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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1994 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WY
Mesoscale Discussion 1994 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0958 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of central WY Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261458Z - 261630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may sporadically produce large hail to near 1.25 inch diameter and strong gusts to 65 mph into early afternoon across portions of central Wyoming. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms have developed this morning within strong ascent associated with an upper shortwave trough now ejecting east/northeast across western WY. The 12z RAOB from RIW showed very steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft amid increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper level flow. This vertical wind profile will maintain elongated/straight hodographs as the system continues to progress east/northeast into early afternoon. This environment will remain favorable for marginally severe hail over the next few hours. As stronger heating occurs with eastward extent, steepening low-level lapse rates and only modest boundary layer moisture may foster isolated strong gusts as well. Given limited coverage and overall marginal nature of the severe risk over the next few hours, a watch is not expected. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 42800862 43360840 43940779 44260736 44500660 44530627 44270561 43710536 43010589 42500653 42420735 42450818 42800862 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:00:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:29:14 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 261459 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Gilma still has a well-defined eye, seen on GOES-18 infrared and proxy-vis satellite imagery. The latest subjective intensity estimates are T-4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T-5.0/90 kt from SAB. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS such as the ADT and DPRINT are in the 80 to 85 kt range. However, during the last couple of hours, the eye has warmed and the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, so the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, in best agreement with the SAB Dvorak intensity estimate. Gilma is likely currently experiencing 10 to 15 kt of westerly wind shear as it continues moving near and parallel to the 26C SST isotherm. Fluctuations in intensity appear possible for the next 12 h. Beyond 12 to 18 h, the westerly shear is forecast to increase to the 15 to 20 kt range, and the SSTs are forecast to decrease slightly along the path beyond 36 h. These factors, along with the relatively dry, stable environmental air mass that Gilma will be traversing for the remainder of its lifetime, are expected to lead to continued steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous official forecast at hour 12, and then is similar to the previous official forecast. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt as it continues moving along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge. The models continue to be in good cross-track agreement that the west to west-northwestward motion will continue, although there are still some along-track differences in the guidance. The new NHC forecast lies very close to, but perhaps a touch to the south of the previous official forecast. This forecast is close to the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 18.2N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.3N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 141.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.5N 146.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.9N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 20.8N 152.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 21.8N 156.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 261454 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 1 26(27) 8(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 140W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 18(51) 1(52) X(52) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 261454 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...GILMA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 136.5W ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 136.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days with some increase in forward speed by late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although some weakening is forecast during the next few days, Gilma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...GILMA SLIGHTLY STRONGER... As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Gilma was located near 18.2, -136.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 261453 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 136.5W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 136.5W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 136.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 137.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 141.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 148.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 152.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.8N 156.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:39:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:35:20 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Microwave imagery continues to show evidence of northerly shear over the cyclone, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the south of the surface center. However, the overall cloud pattern appears to be slightly better organized than it was yesterday with some evidence of banding features over the eastern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity has been increased a bit, to 45 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB. Center fixes from geostationary and microwave imagery give a westward motion at around 270/9 kt. A weak low- to mid-level ridge is currently situated to the north of Hector, and the global models suggest that the ridge will build a little in a few days. The track guidance calls for a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slight increase in forward speed for the next 3-5 days. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the dynamical model consensus predictions. Although the vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong, Hector is expected to traverse marginal SSTs for the next few days while it moves over or near the oceanic wake of Hurricane Gilma. Also, the global models show the system encountering increasingly dry air at low- to mid-levels. The intensity guidance does not call for much additional strengthening and the official forecast is at the high end of the model predictions. With the expected less favorable environment, a weakening trend is likely to begin in a couple of days. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models show little or no deep convection associated with Hector by the end of the forecast period, so the official forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.2N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.1N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.4N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.6N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 17.7N 137.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.5N 142.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 261437 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH