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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of northeast Montana, and for a few hours this evening from the central High Plains into the Four Corners region. ...Northeast MT vicinity... An isolated supercell or two remains possible through mid evening across extreme northeast MT into far northwest ND, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted in the 00Z GGW sounding). Later tonight, some guidance (most notably recent HRRR runs) suggests potential for an elevated storm cluster to develop and move across northeast MT and potentially extreme northwest ND. High-based convection currently developing across east-central MT lends some credence to this scenario, though uncertainty remains. Should this occur, MUCAPE and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms with hail and severe-gust potential, before the cluster moves into SK. A Slight Risk has been added for the conditional potential for hail and strong to severe gusts later tonight. ...Four Corners into the central High Plains... Multiple clusters of generally disorganized convection are ongoing early this evening from northern NM into parts of CO. Localized strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region for a few hours this evening, before convection generally weakens. Some intensification cannot be ruled out where stronger instability is in place from northeast CO into western NE, though MLCINH should become increasingly prohibitive with time. ...Southern KS into western OK...northwest TX...OK/TX Panhandles... Isolated high-based storms may continue to pose a short-term threat of localized downbursts from northwest TX/western OK into the TX/OK Panhandles and southern KS. However, storms should continue to be disorganized, and tend to diminish quickly with time this evening. ..Dean.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of northeast Montana, and for a few hours this evening from the central High Plains into the Four Corners region. ...Northeast MT vicinity... An isolated supercell or two remains possible through mid evening across extreme northeast MT into far northwest ND, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted in the 00Z GGW sounding). Later tonight, some guidance (most notably recent HRRR runs) suggests potential for an elevated storm cluster to develop and move across northeast MT and potentially extreme northwest ND. High-based convection currently developing across east-central MT lends some credence to this scenario, though uncertainty remains. Should this occur, MUCAPE and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms with hail and severe-gust potential, before the cluster moves into SK. A Slight Risk has been added for the conditional potential for hail and strong to severe gusts later tonight. ...Four Corners into the central High Plains... Multiple clusters of generally disorganized convection are ongoing early this evening from northern NM into parts of CO. Localized strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region for a few hours this evening, before convection generally weakens. Some intensification cannot be ruled out where stronger instability is in place from northeast CO into western NE, though MLCINH should become increasingly prohibitive with time. ...Southern KS into western OK...northwest TX...OK/TX Panhandles... Isolated high-based storms may continue to pose a short-term threat of localized downbursts from northwest TX/western OK into the TX/OK Panhandles and southern KS. However, storms should continue to be disorganized, and tend to diminish quickly with time this evening. ..Dean.. 08/25/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 00:02:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 00:02:51 GMT

Issued at 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 525 WTPZ42 KNHC 250001 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Special Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma has continued to exhibit a solid inner core on infrared imagery this afternoon. The eye has become more defined on visible satellite imagery and has started to clear out. Recent microwave imagery further confirmed that the structure of Gilma has improved with a vertically aligned center and a well-established eye wall. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to rise with objective estimates now between 100-110 kt. Thus, the initial intensity is set to 105 kt for this special advisory, and Gilma has regained major hurricane strength as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. The initial motion remains 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to gradually build to the north of Gilma during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone on a generally westward, or just north of westward, track through the forecast period. The NHC track has not changed with this special advisory forecast. The intensity forecast has had some significant changes compared to the previous advisory in the short term, given the initial intensity being increased, and the new NHC forecast calls for some additional strengthening in the near term. Beyond 12 h gradual then steady weakening is forecast to occur as Gilma moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a drier more stable airmass. The system is still forecast to become a remnant low in 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0000Z 17.7N 131.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0000 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 866 FOPZ12 KNHC 242359 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0000 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 0000Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 135W 34 2 22(24) 26(50) 2(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 135W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 36(52) 1(53) X(53) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 1(28) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 864 WTPZ32 KNHC 242359 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Special Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 200 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 ...GILMA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 131.4W ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1555 MI...2500 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 131.4 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A continued westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur through tonight. Weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through the remainder of the weekend. Steady weakening is anticipated early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GILMA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN... As of 2:00 PM HST Sat Aug 24 the center of Gilma was located near 17.7, -131.4 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 0000 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 647 WTPZ22 KNHC 242358 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0000 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 131.4W AT 25/0000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 131.4W AT 25/0000Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.8N 132.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.0N 133.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.2N 135.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.4N 137.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.6N 139.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 145.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 131.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 24 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 24 23:31:02 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242322
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about midway between the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the southwest
of an area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental winds
are forecast to become more conducive for development of the low
during the next day or two, and a tropical depression is expected to
form this weekend or early next week while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

MD 1985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242100Z - 242330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity may begin to initiate, with the evolution of an isolated supercell possible, by 4-5 PM MDT. This may pose a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps some potential for a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...Low-level convergence appears to be locally strengthening within weak surface troughing near the Wolf Point vicinity, where surface dew points remain in the lower/mid 60s F, as temperatures warm into the 90s F. Inhibition is gradually eroding with continuing insolation, and this may be aided by weak mid-level cooling through late afternoon, downstream of a mid-level perturbation progressing across and northeast of the Canadian Rockies. Initial attempts at deepening convective development appear slowly underway, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles already characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Beneath 35-60+ kt south-southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear is already strong and conditionally supportive of supercells. Although the strength of mid/upper forcing for ascent remains a bit unclear, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh and Rapid Refresh, in particular, suggest that at least isolated thunderstorms may initiate as early as 22-23Z. Once this occurs, intensification may be fairly rapid, with storms becoming capable of producing large hail, locally damaging gusts gusts, and perhaps some risk for a brief tornado, despite generally small/linear low-level hodographs. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GGW... LAT...LON 49550459 48250422 47870592 48790686 49660673 49550459 Read more

MD 1984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Areas affected...Northwest New Mexico into south-central Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242049Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe winds and small to marginally severe hail are possible in the strongest storms. A watch is not likely this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A plume of mid-level moisture is lifting northward into the Four Corners vicinity on water vapor imagery. Widely-scattered to scattered storms have developed in the higher terrain this afternoon. Most storms have remained rather shallow, but a cluster of stronger storms has formed in northwest New Mexico where greater heating has occurred. With a belt of stronger mid-level winds between the Northwestern upper trough and the central U.S. upper ridge, effective shear of 35-40 kts will allow a few stronger multicells to develop. These storms could produce strong severe wind gusts as well as small to marginally severe hail. Overall forcing for ascent will remain weak as will buoyancy. The severe threat should remain isolated and marginal. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...FGZ... LAT...LON 34330840 35370993 37220833 38350699 38780582 38240447 35760545 34500661 34330840 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z On Day 3/Monday, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow -- preceding a midlevel shortwave trough crossing the northern Rockies -- will overspread the northern/central Rockies. Over southern/central Wyoming, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will contribute to dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. While elevated conditions are possible, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low for probabilities. Thereafter, a deep mid/upper-level low will track east-southeastward from British Columbia into portions of the Northwest on Day 4/Tuesday. A related belt of strong midlevel west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting dry/windy downslope conditions in the Columbia Basin. Elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible, given some antecedent drying of fuels across the area. As the trough continues east on Day 5/Wednesday, dry/breezy conditions will spread eastward into the northern Rockies, potentially yielding elevated fire-weather conditions. However, preceding rainfall over much of the region limits confidence in the overall fire-weather risk -- precluding probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 08/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more