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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains, especially portions of Nebraska and the Dakotas. Scattered severe/damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. ...Northern/Central Plains... A notable upper trough across the northern Rockies will advance eastward today over the northern/central Plains. Related low-level mass response will encourage multiple surface lows to slowly deepen across the northern/central High Plains. An occluded/cold front will move eastward across the western/central Dakotas through this evening, while a warm front attempts to lift northward across northern KS into NE. Current expectations are for robust convection to develop along both the front in the western Dakotas, and the higher terrain of WY/CO as large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the warm sector. Low-level moisture will remain more limited with northward extent into the Dakotas. But, sufficient instability in a narrow corridor, along with strong deep-layer shear, is still anticipated. Initial supercells over western ND/SD should pose a threat for large hail, before convection quickly grows upscale into a bowing cluster towards central ND/SD with a greater threat for severe/damaging winds. With sufficient ambient near-surface vorticity along the front, a brief tornado or two also appears possible with initially more cellular development. This activity should weaken with eastward extent tonight as it encounters much weaker instability towards the MN border. Initially high-based convection over central CO may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts as it moves into eastern CO/western KS and encounters a very well mixed boundary layer. The Marginal Risk has been expanded westward and southward a bit in CO to account for this potential. Otherwise, thunderstorms should eventually develop and strengthen by late this afternoon along/east of a surface low centered over northeast CO. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to support supercells, but convective mode may quickly become messy as activity moves eastward along/near the northward-advancing warm front in NE. Large hail may occur with any sustained supercell, and sufficient low-level shear will be present along/near the warm front to support a threat for a few tornadoes. Even so, a more clustery/linear mode may become dominant fairly soon after initial development. This would support a greater threat for severe/damaging winds, and perhaps isolated gusts up to about 75 mph. Regardless of continued uncertainty over what the dominant convective mode will be, the severe threat will likely persist into eastern NE/western IA this evening and tonight before thunderstorms eventually weaken. ...Southeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along and south of a cold front draped east to west across parts of the Southeast. Although mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain modest, steepened low-level lapse rates though daytime heating and plentiful low-level moisture will easily support moderate to strong instability. Occasional strong to damaging winds may occur with the more robust cores and loosely organized clusters as they move generally southward through the early evening before eventually weakening. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 07/01/2024 Read more

Starr County officials adopted a burn ban as the Fourth of July neared. The ban covered open burning as well as the sale and use of fireworks. KFXV FOX Rio Grande Valley (McAllen, Texas), July 1, 2024

Crops in the Virginia Beach area were affected by heat and drought. The corn was just four to five feet tall and tasseled. WAVY-TV NBC 10 Portsmouth (Hampton Roads, Va.), June 25, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/ central Plains, especially parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible, along with a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over north TX is forecast to shift east-southeastward over northern LA and weaken slightly. This will occur as height falls spread across much of the Great Plains States ahead of a synoptic-scale trough, initially located from the northern Rockies across the western Great Basin to the Sierra Nevada. The trough is expected to progress eastward through the period, faster on its north end (thus becoming more positively tilted). By 12Z tomorrow, it should extend from Lake Winnipeg southwestward across ND, central WY, and UT, to near LAS. A series of minor shortwaves and vorticity maxima will be embedded in the foregoing southwest flow aloft, and will traverse the central/northern Plains today and tonight. That includes small, convectively generated/enhanced perturbations embedded in a mid/upper-level monsoonal moisture plume, evident in moisture- channel imagery from west-central/northwestern MX across AZ, the Four Corners region, and most of CO/NE. Farther east, a mid/upper trough -- initially from the lower St. Lawrence River region of southeastern Canada across Update NY/PA/WV -- will move eastward off the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts between 00-06Z. The surface map at 11Z showed a cold front -- associated with and preceding the leading mid/upper trough -- across northeastern/south- central BC, northern parts of SC/GA/AL/MS, across central AR. The front is forecast to move offshore from all the Atlantic Coast north of about SAV by 00Z, then extend from there through a wave over central GA to near a line from MOB-BTR-GGG, becoming ill-defined farther northwest. Another cold front was drawn from a triple-point low over southwestern ND southwestward across central WY and northern UT. By 00Z, the latter front should reach the central Dakotas, northwestern NE and northwestern CO. A broad area of low pressure should slow/stall the front temporarily over northeastern CO and south-central/southwestern NE tonight, while it advances to the eastern Dakotas and southeastern UT. ...Central/northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over a broad area of the western Dakotas, and the central High Plains, along/ahead of the cold front and near a lee trough/weak dryline over parts of southwestern NE and eastern CO. A few strong-severe thunderstorms also may form in the post-frontal upslope-flow regime near the Bighorns and offer severe hail/gusts eastward toward the western Black Hills. The most favorable environment for severe will be across parts of southern/central NE near a prominent moist axis, zone of warm frontogenesis, and also possibly differential heating (from the southern rim of morning clouds/precip). In this regime, backed flow and relatively maximized moisture will maximize both kinematic and thermodynamic parameters favorable for supercells. A corridor of 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints -- already apparent from eastern OK across western KS to western NE -- should shift northeastward through the day, eroded on the west side by heating/mixing (as per modifying the 12Z DDC RAOB) but reinforced father east through moist advection. That moisture, and strong diurnal heating, will support a narrow plume of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Locally large hodographs are expected in the backed surface winds, yielding effective SRH in the 250-450 J/kg range. Supercells with all severe hazards (including a few tornadoes and large hail) will be possible in that regime, especially with relatively discrete storms. Significant (2+ inch diameter) hail cannot be ruled out, but that threat may be mitigated somewhat by relatively warm temperatures aloft in the monsoonal moist plume. Upscale growth of early convection into lines an clusters is possible, both in the southern NE regime wherever activity becomes outflow-dominant before encountering the moisture plume, and farther north as a possible frontal/prefrontal QLCS. The most sustained potential for upscale evolution appears to be with the central/ southern NE activity shifting tonight into eastern NE, western IA and the Siouxland region, where inflow-layer moisture and instability should be greatest. As such, the potential for cold-pool-aided convective-gust enhancement remains represented by a significant-wind area inside the broader 15% unconditional wind line. If confidence increases in a specific MCS corridor, that probability may need to be raised in a succeeding outlook. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered, multicellular thunderstorms are expected this afternoon between the frontal zone over GA/SC/AL on the north, and on the south, sea-breeze and differential-heating boundaries. The most intense cells will be capable of water-loaded downbursts near severe limits. A very moisture-rich boundary layer will persist across the region, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s F and PW near 2 inches. Strong surface heating will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg. Low/middle-level flow and shear should be weak, though a belt of strong northerly to northeasterly winds in upper levels (near anvil level) may aid in storm organization. Severe potential should be isolated and pulse in nature, with short-lived, localized clustering possible, and should wane after sunset. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/ central Plains, especially parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible, along with a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over north TX is forecast to shift east-southeastward over northern LA and weaken slightly. This will occur as height falls spread across much of the Great Plains States ahead of a synoptic-scale trough, initially located from the northern Rockies across the western Great Basin to the Sierra Nevada. The trough is expected to progress eastward through the period, faster on its north end (thus becoming more positively tilted). By 12Z tomorrow, it should extend from Lake Winnipeg southwestward across ND, central WY, and UT, to near LAS. A series of minor shortwaves and vorticity maxima will be embedded in the foregoing southwest flow aloft, and will traverse the central/northern Plains today and tonight. That includes small, convectively generated/enhanced perturbations embedded in a mid/upper-level monsoonal moisture plume, evident in moisture- channel imagery from west-central/northwestern MX across AZ, the Four Corners region, and most of CO/NE. Farther east, a mid/upper trough -- initially from the lower St. Lawrence River region of southeastern Canada across Update NY/PA/WV -- will move eastward off the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts between 00-06Z. The surface map at 11Z showed a cold front -- associated with and preceding the leading mid/upper trough -- across northeastern/south- central BC, northern parts of SC/GA/AL/MS, across central AR. The front is forecast to move offshore from all the Atlantic Coast north of about SAV by 00Z, then extend from there through a wave over central GA to near a line from MOB-BTR-GGG, becoming ill-defined farther northwest. Another cold front was drawn from a triple-point low over southwestern ND southwestward across central WY and northern UT. By 00Z, the latter front should reach the central Dakotas, northwestern NE and northwestern CO. A broad area of low pressure should slow/stall the front temporarily over northeastern CO and south-central/southwestern NE tonight, while it advances to the eastern Dakotas and southeastern UT. ...Central/northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over a broad area of the western Dakotas, and the central High Plains, along/ahead of the cold front and near a lee trough/weak dryline over parts of southwestern NE and eastern CO. A few strong-severe thunderstorms also may form in the post-frontal upslope-flow regime near the Bighorns and offer severe hail/gusts eastward toward the western Black Hills. The most favorable environment for severe will be across parts of southern/central NE near a prominent moist axis, zone of warm frontogenesis, and also possibly differential heating (from the southern rim of morning clouds/precip). In this regime, backed flow and relatively maximized moisture will maximize both kinematic and thermodynamic parameters favorable for supercells. A corridor of 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints -- already apparent from eastern OK across western KS to western NE -- should shift northeastward through the day, eroded on the west side by heating/mixing (as per modifying the 12Z DDC RAOB) but reinforced father east through moist advection. That moisture, and strong diurnal heating, will support a narrow plume of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Locally large hodographs are expected in the backed surface winds, yielding effective SRH in the 250-450 J/kg range. Supercells with all severe hazards (including a few tornadoes and large hail) will be possible in that regime, especially with relatively discrete storms. Significant (2+ inch diameter) hail cannot be ruled out, but that threat may be mitigated somewhat by relatively warm temperatures aloft in the monsoonal moist plume. Upscale growth of early convection into lines an clusters is possible, both in the southern NE regime wherever activity becomes outflow-dominant before encountering the moisture plume, and farther north as a possible frontal/prefrontal QLCS. The most sustained potential for upscale evolution appears to be with the central/ southern NE activity shifting tonight into eastern NE, western IA and the Siouxland region, where inflow-layer moisture and instability should be greatest. As such, the potential for cold-pool-aided convective-gust enhancement remains represented by a significant-wind area inside the broader 15% unconditional wind line. If confidence increases in a specific MCS corridor, that probability may need to be raised in a succeeding outlook. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered, multicellular thunderstorms are expected this afternoon between the frontal zone over GA/SC/AL on the north, and on the south, sea-breeze and differential-heating boundaries. The most intense cells will be capable of water-loaded downbursts near severe limits. A very moisture-rich boundary layer will persist across the region, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s F and PW near 2 inches. Strong surface heating will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg. Low/middle-level flow and shear should be weak, though a belt of strong northerly to northeasterly winds in upper levels (near anvil level) may aid in storm organization. Severe potential should be isolated and pulse in nature, with short-lived, localized clustering possible, and should wane after sunset. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/ central Plains, especially parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible, along with a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over north TX is forecast to shift east-southeastward over northern LA and weaken slightly. This will occur as height falls spread across much of the Great Plains States ahead of a synoptic-scale trough, initially located from the northern Rockies across the western Great Basin to the Sierra Nevada. The trough is expected to progress eastward through the period, faster on its north end (thus becoming more positively tilted). By 12Z tomorrow, it should extend from Lake Winnipeg southwestward across ND, central WY, and UT, to near LAS. A series of minor shortwaves and vorticity maxima will be embedded in the foregoing southwest flow aloft, and will traverse the central/northern Plains today and tonight. That includes small, convectively generated/enhanced perturbations embedded in a mid/upper-level monsoonal moisture plume, evident in moisture- channel imagery from west-central/northwestern MX across AZ, the Four Corners region, and most of CO/NE. Farther east, a mid/upper trough -- initially from the lower St. Lawrence River region of southeastern Canada across Update NY/PA/WV -- will move eastward off the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts between 00-06Z. The surface map at 11Z showed a cold front -- associated with and preceding the leading mid/upper trough -- across northeastern/south- central BC, northern parts of SC/GA/AL/MS, across central AR. The front is forecast to move offshore from all the Atlantic Coast north of about SAV by 00Z, then extend from there through a wave over central GA to near a line from MOB-BTR-GGG, becoming ill-defined farther northwest. Another cold front was drawn from a triple-point low over southwestern ND southwestward across central WY and northern UT. By 00Z, the latter front should reach the central Dakotas, northwestern NE and northwestern CO. A broad area of low pressure should slow/stall the front temporarily over northeastern CO and south-central/southwestern NE tonight, while it advances to the eastern Dakotas and southeastern UT. ...Central/northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over a broad area of the western Dakotas, and the central High Plains, along/ahead of the cold front and near a lee trough/weak dryline over parts of southwestern NE and eastern CO. A few strong-severe thunderstorms also may form in the post-frontal upslope-flow regime near the Bighorns and offer severe hail/gusts eastward toward the western Black Hills. The most favorable environment for severe will be across parts of southern/central NE near a prominent moist axis, zone of warm frontogenesis, and also possibly differential heating (from the southern rim of morning clouds/precip). In this regime, backed flow and relatively maximized moisture will maximize both kinematic and thermodynamic parameters favorable for supercells. A corridor of 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints -- already apparent from eastern OK across western KS to western NE -- should shift northeastward through the day, eroded on the west side by heating/mixing (as per modifying the 12Z DDC RAOB) but reinforced father east through moist advection. That moisture, and strong diurnal heating, will support a narrow plume of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Locally large hodographs are expected in the backed surface winds, yielding effective SRH in the 250-450 J/kg range. Supercells with all severe hazards (including a few tornadoes and large hail) will be possible in that regime, especially with relatively discrete storms. Significant (2+ inch diameter) hail cannot be ruled out, but that threat may be mitigated somewhat by relatively warm temperatures aloft in the monsoonal moist plume. Upscale growth of early convection into lines an clusters is possible, both in the southern NE regime wherever activity becomes outflow-dominant before encountering the moisture plume, and farther north as a possible frontal/prefrontal QLCS. The most sustained potential for upscale evolution appears to be with the central/ southern NE activity shifting tonight into eastern NE, western IA and the Siouxland region, where inflow-layer moisture and instability should be greatest. As such, the potential for cold-pool-aided convective-gust enhancement remains represented by a significant-wind area inside the broader 15% unconditional wind line. If confidence increases in a specific MCS corridor, that probability may need to be raised in a succeeding outlook. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered, multicellular thunderstorms are expected this afternoon between the frontal zone over GA/SC/AL on the north, and on the south, sea-breeze and differential-heating boundaries. The most intense cells will be capable of water-loaded downbursts near severe limits. A very moisture-rich boundary layer will persist across the region, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s F and PW near 2 inches. Strong surface heating will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg. Low/middle-level flow and shear should be weak, though a belt of strong northerly to northeasterly winds in upper levels (near anvil level) may aid in storm organization. Severe potential should be isolated and pulse in nature, with short-lived, localized clustering possible, and should wane after sunset. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/ central Plains, especially parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible, along with a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over north TX is forecast to shift east-southeastward over northern LA and weaken slightly. This will occur as height falls spread across much of the Great Plains States ahead of a synoptic-scale trough, initially located from the northern Rockies across the western Great Basin to the Sierra Nevada. The trough is expected to progress eastward through the period, faster on its north end (thus becoming more positively tilted). By 12Z tomorrow, it should extend from Lake Winnipeg southwestward across ND, central WY, and UT, to near LAS. A series of minor shortwaves and vorticity maxima will be embedded in the foregoing southwest flow aloft, and will traverse the central/northern Plains today and tonight. That includes small, convectively generated/enhanced perturbations embedded in a mid/upper-level monsoonal moisture plume, evident in moisture- channel imagery from west-central/northwestern MX across AZ, the Four Corners region, and most of CO/NE. Farther east, a mid/upper trough -- initially from the lower St. Lawrence River region of southeastern Canada across Update NY/PA/WV -- will move eastward off the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts between 00-06Z. The surface map at 11Z showed a cold front -- associated