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MD 1989 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 646... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1989 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Utah into southern Wyoming and western Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 646... Valid 252157Z - 252330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 646 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 646. Severe hail and wind remain the main threats with the stronger storms. DISCUSSION...Clusters of supercells and multicells have organized across eastern portions of the Great Basin this afternoon amid seasonally impressive mid-level flow and associated deep-layer shear (bulk effective shear values exceeding 60 kts in spots). Given over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE in place (with well over 100 J/kg in the 0-3 km layer alone), organized storm modes, including supercells, should persist through the afternoon. Thunderstorms, and an associated severe hail/wind threat, should continue to progress eastward across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 646 in tandem with the eastward-tracking 500 mb trough. ..Squitieri.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC... LAT...LON 37470834 37160959 37221024 37531045 38511002 39650958 40860923 41670840 42130768 42170684 41350651 39740709 38280781 37470834 Read more

WW 0646 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 646 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PGA TO 30 W GJT TO 50 WSW CAG TO 45 ESE RKS TO 40 S LND. ..SPC..08/25/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-081-083-085-103-107-113-252340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL UTC019-037-252340- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GRAND SAN JUAN WYC007-037-252340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARBON SWEETWATER Read more

MD 1988 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1988 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Areas affected...Far north-central Nebraska and south-central South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252015Z - 252245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Though isolated, a supercell or two could pose a risk for large hail and severe wind gusts this afternoon. A watch is possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus have begun to develop within a weak frontal low near Valentine/Ainsworth. This area and adjacent south-central South Dakota will likely be the initiation zone for thunderstorms later this afternoon. Large-scale ascent is quite weak within the upper ridge and the timing of initiation is not completely certain. Most short-term guidance would suggest developing between 21-22Z. Morning observed soundings from the region show very steep lapse-rates aloft. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft is supporting 35-45 kts of shear. Initial development would likely be supercellular with a risk for large hail (primarily 1-1.75 in.) and severe wind gusts (60-75 mph). There is a conditional threat for very large hail, but generally warm temperatures in the profile as well as modest flow at anvil level suggest that threat would be low. The tornado threat will be low on account of weak low-level winds and large temperature-dewpoint spreads at the surface; however, storms near the boundary could stretch low-level vorticity and produce a brief tornado. Storm coverage appears that it will remain isolated, although storms could be intense. A watch could be considered this afternoon as convective trends warrant. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 42619892 42419994 42600051 42850070 43330062 43970027 44759950 44849853 44659813 44119788 43259809 42619892 Read more

WW 0647 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0647 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z A robust midlevel trough/low will advance eastward across the Northwest on Day 3/Tuesday. A related belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow will cross the Cascades, promoting strong downslope winds into the Columbia Basin. These winds, coupled with downslope-induced warming/drying, will favor elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon and evening. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been maintained with this outlook, though if fuels trend drier than currently anticipated, a Critical area could eventually be needed. On Day 4/Wednesday, the midlevel low will continue eastward, with associated strong post-frontal surface winds overspreading the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. While this will favor some increase in fire-weather potential, preceding rainfall and a potentially limited overlap with low RH casts uncertainty on the overall risk -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. Breezy post-frontal winds will continue across the northern High Plains into Day 5/Thursday, with similar uncertainties to the day prior. Thereafter, an expansive large-scale ridge will build over the West, resulting in a warming/drying trend and a fairly weak surface pressure gradient until around Day 8/Sunday. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 20:44:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 21:35:18 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 20:44:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 21:29:17 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 252043 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 GOES-18 satellite images indicate that Gilma's eye continues to become more cloud-filled and less well-defined. Microwave images from earlier this morning showed a better-defined eye at that time. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-5.5/102 kt. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates have also decreased from 6 hours ago, and range from about 77 to 104 kt. The initial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of the data. A combination of dry environmental air and marginal SSTs are likely the reasons why Gilma has weakened some today. Gilma should continue to move over SSTs near or just above 26C for another 24 h before it reaches slightly cooler waters. Gilma is still located within an environment of low vertical wind shear but is forecast to move into 15 kt of westerly vertical wind shear by early Monday which is expected to cause the storm to weaken. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is very near the intensity consensus aids. The forecast shows steady weakening by about 15 kt per day. By day 4, Gilma should move into an area of moderate to strong west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, which should strip away any remaining convection. Therefore, the forecast calls for Gilma to become a remnant low by day 5. Gilma has been moving due west over the past 12 h, or 270/9 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge should continue to steer Gilma between west and west-northwest for the next several days. The NHC track forecast is nearly on top of the previous prediction and is close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids through 72 h. The NHC forecast is slightly south of those consensus aids beyond 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.0N 134.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 18.1N 135.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 139.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 19.0N 142.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.4N 144.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 20.0N 147.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 20.6N 152.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

WW 0646 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 646 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/25/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-081-083-085-103-107-113-252140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL UTC007-009-013-015-019-037-043-047-055-252140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARBON DAGGETT DUCHESNE EMERY GRAND SAN JUAN SUMMIT UINTAH WAYNE WYC007-023-037-041-252140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0646 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 646 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..08/25/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-081-083-085-103-107-113-252140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MOFFAT MONTEZUMA MONTROSE RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL UTC007-009-013-015-019-037-043-047-055-252140- UT . UTAH COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARBON DAGGETT DUCHESNE EMERY GRAND SAN JUAN SUMMIT UINTAH WAYNE WYC007-023-037-041-252140- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more