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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SMALL PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern High Plains eastward to the Wisconsin vicinity during the afternoon and evening Monday. A few severe storms are also expected across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper trough is forecast to remain across the central U.S. Monday. On the northwestern periphery of this ridge, and short-wave trough initially over the Intermountain West is forecast to advance northeastward across the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains through the period. Meanwhile, an upper low is forecast to shift southward out of the St. Lawrence Valley area across western/southern New England, before shifting offshore overnight. Finally, a Gulf of Alaska upper trough is forecast to advance into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest through Tuesday morning. At the surface, a northwest-to-southeast cold front is forecast to extend from the northeastern Minnesota vicinity southwestward across Nebraska early in the period. The front should move little through the day, as a frontal low lingers in the vicinity of the Mid-Missouri Valley area. Overnight, the low is forecast to shift northeastward, allowing the trailing portion of the cold front to progress southward across the central Plains through latter stages of the period. ...Northern High Plains east to parts of Wisconsin... Thunderstorms may be ongoing across portions of northern Minnesota early Monday morning, with limited severe risk potentially lingering through roughly midday. Meanwhile, as the moist low-level airmass heats near and south of the convectively reinforced front, mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range is forecast to develop through the afternoon. This, combined with ascent near the front/convective outflows, should allow isolated storms to develop across the eastern South Dakota vicinity. The storms should rapidly become supercells, given the kinematic environment characterized by low-level flow veering/increasing with height to 40 to 50 kt southwesterlies at mid levels. Very large hail is expected, along with damaging wind gusts. Storms will continue into the evening, possibly growing upscale into an MCS overnight -- shifting northeastward into/across southern Minnesota. Along with continued risk for large hail, damaging winds would likely accompany this convection. In addition, a couple of tornadoes may also occur -- particularly just to the northeast of the anticipated position of the surface low where low-level flow will remain backed/southeasterly. Meanwhile farther west, into the High Plains, isolated afternoon convective development is expected, in closer proximity to the advancing upper system. A drier boundary layer and thus weaker CAPE across this region suggests less substantial severe risk. Still, hail and damaging gusts should accompany a few of the stronger storms, given the belt of 50 kt mid-level southwesterly flow accompanying the advancing short-wave trough. ...Portions of the Northeast/New England... As the upper low shifts southward across western New England through the day Monday, heating/destabilization is expected to support development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Enhanced northwesterly flow near and west of the low should support southeastward-moving bands/clusters of storms, which should prove locally capable of producing strong -- potentially damaging -- gusts from mid afternoon into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 08/25/2024 Read more

MD 1986 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1986 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Montana and extreme northwest North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250430Z - 250630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail threat are expected with convection into the early morning hours across northeast Montana. DISCUSSION...Right-entrance region of a mid-level jet over southern SK may be partly responsible for recent uptick in elevated convection that is spreading into northeast MT. Latest surface data suggests a weak low is tracking across southeast MT toward western ND. Primary pacific frontal surge is associated with a gradually expanding cluster of thunderstorms from southern Phillips to northern Rosebud County. Severe wind gust has recently been reported at JDN along the leading edge of this activity. Latest HREF guidance has a reasonable handle on this scenario and subsequent movement should spread across the remainder of northeast MT early this morning. Unless multiple supercells develop within this expanding cluster, hail production should be limited and generally less than one inch. Even so, an isolated severe report or two can not be ruled out, and most likely will be a gust approaching 50kt. Given the marginality of this convection, current thinking is a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently needed. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 08/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW... LAT...LON 48100763 49440522 48780356 47030593 48100763 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms may develop across the northern Plains this afternoon and evening, with more isolated severe potential from the High Plains into the Four Corners vicinity. A couple of strong/marginally severe storms may also occur across parts of Ohio and lower Michigan. ...Synopsis... The southern portion of a persistent upper-level trough over the West will move slowly eastward today, as an embedded mid/upper cyclone moves slowly northeastward over the Great Basin. An upper-level trough will persist over the northeast CONUS, to the south of a weak mid/upper cyclone over Quebec. At the surface, the southern extension of a cold front across the Canadian Prairies will move into the Northern Plains, with a weak surface cyclone potentially developing near the NE/SD border. ...Central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota Strong instability is forecast by afternoon along/ahead of the cold front from the central/eastern Dakotas into Minnesota, with sufficient effective shear (generally 30-40 kt) for some storm organization. However, with some capping and generally modest large-scale ascent, details regarding storm development during the afternoon/evening remain somewhat uncertain. In general, at least isolated development will be possible near the front across the eastern Dakotas into northwest MN. There will be some supercell potential with initial development, with an attendant threat of hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado. Depending on the extent of storm coverage, some upscale growth into clusters with an increasing damaging-wind threat will be possible by evening. There is also some signal for elevated convection across parts of the region later tonight, which could pose a severe threat in the presence of large MUCAPE. ...Four Corners region into Wyoming and the adjacent High Plains... Some organized severe potential is evident from the Four Corners region into eastern UT/western CO this afternoon, as the mid/upper cyclone and related shortwave trough over the Great Basin begin to impinge on the western periphery of the midlevel moist plume. With scattered to numerous storms expected for much of the day, the magnitude of destabilization remains uncertain. However, sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for marginal supercells and a few stronger clusters capable of strong to severe gusts and isolated hail. Farther east into parts of the High Plains, isolated storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening, though coverage and organization may tend to be limited by weak large-scale ascent and only weak to marginal deep-layer shear. Isolated strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region. ...Parts of OH/lower MI... Showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of OH and lower MI, in conjunction with diurnal heating. Guidance continues to vary considerably regarding instability and the coverage/intensity of convection across the region. However. steepening low-level lapse rates and modest northwesterly flow aloft could support gusty-wind and small-hail potential with any stronger storms. ..Dean/Elliott.. 08/25/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250525
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about midway between the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula and the Hawaiian Islands.

Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains displaced to the
south-southwest of an area of low pressure located well away from
land over the central portion of the basin. Environmental winds
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the next couple of
days while the system moves toward the west-northwest at around 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 02:35:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 03:29:28 GMT

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250233 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 Gilma continues to defy the odds and intensify. The satellite depiction over the last several hours has been one of a well-organized strengthening hurricane. The eyewall is tightly wrapped producing deep convection with lightning depicted in the northern eyewall on GLM satellite imagery. Visible imagery shows that the eye has become circular, well-defined, and has been clearing out. Subjective Dvorak estimates have increased but were constrained to T6.0/115 kt from both SAB and TAFB, with both agencies reporting higher data-T values. Objective satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these estimates the initial intensity is raised to 110 kt for this advisory. Therefore, Gilma's strengthening has met the definition of rapid intensification as the system has strengthened 30 kt in 12 h. The initial motion remains 275/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the hurricane continues to gradually build and strengthen. This should steer Gilma on a generally westward track through the forecast period. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement, although there continues to be some forward speed differences, particularly towards the end of the period. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. Gilma has managed to rapidly intensify over marginally warm sea surface temperatures, and has established a well-defined inner core within a very low wind shear environment. The system's slightly increasing forward speed may have also allowed it to avoid some of the negative impacts from upwelling. Given the higher initial intensity there are some changes in the near-term intensity forecast, with Gilma maintaining hurricane strength longer than previously forecast. As Gilma moves into cooler SSTs and a little more wind shear, this will cause a gradual weakening trend to ensue. Beyond 24 h the system will begin to move into a drier and more stable airmass which should increase the rate of weakening as wind shear further increases by days 3-4. Global models show Gilma starting to struggle to produce convection around day 5, with the NHC forecast depicting Gilma as a remnant low at that time. The NHC forecast is above most of the intensity guidance in the near term given the higher initial intensity, but is near the simple consensus intensity aids as the system begins to weaken. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.8N 131.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/0000Z 20.3N 150.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 250233 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 135W 34 3 36(39) 10(49) 2(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 20N 135W 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 32(38) 29(67) X(67) X(67) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) X(24) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 25(40) 1(41) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250233 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024 ...GILMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 131.8W ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 1530 MI...2460 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 131.8 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Gilma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening could occur through tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Sunday, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane into early next week. Steady weakening will then continue through the middle of the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...GILMA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... As of 5:00 PM HST Sat Aug 24 the center of Gilma was located near 17.8, -131.8 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 250233 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 131.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 131.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 131.4W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.9N 133.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 19.6N 146.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 150.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 131.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST MT... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of northeast Montana, and for a few hours this evening from the central High Plains into the Four Corners region. ...Northeast MT vicinity... An isolated supercell or two remains possible through mid evening across extreme northeast MT into far northwest ND, within an environment characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear (as noted in the 00Z GGW sounding). Later tonight, some guidance (most notably recent HRRR runs) suggests potential for an elevated storm cluster to develop and move across northeast MT and potentially extreme northwest ND. High-based convection currently developing across east-central MT lends some credence to this scenario, though uncertainty remains. Should this occur, MUCAPE and deep-layer shear will remain favorable for organized storms with hail and severe-gust potential, before the cluster moves into SK. A Slight Risk has been added for the conditional potential for hail and strong to severe gusts later tonight. ...Four Corners into the central High Plains... Multiple clusters of generally disorganized convection are ongoing early this evening from northern NM into parts of CO. Localized strong to severe gusts will be possible within the well-mixed environment across the region for a few hours this evening, before convection generally weakens. Some intensification cannot be ruled out where stronger instability is in place from northeast CO into western NE, though MLCINH should become increasingly prohibitive with time. ...Southern KS into western OK...northwest TX...OK/TX Panhandles... Isolated high-based storms may continue to pose a short-term threat of localized downbursts from northwest TX/western OK into the TX/OK Panhandles and southern KS. However, storms should continue to be disorganized, and tend to diminish quickly with time this evening. ..Dean.. 08/25/2024 Read more