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5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 08:34:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 09:29:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250832 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 After a brief period of rapid strengthening earlier this evening, Gilma's intensity has leveled off. Conventional GOES-18 satellite imagery shows that the deep inner core convection has eroded considerably in the western half of the cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 115 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and various UW-CIMSS objective techniques. Although the current intensity is higher than noted in the previous advisory, Gilma likely peaked a few hours ago based on earlier ADT intensity estimates of 115-119 kt and the 0000 UTC constrained Data-T 6.5 subjective estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Although Gilma's period of rapid intensification has likely ended, some intensity fluctuations, common in major hurricanes, are possible in the short term, and the official forecast indicates little intensity change through Sunday. Afterward, the cyclone is expected to traverse cooler oceanic surface temperatures and move into a thermodynamically inhibiting dry and stable marine layer by the middle-part of the forecast. Early next week, the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows an increase in west-southwesterly shear spreading east of the Big Island of Hawaii. These negative intensity contributions should result in a weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward slightly from the previous one and is based on a blend of the Decay SHIPS statistical aid and the IVCN consensus model. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. A strengthening mid-troposphere subtropical ridge situated to the north of the hurricane should steer Gilma on a generally west-northwest or west track through day 5. The official track forecast is a little bit slower than the previous advisory beyond day 3 and is a compromise of the HCCA and TVCE consensus guidance. Gilma's wind radii have been adjusted based on a 0530 UTC METOP-B ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 18.0N 132.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 133.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.3N 135.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.5N 137.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 18.7N 139.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 19.2N 142.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 20.0N 146.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.6N 150.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250832 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 8 43(51) 4(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 135W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 43(54) 19(73) X(73) X(73) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 19(37) X(37) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250831 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 ...GILMA'S BRIEF RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS LEVELED OFF... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 132.5W ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 132.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward or westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some intensity fluctuations are possible through Sunday. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected although Gilma should remain a hurricane through early next week. Steady weakening is forecast to continue through the end of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GILMA'S BRIEF RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS LEVELED OFF... As of 11:00 PM HST Sat Aug 24 the center of Gilma was located near 18.0, -132.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 949 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250831 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 132.5W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 132.5W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 132.1W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.1N 133.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.3N 135.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 137.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.7N 139.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 141.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 142.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 146.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.6N 150.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 132.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... While upper ridging/weak flow aloft prevails across most of the southern 2/3 of the country, an active northern stream will persist Tuesday. Within this stream, and upper trough will continue moving eastward across western Canada and the northwest CONUS. Meanwhile, a weaker/lower amplitude downstream trough will nonetheless be the more substantial feature with respect to convective/severe potential. This trough, initially over the north-central U.S., is forecast to shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure initially near the Upper Mississippi Valley will accompany the eastward advance of the upper system, moving eastward across the Great Lakes region through the period. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and accompanying risk for large hail and damaging winds -- are expected to be ongoing across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period, in advance of the eastward-moving upper disturbance. Questions regarding initial location, and speed of advance, of this convection cast substantial uncertainties with respect to evolution of the severe threat into Tuesday afternoon and beyond. Still, as the upper system and associated surface low track eastward across the Great Lakes, and a moist boundary layer heats/strongly destabilizes through the afternoon in areas away from ongoing convection/clouds, severe threat should persist/shift eastward with time. With a belt of moderately strong deep-layer westerlies shifting across the Great Lakes in tandem with the upper system, potential for organized, rather fast-moving storms is indicated. While capping may limit convective coverage with southward extent, Wisconsin and Michigan appear likely to be the centroid of the risk. As storms spread eastward through the evening and into the overnight hours, the eastern extent of the risk is difficult to delineate at this time. At least some risk may reach as far east as the Lake Ontario/Finger Lakes region of New York and adjacent north-central Pennsylvania. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... While upper ridging/weak flow aloft prevails across most of the southern 2/3 of the country, an active northern stream will persist Tuesday. Within this stream, and upper trough will continue moving eastward across western Canada and the northwest CONUS. Meanwhile, a weaker/lower amplitude downstream trough will nonetheless be the more substantial feature with respect to convective/severe potential. This trough, initially over the north-central U.S., is forecast to shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure initially near the Upper Mississippi Valley will accompany the eastward advance of the upper system, moving eastward across the Great Lakes region through the period. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and accompanying risk for large hail and damaging winds -- are expected to be ongoing across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period, in advance of the eastward-moving upper disturbance. Questions regarding initial location, and speed of advance, of this convection cast substantial uncertainties with respect to evolution of the severe threat into Tuesday afternoon and beyond. Still, as the upper system and associated surface low track eastward across the Great Lakes, and a moist boundary layer heats/strongly destabilizes through the afternoon in areas away from ongoing convection/clouds, severe threat should persist/shift eastward with time. With a belt of moderately strong deep-layer westerlies shifting across the Great Lakes in tandem with the upper system, potential for organized, rather fast-moving storms is indicated. While capping may limit convective coverage with southward extent, Wisconsin and Michigan appear likely to be the centroid of the risk. As storms spread eastward through the evening and into the overnight hours, the eastern extent of the risk is difficult to delineate at this time. At least some risk may reach as far east as the Lake Ontario/Finger Lakes region of New York and adjacent north-central Pennsylvania. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... While upper ridging/weak flow aloft prevails across most of the southern 2/3 of the country, an active northern stream will persist Tuesday. Within this stream, and upper trough will continue moving eastward across western Canada and the northwest CONUS. Meanwhile, a weaker/lower amplitude downstream trough will nonetheless be the more substantial feature with respect to convective/severe potential. This trough, initially over the north-central U.S., is forecast to shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure initially near the Upper Mississippi Valley will accompany the eastward advance of the upper system, moving eastward across the Great Lakes region through the period. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and accompanying risk for large hail and damaging winds -- are expected to be ongoing across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period, in advance of the eastward-moving upper disturbance. Questions regarding initial location, and speed of advance, of this convection cast substantial uncertainties with respect to evolution of the severe threat into Tuesday afternoon and beyond. Still, as the upper system and associated surface low track eastward across the Great Lakes, and a moist boundary layer heats/strongly destabilizes through the afternoon in areas away from ongoing convection/clouds, severe threat should persist/shift eastward with time. With a belt of moderately strong deep-layer westerlies shifting across the Great Lakes in tandem with the upper system, potential for organized, rather fast-moving storms is indicated. While capping may limit convective coverage with southward extent, Wisconsin and Michigan appear likely to be the centroid of the risk. As storms spread eastward through the evening and into the overnight hours, the eastern extent of the risk is difficult to delineate at this time. At least some risk may reach as far east as the Lake Ontario/Finger Lakes region of New York and adjacent north-central Pennsylvania. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... While upper ridging/weak flow aloft prevails across most of the southern 2/3 of the country, an active northern stream will persist Tuesday. Within this stream, and upper trough will continue moving eastward across western Canada and the northwest CONUS. Meanwhile, a weaker/lower amplitude downstream trough will nonetheless be the more substantial feature with respect to convective/severe potential. This trough, initially over the north-central U.S., is forecast to shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure initially near the Upper Mississippi Valley will accompany the eastward advance of the upper system, moving eastward across the Great Lakes region through the period. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and accompanying risk for large hail and damaging winds -- are expected to be ongoing across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period, in advance of the eastward-moving upper disturbance. Questions regarding initial location, and speed of advance, of this convection cast substantial uncertainties with respect to evolution of the severe threat into Tuesday afternoon and beyond. Still, as the upper system and associated surface low track eastward across the Great Lakes, and a moist boundary layer heats/strongly destabilizes through the afternoon in areas away from ongoing convection/clouds, severe threat should persist/shift eastward with time. With a belt of moderately strong deep-layer westerlies shifting across the Great Lakes in tandem with the upper system, potential for organized, rather fast-moving storms is indicated. While capping may limit convective coverage with southward extent, Wisconsin and Michigan appear likely to be the centroid of the risk. As storms spread eastward through the evening and into the overnight hours, the eastern extent of the risk is difficult to delineate at this time. At least some risk may reach as far east as the Lake Ontario/Finger Lakes region of New York and adjacent north-central Pennsylvania. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe-weather potential is evident across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... While upper ridging/weak flow aloft prevails across most of the southern 2/3 of the country, an active northern stream will persist Tuesday. Within this stream, and upper trough will continue moving eastward across western Canada and the northwest CONUS. Meanwhile, a weaker/lower amplitude downstream trough will nonetheless be the more substantial feature with respect to convective/severe potential. This trough, initially over the north-central U.S., is forecast to shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario through Wednesday morning. At the surface, low pressure initially near the Upper Mississippi Valley will accompany the eastward advance of the upper system, moving eastward across the Great Lakes region through the period. ...Great Lakes region... Thunderstorms -- and accompanying risk for large hail and damaging winds -- are expected to be ongoing across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes region at the start of the period, in advance of the eastward-moving upper disturbance. Questions regarding initial location, and speed of advance, of this convection cast substantial uncertainties with respect to evolution of the severe threat into Tuesday afternoon and beyond. Still, as the upper system and associated surface low track eastward across the Great Lakes, and a moist boundary layer heats/strongly destabilizes through the afternoon in areas away from ongoing convection/clouds, severe threat should persist/shift eastward with time. With a belt of moderately strong deep-layer westerlies shifting across the Great Lakes in tandem with the upper system, potential for organized, rather fast-moving storms is indicated. While capping may limit convective coverage with southward extent, Wisconsin and Michigan appear likely to be the centroid of the risk. As storms spread eastward through the evening and into the overnight hours, the eastern extent of the risk is difficult to delineate at this time. At least some risk may reach as far east as the Lake Ontario/Finger Lakes region of New York and adjacent north-central Pennsylvania. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Day 2/Monday. As this occurs, enhanced deep-layer flow is forecast to overspread portions of Wyoming near the base of the aforementioned trough, which will promote dry and breezy conditions. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are probable -- mainly during the afternoon with boundary-layer mixing -- fire weather conditions appear too spotty/brief to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Day 2/Monday. As this occurs, enhanced deep-layer flow is forecast to overspread portions of Wyoming near the base of the aforementioned trough, which will promote dry and breezy conditions. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are probable -- mainly during the afternoon with boundary-layer mixing -- fire weather conditions appear too spotty/brief to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Day 2/Monday. As this occurs, enhanced deep-layer flow is forecast to overspread portions of Wyoming near the base of the aforementioned trough, which will promote dry and breezy conditions. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are probable -- mainly during the afternoon with boundary-layer mixing -- fire weather conditions appear too spotty/brief to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Day 2/Monday. As this occurs, enhanced deep-layer flow is forecast to overspread portions of Wyoming near the base of the aforementioned trough, which will promote dry and breezy conditions. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are probable -- mainly during the afternoon with boundary-layer mixing -- fire weather conditions appear too spotty/brief to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Day 2/Monday. As this occurs, enhanced deep-layer flow is forecast to overspread portions of Wyoming near the base of the aforementioned trough, which will promote dry and breezy conditions. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are probable -- mainly during the afternoon with boundary-layer mixing -- fire weather conditions appear too spotty/brief to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ..Elliott.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more