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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024 Read more