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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains area on Sunday, with more isolated severe potential southwestward into the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley vicinity. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper anticyclone will be centered over KS/OK and the Ozark Plateau, with the upper ridge axis oriented northward over the Upper MS Valley on Sunday. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Canadian Prairies. This will focus an area of modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow over the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, south/southeasterly flow will maintain a very moist airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s F expected from the eastern Dakotas into IA/MN and vicinity. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates will advect northeast, aiding in strong destabilization. However, warm midlevel temps will likely maintain at least weak MLCIN across the region through the afternoon and into the evening as stronger forcing for ascent largely remains north of the international border. As a result, convective coverage during the afternoon is a bit uncertain/conditional. By late afternoon/evening, a surface front is forecast to progress eastward across the Dakotas and into MN through the nighttime hours. This may provide sufficient forcing for isolated thunderstorm development. Given strong instability and sufficient vertical shear for organized updrafts, large hail (especially with initial cellular development) and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Four Corners into WY and adjacent High Plains... An upper trough will lift northeast across the Great Basin on Sunday. Modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region between the eastern periphery of the trough and the western periphery of the upper ridge to the east. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest for most of the region, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong heating will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Sporadic downbursts may produce locally severe gusts with this activity. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Modest northwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the region on Sunday on the western periphery of a Northeast upper trough. Latest forecast guidance shows warming midlevel temps/minor height rises during the day. However, a moist airmass will be in place and weak to moderate destabilization is expected. Convective coverage may be fairly low given latest forecast guidance trends. However, any stronger cells that develop may produce locally strong gusts or small hail given favorable shear and elongated/straight forecast hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WYOMING... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEAST NEVADA... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest observations and high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid-level trough will progress through portions of the interior West throughout the day. A mid-level jet streak will accompany this trough along its southern/eastern periphery. Daytime heating/mixing will allow these winds to mix toward the surface. This process will result in southwesterly sustained surface winds of 25-35 mph and RH values into the teens/single digits F across portions of western Utah into southeast Nevada, amid marginally receptive fuels, supporting Critical fire-weather conditions. Similar wind/RH conditions supporting Critical fire-weather conditions will occur across portions of northern/central Wyoming, albeit with sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RH values into the teens and low 20s F, amid receptive fuels. Farther west, upper forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level trough will foster isolated dry thunderstorms over portions of northern Nevada and vicinity. Fuels in this region remain receptive to large-fire spread with PWAT values ranging from 0.5-0.75 inches. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...AND FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota, parts of the Ozarks, and also across western Oklahoma. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Have introduced severe hail/wind probabilities for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorm development beginning potentially as early as late afternoon across northeast Montana, but more likely this evening across the region. This development is possible along/behind a surface wave and eastward-moving front, where moderate buoyancy will coincide with strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Four Corners to Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid/late afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and hail near severe limits also possible over the High Plains. Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less), but enough cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with a well-mixed sub-cloud layer supportive of strong/locally severe wind gusts. ...Southern Missouri/northern Arkansas... A linear convective cluster will continue to progress southward today. Deep-layer/low-level shear will remain weak, with the cluster tending to remain elevated to the east of the main reservoir of surface-based buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates. While some strong gusts and/or sub-severe hail could occur, the overall severe potential should remain isolated and relatively marginal in nature. ...Western/northern Oklahoma.... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon through around sunset, with locally strong-severe microbursts possible. A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist under and near the mid/upper high, with an effective dryline to its west across northwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma. Enough moisture should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot, well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...AND FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota, parts of the Ozarks, and also across western Oklahoma. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Have introduced severe hail/wind probabilities for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorm development beginning potentially as early as late afternoon across northeast Montana, but more likely this evening across the region. This development is possible along/behind a surface wave and eastward-moving front, where moderate buoyancy will coincide with strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Four Corners to Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid/late afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and hail near severe limits also possible over the High Plains. Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less), but enough cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with a well-mixed sub-cloud layer supportive of strong/locally severe wind gusts. ...Southern Missouri/northern Arkansas... A linear convective cluster will continue to progress southward today. Deep-layer/low-level shear will remain weak, with the cluster tending to remain elevated to the east of the main reservoir of surface-based buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates. While some strong gusts and/or sub-severe hail could occur, the overall severe potential should remain isolated and relatively marginal in nature. ...Western/northern Oklahoma.... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon through around sunset, with locally strong-severe microbursts possible. A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist under and near the mid/upper high, with an effective dryline to its west across northwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma. Enough moisture should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot, well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...AND FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota, parts of the Ozarks, and also across western Oklahoma. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Have introduced severe hail/wind probabilities for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorm development beginning potentially as early as late afternoon across northeast Montana, but more likely this evening across the region. This development is possible along/behind a surface wave and eastward-moving front, where moderate buoyancy will coincide with strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Four Corners to Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid/late afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and hail near severe limits also possible over the High Plains. Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less), but enough cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with a well-mixed sub-cloud layer supportive of strong/locally severe wind gusts. ...Southern Missouri/northern Arkansas... A linear convective cluster will continue to progress southward today. Deep-layer/low-level shear will remain weak, with the cluster tending to remain elevated to the east of the main reservoir of surface-based buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates. While some strong gusts and/or sub-severe hail could occur, the overall severe potential should remain isolated and relatively marginal in nature. ...Western/northern Oklahoma.... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon through around sunset, with locally strong-severe microbursts possible. A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist under and near the mid/upper high, with an effective dryline to its west across northwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma. Enough moisture should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot, well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...AND FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota, parts of the Ozarks, and also across western Oklahoma. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Have introduced severe hail/wind probabilities for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorm development beginning potentially as early as late afternoon across northeast Montana, but more likely this evening across the region. This development is possible along/behind a surface wave and eastward-moving front, where moderate buoyancy will coincide with strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Four Corners to Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid/late afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and hail near severe limits also possible over the High Plains. Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less), but enough cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with a well-mixed sub-cloud layer supportive of strong/locally severe wind gusts. ...Southern Missouri/northern Arkansas... A linear convective cluster will continue to progress southward today. Deep-layer/low-level shear will remain weak, with the cluster tending to remain elevated to the east of the main reservoir of surface-based buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates. While some strong gusts and/or sub-severe hail could occur, the overall severe potential should remain isolated and relatively marginal in nature. ...Western/northern Oklahoma.... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon through around sunset, with locally strong-severe microbursts possible. A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist under and near the mid/upper high, with an effective dryline to its west across northwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma. Enough moisture should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot, well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...AND FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota, parts of the Ozarks, and also across western Oklahoma. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Have introduced severe hail/wind probabilities for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorm development beginning potentially as early as late afternoon across northeast Montana, but more likely this evening across the region. This development is possible along/behind a surface wave and eastward-moving front, where moderate buoyancy will coincide with strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Four Corners to Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid/late afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and hail near severe limits also possible over the High Plains. Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less), but enough cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with a well-mixed sub-cloud layer supportive of strong/locally severe wind gusts. ...Southern Missouri/northern Arkansas... A linear convective cluster will continue to progress southward today. Deep-layer/low-level shear will remain weak, with the cluster tending to remain elevated to the east of the main reservoir of surface-based buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates. While some strong gusts and/or sub-severe hail could occur, the overall severe potential should remain isolated and relatively marginal in nature. ...Western/northern Oklahoma.... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon through around sunset, with locally strong-severe microbursts possible. A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist under and near the mid/upper high, with an effective dryline to its west across northwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma. Enough moisture should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot, well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...AND FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota, parts of the Ozarks, and also across western Oklahoma. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Have introduced severe hail/wind probabilities for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorm development beginning potentially as early as late afternoon across northeast Montana, but more likely this evening across the region. This development is possible along/behind a surface wave and eastward-moving front, where moderate buoyancy will coincide with strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Four Corners to Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid/late afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and hail near severe limits also possible over the High Plains. Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less), but enough cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with a well-mixed sub-cloud layer supportive of strong/locally severe wind gusts. ...Southern Missouri/northern Arkansas... A linear convective cluster will continue to progress southward today. Deep-layer/low-level shear will remain weak, with the cluster tending to remain elevated to the east of the main reservoir of surface-based buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates. While some strong gusts and/or sub-severe hail could occur, the overall severe potential should remain isolated and relatively marginal in nature. ...Western/northern Oklahoma.... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon through around sunset, with locally strong-severe microbursts possible. A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist under and near the mid/upper high, with an effective dryline to its west across northwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma. Enough moisture should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot, well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...AND FOUR CORNERS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains, over northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota, parts of the Ozarks, and also across western Oklahoma. ...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota... Have introduced severe hail/wind probabilities for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorm development beginning potentially as early as late afternoon across northeast Montana, but more likely this evening across the region. This development is possible along/behind a surface wave and eastward-moving front, where moderate buoyancy will coincide with strong shear through the cloud-bearing layer. ...Four Corners to Central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid/late afternoon. Activity should move northward to northeastward over this corridor, with isolated severe gusts being the main concern, and hail near severe limits also possible over the High Plains. Effective shear will be modest (generally 30 kt or less), but enough cloud-layer shear for a few organized multicell storms, with a well-mixed sub-cloud layer supportive of strong/locally severe wind gusts. ...Southern Missouri/northern Arkansas... A linear convective cluster will continue to progress southward today. Deep-layer/low-level shear will remain weak, with the cluster tending to remain elevated to the east of the main reservoir of surface-based buoyancy and mid-level lapse rates. While some strong gusts and/or sub-severe hail could occur, the overall severe potential should remain isolated and relatively marginal in nature. ...Western/northern Oklahoma.... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible by late afternoon through around sunset, with locally strong-severe microbursts possible. A surface moist/buoyancy axis will persist under and near the mid/upper high, with an effective dryline to its west across northwest Texas to northwest Oklahoma. Enough moisture should be present to support a minimally capped, deep, hot, well-mixed boundary layer with around 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and DCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/24/2024 Read more