Aggregator

MD 1982 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado...far southeast Wyoming...and western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232253Z - 240030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may consolidate into a small cluster, posing a some threat for a few damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance not anticipated at this time, though convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Convection initiating off the high terrain areas of north-central Colorado and southeastern Wyoming has drifted eastward amid marginally enhanced westerly mid-level flow. This activity is increasing in intensity as it encounters richer low-level moisture, characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s F within easterly upslope flow and greater instability (MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg) amid increasing surface temperatures. Storm intensity is expected to continue increasing in the short term as the activity moves into more favorable airmass. The combination of speed/directional shear is yielding effective bulk shear near 35 kt across the region, which may help to promote at least transient storm organization. Recent HRRR runs suggest a cluster may emerge over the next hour or so, which could pose at least a brief damaging wind/hail threat over northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle in the short term. However, increasing convective inhibition into the evening is expected limit the eastward extent of the severe threat, as supported by recent HRRR runs. For now, watch issuance is unlikely but convective trends will be monitored. ..Karstens/Gleason.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39560340 39600417 40760458 42660391 42780226 41510116 40310139 39500263 39560340 Read more

MD 1983 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 645... FOR WESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1983 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0604 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Areas affected...Western Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 645... Valid 232304Z - 240100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 645 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gust potential continues with convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough, extending from northeast OR-ID-extreme western WY, lifting north across the northern Rockies. Large-scale height falls are noted ahead of this feature as 500mb flow on the order of 50kt translates across the Bitter Roots into western MT. An arcing corridor of scattered robust convection has developed ahead of the short wave, and while this activity is developing within a weak-instability airmass, severe gusts have been common. Over the next few hours it appears the primary area of concern will extend across northern portions of ww645 where instability has yet to be overturned. ..Darrow.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 44641447 48961445 48961029 44651061 44641447 Read more

MD 1982 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1982 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of northeast Colorado...far southeast Wyoming...and western Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232253Z - 240030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms may consolidate into a small cluster, posing a some threat for a few damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance not anticipated at this time, though convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Convection initiating off the high terrain areas of north-central Colorado and southeastern Wyoming has drifted eastward amid marginally enhanced westerly mid-level flow. This activity is increasing in intensity as it encounters richer low-level moisture, characterized by surface dew point temperatures in the low to mid 60s F within easterly upslope flow and greater instability (MLCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg) amid increasing surface temperatures. Storm intensity is expected to continue increasing in the short term as the activity moves into more favorable airmass. The combination of speed/directional shear is yielding effective bulk shear near 35 kt across the region, which may help to promote at least transient storm organization. Recent HRRR runs suggest a cluster may emerge over the next hour or so, which could pose at least a brief damaging wind/hail threat over northeast Colorado and the Nebraska Panhandle in the short term. However, increasing convective inhibition into the evening is expected limit the eastward extent of the severe threat, as supported by recent HRRR runs. For now, watch issuance is unlikely but convective trends will be monitored. ..Karstens/Gleason.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39560340 39600417 40760458 42660391 42780226 41510116 40310139 39500263 39560340 Read more

MD 1981 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1981 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0539 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232239Z - 240045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated threat for wind/hail will be noted with convection this evening. Watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Mid-level heights are being suppressed a bit over central/eastern MT along the eastern influence of a short-wave trough that is ejecting north across the northern Rockies. While large-scale influence of this feature will likely remain focused across western MT, strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to steep 0-3km lapse rates as temperature are now well into the mid 90s. Convective temperature have been breached, and negligible CINH is supported by thickening boundary-layer cu field, and isolated thunderstorms between GGW-OLF. This clustering is occurring within a zone of favorable low-level confluence, and along an instability axis where MLCAPE values are in excess of 2000 J/kg. There is some concern a few robust updrafts will evolve across eastern MT over the next few hours as surface-6km bulk shear is more than adequate for sustaining organized updrafts; however, it's not entirely clear how many storms will evolve. Another concern is any storms that linger beyond sunset will eventually be aided by a strengthening LLJ. Will continue to monitor this region, but at this time a watch is not currently anticipated. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 49010432 46200421 46210675 48800743 49010432 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232329
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the west of an
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Upper-level
winds are forecast to decrease over the low during the next day or
two, and a tropical depression is expected to form this weekend or
early next week while moving toward the west or west-northwest at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

