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MD 1996 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST WY...SOUTHEAST MT...WESTERN SD...AND WESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1996 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...northeast WY...southeast MT...western SD...and western NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261715Z - 261915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next few hours across eastern Wyoming into far southeast Montana, western South Dakota and western Nebraska. Large hail and severe wind gusts possible with this activity. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the region in the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...A strong mid/upper trough will continue to eject east/northeast across WY/MT this afternoon, providing ample large-scale ascent for thunderstorm development. Boundary-layer moisture will remain modest, but cool temperatures aloft/steep lapse rates will foster MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective shear greater than 40 kt will favor organized updrafts, with a mix of supercells and line segments possible. Elongated/straight hodographs combined with a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will support large hail, with some potential for isolated hail stones in the 2-3 inch diameter range in the strongest cells. Additional heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates, enhancing severe gust potential, particularly across parts of eastern WY into far southwest SD and northwest NE, where a few gusts greater than 70 mph are possible. Some uncertainty exists on the north/east extent of severe potential as morning convection across central SD has left lingering cloud cover while reinforcing a more southward position of a surface baroclinic zone near the SD/NE border. Nevertheless, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD area within the next couple of hours. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 44420658 45310621 45620539 45600423 45250310 44400151 43620098 42350143 41960182 41650245 41570361 41790478 42240588 43870665 44420658 Read more

MD 1997 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1997 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261735Z - 261900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Initial storm development in central Minnesota may be elevated to marginally surface based and struggle against residual capping. Should storms mature, large hail and wind damage are possible. A watch is possible, but this will depend on trends in convective evolution. DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in west-central Minnesota, likely aided by weak warm advection at lower levels. This mornings soundings from Aberdeen/Minneapolis showed a warm nose within the 850-700 mb layer. It appears that convection is struggling to intensify/organize with this capping in place. Furthermore, large-scale ascent is currently weak. Should this activity mature, large hail and isolated wind damage would be possible. Short-term guidance is not consistent in how this activity will evolve, with some suggesting it will weaken in the next few hours and others showing cold pool development that spurs new convection farther south where greater buoyancy resides. From a large-scale perspective, greater ascent/mid-level cooling is not expected until later in the afternoon, though an MCV moving through eastern South Dakota could potentially supplement ascent locally earlier. The most probable scenario is that more robust convection will develop by mid/late afternoon near an area of surface convergence in central Minnesota. The need for a watch in the short term is uncertain; however, trends will continue to be closely monitored this afternoon. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 45449550 45369626 45559646 46069663 46529636 47109448 46939347 46459331 45849401 45449550 Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998 ..WENDT..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-261940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 261940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-011-013-015-261940- Read more

WW 0648 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998 ..WENDT..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-261940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 261940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-011-013-015-261940- Read more

The removal of drought-damaged trees along Natchez Parkway began on Monday, August 26 around the towns of Clinton, Ridgeland and Madison. Prolonged drought allowed pine beetles to infest and kill many trees in 2023. The trees, many of which were loblolly pines, were being felled and allowed to decompose and provide habitat for wildlife. The tree removal was expected to be completed by the end of September. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Aug 26, 2024

MD 1995 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1995 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Areas affected...portions of New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261551Z - 261745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and hail around 1-1.5 inch diameter through the afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and intensity at midday as strong heating occurs across a seasonally moist airmass. The 12z RAOB from ALB indicated modestly steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km amid 30 kt 0-6 km northwesterly flow. Cool midlevel temperatures contributing modest instability, and elongated/straight hodographs suggest large hail will be possible with stronger cells. Effective shear magnitudes will be somewhat marginal for longer-lived well-organized updrafts, and convection may be somewhat pulse-like. As additional heating occurs, steepening low-level lapse rates also may support sporadic strong/locally damaging gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance for portions of the MCD area, with somewhat greater watch potential focused across southern New England this afternoon. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 42417333 43477307 43887195 44077104 44017041 43706991 42857006 41637019 41037123 40527256 40627289 41347314 42417333 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday, primarily across the Great Lakes region and portions of the Midwest. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will progress steadily east across the Great Lakes region on Tuesday as an associated cold front moves south across the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. A strong upper low will move across the Pacific Northwest, while an expansive upper-level anticyclone remains centered in the vicinity of the mid-Mississippi Valley. ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest and portions of the OH Valley/Northeast... Thunderstorms may be in progress across portions of WI/MI Upper Peninsula at 12z Tuesday, aided by low-level warm advection in advance of the upper-level trough. Substantial destabilization (MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) is expected to develop by afternoon in advance of the cold front, reinforced by convective outflows from early day storms. Although the front should move south of the stronger mid-level flow before becoming quasi-stationary, sufficient shear should be in place to support organized storms including a mix of multicell and supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to develop or intensify across eastern/southern WI/lower MI during the afternoon, as well as farther south along the front across IA and eventually the northeast KS vicinity. Aided by modest southwest/west mid-level flow, storms should move east and merge into one or more clusters with time posing a risk for damaging gusts as the primary severe hazard. Isolated instances of large hail will also be possible with the strongest updrafts. The potential does exist for a corridor of greater coverage of damaging winds Tuesday afternoon/evening, but uncertainty remains on the location given the effects of early storms and varied hi-res guidance solutions. This potential will be addressed in future outlooks. ..Bunting.. 08/26/2024 Read more