with and preceding the leading mid/upper trough -- across northeastern/south- central BC, northern parts of SC/GA/AL/MS, across central AR. The front is forecast to move offshore from all the Atlantic Coast north of about SAV by 00Z, then extend from there through a wave over central GA to near a line from MOB-BTR-GGG, becoming ill-defined farther northwest. Another cold front was drawn from a triple-point low over southwestern ND southwestward across central WY and northern UT. By 00Z, the latter front should reach the central Dakotas, northwestern NE and northwestern CO. A broad area of low pressure should slow/stall the front temporarily over northeastern CO and south-central/southwestern NE tonight, while it advances to the eastern Dakotas and southeastern UT. ...Central/northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over a broad area of the western Dakotas, and the central High Plains, along/ahead of the cold front and near a lee trough/weak dryline over parts of southwestern NE and eastern CO. A few strong-severe thunderstorms also may form in the post-frontal upslope-flow regime near the Bighorns and offer severe hail/gusts eastward toward the western Black Hills. The most favorable environment for severe will be across parts of southern/central NE near a prominent moist axis, zone of warm frontogenesis, and also possibly differential heating (from the southern rim of morning clouds/precip). In this regime, backed flow and relatively maximized moisture will maximize both kinematic and thermodynamic parameters favorable for supercells. A corridor of 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints -- already apparent from eastern OK across western KS to western NE -- should shift northeastward through the day, eroded on the west side by heating/mixing (as per modifying the 12Z DDC RAOB) but reinforced father east through moist advection. That moisture, and strong diurnal heating, will support a narrow plume of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Locally large hodographs are expected in the backed surface winds, yielding effective SRH in the 250-450 J/kg range. Supercells with all severe hazards (including a few tornadoes and large hail) will be possible in that regime, especially with relatively discrete storms. Significant (2+ inch diameter) hail cannot be ruled out, but that threat may be mitigated somewhat by relatively warm temperatures aloft in the monsoonal moist plume. Upscale growth of early convection into lines an clusters is possible, both in the southern NE regime wherever activity becomes outflow-dominant before encountering the moisture plume, and farther north as a possible frontal/prefrontal QLCS. The most sustained potential for upscale evolution appears to be with the central/ southern NE activity shifting tonight into eastern NE, western IA and the Siouxland region, where inflow-layer moisture and instability should be greatest. As such, the potential for cold-pool-aided convective-gust enhancement remains represented by a significant-wind area inside the broader 15% unconditional wind line. If confidence increases in a specific MCS corridor, that probability may need to be raised in a succeeding outlook. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered, multicellular thunderstorms are expected this afternoon between the frontal zone over GA/SC/AL on the north, and on the south, sea-breeze and differential-heating boundaries. The most intense cells will be capable of water-loaded downbursts near severe limits. A very moisture-rich boundary layer will persist across the region, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s F and PW near 2 inches. Strong surface heating will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg. Low/middle-level flow and shear should be weak, though a belt of strong northerly to northeasterly winds in upper levels (near anvil level) may aid in storm organization. Severe potential should be isolated and pulse in nature, with short-lived, localized clustering possible, and should wane after sunset. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/ central Plains, especially parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible, along with a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over north TX is forecast to shift east-southeastward over northern LA and weaken slightly. This will occur as height falls spread across much of the Great Plains States ahead of a synoptic-scale trough, initially located from the northern Rockies across the western Great Basin to the Sierra Nevada. The trough is expected to progress eastward through the period, faster on its north end (thus becoming more positively tilted). By 12Z tomorrow, it should extend from Lake Winnipeg southwestward across ND, central WY, and UT, to near LAS. A series of minor shortwaves and vorticity maxima will be embedded in the foregoing southwest flow aloft, and will traverse the central/northern Plains today and tonight. That includes small, convectively generated/enhanced perturbations embedded in a mid/upper-level monsoonal moisture plume, evident in moisture- channel imagery from west-central/northwestern MX across AZ, the Four Corners region, and most of CO/NE. Farther east, a mid/upper trough -- initially from the lower St. Lawrence River region of southeastern Canada across Update NY/PA/WV -- will move eastward off the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts between 00-06Z. The surface map at 11Z showed a cold front -- associated with and preceding the leading mid/upper trough -- across northeastern/south- central BC, northern parts of SC/GA/AL/MS, across central AR. The front is forecast to move offshore from all the Atlantic Coast north of about SAV by 00Z, then extend from there through a wave over central GA to near a line from MOB-BTR-GGG, becoming ill-defined farther northwest. Another cold front was drawn from a triple-point low over southwestern ND southwestward across central WY and northern UT. By 00Z, the latter front should reach the central Dakotas, northwestern NE and northwestern CO. A broad area of low pressure should slow/stall the front temporarily over northeastern CO and south-central/southwestern NE tonight, while it advances to the eastern Dakotas and southeastern UT. ...Central/northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over a broad area of the western Dakotas, and the central High Plains, along/ahead of the cold front and near a lee trough/weak dryline over parts of southwestern NE and eastern CO. A few strong-severe thunderstorms also may form in the post-frontal upslope-flow regime near the Bighorns and offer severe hail/gusts eastward toward the western Black Hills. The most favorable environment for severe will be across parts of southern/central NE near a prominent moist axis, zone of warm frontogenesis, and also possibly differential heating (from the southern rim of morning clouds/precip). In this regime, backed flow and relatively maximized moisture will maximize both kinematic and thermodynamic parameters favorable for supercells. A corridor of 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints -- already apparent from eastern OK across western KS to western NE -- should shift northeastward through the day, eroded on the west side by heating/mixing (as per modifying the 12Z DDC RAOB) but reinforced father east through moist advection. That moisture, and strong diurnal heating, will support a narrow plume of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Locally large hodographs are expected in the backed surface winds, yielding effective SRH in the 250-450 J/kg range. Supercells with all severe hazards (including a few tornadoes and large hail) will be possible in that regime, especially with relatively discrete storms. Significant (2+ inch diameter) hail cannot be ruled out, but that threat may be mitigated somewhat by relatively warm temperatures aloft in the monsoonal moist plume. Upscale growth of early convection into lines an clusters is possible, both in the southern NE regime wherever activity becomes outflow-dominant before encountering the moisture plume, and farther north as a possible frontal/prefrontal QLCS. The most sustained potential for upscale evolution appears to be with the central/ southern NE activity shifting tonight into eastern NE, western IA and the Siouxland region, where inflow-layer moisture and instability should be greatest. As such, the potential for cold-pool-aided convective-gust enhancement remains represented by a significant-wind area inside the broader 15% unconditional wind line. If confidence increases in a specific MCS corridor, that probability may need to be raised in a succeeding outlook. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered, multicellular thunderstorms are expected this afternoon between the frontal zone over GA/SC/AL on the north, and on the south, sea-breeze and differential-heating boundaries. The most intense cells will be capable of water-loaded downbursts near severe limits. A very moisture-rich boundary layer will persist across the region, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s F and PW near 2 inches. Strong surface heating will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg. Low/middle-level flow and shear should be weak, though a belt of strong northerly to northeasterly winds in upper levels (near anvil level) may aid in storm organization. Severe potential should be isolated and pulse in nature, with short-lived, localized clustering possible, and should wane after sunset. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the northern/ central Plains, especially parts of Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible, along with a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level anticyclone centered over north TX is forecast to shift east-southeastward over northern LA and weaken slightly. This will occur as height falls spread across much of the Great Plains States ahead of a synoptic-scale trough, initially located from the northern Rockies across the western Great Basin to the Sierra Nevada. The trough is expected to progress eastward through the period, faster on its north end (thus becoming more positively tilted). By 12Z tomorrow, it should extend from Lake Winnipeg southwestward across ND, central WY, and UT, to near LAS. A series of minor shortwaves and vorticity maxima will be embedded in the foregoing southwest flow aloft, and will traverse the central/northern Plains today and tonight. That includes small, convectively generated/enhanced perturbations embedded in a mid/upper-level monsoonal moisture plume, evident in moisture- channel imagery from west-central/northwestern MX across AZ, the Four Corners region, and most of CO/NE. Farther east, a mid/upper trough -- initially from the lower St. Lawrence River region of southeastern