Aggregator

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MHN TO 50 SE BIS. ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC031-075-020040- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHERRY GRANT SDC021-045-049-065-069-075-085-089-095-107-117-119-121-123-129- 020040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL EDMUNDS FAULK HUGHES HYDE JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON MELLETTE POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 494 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 011935Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of The Nebraska Panhandle into Northwest Nebraska Western and Central South Dakota * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initial supercell thunderstorms should pose a threat for large hail generally 1-2 inches in diameter this afternoon. As this activity spreads eastward later this afternoon and evening, it should grow upscale in more of a line/cluster, with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds up to around 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Mobridge SD to 70 miles southeast of Chadron NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

Stage 1 fire restrictions took effect for unincorporated parts of western Boulder County on July 1 due to the heightened fire risk and forecasted heat in coming days.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 012304
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form during the next few days while it
moves west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low... 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

MD 1506 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 494... FOR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...Northern High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494... Valid 012151Z - 012315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 494 continues. SUMMARY...Convection should continue increasing across the northern High Plains this evening. DISCUSSION...Mid-level short-wave trough is currently progressing across eastern MT/WY, per latest water-vapor imagery. Notable synoptic front has now surged across western ND, arcing through western SD into central WY. Scattered robust convection has evolved along this boundary and the strongest storms are now growing upscale as larger clusters begin to emerge. Over the next few hours there is increasing confidence that a corridor of significant convection will materialize from Bennett County SD to east of Mobridge, coincident with a pre-frontal axis of higher buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45249941 42910149 43370263 45770052 45249941 Read more

The Franklin County borough of Chambersburg adopted a burn ban on June 26 that will remain in effect until July 22. The burn ban was needed due to heat and lack of rain in the forecast. FOX43 (Harrisburg, Pa.), July 1, 2024

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E IML TO 25 NW BBW. ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 496 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC001-019-035-041-047-059-061-063-065-073-077-079-081-083-085- 087-093-099-111-121-125-129-137-143-145-163-169-175-181-185- 012340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BUFFALO CLAY CUSTER DAWSON FILLMORE FRANKLIN FRONTIER FURNAS GOSPER GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HARLAN HAYES HITCHCOCK HOWARD KEARNEY LINCOLN MERRICK NANCE NUCKOLLS PHELPS POLK RED WILLOW SHERMAN THAYER VALLEY WEBSTER YORK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 496 TORNADO NE 012055Z - 020300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should move east-northeastward along and near a warm front that will become draped across south-central Nebraska this afternoon and evening. A couple of tornadoes may occur with any sustained supercell, along with large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter. Severe/damaging winds may become an increasing concern if thunderstorms can grow into a small cluster later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Mccook NE to 30 miles east southeast of Grand Island NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 494...WW 495... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW MBG TO 30 NW BIS TO 25 SW MOT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 495 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC015-029-031-043-047-051-055-059-065-083-085-093-103-012340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURLEIGH EMMONS FOSTER KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MCLEAN MORTON OLIVER SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1505 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...far eastern Colorado into far western Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 012147Z - 012245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe gust threat may materialize this afternoon. An instance of severe hail also cannot be completely ruled out. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway along the KS/CO border, where surface temperatures have warmed to over 100 F south of a warm front. Surface dewpoints are only in the upper 50s to low 60s F, indicative of a deep, mixed boundary layer in place, with 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km. Vertical wind shear is not particularly strong (i.e. 20-30 kts of effective bulk shear), so multicell storms modes should be favored. Given the deep boundary layer and potential for evaporative cooling, at least a few severe gusts are possible with the stronger storms, and an instance of marginally severe hail cannot be completely ruled out. Overall coverage of severe is uncertain at this time. However, at least parts of eastern CO/western KS may need a WW issuance pending more favorable convective trends. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37200429 38620336 39750168 39980077 39849990 39419980 38650010 37850101 37240178 37020248 37040319 37200429 Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW CDR TO 35 SW PHP TO 40 N MBG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1506 ..WEINMAN..07/01/24 ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 494 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-031-045-069-075-123-157-161-165-012340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOX BUTTE CHERRY DAWES GARDEN GRANT MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-021-041-045-047-049-055-065-069-071-075-085-089-095-102- 107-117-119-121-123-129-012340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CAMPBELL DEWEY EDMUNDS FALL RIVER FAULK HAAKON HUGHES HYDE JACKSON JONES LYMAN MCPHERSON MELLETTE OGLALA LAKOTA POTTER STANLEY SULLY TODD TRIPP WALWORTH Read more

The Orange County Board of Supervisors unanimously approved a burn ban at a meeting on June 25. CBS 19 News (Charlottesville, Va.), June 26, 2024

MD 1504 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1504 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...southern Nebraska and northern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 012024Z - 012230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage to increase in coverage through the afternoon. All hazards will be possible including damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...A surface warm front is slowly lifting northward across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska this afternoon. The progression of this feature has lagged morning operational guidance, with widespread cloud cover and cooler temperatures continuing across much of central/northern Nebraska. Upstream of this region, a shortwave is tracking eastward along with an attendant southeastward sinking cold front. In the last hour, thunderstorms have developed near the dryline/warm front intersection near the NE/KS western border between these boundaries which is characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg. Deep layer shear around 40-50 kts is observed in surface objective analysis which will support discrete to semi-discrete supercell development ahead of the cold front, with potential for a tornado or two with cells near the lifting warm front where low-level vorticity can be maximized amid backed east to southeasterly low-level flow. With time, mode will likely shift to become more linear, posing an increasing threat for damaging wind, with potentially some significant 75+ mph, through the evening. A watch will be needed to cover this threat. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 41329844 40999729 40759731 40049788 39259849 39630090 39750178 40090195 41290208 41490155 41490084 41329844 Read more

Despite the dry weather and low flows on the Rivanna River, an outfitting business on the river was doing its best to stay open and was still offering some trips down the river. WVIR-TV NBC29 (Charlottesville, Va.), June 28, 2024

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more