstorm development should tend to be focused upstream of this, ahead of remnant MCVs/convective outflows. As they impinge on the warming boundary layer, potential will exist for sporadic strong to localized severe gusts, in addition to a couple tornadoes through early evening. ...Mid-MS Valley to northern OK... The trailing portion of a cold front, attendant to a shortwave trough and associated surface cyclone moving across the Upper Great Lakes to western QC vicinity, should provide a focus for isolated to widely scattered, late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The more probable convective development should occur along the northern OK portion of the front, owing to hot temperatures south of it, but will likely be within a weakly sheared environment. Richer boundary-layer moisture should be displaced east over the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, where deep-layer flow will be modestly stronger, but with less confidence on convective coverage. Overall scenario remains too nebulous to warrant higher than level 1-MRGL risk for wind. ...NM/CO High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the late afternoon and evening in a post-frontal upslope flow regime. Near 60 F surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy. While mid-level flow will be weak, vertically veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells developing off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Isolated strong to marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ...Northern MI... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg becoming common by midday to early afternoon. Pronounced mid to upper-level speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. to north Lower MI. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 Read more