Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0406 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thursday Central Plains and Lower/Middle MO Valley... Guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a shortwave trough, and strong jet in its base, will overspread the north-central Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest Thursday. Ahead of this mid/upper-level trough, very favorable ingredients, including ample instability and rather strong deep-layer shear for the season, should set up across Missouri, southern Iowa, and southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas. The potential impacts of convection lingering from Wednesday night remain a key uncertainty regionally regarding the north-northeast extent of the more appreciable severe risk, but the aforementioned areas seemingly have the highest severe potential. ...Day 5/Friday Midwest... While modest predictability precludes a 15+ percent severe risk at this juncture, it seems probable that severe potential will be focused within a moist and unstable air mass near/ahead of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. This may be most focused across the Ohio Valley and other parts of the Midwest/Lake Erie vicinity, with damaging winds expected to be the most common severe hazard. ...Days 6-8 Saturday-Monday... Predictability diminishes into this time frame, although corridors of at least some severe storms can be expected daily, generally spanning the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley, and probably parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States on Day 6/Saturday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, potentially effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters seem probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through the evening. This scenario currently appears most probable across downstate portions of Illinois/Indiana into Ohio and northern Kentucky. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. At least isolated severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and northwest Texas. A more focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, would appear to be across western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, potentially effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters seem probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through the evening. This scenario currently appears most probable across downstate portions of Illinois/Indiana into Ohio and northern Kentucky. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. At least isolated severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and northwest Texas. A more focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, would appear to be across western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, potentially effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters seem probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through the evening. This scenario currently appears most probable across downstate portions of Illinois/Indiana into Ohio and northern Kentucky. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. At least isolated severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and northwest Texas. A more focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, would appear to be across western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, potentially effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters seem probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through the evening. This scenario currently appears most probable across downstate portions of Illinois/Indiana into Ohio and northern Kentucky. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. At least isolated severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and northwest Texas. A more focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, would appear to be across western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, potentially effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters seem probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through the evening. This scenario currently appears most probable across downstate portions of Illinois/Indiana into Ohio and northern Kentucky. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies. At least isolated severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and northwest Texas. A more focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, would appear to be across western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0493 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SW BHK TO 25 NE MLS TO 30 NNW SDY. REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 493 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01/07Z. ..KERR..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 493 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-025-079-083-087-109-010700- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON FALLON PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROSEBUD WIBAUX NDC007-033-053-010700- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BILLINGS GOLDEN VALLEY MCKENZIE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 493 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 010245Z - 010700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 493 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Montana Western North Dakota * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 845 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify and pose a risk for severe gusts (60-75 mph) and large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter). This thunderstorm activity will probably grow upscale into a linear cluster as it moves east-northeast across the Watch area. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Sidney MT to 35 miles south southwest of Miles City MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley to central Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Corn Belt/Upper Midwest and Central Plains... Further amplification will occur on Tuesday with the eastward-shifting mid/upper-level trough over the northern Plains, with preceding height falls and a strengthening of west-southwesterly winds aloft (50-65 kt at 500 mb) over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Tuesday morning across southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas, Iowa, and nearby parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. These storms and related outflow/cloud debris will probably delineate the north-northeastward extent of the most-favorable surface-based storm environment into peak heating. The strongest destabilization into Tuesday afternoon is currently expected across southern Iowa and far southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas to northern Missouri. Ample heating and moderate destabilization is also expected southwestward near the surface trough and along/just behind the southeastward-moving cold front across Kansas. Seasonally strong deep-layer winds will likely support potentially intense and sustained storms including supercells capable of all hazards, especially across parts of Iowa and far northern Missouri. Storms are likely to quickly grow upscale in the evening with continued severe-wind and some tornado potential, as storms progress east-southeastward across the region. ...Central/South-central High Plains... Isolated strong to severe high-based storms may occur as far southwest as the south-central High Plains, either within a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer across northwest Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, and/or in the post-frontal environment across east-central/southeast Colorado and western Kansas. ...Southeast/Gulf Coast... Some strong to locally severe storms could regionally occur within a moderately unstable environment along and south of the weakening southward-moving front. However, organized/sustained severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be limited by the proximity and influence of the upper ridge as well as weak deep-layer shear. ..Guyer.. 07/01/2024 Read more