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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large to very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight especially across parts of South Dakota, northern Nebraska, central/southern Minnesota, and into Wisconsin. ...North-central Plains to Upper Midwest... A relatively active severe-weather day is expected regionally, especially late this afternoon through tonight, with multiple rounds of severe storms possible potentially including eastern South Dakota and parts of central/southern Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. Strong to locally severe storms have already occurred this morning across interior Wyoming, in relatively close proximity to the northeastward-ejecting shortwave trough that will cross the northern High Plains toward the Dakotas through tonight. This convection is thought to be harbinger of a broader/increasing severe risk that should develop this afternoon from far northeast/east-central Wyoming into southwest South Dakota including the Black Hills/Pine Ridge vicinities. Some initial supercells capable of large hail will be possible, but these storms should organize into an MCS and expand/intensify as activity proceeds into greater moisture, instability and post-frontal low-level flow to the east. These storms could persist eastward this evening across southern South Dakota/far northern Nebraska, and all the way into southern Minnesota/far northern Iowa overnight through the predawn hours. Another area of potential severe thunderstorm development including supercells will be across eastern South Dakota east-northeastward into central Minnesota early as mid/late afternoon near the front, where a very moist (middle to upper 70s F surface dewpoints) and very unstable (4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) air mass will reside. This could somewhat relate to ongoing thunderstorms across central South Dakota at late morning, or perhaps more likely, ahead of it into central Minnesota. While potentially intense severe storms/supercells are plausible, some uncertainty exists regarding the diurnal extent of deep convective development given the likelihood of residual mid-level capping. Even if diurnally related development through peak heating is more limited, severe-weather potential should steadily increase from west-to-east across east/southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota/northern Iowa into western Wisconsin tonight via likely upstream MCS development. ...Northeast States/Mid-Atlantic... A belt of generally strengthening northerly flow aloft, along with modestly cool mid-level temperatures, will reside across the region on the western periphery on offshore-shifting upper-level trough. Coincident with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints, moderate destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected this afternoon across southern New England/eastern New York southwestward toward the Delmarva/coastal Mid-Atlantic. Multiple corridors of at least widely scattered south/southeastward-moving storms should evolve this afternoon, including southern New England/southeast New York as well as the Pennsylvania/Maryland/Virginia border vicinity. Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon through early/mid-evening. For additional short-term information, see Mesoscale Discussion 1995. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/26/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 26 16:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more