Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0428 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Broad zonal flow over the CONUS will transition to strong western ridging through the first part of this week and continue through the extended forecast period. Gradually intensifying through mid week, the ridge will shunt stronger mid-level flow to the northeast over the eastern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Still, several weak mid-level perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the trough supporting occasional gusty winds at the surface across parts of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Otherwise, extreme heat is likely under the ridge over much of the West with near record temperatures and very dry conditions. Area fuels will undergo significant drying through the period, setting the stage for increased fire-weather concerns as the ridge begins to break down at the end of the forecast period. ...Northwest to the Great Basin... As the ridge quickly intensifies, northwesterly flow aloft should develop on the eastern periphery over parts of the interior Northwest and northern Great Basin. A modest upper-level trough passing over the northern Rockies will bring a weak cold front through the region on D2/Tuesday with dry and breezy winds likely behind it D3/Wednesday. Very warm afternoon temperatures behind the front should support several hours of 15-20% RH and wind gusts of 10-20 mph over parts of southern OR/ID and northern NV into western UT. A few hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions appear likely to develop, though there remains some uncertainty on the spatial and temporal coverage. Gusty winds are again possible later in the week into the weekend, as a second trough moves along the eastern part of the ridge D5/Friday and D7/Sunday. However, confidence in the overlap of hot, dry and windy conditions this weekend is much less certain, owing to the stronger ridging aloft. Still, some increase in fire-weather potential may occur toward the weekend as extreme heat and dry conditions continue to develop. ...CA... Beneath the ridge, extreme heat is likely through almost the entirety of the extended forecast period. The extreme heat will support the development of a low-level thermal trough across parts of northern and central CA. This may enhance northerly flow over parts of the Sacramento Valley D3/Wednesday. A period of offshore flow may also develop late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday as the ridge center shifts slightly farther west. While uncertain in regard to the magnitude of the offshore flow, very low humidity (sub 10%) could overlap with wind gusts of 25-30 mph over parts of the Transverse and Peninsular ranges. Otherwise, very dry and warm conditions may support locally elevated fire-weather potential. Highlights will be withheld due to the lack of greater synoptic winds, but fire-weather concerns should continue to generally increase through next week and into the weekend. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The North Carolina Forest Service discouraged outdoor burning and the lighting of personal fireworks. Instead, they recommended that people enjoy professional fireworks displays. WITN-TV NBC 7 Greenville (N.C.), June 28, 2024

Fayette County Water System sought and received a Level 1 Drought variance from the Georgia Environmental Protection Division due to high water demand for irrigation which has led to low water pressure in parts of the service area. Under a Level 1 Drought response, the county water system can initiate a public information campaign to help the public better understand drought, its impact on water supplies, and the importance of water conservation. Fayette County News (Fayetteville, Ga.), July 1, 2024

MD 1503 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN WY...NE PANHANDLE...WESTERN/CENTRAL SD...CENTRAL ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1503 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeastern WY...NE Panhandle...Western/Central SD...Central ND Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 011916Z - 012115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensity and coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours from the central Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle and far southeast Wyoming. Some severe thunderstorms capable of 1 to 1.75" hail and gusts from 60 to 70 mph are possible. DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows a broad shortwave trough progressing eastward across the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. The airmass downstream from the NE Panhandle into the central Dakotas continues to destabilize amid filtered daytime heating and ample low-level moisture. Recent surface observations show upper 60s dewpoints extending northward in the vicinity of a pre-frontal trough from far southeast WY into central ND. Expectation is for scattered to numerous thunderstorm development to occur over the next few hours ahead of the approaching shortwave, both along the cold front and pre-frontal trough. A predominately linear mode is anticipated along the front, but a few supercells are possible farther east along the lee trough where the buoyancy is greater and the vertical shear vector is a bit more southwesterly/westerly. Large hail around 1.75" is the primary threat with any more cellular development. Gusts from 60 to 70 mph will be the primary threat with the more linear storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed to address this severe potential. ..Mosier/Gleason.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 41570443 44910407 47630129 47109926 41580127 41570443 Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0496 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0496 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0496 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0495 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0495 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0495 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more