MD 1980 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KANSAS...FAR EASTERN COLORADO...THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1980 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0515 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Areas affected...Western Kansas...far Eastern Colorado...the OK/TX Panhandles and Northwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232215Z - 232345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts and severe hail possible with the strongest cells into the evening. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows an uptick in convective development across the region as peak heating has allowed surface temperatures to rise into the upper 90s and low 100s F, eclipsing convective temperatures. Southeasterly low-level flow has ushered in ample moisture, with surface dew point temperatures in the mid 60s F. This combination is yielding MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in areas downstream of northeastward-moving developing convection. Marginally enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow is resulting in upwards of 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear that increases with northward extent. The ongoing convective activity is expected to continue through the evening. Steep low-level lapse rates should promote a few damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells, along with some severe hail. However, convective inhibition increases with eastward extent. This along with a gradual loss of peak heating should limit storm organization and severe coverage, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Karstens/Gleason.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37850262 38460262 39060157 38740052 38059986 37289892 36619843 35889873 36140010 36860156 37850262 Read more

MD 1979 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH INTO FAR WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1979 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern Utah into far western Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232053Z - 232300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some capable of severe winds and large hail, will occur this afternoon. A watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Early cloud cover within the Colorado Plateau has kept temperatures in the mid/upper 70s F thus far. Even so, colder air aloft has promoted around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE in southeastern Utah. Convection has shown signs of deepening on MRMS CAPPI imagery. Some further intensification of this activity is possible as temperatures will still rise this afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow on the eastern flank of the upper low will foster 45-50 kts of effective shear and at least marginal supercell structures. Storms will be capable of severe wind gusts and possibly large hail. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC... LAT...LON 37461224 38391155 39331063 39590951 39220889 38200878 37400900 36991014 36741130 36771203 36981233 37461224 Read more

WW 0645 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/23/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC001-005-007-013-015-023-027-029-031-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-051-053-057-059-061-063-073-077-081-089-093-099-101- 232340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FERGUS FLATHEAD GALLATIN GLACIER GRANITE HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY LINCOLN MADISON MEAGHER MINERAL MISSOULA PONDERA POWELL RAVALLI SANDERS SILVER BOW TETON TOOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0645 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..08/23/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC001-005-007-013-015-023-027-029-031-035-039-041-043-045-047- 049-051-053-057-059-061-063-073-077-081-089-093-099-101- 232340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAVERHEAD BLAINE BROADWATER CASCADE CHOUTEAU DEER LODGE FERGUS FLATHEAD GALLATIN GLACIER GRANITE HILL JEFFERSON JUDITH BASIN LAKE LEWIS AND CLARK LIBERTY LINCOLN MADISON MEAGHER MINERAL MISSOULA PONDERA POWELL RAVALLI SANDERS SILVER BOW TETON TOOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 645 SEVERE TSTM MT 232055Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM MDT Fri Aug 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Montana * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and move north-northeastward across the region through early evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Cut Bank MT to 40 miles south of Dillon MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 20030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. Preceding the trough, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread a deep/dry boundary layer across WY -- favoring dry and breezy conditions. Given modestly receptive fuels, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Additionally, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, aided by ascent accompanying the trough, will develop across portions of the northern Rockies on Day 3/Sunday. While this will pose some risk for lightning-induced fire-starts, the threat appears too localized/marginal for Isolated Dry Thunderstorm probabilities at this time. Thereafter, surface high pressure will build across the West, in the wake of the aforementioned large-scale trough. This will temporarily reduce surface winds and fire-weather concerns across much of the West. On Day 5/Tuesday, a midlevel trough/low and related strong westerly flow will cross the Pacific Northwest. This will promote dry/breezy conditions across portions of the Northwest into the northern Rockies. However, considerable disagreement among the medium-range guidance regarding the strength of surface winds casts uncertainty on the overall threat -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. These dry/breezy conditions should spread eastward across the northern Rockies on Day 6/Wednesday, with similar uncertainty regarding the development of critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 08/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more