Aggregator

WW 0645 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0645 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 20:36:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Aug 2024 21:28:45 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 232035 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 The satellite appearance of Gilma has decayed a little more since the previous advisory, although a cloud-filled eye is still present. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the 80-100 kt range, and the initial intensity is thus reduced to 90 kt in best agreement with the estimates from SAB and CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The cyclone remains in an environment of light shear with good anticyclonic outflow in all directions. The initial motion is now 275/8 kt. Gilma is slipping west of the axis of the deep-layer trough near the west coast of the United States, and a ridge is expected to build north of the cyclone during the next few days as the trough lifts out. The track guidance is in good agreement with a general westward or just north of westward motion through the forecast period. However, the guidance has again shifted a little southward, and the official forecast track will again be nudged southward. While the guidance is in good agreement on the direction, there is a notable spread in forward speed between the faster GFS and the slower ECMWF. The new NHC track lies near the consensus models, which split the difference in forward speed between these two models. Gilma's more westward motion is keeping it over warmer water for a little longer in the short term, so little change in strength is likely during the next 12 h. After that, the hurricane is expected to cross the 26C isotherm in about 36 h while moving into a drier and more stable airmass. This combination should lead to gradual weakening, and the rate of weakening should increase after 48-60 h when Gilma is expected to encounter westerly shear. The new intensity forecast follows the general trend of the intensity guidance with a faster rate of decay after 48 h than seen in the previous forecast. The forecast still calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 17.3N 127.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 17.5N 128.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 17.8N 130.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 18.1N 132.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.4N 134.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 18.7N 136.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 19.0N 138.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 19.8N 142.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 20.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 232034 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 3 19(22) 6(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 20N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 34(44) 19(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 14(31) 1(32) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 232034 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 23 2024 ...GILMA MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 127.7W ABOUT 1215 MI...1955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1800 MI...2895 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 127.7 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally westward motion and a faster forward speed are expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are now near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...GILMA MOVING WESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Aug 23 the center of Gilma was located near 17.3, -127.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 232034 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC FRI AUG 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.8N 130.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 18.1N 132.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.4N 134.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.7N 136.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 138.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.8N 142.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 127.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

No watches are valid as of Fri Aug 23 20:31:01 UTC 2024.

MD 1976 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ID...NORTHWEST WY...AND SOUTHWEST MT
Mesoscale Discussion 1976 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Areas affected...portions of central/eastern ID...northwest WY...and southwest MT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231831Z - 232030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through the afternoon across parts of central/eastern Idaho, northwest Wyoming, and southwest Montana. Locally strong gusts of 50-65 mph and hail to near 1 inch diameter may occur with strongest cells. DISCUSSION...Temperatures have quickly warmed into the mid 70s to mid 80s F across the region. Steep midlevel lapse rates/cool temperatures aloft are aiding in weak destabilization early this afternoon. As a result scattered convection has already developed over higher terrain. This activity should gradually increase/strengthen with time as additional destabilization occurs through the afternoon within a moderately sheared environment. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, but very steep low-level lapse rates and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles will support strong outflow winds. Regional VWP data and forecast soundings show elongated/straight hodographs. Coupled with cool midlevel temps and favorable vertical shear, this could support marginally severe hail from stronger/longer-lived updrafts. The somewhat moisture-starved environment should limit a greater/more widespread severe risk, and a watch is not currently expected for the MCD area. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI... LAT...LON 46091515 46141312 45981081 45820966 45330912 44920906 44340897 42950936 42511022 42011118 41961231 42161328 44581520 45571565 46091515 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Critical area over portions of western UT into southeast NV. Here, A tightening pressure gradient, and deep boundary-layer mixing into strong southwesterly flow aloft, will support 25-35 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and single-digit RH. While fuels appear modestly receptive over the area, the strong/gusty winds will still support the potential for large-fire spread. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east and allow a belt of enhanced mid-level flow to overspread parts of the eastern Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Afternoon heating/mixing will allow for sustained winds of 20-25 mph across the region while RH values fall into the upper teens and low 20s F. Fuels across portions far eastern Great Basin appear marginally receptive, and Elevated highlights have been maintained for this region, whereas fuels across parts of Wyoming appear more receptive where a Critical delineation has been added. In addition, potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has been introduced for the northern Great Basin in association with forcing from the advancing trough. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread amid PWAT values that are projected to remain below 0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more