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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley to Upper Midwest... A seasonally strong mid/upper-level trough will cross the Upper Midwest on Thursday/Independence Day, with preceding height falls and a related strong belt of westerlies extending from the south-central Plains, eastward to the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. Likely influenced by early day precipitation/outflows and lingering cloud cover, it appears the strongest destabilization into Thursday afternoon will be across Missouri and far eastern/southern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma near a southeastward-moving front. Relatively strong westerlies aloft will support organized storm modes, potentially including some supercells, with storms otherwise likely to grow upscale and organize east-southeastward across the Ozarks during the evening. Farther north, although uncertainties exist related to early day precipitation and later-day destabilization, at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, as it extends from northern Missouri northward into Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin near a surface low. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley to Upper Midwest... A seasonally strong mid/upper-level trough will cross the Upper Midwest on Thursday/Independence Day, with preceding height falls and a related strong belt of westerlies extending from the south-central Plains, eastward to the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. Likely influenced by early day precipitation/outflows and lingering cloud cover, it appears the strongest destabilization into Thursday afternoon will be across Missouri and far eastern/southern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma near a southeastward-moving front. Relatively strong westerlies aloft will support organized storm modes, potentially including some supercells, with storms otherwise likely to grow upscale and organize east-southeastward across the Ozarks during the evening. Farther north, although uncertainties exist related to early day precipitation and later-day destabilization, at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, as it extends from northern Missouri northward into Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin near a surface low. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley to Upper Midwest... A seasonally strong mid/upper-level trough will cross the Upper Midwest on Thursday/Independence Day, with preceding height falls and a related strong belt of westerlies extending from the south-central Plains, eastward to the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. Likely influenced by early day precipitation/outflows and lingering cloud cover, it appears the strongest destabilization into Thursday afternoon will be across Missouri and far eastern/southern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma near a southeastward-moving front. Relatively strong westerlies aloft will support organized storm modes, potentially including some supercells, with storms otherwise likely to grow upscale and organize east-southeastward across the Ozarks during the evening. Farther north, although uncertainties exist related to early day precipitation and later-day destabilization, at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, as it extends from northern Missouri northward into Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin near a surface low. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley to Upper Midwest... A seasonally strong mid/upper-level trough will cross the Upper Midwest on Thursday/Independence Day, with preceding height falls and a related strong belt of westerlies extending from the south-central Plains, eastward to the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. Likely influenced by early day precipitation/outflows and lingering cloud cover, it appears the strongest destabilization into Thursday afternoon will be across Missouri and far eastern/southern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma near a southeastward-moving front. Relatively strong westerlies aloft will support organized storm modes, potentially including some supercells, with storms otherwise likely to grow upscale and organize east-southeastward across the Ozarks during the evening. Farther north, although uncertainties exist related to early day precipitation and later-day destabilization, at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, as it extends from northern Missouri northward into Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin near a surface low. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley to Upper Midwest... A seasonally strong mid/upper-level trough will cross the Upper Midwest on Thursday/Independence Day, with preceding height falls and a related strong belt of westerlies extending from the south-central Plains, eastward to the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. Likely influenced by early day precipitation/outflows and lingering cloud cover, it appears the strongest destabilization into Thursday afternoon will be across Missouri and far eastern/southern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma near a southeastward-moving front. Relatively strong westerlies aloft will support organized storm modes, potentially including some supercells, with storms otherwise likely to grow upscale and organize east-southeastward across the Ozarks during the evening. Farther north, although uncertainties exist related to early day precipitation and later-day destabilization, at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, as it extends from northern Missouri northward into Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin near a surface low. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging will prevail over much of the CONUS as a mid-level trough overspreads the northern Rockies tomorrow (Wednesday). During the afternoon, dry downslope flow will encourage dry and breezy conditions across much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Latest guidance consensus suggests that 15+ mph sustained westerly winds (locally higher in terrain-favoring areas) will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for several hours. With fuels beginning to become at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread on a widespread basis, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread much of the northwestern and north-central CONUS today, with an embedded mid-level impulse overspreading the northern Plains as a 500 mb jet max impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Coincident with low pressure development in the Central California Valley region, 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds may develop by afternoon in the Sacramento into Napa Valleys as RH drops to or just below 15 percent. Given receptive fuels in this region, Elevated highlights have been maintained. Locally dry and breezy conditions should also develop along the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney and Columbia basins in eastern Oregon and Washington (respectively). Fuels continue to cure across the Pacific Northwest, but are currently only modestly receptive at best on a widespread basis. Given the localized nature of the dry and breezy conditions, and given modest fuel receptiveness, no fire weather highlights have been introduced. Finally, surface low development over the central Plains will encourage dry southerly low-level flow over the southern High Plains as the boundary layer deepens and mixes by afternoon. Latest guidance consensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds overlapping 20-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. Given the stress of fuels under hot conditions over the past few days, fuels may be receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential, hence the maintenance of Elevated fire weather highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, particularly across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and central Plains. ...Midwest/Ozarks/Ohio Valley... Moderate to strong destabilization is expected within a moist air mass preceding an east/southeastward-moving cold front, which is likely to be effectively augmented by early day convection and residual cloud cover. As a shortwave trough transitions northeastward over the Great Lakes toward Ontario, at least weak height falls and moderately strong mid-level westerlies will generally influence areas as far south as the Ohio River and parts of the Ozark Plateau. Intensifying multicells/banded clusters are probable into Wednesday afternoon, with bouts of wind damage as the primary hazard through evening. ...High Plains/Central Plains... Height falls and a strengthening of cyclonically curved westerlies are expected ahead (east-southeast) of an amplifying mid/upper-level trough over the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. By mid/late-afternoon Wednesday, potentially severe storms capable of hail/strong wind gusts will be possible within a broad north/south corridor from the western Dakotas and southeast Montana/northeast Wyoming southward into eastern Colorado, northeast New Mexico, and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Some tornado risk may also exist near the north/south-oriented surface trough across the central High Plains including western Nebraska/eastern Colorado/northwest Kansas, where deep-layer/low-level shear will be stronger and more favorable for initial supercells. The most focused area of potentially severe storms, including possible evening-time MCS development, may evolve from western Nebraska/northeast Colorado into western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 Read more