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Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 252040 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 140W 34 X 3( 3) 35(38) 23(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 42(46) 6(52) X(52) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 252040 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 134.3W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 134.3W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.1N 135.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 139.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 142.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.4N 144.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 147.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.6N 152.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 134.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 252040 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 134.3W ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 134.3 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual to steady weakening is expected through the next several days although Gilma should remain a hurricane into Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

...GILMA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE PACIFIC... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.0, -134.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Two ASCAT overpasses recently sampled the tropical disturbance well to the southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. These scatterometer observations revealed that the system now has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum winds of around 40 kt. Although some higher wind speeds were noted, these vectors are believed to be rain-contaminated and a little inflated. Based on these data, the system is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hector. The low-level center is situated near the northern edge of a rather ragged-looking area of deep convection, and banding features are not well-defined at this time. The earlier center fixes from conventional satellite imagery had considerable spread, making the initial motion a rather uncertain 270/10 kt. A mid-level ridge should be maintained to the north of Hector for the next several days. Therefore, a west-northwestward or westward track is forecast during the upcoming 5-day period. The NHC track forecast is close to the simple model consensus. Over the next couple of days, Hector should be moving through an environment that is marginally conducive for strengthening. The tropical cyclone is likely to pass near or over the wake of Hurricane Gilma, which could limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS prediction, and shows only modest strengthening over the next few days followed by gradual weakening. It should be noted that some of the global models, such as the ECMWF, suggest that Hector could weaken faster than shown here during the latter part of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.2N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.9N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 17.3N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 17.7N 132.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 252034 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 4 19(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 252033 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.5W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.5W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 122.0W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.2N 123.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.9N 128.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.3N 130.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 132.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 122.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 252033 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPS WELL OUT AT SEA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 122.5W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 122.5 West. The storm is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward to westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...NEW EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPS WELL OUT AT SEA... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Hector was located near 15.9, -122.5 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Utah and Wyoming... Portions of the Marginal risk are were expanded westward across north-central UT and far western WY into extreme southeast ID to account for recent convective trends. While this region is on the fringe of the monsoonal moisture plume, cooler mid-level temperatures are compensatory and supporting convection with similar IR/cloud-top temperature presentations as convection further to the southeast. Thunderstorms should remain more isolated, but sporadic severe hail and/or wind gusts appear possible. ...Southeast MI/northeast OH... The Marginal risk area across southeast lower MI into OH has been removed. Large scale forcing for ascent should remain fairly weak as the mid-level impulse associated with early-morning convection exits the region. Low-level ascent along a surface confluence axis may support a storm or two across southeast lower MI, but confidence in the overall severe threat appears sufficiently low to warrant removal of risk probabilities. ..Moore.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. Read more