Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...Northern CA... Confidence has increased that gusty northerly winds will likely develop over parts of the northern Sacramento Valley late D1/Monday night and continue through D2/Tuesday beneath a strong ridge of high pressure. Extreme heat is also expected to support low humidity among rapidly drying fuels. An Elevated area has been introduced for the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills to cover near-critical fire-weather potential. ...Southern Plains... Extremely warm temperatures are expected to overlap with areas of dry southerly return flow over parts of western OK and the TX Panhandle D2/Tuesday. Afternoon highs over 100 F will allow for diurnal RH minimums of 25-30% colocated with southerly wind gusts in the 15-20 mph range. Ongoing flash drought has exacerbated area fuel concerns and elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Cascades and Columbia Basin... Dry northwesterly flow is expected to overspread the Cascade and western Columbia Basin ahead of the rapidly building ridge. Stronger gusts are possible through the Columbia Gorge and Cascade Gaps, as a weak upper trough moves around the eastern side of the ridge tomorrow afternoon. While fuels are not overly supportive currently, rapid drying and occasional gusts of 15-20 mph near the terrain may support locally elevated fire-weather concerns for a few hours. ..Lyons.. 07/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough responsible for fire weather conditions over the Great Basin today will eject into the Plains states tomorrow (Tuesday). Nonetheless, broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail over the Interior West for the Day 2 period. Furthermore, a mid-level jet streak will also approach from the northwest and overspread the Pacific Northwest during the later part of Day 2. Dry downslope flow is likely over the lee of the Cascade Ranges into the Harney Basin in Oregon, as well as the Columbia Basin in eastern Washington. Latest high-resolution guidance consensus depicts Elevated-equivalent conditions constrained to mainly the higher terrain. When also considering modest fuel receptiveness, fire weather highlights have been withheld this outlook. However, Elevated highlights may be needed in future outlooks if Elevated dry and windy conditions become more prevalent in later guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0494 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0494 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0494 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0494 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 1 19:19:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jul 1 17:55:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly from Kansas into northern Missouri and into Iowa on Tuesday. Damaging wind will be the most likely threat, with areas of hail. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will exist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with a prominent lead wave moving from the northern Plains across the upper MS Valley. An upper high will remain over the lower MS valley, but the impinging trough will flatten the ridge across the lower MO Valley and Midwest. The primary surface low will pivot northward across Manitoba and western Ontario, with a cold front extending from MN into KS by late afternoon. Ample moisture and instability will develop ahead of the front from eastern CO across KS and into MO and parts of IA, with modest shear. ...Central Plains into the MS Valley... Strong heating will steepen lapse rates during the day from the southern High Plains into much of KS and nosing into western MO by late in the day ahead of the front. Weak height falls are forecast near southwest parts of the boundary, with stronger ascent into IA. Storms are forecast to be most numerous from northeast KS into northern MO and IA, in closer proximity to the midlevel height falls. Here, storms should form by 21Z along the front, with areas of upscale growth into clusters and an MCS. Severe winds are expected, especially into the Enhanced Risk area from northeast KS into northern MO and southern IA through early evening. The eastward extent will become limited by increasing convective inhibition. Otherwise, large hail is more likely southwestward across KS where heating and instability will be more robust. Locally damaging gusts may occur in the hot air toward the OK/TX Panhandles, with hail and possible left movers north of the surface front across western KS. ..Jewell.. 07/01/2024 Read more