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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...20Z Updated... A small general thunderstorm area was added to account for ongoing convection over southern New England. This area is beneath the upper trough, with steep lapse rates, and little inhibition. Continued heating will support a few hours of shallow non-severe convection through late afternoon. The Marginal Risk area was reduced over parts of the southeast, as much of the area is subsident. Any change of locally strong gusts should be relegated to areas where upper 70s F dewpoints can counteract the relatively warm temperatures aloft. ...Northern/Central Plains... The severe risk area remains on track, with storms now developing along the front over the northern High Plains as the upper trough continues east. For more information see MCD 1503. To the south, an impressive temperature gradient exists along the warm front near the KS/NE border, with convection beginning to develop over northwest KS and eastern CO where temperatures are hot. Warming should spread north with the warm front later today into NE, with increasing storm coverage over time. Any cell within the narrow frontal zone may become supercellular, potentially thriving upon both enhanced low-level shear and surface based warmth. For more information, see forthcoming MCD 1504. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more