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MD 1992 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 647... FOR NORTHEAST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1992 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Areas affected...Northeast SD Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 647... Valid 260350Z - 260515Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 647 continues. SUMMARY...A localized damaging-wind threat may spread into northeast South Dakota. DISCUSSION...Persistent convection has evolved into a small outflow-driven cluster moving across east-central SD, with some increase in storm intensity and inbound radar velocities from KABR recently noted. This cluster may continue to spread north-northeastward, within a corridor of deeper low-level moisture, stronger MLCAPE, and somewhat weaker MLCINH (as noted per recent RAP analyses). Localized severe gusts may accompany this cluster through late evening as it moves into northeast SD. Observational trends will be monitored regarding the need for local watch expansion, if this cluster remains organized to the edge of WW 647. ..Dean.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44569892 45489857 45839833 45869777 45829720 45489715 45079720 44569756 44309803 44359830 44569892 Read more

“Groundwater’s really low, wells are low, springs are running really slow to sometimes even drying out, completely. So it’s harder to get water, it’s harder to get the grass to grow, to feed animals if you have livestock. And we are seeing farms that are selling off cows just because they don’t have the resources to maintain them,” according to a Belmont County agricultural and natural resources educator. WTRF (Wheeling, W.V.), Aug 26, 2024

The wildfire danger has increased in the southern part of Arkansas with 16 counties in a high danger category as of Monday, Aug. 26. Three counties—Dallas, Ouachita and Sevier—have burn bans prohibiting outdoor burning. Arkadelphian.com (Ark.), Aug 26, 2024 Four counties in the southern half of Arkansas had burn bans in effect due to the moderate wildfire danger. The four counties were Sevier, Howard, Montgomery and Dallas. Arkadelphian.com (Ark.), Aug 16, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 02:44:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 03:34:56 GMT

WW 0647 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 647 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W YKN TO 25 N ANW TO 40 ENE PIR. ..DEAN..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 647 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-015-017-023-025-035-043-053-059-061-073-077-085-097- 111-115-260340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HAND HANSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LYMAN MINER SANBORN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0647 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 647 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W YKN TO 25 N ANW TO 40 ENE PIR. ..DEAN..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 647 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-015-017-023-025-035-043-053-059-061-073-077-085-097- 111-115-260340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX CLARK DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HAND HANSON JERAULD KINGSBURY LYMAN MINER SANBORN SPINK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 647 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 252215Z - 260500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 647 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central Nebraska Southeast and East-central South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 515 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should intensify this evening while posing a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter, along with severe/damaging winds up to 65-75 mph. This threat should continue through much of the evening as this activity spreads east-northeastward. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northeast of Huron SD to 30 miles east southeast of Ainsworth NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 646... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Gleason Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 02:42:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 03:29:02 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 293 WTPZ43 KNHC 260241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hector remains a sheared tropical storm this evening. Recent microwave imagery from AMSR2 and GMI showed the low-level circulation on the northern edge of the deep convection, with a rain band extending to the south. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0/45-kt and T2.5/35-kt, respectively. The initial intensity remains at 40 kt, representing a blend of these estimates. The storm is moving along the southern side of mid-level ridge at an estimated 275/10 kt. The ridge should be the dominant steering feature for the majority of the forecast period, and Hector should generally move westward to west-northwestward through the end of the week. There is a bit of along-track spread in the model guidance, with the European model suggesting a faster forward motion compare to the American global and regional models. The latest track forecast is slightly slower than the previous prediction and close to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. Environmental conditions should allow for gradual strengthening over the next couple of days. The deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to be light-to-moderate with sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. By mid-week, most global models show drier mid-level air wrapping around the circulation and increasing vertical wind shear. These conditions, and possibly the cold wake of Hurricane Gilma, should lead to steady weakening and most guidance shows Hector losing its deep convection by the end of forecast period. The NHC intensity prediction is similar to earlier advisory, but now shows Hector as a remnant low by day 5. The forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance envelope, closest to the regional model HWRF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.2N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.9N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.3N 128.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 17.6N 130.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.0N 135.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 18.1N 140.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 233 FOPZ13 KNHC 260241 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 8 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 961 FOPZ12 KNHC 260240 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X 4( 4) 40(44) 11(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 44(51) 3(54) X(54) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 603 WTPZ23 KNHC 260241 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.2W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.9N 126.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.3N 128.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.6N 130.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.0N 135.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 18.1N 140.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 17.6N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 123.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 602 WTPZ33 KNHC 260241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HECTOR HEADING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 123.2W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 123.2 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...HECTOR HEADING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Hector was located near 16.2, -123.2 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 331 WTPZ42 KNHC 260240 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Gilma is a compact hurricane with a small eye noted in both infrared satellite imagery and a recent 0039 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass. The microwave imagery showed that the convection associated with Gilma has eroded over the southern semicircle, likely due to an increase in shear and dry air intrusion. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt, which is a blend of the latest objective and subjective intensity estimates. It should be noted that the range of the satellite intensity estimates is atypically large and is around 75 kt on the low side to around 100 kt at the upper end. Westerly shear over Gilma is forecast to increase to moderate levels during the next 24 hours, and this along with nearby dry mid-level air and slightly lower SSTs are expected to cause gradual weakening during the next couple of days. Around 72 hours a more substantial increase in vertical wind shear is anticipated and this should result in a faster rate of weakening. The global models suggest the system is likely to struggle to produce organized deep convection by day 4, and Gilma is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone around that time. Gilma has been moving just north of due west (275/8 kt) during the past 12 hours. A mid-level ridge to the north of Gilma should continue to steer the storm on a westward to west-northwestward heading throughout much of this week. The track guidance is in good agreement during the next 48-72 hours, but there is greater spread in Gilma's forward speed at days 4 and 5. This is related to how long Gilma remains vertically coherent. The models that weaken the cyclone more quickly favor a faster forward speed later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is a little faster at 96 and 120 h to be closer to the latest consensus aids. Otherwise, the new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.1N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.2N 136.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 18.4N 138.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 18.6N 139.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.9N 141.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 19.6N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 20.3N 149.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 31/0000Z 21.1N 153.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 911 WTPZ22 KNHC 260239 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..165NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.2N 136.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.4N 138.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.6N 139.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 141.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 149.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.1N 153.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 135.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 910 WTPZ32 KNHC 260239 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 135.1W ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 135.1 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, Gilma is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the central Pacific basin. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...GILMA EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE IT NEARS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 5:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.1, -135.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

WW 0646 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 646 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 4BL TO 55 NNE GJT TO 15 SSW CAG. ..SPC..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-083-085-103-107-113-260240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MONTEZUMA MONTROSE RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0646 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 646 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S 4BL TO 55 NNE GJT TO 15 SSW CAG. ..SPC..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...GJT...SLC...CYS...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 646 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC029-033-045-077-083-085-103-107-113-260240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DELTA DOLORES GARFIELD MESA MONTEZUMA MONTROSE RIO BLANCO ROUTT SAN MIGUEL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more