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WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE CXY TO 30 N EWR. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481 ..WEINMAN..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC019-041-300040- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HUNTERDON WARREN PAC011-017-029-045-077-091-095-101-300040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 484 SEVERE TSTM NJ PA 292055Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New Jersey Eastern Pennsylvania * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms moving eastward should pose some risk for severe/damaging winds late this afternoon into the evening, perhaps up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Allentown PA to 30 miles west southwest of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...WW 483... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1482 ..WEINMAN..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-043-300040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT WASHINGTON VAC043-069-171-187-840-300040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE FREDERICK SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE WINCHESTER WVC001-003-007-013-017-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-057-065- 071-077-083-085-087-091-093-097-101-105-300040- Read more

WW 483 SEVERE TSTM MD VA WV 292020Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 420 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Maryland Northern Virginia Northern and Central West Virginia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 420 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered damaging winds up to 55-70 mph may occur as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west of Elkins WV to 20 miles east of Martinsburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W LUK TO 10 NNE LUK TO 35 E DAY. ..WEINMAN..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-115-137-155-300040- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-135-161-187-191-201-300040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL CARROLL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON LEWIS MASON OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON OHC001-015-025-027-047-071-131-141-145-165-300040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 485 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH 292105Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Indiana Northern Kentucky Southwest Ohio * Effective this Saturday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A bowing line segment will continue to shift east/southeast through this evening. The main risk with this activity will be severe gusts with localized wind damage expected. The severe threat should wane with southward extent toward mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west of Dayton OH to 40 miles southeast of Cincinnati OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...WW 483...WW 484... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Leitman Read more

MD 1480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN IL AND IN
Mesoscale Discussion 1480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern IL and IN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292210Z - 292345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind/hail threat may develop and remain quasi-stationary across parts of Indiana and eastern Illinois. With an expected localized nature to the severe threat and low confidence in sustaining a longer-duration risk, severe thunderstorm watch issuance appears unlikely but trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a small bowing cluster over southeast IN, residual outflow to its west/north converging with a leading cold front have supported isolated thunderstorm development across parts of IN into east-central/southeast IL. Much of central IN is void of cu in the wake of this cluster, suggesting that storms that can be sustained to the west and north will struggle to spread east. Deep-layer shear is stronger across northern IN, with MLCAPE greater back into IL, which will aid in an isolated severe hail/wind threat. However, low-level convergence along this leading boundary should wane for a time before a reinforcing cold front, currently over northern IL, shifts southeast later this evening. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39308596 38908603 38568702 38568818 38778893 39358889 39738891 40488769 41318640 41638586 41768547 41608511 41258513 40838595 40258698 39928740 39308596 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292330
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual
development is possible during the next several days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 1479 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0444 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...portions of the Texas Panhandle into northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292144Z - 292315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is anticipated within the next few hours. The stronger storms may produce at least a few severe gusts, and an instance or two of large hail also cannot be ruled out. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to sag southward across the southern Plains, with agitated CU and hints at convective initiation noted across northern portions of the TX Panhandle into north-central OK. South of the front, the boundary layer has deepened, with surface temperatures exceeding 100 F. The 30-40 F surface temperature/dewpoint spreads suggest that any storms that form will be high-based, with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km. As such, despite moderate vertical wind shear ahead of the front, adequate buoyancy (i.e. 2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and the steep low-level lapse rates will foster severe gust potential with the strongest downbursts via evaporative cooling beneath the high cloud bases. A couple of the initial multicellular updrafts may also briefly produce large hail, especially if any storm can become sustained immediately behind the cold front, where effective bulk shear is exceeding 40 kts. It is unclear how widespread the severe gust threat will become given limited vertical wind shear ahead of the surface front. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for locally higher severe gust potential and subsequent need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA... LAT...LON 35440233 36160042 36249877 35969769 35619754 35309851 35180007 35030156 35000198 35110230 35440233 Read more