Canada across Update NY/PA/WV -- will move eastward off the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts between 00-06Z. The surface map at 11Z showed a cold front -- associated with and preceding the leading mid/upper trough -- across northeastern/south- central BC, northern parts of SC/GA/AL/MS, across central AR. The front is forecast to move offshore from all the Atlantic Coast north of about SAV by 00Z, then extend from there through a wave over central GA to near a line from MOB-BTR-GGG, becoming ill-defined farther northwest. Another cold front was drawn from a triple-point low over southwestern ND southwestward across central WY and northern UT. By 00Z, the latter front should reach the central Dakotas, northwestern NE and northwestern CO. A broad area of low pressure should slow/stall the front temporarily over northeastern CO and south-central/southwestern NE tonight, while it advances to the eastern Dakotas and southeastern UT. ...Central/northern Plains... Scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over a broad area of the western Dakotas, and the central High Plains, along/ahead of the cold front and near a lee trough/weak dryline over parts of southwestern NE and eastern CO. A few strong-severe thunderstorms also may form in the post-frontal upslope-flow regime near the Bighorns and offer severe hail/gusts eastward toward the western Black Hills. The most favorable environment for severe will be across parts of southern/central NE near a prominent moist axis, zone of warm frontogenesis, and also possibly differential heating (from the southern rim of morning clouds/precip). In this regime, backed flow and relatively maximized moisture will maximize both kinematic and thermodynamic parameters favorable for supercells. A corridor of 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints -- already apparent from eastern OK across western KS to western NE -- should shift northeastward through the day, eroded on the west side by heating/mixing (as per modifying the 12Z DDC RAOB) but reinforced father east through moist advection. That moisture, and strong diurnal heating, will support a narrow plume of MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. Locally large hodographs are expected in the backed surface winds, yielding effective SRH in the 250-450 J/kg range. Supercells with all severe hazards (including a few tornadoes and large hail) will be possible in that regime, especially with relatively discrete storms. Significant (2+ inch diameter) hail cannot be ruled out, but that threat may be mitigated somewhat by relatively warm temperatures aloft in the monsoonal moist plume. Upscale growth of early convection into lines an clusters is possible, both in the southern NE regime wherever activity becomes outflow-dominant before encountering the moisture plume, and farther north as a possible frontal/prefrontal QLCS. The most sustained potential for upscale evolution appears to be with the central/ southern NE activity shifting tonight into eastern NE, western IA and the Siouxland region, where inflow-layer moisture and instability should be greatest. As such, the potential for cold-pool-aided convective-gust enhancement remains represented by a significant-wind area inside the broader 15% unconditional wind line. If confidence increases in a specific MCS corridor, that probability may need to be raised in a succeeding outlook. ...Southeast... Widely scattered to scattered, multicellular thunderstorms are expected this afternoon between the frontal zone over GA/SC/AL on the north, and on the south, sea-breeze and differential-heating boundaries. The most intense cells will be capable of water-loaded downbursts near severe limits. A very moisture-rich boundary layer will persist across the region, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s F and PW near 2 inches. Strong surface heating will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to yield MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg. Low/middle-level flow and shear should be weak, though a belt of strong northerly to northeasterly winds in upper levels (near anvil level) may aid in storm organization. Severe potential should be isolated and pulse in nature, with short-lived, localized clustering possible, and should wane after sunset. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/01/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011144
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or two a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form mid- to late-week while it moves
west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 AM CDT Mon Jul 01 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Interior West today, encouraging surface low development near the Four Corners region. The result will be dry and breezy conditions characterized by 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds overlapping with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon across much of the Great Basin. Given drying fuels over much of the Basin, Elevated highlights have been maintained. An outside chance for a dry thunderstorm is also possible over portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho. However, modest fuel receptiveness, and low confidence in storm coverage, preclude isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ..Squitieri.. 07/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more