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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Ozarks and Ohio Valley, and portions of the northern and central Plains. ...Ozarks to the Lower Ohio Valley... A modest shortwave impulse is forecast to develop northeast across the Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity on Wednesday. The bulk of strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow will remain over the Great Lakes vicinity, somewhat displaced from richer boundary-layer moisture and instability further south across the Mid-MS/OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will sag south/southeast across the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, perhaps stalling from northern MO/IL into Lower MI. The effective front will be augmented by early day clouds and perhaps showers over northern MO into northern IL. To the south, rich boundary-layer moisture with dewpoints in the 70s F and stronger heating across southern MO/IL into southwest OH, will foster a corridor of moderate to strong instability amid 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Clusters/bands of strong to severe thunderstorms will mainly pose a risk for damaging wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...Northern/Central Plains Vicinity... Modest height falls and strengthening midlevel westerlies are expected ahead of a deepening upper trough over the northern Rockies. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen over the High Plains. The western fringes of the Midwest cold front will be draped west to east near the NE/SD border. To the south of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will support low to mid 60s F dewpoints across much of KS/far southern NE westward into eastern CO, as well as across the adjacent southern Plains. Lower dewpoints are expected across the northern High Plains in the post-frontal airmass. Strong heating and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to strong destabilization. Vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt will support initial supercell development near the surface trough from southwest SD/western NE southward into CO. This initial activity will pose a severe/damaging wind risk in additional to large to very large hail. Additionally, curved low-level hodographs and increasing SRH by late afternoon/early evening may support a few tornadoes near the surface trough. With time, consolidation of convection via outflow interactions and a modestly increasing low-level jet by early evening should result in more linear storm modes. Some potential exists for MCS development, shifting east across parts of far eastern CO into parts of southwest NE/northwest KS. If confidence increases in a bowing MCS developing, higher severe probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks. Convection will be more sparse with southward extent into NM and OK where large-scale ascent will be weaker and vertical shear overall more marginal. Nevertheless, a moist and unstable airmass will be present and any storms that develop could produce strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...17Z Update... The previous forecast remains valid and largely unchanged. An expansion of the Southern Plains Elevated area further southwest into Central TX was introduced in order to cover hot, dry, and windy conditions this afternoon and early evening that overlap with supportive fuels. Localized dry and breezy conditions may occur across Southwest OR. However, no Elevated highlight will be introduced at this time. See previous discussion for more information. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous damaging thunderstorm winds, a few tornadoes, and occasional large hail appear most likely this afternoon and early evening over parts of southern/central Iowa, northern Missouri, and northeastern Kansas. ...Iowa/Missouri into Northeast Kansas and Vicinity... Elevated thunderstorms with a marginal/isolated hail threat are ongoing late this morning across eastern NE and southern IA in a low-level warm advection regime. This activity is also being aided by modest large-scale ascent associated with a subtle mid-level vorticity maximum moving eastward over the central Plains. The primary upper cyclone and related surface low will remain over central Canada today, with a cold front extending southward over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and continuing southwestward into the central Plains. An effective warm front extends northeastward from a secondary surface low in north-central KS across northern MO into southern IA. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as it attempts to lift further northward into IA. The 12Z sounding from TOP showed a very moist boundary layer, with precipitable water values through the column greater than 2 inches and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates. Robust daytime heating of this airmass along/south of the front will likely aid the development of moderate to strong instability by mid afternoon, even though mid-level temperature remain somewhat warm. A belt of stronger (40-55 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow associated with the subtle central Plains shortwave trough will likely overspread the frontal zone across IA and northern MO in the same time frame. With sufficient veering/strengthening of the wind field with height through mid-levels, around 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear is expected to promote organized convection, including the potential for both supercells and a bowing cluster. Thunderstorms should intensify by early to mid afternoon near the front across southeast NE/northeast KS into southern/central IA and perhaps northern MO. If this initial development can remain at least semi-discrete for a few hours, then sufficient low-level shear near the warm front would support a threat for a few tornadoes. Isolated severe hail may also occur with any sustained supercell. Otherwise, upscale growth into an MCS by mid to late afternoon appears likely given the mainly linear/frontal forcing and mid-level flow aligned mostly parallel to the surface front. Scattered to numerous damaging winds generally ranging 60-70 mph should become the primary severe hazard by late afternoon and early evening across IA and northern MO, but embedded QLCS circulations will also be possible. Convection should tend to weaken later this evening as it approaches the MS River and encounters a less unstable airmass. ...Southern/Central Plains... Additional convection should develop along the front with southwestward extent into KS and the southern/central High Plains. Given a well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates with daytime heating, isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity. Modest low-level upslope flow in the post-frontal regime may encourage the development of isolated supercells across parts of southeast CO and vicinity. Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur with any intense convection that can persist, but confidence in a small bowing cluster developing from this activity this evening remains low. Other occasionally strong to severe convection may develop southeastward from eastern WY into western NE this afternoon and evening. Weaker instability across this region should keep the overall severe threat rather isolated. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/02/2024 Read more