Aggregator

WW 0490 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW EEN TO 10 ESE AUG TO 50 S HUL. ..WEINMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-005-009-013-015-023-027-029-031-302240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND HANCOCK KNOX LINCOLN SAGADAHOC WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-302240- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN ANZ050-051-052-150-151-152-153-154-302240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 30 23:52:11 UTC 2024.

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-010040- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX DCC001-010040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-045-047-510-010040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT Read more

WW 491 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NC NJ VA CW 301920Z - 010300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 491 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 320 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Central and Southern Delaware Central and Eastern Maryland Northern North Carolina Southern New Jersey Northern, Central, and Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 320 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing while posing a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds as they move east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. The strongest gusts may reach 55-70 mph on a localized basis. Isolated hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter may also occur with the strongest thunderstorms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Dover DE to 15 miles southeast of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489...WW 490... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E BTM TO 30 WSW 3HT TO 45 W LWT. ..WEINMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC027-031-037-045-057-065-067-095-097-107-111-010040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FERGUS GALLATIN GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MADISON MUSSELSHELL PARK STILLWATER SWEET GRASS WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 492 SEVERE TSTM MT 302135Z - 010200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest into Central Montana * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop over southwest Montana and move east-northeast into central Montana late this afternoon into the evening. A couple of supercells are possible initially with an attendant risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and severe gusts. Upscale growth into a linear thunderstorm cluster is expected by early evening as storms move into the eastern parts of the Watch. Severe gusts 60-75 mph will be possible with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Bozeman MT to 50 miles north northeast of Billings MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489...WW 490...WW 491... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Smith Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 302325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form early this week a
few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form around midweek while it moves
west-northwestward between 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

MD 1499 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of central into southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302224Z - 302330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of strong/damaging gusts (45-55 mph) may occur in wet downbursts with the stronger storms. A 60+ mph gust cannot be ruled out, but the severe threat should be too isolated to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Cold pool mergers are occurring with congealing multicellular storms over central SC, and these storms are progressing southward amid a highly buoyant airmass. Over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE precedes the storms, which should foster continued propagation of strong updrafts on the leading edge of the southern moving cold pool. Wet downbursts may accompany the stronger storm cores, with damaging gusts possible. Nonetheless, vertical wind shear is weak, so the overall severe threat should be sparse, precluding a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 33668166 34078079 33847982 33537973 33318002 33138060 33018108 33098155 33668166 Read more

MD 1497 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1497 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302154Z - 302330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind and hail threats should persist along and east of the lee trough this evening. While a watch is uncertain over most of the region amid isolated to widely spaced storms and a relatively lower-end severe threat, we are monitoring for a small severe thunderstorm watch if greater storm concentration becomes apparent. DISCUSSION...Isolated, widely spaced thunderstorms have developed from northeast WY to southeast CO within the western plume of 50s surface dew points across the central High Plains. Thus far, a measured wind gust of 65 mph occurred with a cell crossing I-25 north of Cheyenne last hour, with a 1.5 inch hail report separately in Platte County, WY. Relatively greater buoyancy should be confined to the east-southeast CO portion amid low to mid 60s surface dew points across the Raton Mesa to Palmer Divide. Deep-layer shear was sampled at 30-35 kts per the Cheyenne and Denver VWP data, which will support transient supercell structures within the more robust updrafts. But relatively warm mid-level temperatures, especially across CO where -4 to -6 C at 500 mb is more prevalent, will probably limit hail sizes and parcel accelerations to some extent. Early afternoon guidance suggests convection within the CO portion may persist longer into the evening, aided by the larger buoyancy and modest increase in low-level flow. If in increase in clustering becomes more readily apparent, a small severe thunderstorm watch will be considered. ..Grams/Smith.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 44620455 41740348 38490288 37260406 37390522 38850539 39500498 41440497 43540522 44170528 44620455 Read more

MD 1498 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 491... FOR PORTION OF EASTERN MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA INTO DELAWARE
Mesoscale Discussion 1498 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0503 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...portion of eastern Maryland and Virginia into Delaware Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491... Valid 302203Z - 302330Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 491. Strong to severe wind gusts (50-65 mph) remain the primary threat with the stronger storms, though an instance of marginally severe (around 1 inch diameter) hail is also possible. DISCUSSION...Multicells and occasional transient supercells are in progress across eastern MD into DE and eastern VA, which have shown signs of intensification over the past couple of hours per latest MRMS mosaic radar data. Though deep-layer shear is not as strong as farther north (i.e. around 35 kts or so of bulk effective shear), this amount of shear is more than adequate given 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE in place. Regional radar data suggests these storms may be producing wet downbursts, so strong to severe gusts remain possible through the remainder of the afternoon, in additional to an instance or two of marginally severe hail. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36717934 38897732 39597624 39657519 39307463 38277485 37567537 36807598 36237654 36217772 36157892 36717934 Read more

MD 1496 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 489... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1496 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489... Valid 302141Z - 302315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489. Strong to locally severe wind gusts (50-65 mph) remain the primary threat, though a couple instances of hail also cannot be ruled out. The severe threat should gradually diminish as storms move offshore. DISCUSSION...Multiple organized thunderstorm clusters and short line segments continue eastward across portions of the Mid Atlantic. Some of the storms have a history of strong to severe wind gusts, and a 61 mph wind gust was recently measured in Camden County, NJ. These storms are benefiting from an adequately unstable and sheared airmass (i.e. 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE with 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear). Regional VADs show that mainly speed shear is present via elongated but nearly straight hodographs. As such, strong to severe multicells and short line segments should continue eastward with a strong gust/hail threat for at least a few more hours. Later this evening, the severe threat should wane when storms move offshore into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP... LAT...LON 39927667 40737523 40787423 40687356 40447336 40087339 39787437 39727547 39927667 Read more

WW 0492 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 492 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...TFX...BYZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 492 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC027-031-037-045-057-059-065-067-095-097-107-111-302340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FERGUS GALLATIN GOLDEN VALLEY JUDITH BASIN MADISON MEAGHER MUSSELSHELL PARK STILLWATER SWEET GRASS WHEATLAND YELLOWSTONE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0491 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 491 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1498 ..WEINMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 491 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-302340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX DCC001-302340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035- 037-039-041-045-047-510-302340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL Read more

MD 1495 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...east-central and southeastern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302045Z - 302245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity with potential for strong to severe wind to continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing across portions of southern and central Arizona this afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. This, in addition to steep low to mid-level lapse rates and modest mid-level flow, will result in a mix of cells and clusters with potential for strong to severe downburst winds and instances of small hail. This threat will likely remain localized and diminish after loss of daytime heating, precluding the need for a watch. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31881252 32961254 33931215 34281138 33901006 33390956 32870917 31380916 31321101 31881252 Read more

MD 1494 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1494 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Areas affected...southern and central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 302012Z - 302215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across portions of Montana with an increase in threat for damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage across southwestern Montana. Recent radar trends have shown an uptick in lightning activity. Daytime heating across Montana has led to temperatures in the mid to upper 70 to low 80s across southern, central, and eastern Montana. Surface objective analysis indicates steep low to mid-level lapse rates in an environment characterized by MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg. Instability is progged to increase through the afternoon, along with large scale lift as enhanced upper-level flow overspreads the region from the west. As a result, deep layer shear will also increase, aiding in more organized storms that will tend to grow upscale through time and pose a risk of damaging wind and some instances of large hail. Trends will be monitored, with potential for a watch to be needed in this region in the next 1-2 hrs. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...PIH...MSO... LAT...LON 45161317 46501182 47480909 47490759 46990707 45810612 45630624 45260973 45211076 44791177 44401275 44681314 45161317 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Mid-level ridging is forecast to amplify significantly over the Pacific Coast through the extended forecast period. As the ridge builds, stronger flow aloft will be shunted to the northeast over parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies through much of next week. While several perturbations will pass along the eastern periphery of the ridge, much of the Southwest will see extreme heat and dry conditions persist. Fire-weather concerns should increase through the period, especially as the upper ridge breaks down next weekend. ...Great Basin and Southwest... With ridge building through the first part of the extended period, very warm and dry surface conditions are likely to develop across parts of the Southwest. However, much of the stronger flow will remain displaced to the northeast, keeping surface winds modest through the first part of the work week. A slight increase in wind speeds is possible D4/Wed behind a dry cold front over parts of the northern Great Basin. 15-20 mph gusts and afternoon humidity of 10-20% could support several hours of near-critical fire-weather conditions within dry fuels. Flow aloft should weaken again toward the end of the week as the ridge temporarily strengthens. However, heading into the weekend, another weak trough should pass east of the ridge, potentially increasing dry and windy conditions over the Southwest. Through the reminder of the weekend into week 2, most guidance shows a decrease in ridge strength with a possible pattern shift toward western US troughing. Confidence in the result of this transition period remains very low as multiple model solutions are present. Some guidance shows an increase in showers and thunderstorm potential with increasing mid-level moisture, while others show a more substantial increase in hot, dry and windy conditions post ridging. Regardless of the outcome, an increase in fire-weather potential is very likely over parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, owing to the antecedent hot and dry period followed by ridge break down. ...CA... Beneath the upper ridge, extreme heat is expected over much of CA and the West Coast this week and into the weekend. While background winds should remain light, a low-level thermal trough may locally enhance dry and windy conditions across the northern and central parts of the state. A period of somewhat stronger northerly Sundowner winds may also develop D5/Thur into D6/Friday over southwest CA behind the weak trough passing to the east. While uncertain, locally higher fire-weather concerns could develop. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more