WW 0485 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE IND TO 30 NW LUK TO 20 NNW DAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1478 ..WEINMAN..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 485 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-047-115-137-155-292340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN FRANKLIN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND KYC015-023-037-041-077-081-117-135-161-187-191-201-292340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE BRACKEN CAMPBELL CARROLL GALLATIN GRANT KENTON LEWIS MASON OWEN PENDLETON ROBERTSON OHC001-015-017-025-027-047-057-061-071-113-131-135-141-145-165- 292340- Read more

MD 1478 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 485... FOR SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHWEST IN...FAR NORTHERN KY
Mesoscale Discussion 1478 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...southeast IN...southwest IN...far northern KY Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485... Valid 292130Z - 292300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 485 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind gusts from 55-70 mph will remain probable with a small bowing cluster moving east-southeast towards the central Ohio Valley. DISCUSSION...A small bowing cluster was ongoing between the I-70 and I-74 corridors in the eastern IN. The Indianapolis VWP in the wake of this cluster continues to sample a belt of 35-50 kt mid-level westerlies which will aid in sustaining convective organization as this cluster likely tracks east-southeastward over the next few hours. Incipient Cb development is also occurring farther south closer to the OH River in southeast IN. It is plausible this may merge into the cluster across the IN/OH/KY border area and yield an overall southeast shift to convective development. This should spread across the I-75/I-71 corridors in southwest OH to northern KY. The greatest threat for damaging winds should be focused near the apex of the small bow. ..Grams.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN... LAT...LON 39868516 39618397 39318301 38928274 38538297 38408316 38418350 38778488 38978533 39868516 Read more

MD 1477 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1477 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...northern/eastern Oklahoma...southeastern Kansas...western Missouri...northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292057Z - 292300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and isolated large hail possible through late afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...A southward drifting cold front extending from western Oklahoma northward into Kansas and Missouri will be the focus for thunderstorm development through the late afternoon and evening. Daytime heating has led to temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s and MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg across much of north-central Oklahoma into southern Kansas. In this region, clusters of towering cu can be observed. Consensus from CAM guidance suggests convective initiation occurring sometime between 21-00z along and near the cold front. Storm mode is expected to be cellular to small clusters, spreading east-southeastward through the evening. Deep layer shear is generally weak, with the best shear on the cool side of the boundary. This will support damaging wind as the main threat, though isolated hail will be possible. Trends will be monitored for watch potential late this afternoon/evening. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36209523 36109650 36179797 36319813 36589819 36979781 38109504 38249352 37809264 37329229 36659273 36209418 36209523 Read more

WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481 ..WEINMAN..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PHI... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 484 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC019-041-292340- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HUNTERDON WARREN PAC011-017-025-029-045-077-089-091-095-101-292340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CARBON CHESTER DELAWARE LEHIGH MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON PHILADELPHIA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...RLX...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC001-023-043-292340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY GARRETT WASHINGTON VAC043-069-171-187-840-292340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE FREDERICK SHENANDOAH WARREN VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE WINCHESTER WVC001-003-007-013-017-021-023-027-031-033-035-037-041-057-065- 071-077-083-085-087-091-093-097-101-105-292340- WV Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HGR TO 30 SE IPT. ..WEINMAN..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-041-043-071-075-099-107-133-292340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN LANCASTER LEBANON PERRY SCHUYLKILL YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HGR TO 30 SE IPT. ..WEINMAN..06/29/24 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC001-041-043-071-075-099-107-133-292340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CUMBERLAND DAUPHIN LANCASTER LEBANON PERRY SCHUYLKILL YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 482 TORNADO OH PA WV 291710Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Ohio Western and Central Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as they move generally eastward. A couple of tornadoes appear possible with any supercells that can be sustained. Otherwise, severe/damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 mph may occur with any clusters that can develop. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north of Zanesville OH to 50 miles east northeast of State College PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0487 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0487 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 487 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 292235Z - 300400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western into Northern Oklahoma Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 535 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop through the early evening and persist into the mid to late evening. The more intense thunderstorms will be capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph). Isolated large hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles west of Amarillo TX to 20 miles south southeast of Ponca City OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 482...WW 483...WW 484...WW 485...WW 486... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29015. ...Smith Read more