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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011717
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week while it moves
west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low... 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...17z Update... Confidence has increased that northerly downslope flow over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley will likely exceed 15-20 mph from late tonight into D2/Tues. Extreme heat is expected beneath a rapidly building mid-level ridge that will allow for a strong low-level thermal trough to develop. This will favor very dry and breezy surface conditions, with diurnal RH likely falling below 15%. As area fuels continue to dry, elevated to near critical fire-weather conditions appear likely. The Elevated area was expanded into the northern Sacramento Valley in coordination with active Red Flag Warnings. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. See the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more