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MD 1993 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ND INTO NORTHEAST SD AND WESTERN MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1993 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Areas affected...Southeast ND into northeast SD and western MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260453Z - 260700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible overnight. DISCUSSION...Capping and a lack of large-scale ascent has thus far inhibited storm development along/ahead of a cold front now moving across eastern ND into northwest MN. While the opportunity for surface-based development along the front has diminished, modest ascent and midlevel moistening associated with a weak shortwave trough moving across ND could support elevated thunderstorm development later tonight. Strong MUCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for organized convection, and some threat for isolated hail and damaging wind could evolve if robust development can occur. Farther south, an outflow-driven storm cluster across northeast SD has shown signs of weakening, but may pose a short-term threat of gusty/damaging winds as it approaches west-central MN and extreme southeast ND. There will be some potential for elevated convection to occasionally flare up in the vicinity of this remnant cluster, though the severe potential from any redevelopment will likely tend to be relatively isolated. ..Dean/Gleason.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 49269438 48359411 46329494 44239586 44219727 44459739 44769753 45689784 46489729 46989695 47649651 48779594 49099561 49479508 49329452 49269438 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough traversing the northern Rockies is poised to eject into the Plains states while a second mid-level trough grazes the Pacific Northwest today. Surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain West, while a surface lee trough will become established to the east of the Cascades. The net result will be relatively quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the western CONUS, though locally dry and windy conditions could manifest in terrain-favoring areas. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging. Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period. At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly northward -- through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period. Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated capping. Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment. At this time, the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and hail. By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows. Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would accompany any of these redeveloping storms. Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern, extent of severe potential. Several models suggest storms developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected. Meanwhile, some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at least low-end severe potential. Additional adjustments to the MRGL risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging. Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period. At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly northward -- through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period. Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated capping. Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment. At this time, the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and hail. By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows. Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would accompany any of these redeveloping storms. Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern, extent of severe potential. Several models suggest storms developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected. Meanwhile, some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at least low-end severe potential. Additional adjustments to the MRGL risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging. Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period. At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly northward -- through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period. Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated capping. Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment. At this time, the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and hail. By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows. Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would accompany any of these redeveloping storms. Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern, extent of severe potential. Several models suggest storms developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected. Meanwhile, some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at least low-end severe potential. Additional adjustments to the MRGL risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging. Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period. At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly northward -- through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period. Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated capping. Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment. At this time, the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and hail. By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows. Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would accompany any of these redeveloping storms. Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern, extent of severe potential. Several models suggest storms developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected. Meanwhile, some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at least low-end severe potential. Additional adjustments to the MRGL risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging. Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period. At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly northward -- through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period. Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated capping. Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment. At this time, the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and hail. By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows. Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would accompany any of these redeveloping storms. Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern, extent of severe potential. Several models suggest storms developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected. Meanwhile, some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at least low-end severe potential. Additional adjustments to the MRGL risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Some severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Mid-MS/TN/OH Valleys will gradually weaken with time, as a short-wave trough shifting east-northeastward across the northern Plains gradually suppresses the ridging. Meanwhile upstream, a strong upper low over southern British Columbia early will advance eastward across southern portions of the Canadian Rockies and adjacent northwestern U.S. through the period. At the surface, an expansive cold front extending from Quebec southwestward across the Upper Great Lakes to the central High Plains will become increasingly west/east-oriented, as the northeastern portion of the front shifts southeastward into New England during the second half of the period, while the southwestern segment remains more quasi-stationary -- or even retreats slightly northward -- through the end of the period. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will advance eastward/southeastward across the northwestern U.S. ahead of the progressive upper low. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and some severe risk -- should be ongoing across portions of the Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period. Evolution of convection with time remains uncertain - in part due to remnant influence of upper ridging across the region and associated capping. Some models suggest that ongoing convection weakens through the day, with little afternoon redevelopment. At this time, the most likely scenario appears to be one or more clusters of storms will continue moving eastward across the risk area through the day, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and hail. By mid afternoon, redevelopment of storms may occur on southern fringes of earlier convection, near remnant outflows. Given likelihood for substantial destabilization, severe risk would accompany any of these redeveloping storms. Questions persist not only with degree of coverage of convection through afternoon and evening, but both the southern, and eastern, extent of severe potential. Several models suggest storms developing south and southwest of the SLGT risk area, where favorable instability but much weaker shear is expected. Meanwhile, some models continue to depict overnight convection crossing the Lower Great Lakes region, with ample instability/shear to support at least low-end severe potential. Additional adjustments to the MRGL risk area in later outlooks will likely be required, as the evolution of this scenario becomes a bit less uncertain. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern/central High Plains eastward to Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and swaths of severe, potentially damaging, gusts are expected, especially across South Dakota into Minnesota. A few severe storms producing strong gusts and hail are also expected across southern New England. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and approach the Upper MS Valley while pivoting around a broader anticyclone aloft today. Meanwhile, another mid-level trough over New England will gradually eject into the Atlantic through the day. Several rounds of scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development are likely ahead of the upper trough over the Plains/Upper MS Valley this afternoon and evening. Given adequate wind shear and strong to extreme buoyancy preceding the storms, several strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, with all severe hazards likely, especially over SD into central and southern MN. Strong mid-level flow and corresponding modest buoyancy pivoting around the upper trough in the Northeast will foster some severe potential as well. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight. Semi-discrete supercells are likely to develop north of a surface low centered along the SD/IA border, along a west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, overspread by 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE reaching at least 4000-5000 J/kg), especially over eastern SD toward the MN/IA border. Coinciding with this extreme buoyancy are modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with at least 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, initial supercell structures will be capable of all severe hazards, including hurricane-force gusts in forward-flank and rear-flank downdraft regions, and 2+ inch diameter hail. As storm cold pools merge, a bow echo MCS is likely across eastern SD that will track into central/southern MN into the Upper MS Valley. This bow echo is expected to produce a corridor of severe gusts, some of which may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, either with initial semi-discrete supercells, or with line-end or leading-line mesovortices embedded in the bow echo. Rapidly merging thunderstorm clusters across western into central SD are poised to track near where the initial supercells/bow echo should occur. By the time these storms reach this zone, they should have already grown upscale into an MCS (perhaps even a bow echo) accompanied by severe gusts (and a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out with these storms as well). A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been expanded over much of central SD to western WI to account for multiple, organized severe wind swaths. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Orographic lift and strong deep-layer ascent immediately preceding the ejecting mid-level trough will support convective initiation over the central and northern High Plains. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will rapidly progress toward the northern Plains (behind earlier rounds of storms), amid a dry and deep boundary layer characterized by steep low-level lapse rates, and overspread by 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Several multicells and supercells are expected by mid to late afternoon, with severe gusts and perhaps large hail accompanying the stronger storms. Clusters of storms may move eastward from WY and northeastward from eastern CO/western KS, possibly merging in the process. Should this occur, then one or more MCSs may develop, possibly accompanied by more focused corridors of severe-gust potential, especially over western into central SD by evening. ...Portions of New England into the Mid Atlantic... A 500 mb impulse/speed max will pivot around the backside of the mid-level trough and overspread portions of the Hudson Valley today, encouraging convective initiation in two zones. First, scattered multicells and perhaps transient supercells should initiate over New England and track southeast toward Cape Cod and Long Island through the afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow will contribute to straight/elongated hodographs and accompanying 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Strong gusts and large hail will accompany the stronger storms. The best chance for any severe wind/hail will be over southern New England, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap the stronger vertical shear to support stronger, longer-lived updrafts. Secondly, a cluster of multicellular/supercellular storms may develop ahead of the 500 mb speed max over the central Appalachians and track southeast toward the Atlantic Coast. Given modest low-level lapse rates and hodograph elongation, strong wind gusts may accompany these storms as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern/central High Plains eastward to Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and swaths of severe, potentially damaging, gusts are expected, especially across South Dakota into Minnesota. A few severe storms producing strong gusts and hail are also expected across southern New England. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and approach the Upper MS Valley while pivoting around a broader anticyclone aloft today. Meanwhile, another mid-level trough over New England will gradually eject into the Atlantic through the day. Several rounds of scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development are likely ahead of the upper trough over the Plains/Upper MS Valley this afternoon and evening. Given adequate wind shear and strong to extreme buoyancy preceding the storms, several strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, with all severe hazards likely, especially over SD into central and southern MN. Strong mid-level flow and corresponding modest buoyancy pivoting around the upper trough in the Northeast will foster some severe potential as well. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight. Semi-discrete supercells are likely to develop north of a surface low centered along the SD/IA border, along a west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, overspread by 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE reaching at least 4000-5000 J/kg), especially over eastern SD toward the MN/IA border. Coinciding with this extreme buoyancy are modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with at least 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, initial supercell structures will be capable of all severe hazards, including hurricane-force gusts in forward-flank and rear-flank downdraft regions, and 2+ inch diameter hail. As storm cold pools merge, a bow echo MCS is likely across eastern SD that will track into central/southern MN into the Upper MS Valley. This bow echo is expected to produce a corridor of severe gusts, some of which may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, either with initial semi-discrete supercells, or with line-end or leading-line mesovortices embedded in the bow echo. Rapidly merging thunderstorm clusters across western into central SD are poised to track near where the initial supercells/bow echo should occur. By the time these storms reach this zone, they should have already grown upscale into an MCS (perhaps even a bow echo) accompanied by severe gusts (and a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out with these storms as well). A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been expanded over much of central SD to western WI to account for multiple, organized severe wind swaths. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Orographic lift and strong deep-layer ascent immediately preceding the ejecting mid-level trough will support convective initiation over the central and northern High Plains. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will rapidly progress toward the northern Plains (behind earlier rounds of storms), amid a dry and deep boundary layer characterized by steep low-level lapse rates, and overspread by 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Several multicells and supercells are expected by mid to late afternoon, with severe gusts and perhaps large hail accompanying the stronger storms. Clusters of storms may move eastward from WY and northeastward from eastern CO/western KS, possibly merging in the process. Should this occur, then one or more MCSs may develop, possibly accompanied by more focused corridors of severe-gust potential, especially over western into central SD by evening. ...Portions of New England into the Mid Atlantic... A 500 mb impulse/speed max will pivot around the backside of the mid-level trough and overspread portions of the Hudson Valley today, encouraging convective initiation in two zones. First, scattered multicells and perhaps transient supercells should initiate over New England and track southeast toward Cape Cod and Long Island through the afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow will contribute to straight/elongated hodographs and accompanying 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Strong gusts and large hail will accompany the stronger storms. The best chance for any severe wind/hail will be over southern New England, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap the stronger vertical shear to support stronger, longer-lived updrafts. Secondly, a cluster of multicellular/supercellular storms may develop ahead of the 500 mb speed max over the central Appalachians and track southeast toward the Atlantic Coast. Given modest low-level lapse rates and hodograph elongation, strong wind gusts may accompany these storms as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern/central High Plains eastward to Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and swaths of severe, potentially damaging, gusts are expected, especially across South Dakota into Minnesota. A few severe storms producing strong gusts and hail are also expected across southern New England. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and approach the Upper MS Valley while pivoting around a broader anticyclone aloft today. Meanwhile, another mid-level trough over New England will gradually eject into the Atlantic through the day. Several rounds of scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development are likely ahead of the upper trough over the Plains/Upper MS Valley this afternoon and evening. Given adequate wind shear and strong to extreme buoyancy preceding the storms, several strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, with all severe hazards likely, especially over SD into central and southern MN. Strong mid-level flow and corresponding modest buoyancy pivoting around the upper trough in the Northeast will foster some severe potential as well. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight. Semi-discrete supercells are likely to develop north of a surface low centered along the SD/IA border, along a west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, overspread by 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE reaching at least 4000-5000 J/kg), especially over eastern SD toward the MN/IA border. Coinciding with this extreme buoyancy are modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with at least 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, initial supercell structures will be capable of all severe hazards, including hurricane-force gusts in forward-flank and rear-flank downdraft regions, and 2+ inch diameter hail. As storm cold pools merge, a bow echo MCS is likely across eastern SD that will track into central/southern MN into the Upper MS Valley. This bow echo is expected to produce a corridor of severe gusts, some of which may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, either with initial semi-discrete supercells, or with line-end or leading-line mesovortices embedded in the bow echo. Rapidly merging thunderstorm clusters across western into central SD are poised to track near where the initial supercells/bow echo should occur. By the time these storms reach this zone, they should have already grown upscale into an MCS (perhaps even a bow echo) accompanied by severe gusts (and a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out with these storms as well). A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been expanded over much of central SD to western WI to account for multiple, organized severe wind swaths. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Orographic lift and strong deep-layer ascent immediately preceding the ejecting mid-level trough will support convective initiation over the central and northern High Plains. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will rapidly progress toward the northern Plains (behind earlier rounds of storms), amid a dry and deep boundary layer characterized by steep low-level lapse rates, and overspread by 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Several multicells and supercells are expected by mid to late afternoon, with severe gusts and perhaps large hail accompanying the stronger storms. Clusters of storms may move eastward from WY and northeastward from eastern CO/western KS, possibly merging in the process. Should this occur, then one or more MCSs may develop, possibly accompanied by more focused corridors of severe-gust potential, especially over western into central SD by evening. ...Portions of New England into the Mid Atlantic... A 500 mb impulse/speed max will pivot around the backside of the mid-level trough and overspread portions of the Hudson Valley today, encouraging convective initiation in two zones. First, scattered multicells and perhaps transient supercells should initiate over New England and track southeast toward Cape Cod and Long Island through the afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow will contribute to straight/elongated hodographs and accompanying 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Strong gusts and large hail will accompany the stronger storms. The best chance for any severe wind/hail will be over southern New England, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap the stronger vertical shear to support stronger, longer-lived updrafts. Secondly, a cluster of multicellular/supercellular storms may develop ahead of the 500 mb speed max over the central Appalachians and track southeast toward the Atlantic Coast. Given modest low-level lapse rates and hodograph elongation, strong wind gusts may accompany these storms as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern/central High Plains eastward to Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and swaths of severe, potentially damaging, gusts are expected, especially across South Dakota into Minnesota. A few severe storms producing strong gusts and hail are also expected across southern New England. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and approach the Upper MS Valley while pivoting around a broader anticyclone aloft today. Meanwhile, another mid-level trough over New England will gradually eject into the Atlantic through the day. Several rounds of scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development are likely ahead of the upper trough over the Plains/Upper MS Valley this afternoon and evening. Given adequate wind shear and strong to extreme buoyancy preceding the storms, several strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, with all severe hazards likely, especially over SD into central and southern MN. Strong mid-level flow and corresponding modest buoyancy pivoting around the upper trough in the Northeast will foster some severe potential as well. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight. Semi-discrete supercells are likely to develop north of a surface low centered along the SD/IA border, along a west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, overspread by 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE reaching at least 4000-5000 J/kg), especially over eastern SD toward the MN/IA border. Coinciding with this extreme buoyancy are modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with at least 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, initial supercell structures will be capable of all severe hazards, including hurricane-force gusts in forward-flank and rear-flank downdraft regions, and 2+ inch diameter hail. As storm cold pools merge, a bow echo MCS is likely across eastern SD that will track into central/southern MN into the Upper MS Valley. This bow echo is expected to produce a corridor of severe gusts, some of which may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, either with initial semi-discrete supercells, or with line-end or leading-line mesovortices embedded in the bow echo. Rapidly merging thunderstorm clusters across western into central SD are poised to track near where the initial supercells/bow echo should occur. By the time these storms reach this zone, they should have already grown upscale into an MCS (perhaps even a bow echo) accompanied by severe gusts (and a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out with these storms as well). A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been expanded over much of central SD to western WI to account for multiple, organized severe wind swaths. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Orographic lift and strong deep-layer ascent immediately preceding the ejecting mid-level trough will support convective initiation over the central and northern High Plains. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will rapidly progress toward the northern Plains (behind earlier rounds of storms), amid a dry and deep boundary layer characterized by steep low-level lapse rates, and overspread by 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Several multicells and supercells are expected by mid to late afternoon, with severe gusts and perhaps large hail accompanying the stronger storms. Clusters of storms may move eastward from WY and northeastward from eastern CO/western KS, possibly merging in the process. Should this occur, then one or more MCSs may develop, possibly accompanied by more focused corridors of severe-gust potential, especially over western into central SD by evening. ...Portions of New England into the Mid Atlantic... A 500 mb impulse/speed max will pivot around the backside of the mid-level trough and overspread portions of the Hudson Valley today, encouraging convective initiation in two zones. First, scattered multicells and perhaps transient supercells should initiate over New England and track southeast toward Cape Cod and Long Island through the afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow will contribute to straight/elongated hodographs and accompanying 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Strong gusts and large hail will accompany the stronger storms. The best chance for any severe wind/hail will be over southern New England, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap the stronger vertical shear to support stronger, longer-lived updrafts. Secondly, a cluster of multicellular/supercellular storms may develop ahead of the 500 mb speed max over the central Appalachians and track southeast toward the Atlantic Coast. Given modest low-level lapse rates and hodograph elongation, strong wind gusts may accompany these storms as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern/central High Plains eastward to Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and swaths of severe, potentially damaging, gusts are expected, especially across South Dakota into Minnesota. A few severe storms producing strong gusts and hail are also expected across southern New England. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and approach the Upper MS Valley while pivoting around a broader anticyclone aloft today. Meanwhile, another mid-level trough over New England will gradually eject into the Atlantic through the day. Several rounds of scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development are likely ahead of the upper trough over the Plains/Upper MS Valley this afternoon and evening. Given adequate wind shear and strong to extreme buoyancy preceding the storms, several strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, with all severe hazards likely, especially over SD into central and southern MN. Strong mid-level flow and corresponding modest buoyancy pivoting around the upper trough in the Northeast will foster some severe potential as well. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight. Semi-discrete supercells are likely to develop north of a surface low centered along the SD/IA border, along a west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, overspread by 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE reaching at least 4000-5000 J/kg), especially over eastern SD toward the MN/IA border. Coinciding with this extreme buoyancy are modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with at least 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, initial supercell structures will be capable of all severe hazards, including hurricane-force gusts in forward-flank and rear-flank downdraft regions, and 2+ inch diameter hail. As storm cold pools merge, a bow echo MCS is likely across eastern SD that will track into central/southern MN into the Upper MS Valley. This bow echo is expected to produce a corridor of severe gusts, some of which may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, either with initial semi-discrete supercells, or with line-end or leading-line mesovortices embedded in the bow echo. Rapidly merging thunderstorm clusters across western into central SD are poised to track near where the initial supercells/bow echo should occur. By the time these storms reach this zone, they should have already grown upscale into an MCS (perhaps even a bow echo) accompanied by severe gusts (and a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out with these storms as well). A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been expanded over much of central SD to western WI to account for multiple, organized severe wind swaths. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Orographic lift and strong deep-layer ascent immediately preceding the ejecting mid-level trough will support convective initiation over the central and northern High Plains. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will rapidly progress toward the northern Plains (behind earlier rounds of storms), amid a dry and deep boundary layer characterized by steep low-level lapse rates, and overspread by 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Several multicells and supercells are expected by mid to late afternoon, with severe gusts and perhaps large hail accompanying the stronger storms. Clusters of storms may move eastward from WY and northeastward from eastern CO/western KS, possibly merging in the process. Should this occur, then one or more MCSs may develop, possibly accompanied by more focused corridors of severe-gust potential, especially over western into central SD by evening. ...Portions of New England into the Mid Atlantic... A 500 mb impulse/speed max will pivot around the backside of the mid-level trough and overspread portions of the Hudson Valley today, encouraging convective initiation in two zones. First, scattered multicells and perhaps transient supercells should initiate over New England and track southeast toward Cape Cod and Long Island through the afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow will contribute to straight/elongated hodographs and accompanying 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Strong gusts and large hail will accompany the stronger storms. The best chance for any severe wind/hail will be over southern New England, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap the stronger vertical shear to support stronger, longer-lived updrafts. Secondly, a cluster of multicellular/supercellular storms may develop ahead of the 500 mb speed max over the central Appalachians and track southeast toward the Atlantic Coast. Given modest low-level lapse rates and hodograph elongation, strong wind gusts may accompany these storms as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern/central High Plains eastward to Wisconsin this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and swaths of severe, potentially damaging, gusts are expected, especially across South Dakota into Minnesota. A few severe storms producing strong gusts and hail are also expected across southern New England. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains and approach the Upper MS Valley while pivoting around a broader anticyclone aloft today. Meanwhile, another mid-level trough over New England will gradually eject into the Atlantic through the day. Several rounds of scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorm development are likely ahead of the upper trough over the Plains/Upper MS Valley this afternoon and evening. Given adequate wind shear and strong to extreme buoyancy preceding the storms, several strong to severe thunderstorms are expected, with all severe hazards likely, especially over SD into central and southern MN. Strong mid-level flow and corresponding modest buoyancy pivoting around the upper trough in the Northeast will foster some severe potential as well. ...Northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains into the Upper MS Valley this afternoon into tonight. Semi-discrete supercells are likely to develop north of a surface low centered along the SD/IA border, along a west-to-east oriented baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 70s F, overspread by 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to extreme buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE reaching at least 4000-5000 J/kg), especially over eastern SD toward the MN/IA border. Coinciding with this extreme buoyancy are modestly curved and elongated hodographs, with at least 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, initial supercell structures will be capable of all severe hazards, including hurricane-force gusts in forward-flank and rear-flank downdraft regions, and 2+ inch diameter hail. As storm cold pools merge, a bow echo MCS is likely across eastern SD that will track into central/southern MN into the Upper MS Valley. This bow echo is expected to produce a corridor of severe gusts, some of which may exceed 75 mph. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out, either with initial semi-discrete supercells, or with line-end or leading-line mesovortices embedded in the bow echo. Rapidly merging thunderstorm clusters across western into central SD are poised to track near where the initial supercells/bow echo should occur. By the time these storms reach this zone, they should have already grown upscale into an MCS (perhaps even a bow echo) accompanied by severe gusts (and a 75+ mph gust cannot be ruled out with these storms as well). A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been expanded over much of central SD to western WI to account for multiple, organized severe wind swaths. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Orographic lift and strong deep-layer ascent immediately preceding the ejecting mid-level trough will support convective initiation over the central and northern High Plains. Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will rapidly progress toward the northern Plains (behind earlier rounds of storms), amid a dry and deep boundary layer characterized by steep low-level lapse rates, and overspread by 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear. Several multicells and supercells are expected by mid to late afternoon, with severe gusts and perhaps large hail accompanying the stronger storms. Clusters of storms may move eastward from WY and northeastward from eastern CO/western KS, possibly merging in the process. Should this occur, then one or more MCSs may develop, possibly accompanied by more focused corridors of severe-gust potential, especially over western into central SD by evening. ...Portions of New England into the Mid Atlantic... A 500 mb impulse/speed max will pivot around the backside of the mid-level trough and overspread portions of the Hudson Valley today, encouraging convective initiation in two zones. First, scattered multicells and perhaps transient supercells should initiate over New England and track southeast toward Cape Cod and Long Island through the afternoon. The stronger mid-level flow will contribute to straight/elongated hodographs and accompanying 30-40 kts of effective bulk (speed) shear. Strong gusts and large hail will accompany the stronger storms. The best chance for any severe wind/hail will be over southern New England, where over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE may overlap the stronger vertical shear to support stronger, longer-lived updrafts. Secondly, a cluster of multicellular/supercellular storms may develop ahead of the 500 mb speed max over the central Appalachians and track southeast toward the Atlantic Coast. Given modest low-level lapse rates and hodograph elongation, strong wind gusts may accompany these storms as well. ..Squitieri/Darrow.. 08/26/2024 Read more

166
ABPZ20 KNHC 260512
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands and on Tropical
Storm Hector, located well west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Hector are issued under WMO
header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi