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Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 260832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 10 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 260832 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 123.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 125.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 127.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.4N 129.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.7N 131.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.8N 133.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 17.9N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 17.0N 146.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 260832 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HECTOR COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 123.9W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 123.9 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HECTOR COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Hector was located near 16.3, -123.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 260831 PWSEP2 HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 140W 34 X 12(12) 32(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) 20N 140W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 37(55) X(55) X(55) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18) 20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260831 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 This evening's satellite presentation consists of a ragged partially obscured eye with a small inner core open in the south semi-circle. Gilma's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate slowly and has shed most of the associated convective bands with the exception of fragmented curved band wrapping in from the south. The initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt and is based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and a blend of the UW-CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and DMINT objective estimates, yielding 83 kt. Water vapor imagery and global model RH/700mb fields indicate that the cyclone is moving toward a dry, stable air mass, indicative of a large low-level stratocumulus cloud deck intruding from the northwest in the GOES-18 Proxy-VIS images. Subsequently, the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS indicated a mid-level/700-500mb RH of 42 percent. This inhibiting thermodynamic contribution, along with increasing west-to-west-southwesterly shear noted in the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance, particularly beyond 36 hrs, should cause Gilma to weaken at a quicker rate through day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise of the Decay-SHIPS and the IVCN intensity consensus and shows Gilma degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone in 4 days. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/8 kt, and is moving in the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending westward across the tropical-eastern Pacific from northwestern Mexico. The global and regional models are fairly clustered together and indicate a slightly to the right of the initial track motion, or west-northwestward beyond the 60 hr period, and the official forecast follows suit. Along-track differences continue to be a model inconsistency, but following the skilled TVCE and HCCA consensus models have been the best track forecast solution so far. Gilma's 50 kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted based on a 0559 UTC METOP-C ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.1N 135.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.6N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 31/0600Z 21.6N 155.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260830 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 135SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.6N 151.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.6N 155.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260830 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 135.9W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Gilma was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 135.9 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days with some increase in forward speed Tuesday evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, Gilma is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches the central Pacific basin. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.1, -135.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to shift into the Northeast Wednesday, as a short-wave trough cresting the central and eastern U.S. ridge moves across the Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada -- partially merging with a more substantial trough crossing Quebec and moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, a strong upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region through the period. At the surface, a west-to-east quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from southern New England across the Midwest, while retreating northward as a warm front across the central and into the northern Plains. This retreat will occur as a cold front shifts into the northern Plains and western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening. By the end of the period, this cold front should extend from the eastern Dakotas to the central High Plains. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty with evolution of convection persists across the region at this time, as substantial model differences exist with respect to early-day/ongoing convection, as well as timing/position of synoptic features -- both surface and aloft. While the risk areas will likely require adjustment in subsequent outlooks, current indications are that storms should reintensify/develop during the afternoon as the airmass near and south of a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone becomes moderately unstable. The most favorable kinematic environment is expected to extend from lower Michigan to southern New England, but greater instability is expected westward across the Upper Ohio Valley and Midwest. As such, damaging winds would likely be the primary threat over northern and eastern portions of the region, with large hail potentially more prevalent into the Midwest. Storms -- and at least some severe risk -- will likely continue well into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours, spreading southeastward through the end of the period. ...Northern Plains... As the upper low advances eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northern Intermountain Region during the day, northward return of the surface baroclinic zone and associated moist low-level airmass into the Dakotas is expected to occur. Afternoon heating will support moderate destabilization, with storms expected to develop by late afternoon near the retreating baroclinic zone, and a cold front shifting across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas. While some risk for damaging winds may evolve, the main risk will likely be large hail -- particularly with elevated storms across North Dakota during the evening, and spreading into Minnesota overnight. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to shift into the Northeast Wednesday, as a short-wave trough cresting the central and eastern U.S. ridge moves across the Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada -- partially merging with a more substantial trough crossing Quebec and moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, a strong upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region through the period. At the surface, a west-to-east quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from southern New England across the Midwest, while retreating northward as a warm front across the central and into the northern Plains. This retreat will occur as a cold front shifts into the northern Plains and western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening. By the end of the period, this cold front should extend from the eastern Dakotas to the central High Plains. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty with evolution of convection persists across the region at this time, as substantial model differences exist with respect to early-day/ongoing convection, as well as timing/position of synoptic features -- both surface and aloft. While the risk areas will likely require adjustment in subsequent outlooks, current indications are that storms should reintensify/develop during the afternoon as the airmass near and south of a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone becomes moderately unstable. The most favorable kinematic environment is expected to extend from lower Michigan to southern New England, but greater instability is expected westward across the Upper Ohio Valley and Midwest. As such, damaging winds would likely be the primary threat over northern and eastern portions of the region, with large hail potentially more prevalent into the Midwest. Storms -- and at least some severe risk -- will likely continue well into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours, spreading southeastward through the end of the period. ...Northern Plains... As the upper low advances eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northern Intermountain Region during the day, northward return of the surface baroclinic zone and associated moist low-level airmass into the Dakotas is expected to occur. Afternoon heating will support moderate destabilization, with storms expected to develop by late afternoon near the retreating baroclinic zone, and a cold front shifting across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas. While some risk for damaging winds may evolve, the main risk will likely be large hail -- particularly with elevated storms across North Dakota during the evening, and spreading into Minnesota overnight. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to shift into the Northeast Wednesday, as a short-wave trough cresting the central and eastern U.S. ridge moves across the Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada -- partially merging with a more substantial trough crossing Quebec and moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, a strong upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region through the period. At the surface, a west-to-east quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from southern New England across the Midwest, while retreating northward as a warm front across the central and into the northern Plains. This retreat will occur as a cold front shifts into the northern Plains and western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening. By the end of the period, this cold front should extend from the eastern Dakotas to the central High Plains. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty with evolution of convection persists across the region at this time, as substantial model differences exist with respect to early-day/ongoing convection, as well as timing/position of synoptic features -- both surface and aloft. While the risk areas will likely require adjustment in subsequent outlooks, current indications are that storms should reintensify/develop during the afternoon as the airmass near and south of a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone becomes moderately unstable. The most favorable kinematic environment is expected to extend from lower Michigan to southern New England, but greater instability is expected westward across the Upper Ohio Valley and Midwest. As such, damaging winds would likely be the primary threat over northern and eastern portions of the region, with large hail potentially more prevalent into the Midwest. Storms -- and at least some severe risk -- will likely continue well into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours, spreading southeastward through the end of the period. ...Northern Plains... As the upper low advances eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northern Intermountain Region during the day, northward return of the surface baroclinic zone and associated moist low-level airmass into the Dakotas is expected to occur. Afternoon heating will support moderate destabilization, with storms expected to develop by late afternoon near the retreating baroclinic zone, and a cold front shifting across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas. While some risk for damaging winds may evolve, the main risk will likely be large hail -- particularly with elevated storms across North Dakota during the evening, and spreading into Minnesota overnight. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to shift into the Northeast Wednesday, as a short-wave trough cresting the central and eastern U.S. ridge moves across the Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada -- partially merging with a more substantial trough crossing Quebec and moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, a strong upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region through the period. At the surface, a west-to-east quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from southern New England across the Midwest, while retreating northward as a warm front across the central and into the northern Plains. This retreat will occur as a cold front shifts into the northern Plains and western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening. By the end of the period, this cold front should extend from the eastern Dakotas to the central High Plains. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty with evolution of convection persists across the region at this time, as substantial model differences exist with respect to early-day/ongoing convection, as well as timing/position of synoptic features -- both surface and aloft. While the risk areas will likely require adjustment in subsequent outlooks, current indications are that storms should reintensify/develop during the afternoon as the airmass near and south of a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone becomes moderately unstable. The most favorable kinematic environment is expected to extend from lower Michigan to southern New England, but greater instability is expected westward across the Upper Ohio Valley and Midwest. As such, damaging winds would likely be the primary threat over northern and eastern portions of the region, with large hail potentially more prevalent into the Midwest. Storms -- and at least some severe risk -- will likely continue well into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours, spreading southeastward through the end of the period. ...Northern Plains... As the upper low advances eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northern Intermountain Region during the day, northward return of the surface baroclinic zone and associated moist low-level airmass into the Dakotas is expected to occur. Afternoon heating will support moderate destabilization, with storms expected to develop by late afternoon near the retreating baroclinic zone, and a cold front shifting across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas. While some risk for damaging winds may evolve, the main risk will likely be large hail -- particularly with elevated storms across North Dakota during the evening, and spreading into Minnesota overnight. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to shift into the Northeast Wednesday, as a short-wave trough cresting the central and eastern U.S. ridge moves across the Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada -- partially merging with a more substantial trough crossing Quebec and moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, a strong upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region through the period. At the surface, a west-to-east quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from southern New England across the Midwest, while retreating northward as a warm front across the central and into the northern Plains. This retreat will occur as a cold front shifts into the northern Plains and western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening. By the end of the period, this cold front should extend from the eastern Dakotas to the central High Plains. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty with evolution of convection persists across the region at this time, as substantial model differences exist with respect to early-day/ongoing convection, as well as timing/position of synoptic features -- both surface and aloft. While the risk areas will likely require adjustment in subsequent outlooks, current indications are that storms should reintensify/develop during the afternoon as the airmass near and south of a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone becomes moderately unstable. The most favorable kinematic environment is expected to extend from lower Michigan to southern New England, but greater instability is expected westward across the Upper Ohio Valley and Midwest. As such, damaging winds would likely be the primary threat over northern and eastern portions of the region, with large hail potentially more prevalent into the Midwest. Storms -- and at least some severe risk -- will likely continue well into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours, spreading southeastward through the end of the period. ...Northern Plains... As the upper low advances eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northern Intermountain Region during the day, northward return of the surface baroclinic zone and associated moist low-level airmass into the Dakotas is expected to occur. Afternoon heating will support moderate destabilization, with storms expected to develop by late afternoon near the retreating baroclinic zone, and a cold front shifting across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas. While some risk for damaging winds may evolve, the main risk will likely be large hail -- particularly with elevated storms across North Dakota during the evening, and spreading into Minnesota overnight. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected across portions of the Midwest and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic area, and over portions of the northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to shift into the Northeast Wednesday, as a short-wave trough cresting the central and eastern U.S. ridge moves across the Great Lakes region and southeastern Canada -- partially merging with a more substantial trough crossing Quebec and moving into the Canadian Maritimes. Upstream, a strong upper low is forecast to move eastward across the Canadian Prairie and adjacent northern Intermountain Region through the period. At the surface, a west-to-east quasi-stationary front is forecast to extend from southern New England across the Midwest, while retreating northward as a warm front across the central and into the northern Plains. This retreat will occur as a cold front shifts into the northern Plains and western Nebraska during the afternoon and evening. By the end of the period, this cold front should extend from the eastern Dakotas to the central High Plains. ...Midwest to southern New England, and south across the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic... Uncertainty with evolution of convection persists across the region at this time, as substantial model differences exist with respect to early-day/ongoing convection, as well as timing/position of synoptic features -- both surface and aloft. While the risk areas will likely require adjustment in subsequent outlooks, current indications are that storms should reintensify/develop during the afternoon as the airmass near and south of a west-to-east surface baroclinic zone becomes moderately unstable. The most favorable kinematic environment is expected to extend from lower Michigan to southern New England, but greater instability is expected westward across the Upper Ohio Valley and Midwest. As such, damaging winds would likely be the primary threat over northern and eastern portions of the region, with large hail potentially more prevalent into the Midwest. Storms -- and at least some severe risk -- will likely continue well into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours, spreading southeastward through the end of the period. ...Northern Plains... As the upper low advances eastward across the Canadian Prairie and northern Intermountain Region during the day, northward return of the surface baroclinic zone and associated moist low-level airmass into the Dakotas is expected to occur. Afternoon heating will support moderate destabilization, with storms expected to develop by late afternoon near the retreating baroclinic zone, and a cold front shifting across the northern High Plains into the Dakotas. While some risk for damaging winds may evolve, the main risk will likely be large hail -- particularly with elevated storms across North Dakota during the evening, and spreading into Minnesota overnight. ..Goss.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify and traverse the northern Rockies tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging strong surface gradient winds over the Pacific Northwest in response to a deepening surface lee trough. Dry and windy conditions are likely along and to the lee of the Cascades, where fuels are at least modestly receptive to wildfire spread. Here, 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds may overlap with dry fuels and 15-25 percent RH for at least a few hours. As such, Elevated highlights have been added to address the regionally favorable wildfire-spread threat. ..Squitieri.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more