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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...20z Update... The primary change with this outlook update was to expand the Marginal Risk southward across Virginia to account for ongoing convection that will track southward with potential risk for damaging wind. Instability will gradually weaken, however modest shear for organization may sustain this threat further south than previously forecast. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance for the Enhanced Risk across the north-central Plains to Upper Midwest. A few initial supercells have developed across Minnesota. See MCD#2000 for more information. Further west across WY/SD, severe threat along the primary cold front continues with potential for enhancement of the earlier MCS moving eastward out of Wyoming. See MCD#1999 for more details on evolution of this severe threat. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...20z Update... The primary change with this outlook update was to expand the Marginal Risk southward across Virginia to account for ongoing convection that will track southward with potential risk for damaging wind. Instability will gradually weaken, however modest shear for organization may sustain this threat further south than previously forecast. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance for the Enhanced Risk across the north-central Plains to Upper Midwest. A few initial supercells have developed across Minnesota. See MCD#2000 for more information. Further west across WY/SD, severe threat along the primary cold front continues with potential for enhancement of the earlier MCS moving eastward out of Wyoming. See MCD#1999 for more details on evolution of this severe threat. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...20z Update... The primary change with this outlook update was to expand the Marginal Risk southward across Virginia to account for ongoing convection that will track southward with potential risk for damaging wind. Instability will gradually weaken, however modest shear for organization may sustain this threat further south than previously forecast. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance for the Enhanced Risk across the north-central Plains to Upper Midwest. A few initial supercells have developed across Minnesota. See MCD#2000 for more information. Further west across WY/SD, severe threat along the primary cold front continues with potential for enhancement of the earlier MCS moving eastward out of Wyoming. See MCD#1999 for more details on evolution of this severe threat. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...20z Update... The primary change with this outlook update was to expand the Marginal Risk southward across Virginia to account for ongoing convection that will track southward with potential risk for damaging wind. Instability will gradually weaken, however modest shear for organization may sustain this threat further south than previously forecast. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance for the Enhanced Risk across the north-central Plains to Upper Midwest. A few initial supercells have developed across Minnesota. See MCD#2000 for more information. Further west across WY/SD, severe threat along the primary cold front continues with potential for enhancement of the earlier MCS moving eastward out of Wyoming. See MCD#1999 for more details on evolution of this severe threat. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...20z Update... The primary change with this outlook update was to expand the Marginal Risk southward across Virginia to account for ongoing convection that will track southward with potential risk for damaging wind. Instability will gradually weaken, however modest shear for organization may sustain this threat further south than previously forecast. The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance for the Enhanced Risk across the north-central Plains to Upper Midwest. A few initial supercells have developed across Minnesota. See MCD#2000 for more information. Further west across WY/SD, severe threat along the primary cold front continues with potential for enhancement of the earlier MCS moving eastward out of Wyoming. See MCD#1999 for more details on evolution of this severe threat. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. Read more

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0649 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE MIDWEST...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt upper trough will move east across southern Quebec Province and northern New England Wednesday, as a surface front moves south and extends from southern New England west into the mid-Mississippi Valley by Wednesday afternoon. Farther west, an upstream cold front, associated with a strong upper low along the international border/MT, will move east across the northern High Plains and western Dakotas. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... A very moist air mass is expected to be in place along and south of the front Wednesday afternoon, contributing to moderate/strong afternoon surface-based instability across the Midwest/OH Valley, and moderate instability farther east. Frontal position remains somewhat uncertain due, in part, to possible influence of early day storms, but the current risk areas remain well aligned with the greatest severe potential. Thunderstorms should develop or re-intensify during the afternoon along and south of the front and pose a risk for damaging gusts. The greater severe hail potential should exist across western portions of the risk areas where MLCAPE may exceed 3000 J/kg. Storms should evolve into east/southeast-moving clusters and continue into the evening. ...Northern Plains... Low-level moisture will increase ahead of the cold front during the day, with a corridor of 60s dew points beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates contributing to moderate instability. Strengthening low-level warm advection and ascent with the approaching upper low should result in a favorable environment for thunderstorms to develop near the front, and within the warm advection zone. Deep-layer shear will become supportive of severe storms capable of severe hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening and overnight hours. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more