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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z The beginning of the forecast period on D3/Friday is characterized by overall amplification of ridging across the Pacific Northwest. An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast out of British Columbia into the Northwest US by D4/Saturday, moving into the Northern Great Basin by D5/Sunday. Guidance begins to diverge significantly heading into D6/Monday, but the overall consensus is that upper-level ridging will continue to build over the Western US. Conditions will be hot and dry beneath the ridge for a prolonged period, contributing to the continued curing of fuels. Medium-range guidance hints at the possibility of an upper-level shortwave trough approaching the Northern California coast on D5/D6, which could increase the potential for dry thunderstorm occurrence. However, there is significant disagreement in the timing, placement, and orientation of this upper-level feature. ...Pacific Northwest into the Northern Great Basin... As an upper-level trough descends from British Columbia into the Pacific Northwest on D4/Saturday, conditions beneath the jet streak are expected to be hot, dry, and windy over the Snake River Valley into portions of the Northern Great Basin. Elevated to near-critical conditions will be possible. However, the GFS and ECMWF forecasts differ in the intensity and orientation of the jet streak, resulting significant differences in the forecast surface winds between the two. Given the prolonged heat beneath the ridge, however, current thinking is to weight towards the drier, windier solution of the GFS. ...West Coast... Starting D5/Sunday into D6/Monday, GFS and ECMWF forecasts both hint at an upper-level shortwave trough interacting with the northern periphery of the ridge, though solutions differ greatly in the placement, orientation, and intensity of both the trough and ridge. While areas of Northern California into the Pacific Northwest will need monitoring for potential dry thunderstorm occurrence later in the period, forecast uncertainty is too great to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The City of Statesville implemented a voluntary lawn and landscape irrigation schedule to help manage water use in accordance with the City Code and the Water Shortage Response Plan. Iredell Free News (Statesville, N.C.), July 3, 2024

WW 0501 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 501 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..07/03/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 501 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-032140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK NEC005-009-013-017-029-031-033-041-049-063-069-075-085-091-101- 103-105-111-113-115-117-123-135-149-161-171-032140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOX BUTTE BROWN CHASE CHERRY CHEYENNE CUSTER DEUEL FRONTIER GARDEN GRANT HAYES HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA KIMBALL LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON MORRILL PERKINS ROCK SHERIDAN THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE OZARKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible through evening across parts of the northern/central High Plains, and from the Ozarks into the Ohio Valley. The most favorable corridor for isolated very large hail and significant severe wind gusts is centered on the central High Plains. ...20z Update... Severe probabilities remain unchanged from the previous outlook. Severe storms are possible into this evening from portions of the central High Plains to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 501 and MCD 1520 regarding short term discussions on severe potential in the central High Plains, MCD 1522 for the northern High Plains, and MCD 1521 for the Ozarks vicinity. ..Leitman.. 07/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will continue moving eastward across Ontario and the Great Lakes today, while an upper high remains centered over the Southeast. Farther west, a separate mid-level shortwave trough will advance east-southeastward from the northern Rockies to the northern/central High Plains through tonight. Multiple convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maxima will move generally east-northeastward across the central Plains into the mid MS and OH Valleys. At the surface, a cold front extends from the OH Valley southwestward to the southern Plains. Weak lee cyclogenesis is forecast to occur across the central High Plains through late this afternoon, and modest low-level moisture return is anticipated to the north of the front and east of a weak surface lee trough across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... Morning clouds and lingering convection across parts of the central Plains will hamper the development of instability today, especially with eastward extent into NE/KS. Even so, pockets of filtered daytime heating will occur across the northern/central High Plains along and east of the surface lee trough. With steepened mid-level lapse rates present over eastern CO/WY into western SD/NE, a narrow zone of moderate instability is forecast to be in place prior to robust convective initiation this afternoon. Initial development should occur along the length of the lee trough from parts of western NE into eastern CO. A somewhat separate area of convection may also develop from northeastern WY to the Black Hills, as large-scale ascent preceding the mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. Modest low-level east-southeasterly flow will quickly veer to westerly at mid/upper levels, with some strengthening and hodograph elongation. Corresponding strong deep-layer shear will support supercells initially, with attendant threat for large hail. Given relatively cool temperatures aloft and the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, isolated very large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter appears possible. A small zone with favorable overlap of moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient low-level shear remains apparent over parts of the NE Panhandle into northwest NE. This area may have a locally greater threat for a couple of tornadoes with any supercells that can persist late this afternoon into the early evening, assuming the boundary layer does not become too well mixed. Otherwise, upscale growth/clustering appears probable this evening as convective outflows aggregate into the central Plains. Severe/damaging winds should become the main threat as this occurs, with isolated significant gusts up to 75 mph possible if a more consolidated bow/MCS can develop. Confidence in this occurring still remains somewhat low, but the best chance for a more concentrated corridor of severe winds remains across parts of eastern CO into southwest NE and northwest KS this evening. ...Ozarks to the Ohio Valley... A rather moist low-level airmass remains present along/south of the front today, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s, and precipitable water values around 1.75-2.2 inches. A fair amount of convective cloud debris is present along/near the front across the mid MS Valley. This will tend to slow diurnal destabilization to some extent across this area. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to remain poor. Still, moderate to locally strong instability and steepened low-level lapse rates are forecast to develop through peak afternoon heating along/south of the front, which will extend from the Ozarks northeastward into parts of the OH Valley. Low-level winds are expected to remain generally weak, but a modest increase in southwesterly winds at mid levels should foster sufficient deep-layer shear to support some updraft organization. Mainly multicell clusters should develop this afternoon, focused along the front. Some of this activity may produce scattered damaging winds through early evening before eventually weakening. Morning guidance shows a greater concentration of thunderstorms with clustering potential across the Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. Read more